Horse racing betting question

[darren_j]

As there a lot of you who seem to like your betting I was wondering if you could verify the likelihood of the following: (I have no knowlege of horse racing in general by the way so sorry if this is a stupid question)

Bank roll of 15 pts
Each bet is always a pt and is to win (not be placed)
Average of 30 bets a week on English races
Average strike rate (sorry if this is incorrect terminology) of 4/1 (think this is for the two sort of racing seasons combined)
Average profit of 5-6 pts a week
Longest ever losing run is 7 races, (losing run was all for predicting winners and not to be placed)

Any help would be appreciated and sorry if the above doesn't make sense, but I think I've explained it properly.

[bern5161]

Do you have to pay up front for the tips?

[darren_j]

It's a work colleague who claims the above and he won't charge for the tips for a year to prove the validity of them before then charging a fee. So obviously I can't really lose, but I was intrigued to see what the general consenus of those who do bet on the horses thought.

Originally posted by bern5161
Do you have to pay up front for the tips?

[KevTheOptimist]

If he is the infamous "diamond mine" thread starter then I would say you have a lot to lose

[darren_j]

Yes I read that with great amusement. I'm quite confident that purewinners is not my boss!

Originally posted by KevTheOptimist
If he is the infamous "diamond mine" thread starter then I would say you have a lot to lose

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

Originally posted by darren_j
As there a lot of you who seem to like your betting I was wondering if you could verify the likelihood of the following: (I have no knowlege of horse racing in general by the way so sorry if this is a stupid question)

Bank roll of 15 pts
Each bet is always a pt and is to win (not be placed)
Average of 30 bets a week on English races
Average strike rate (sorry if this is incorrect terminology) of 4/1 (think this is for the two sort of racing seasons combined)
Average profit of 5-6 pts a week
Longest ever losing run is 7 races, (losing run was all for predicting winners and not to be placed)

Any help would be appreciated and sorry if the above doesn't make sense, but I think I've explained it properly.

Its crap, how can you have 30 bets a week at an average of 4/1 and still only make 5 or 6 points profit?!

[darren_j]

Sorry I should have been more specific. He makes 30 predictions and that is where his points average per week is calculated from. Once he reaches the 6 point target for the week he stops betting so it generally is achieved after a day or two.

I haven't worked out if this actually minimises the risk you expose yourself to. I guess if you achieve a certain points average on a weekly basis with pretty good consistency (with x amount of bets) then it would make sense to stop once you reach the total instead of making further bets which on average would leave you with the same points total.

Anyway I'm not sure if what I wrote there makes any sense, but does it seem plausible now or not?

Originally posted by LLCOOLSTEVE
Its crap, how can you have 30 bets a week at an average of 4/1 and still only make 5 or 6 points profit?!

[Gooders]

Originally posted by LLCOOLSTEVE
Its crap, how can you have 30 bets a week at an average of 4/1 and still only make 5 or 6 points profit?!

Perhaps it means a winner every 4 bets on average?

Although I reckon you do better than that!

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

Originally posted by Gooders
Perhaps it means a winner every 4 bets on average?

Although I reckon you do better than that!

Thanks :) But I have to sit down and study the form to do that, being stuck at work means I dont have the time.....

Perhaps I should try it in my spare time and see what sort of win ratio I get......although the top punters only have very few bets a month, generally on a very large scale though!

[Drunk eagle]

If this is something that really interests you you should follow his results for a month or so and see how his tips have done and then go from there. If you are happy then bet on his tips if not don't. It's been said alot of times before but it is worth bearing in mind that you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. Personally I love betting on the horses but would never take anyone elses tips (half the fun is finding the winners yourself :) )

[darren_j]

Small problem, I know nothing about horse racing. :)

Originally posted by Drunk eagle
Personally I love betting on the horses but would never take anyone elses tips (half the fun is finding the winners yourself :) )

[Drunk eagle]

Originally posted by darren_j
Small problem, I know nothing about horse racing. :)

Well then basically you've got to decided whether you trust him to win money for you. With absolutely no knowledge yourself do you really trust him to make you money?

[selhurst star]

Total crap. So he can make 33% profit on his bank per week? Laugh at him so loud that his ears fall off. People who gamble for a living do so on the basis of making 2-8ish % of turnover over a year! Billy bullcrapper is pulling your plonker, if he could do what he says, he WOULD NOT, repeat, WOULD NOT be your WORK colleague.

[darren_j]

Fair point, but anyway no harm in me taking the tips on board and using a virtual bank roll to see the outcome.

Originally posted by selhurst star
Total crap. So he can make 33% profit on his bank per week? Laugh at him so loud that his ears fall off. People who gamble for a living do so on the basis of making 2-8ish % of turnover over a year! Billy bullcrapper is pulling your plonker, if he could do what he says, he WOULD NOT, repeat, WOULD NOT be your WORK colleague.

[ozeagle]

why take tips on horses from anyone.

the game is impossible.

the only way you'll make money is by

a.) being in the know .01% of the punting population
b.) using discipline and speed and pace ratings

considering the % the tote takes (or bookies) AND having to pay for tips, you're already behind 25%, not to mention the dubious intent of the evil little men that ride them (all are corrupt).

be music to my ears if that c unt fallon ended up in a "tragic accident".

[Men At Work]

Originally posted by darren_j
It's a work colleague who claims the above and he won't charge for the tips for a year to prove the validity of them before then charging a fee. So obviously I can't really lose

Apart from your stake. Which I imagine he will suggest recovering by doubling the size of your next stake. If it's a sure-fire winner of a system just ask him to cut out the middle-man and give you the profit minus his cut. I'm sure he'll accept that before he jumps into his Ferrari to get to his private Lear jet for a flight to his chalet in St Moritz.

[ozeagle]

where he'll join his bookmaking mates.

:)

[darren_j]

:)

Originally posted by Men At Work
Apart from your stake. Which I imagine he will suggest recovering by doubling the size of your next stake. If it's a sure-fire winner of a system just ask him to cut out the middle-man and give you the profit minus his cut. I'm sure he'll accept that before he jumps into his Ferrari to get to his private Lear jet for a flight to his chalet in St Moritz.