Betfair trading

[Finbar]

Right, new thread on this for those who like trading, either in running or not, on Betfair. Purpose of this thread is to

1. Discuss strategies
2. Alert for good trading opportunities
3. Discuss recent successes failures

That's all I can think of right now...

[Finbar]

I tried this strategy with small stakes on three of last night's (Wednesday 28th Oct) games with strong home favourites - Chelsea, Man City and Celtic. Backed all three at 12pm. Managed to lay them off at 1% below the 'backed' price. Laid Chelsea manually at 6.30pm. Had to log off Betfair at 6.40pm, at that time Man City and Celtic prices were above the price I had bet at, so I left a 'lay' bet to run. The Celtic 'lay' was matched at 7.25pm (before kick off) and the Man City one at 7.50pm (after the game had started and Man City had taken a 1-0 lead).

In the event, Chelsea and Man City won, Celtic lost, and the result was that I actually made 1% on Chelsea, 1% on Man City, and came out even on Celtic. But if Man City hadn't won the game, I might have lost my stake on the City bet. I suppose to be safe, I would have stayed on Betfar, watched the price, and closed the Man City bet before the match. I might have had to lay off at higher than my bet price though, which would have lost me a few percent on that one.

I think it's definitely worth trading out before kick off, one early goal the wrong way and you can ruin everything, the idea is that this is low risk so you have to accept that some trades you will have to take a small hit. Having Betfair on your mobile makes it a lot easier to wait till the last minute to do that though.

In the end I did have a trade on the Man City game, having failed to get the price I wanted (1.26) I eventually backed them at 1.23 at got out at 1.22 for £370 for £3 profit, not great and I probably shouldn't have got involved in the first place but was convinced that once City announced their side their odds were going to come in, I could probably have got 1.21 but wanted 1.19 or better

I backed Murphy in the snooker tonight last night at 1.78, 1.79 and 1.8, looks like I should have waited as he's since been matched at 1.84 but am hoping he comes in to 1.75. Can see a lot of people wanting to oppose Hendry

[hoopsmccan]

Great idea for a thread, Finbar.

As I mentioned, I have been using Betfair for horseracing. The system you used on the City game is known as "scalping" and it means that you can back and lay the same selection for the same stake, as long as the odds on the "lay" side are lower than on the "back" side. You will make money if the selection wins, but will not lose anything if it loses. It's a free bet.

Still studying the system and doing small scalps until I get used to it.

[Brett]

I can't see the point in scalping as you're still dependant on the outcome of the event.

[hoopsmccan]

I can't see the point in scalping as you're still dependant on the outcome of the event.

Free betting innit. Why risk money? :p

[Louis]

I think it's definitely worth trading out before kick off, one early goal the wrong way and you can ruin everything.
I can see that if you a small number of bets and aim to make 1-2% on each one, you only need to come a cropper on one and you would take a big overall hit. Perhaps it would be best to spread the risk over a number of bets and monitor them carefully to make sure that everything is laid off ('traded out') before the event.

[Louis]

I can't see the point in scalping as you're still dependant on the outcome of the event.
I thought you used this system Brett?

[Finbar]

Am guessing Brett trades out to have even greens so doesn't care what the outcome is. It's just limiting variation and shouldn't make much, if any, difference over time really.

Guess the free bet method at least gives you something to cheer on but I'll be greening out I think

[Louis]

As long as you can engineer a 'no-lose- position in the vast majority of bets, and minimise your losses where you have them, then I don't think it makes a difference whether you stand to gain, say 2% one side and zero the other, or 1% on either. As you say, over time it shouldn't matter.

[Finbar]

I backed Murphy in the snooker tonight last night at 1.78, 1.79 and 1.8, looks like I should have waited as he's since been matched at 1.84 but am hoping he comes in to 1.75. Can see a lot of people wanting to oppose Hendry

Lowered my sights to 1.77 and had that matched for a 1% profit, now trying to back Murphy again at 1.78 as I think he'll come down still further, looks very much the kind of market with enough liquidity to keep recycling back / lay bets for a good proft, he'll probably drift and stay there now I've said that :clown:

[hoopsmccan]

Am guessing Brett trades out to have even greens so doesn't care what the outcome is. It's just limiting variation and shouldn't make much, if any, difference over time really.

Guess the free bet method at least gives you something to cheer on but I'll be greening out I think

Yep. I have started greening out.

Still get a return albeit small, but there is no risk of losing or even breaking even. How it works - I don't know. But it does.

[cpfc4evandeva]

I've done this stuff a few times.

I do have to ask though, how do you guys look for stuff that you think will come in? Is it just simply by back the favourite and hoping the odds come down?

[Brett]

You need to be able to spot steamers and drifters but you're more than helped by the graphs Betfair provide. A good starting point would be to look at the projected SP and gauge whether the bet is overpriced or underpriced (for example, SP is 2.00 but current best offering is 2.50 or above).

[Brett]

And don't forget that if you have enough money behind you to begin with, just distort the market in your favour.

[Finbar]

Yeah distorting the market on smaller ones is possible, does carry the risk that if it correct itself quickly you might have taken too short odds

Just put in a request to back United at 1.2, if matched am sure I can lay it at 1.19 or better for a 0.8%ish quick win (probably won't get it matched till Saturday now and have my money tied up till then!)

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

The best market for trading in my experience is the correct score market on strong home team favs.... for example Man Utd at home to Pompey

Bet on 2-0, 3-0, 4-0... then when first goal is scored lay off so all green.... it works most of the time anyways :)

[cpfc4evandeva]

The best market for trading in my experience is the correct score market on strong home team favs.... for example Man Utd at home to Pompey

Bet on 2-0, 3-0, 4-0... then when first goal is scored lay off so all green.... it works most of the time anyways :)

Sightly screwed if Pompey were to score though :D

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

but unlikely :)

As with any trading you have to take a stand at one point

[Brett]

You're all mental - horse racing is where it's at.

If you're doing football, play the first goal markets and use statistics to help with the rest. :)

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

The only horse racing id trust for serious trading profit potential would be group races, and Ive made quite a bit of money just from backing horses

[Brett]

The only horse racing id trust for serious trading profit potential would be group races, and Ive made quite a bit of money just from backing horses

You can make money easily on any UK race if you're happy with 5% before commission. Too much liquidity not to be able to make money.

Also, it's surprisingly easy to make money on donkeys.

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

You can make money easily on any UK race if you're happy with 5% before commission. Too much liquidity not to be able to make money.

Also, it's surprisingly easy to make money on donkeys.


if you have a large enough starting bank then yes, lay them to high heaven

[ozeagle]

You're all mental - horse racing is where it's at.


spot on.
all about homework and IR.
sadly in Oz, only IR for now on city races (top class)
once they move to ALL meetings, i'll coin it and some.

:p

[Louis]

Well, not being into horse-racing, but being into football, I tried the 'back and lay' pre-event trading ("scalping"?) on nine matches that were played yesterday (Saturday 31st Oct 2009).

The original back bets were placed 2-3 days beforehand. The plan was to stake £10 each on a number of favourites, back them first and then leave a 'lay' bet for 2% below the 'backed' stake. EG. Back at 1.5, lay at 1.48. As long as the lay bet was taken (i.e. the price on the favourite team declined by 3% - 4%, allowing for the spread), this would produce a 2% return on all bets that won, and no loss on those that didn't. I hoped to lay off all bets at 2% margin, and if half of them came in I would make a 1% return with a guarantee of no loss. I was determined to lay off all bets before the event started to avoid the risk of losing my stake instead of just the margin. I still faced the risk that the price might move against me and I might lose on some (i.e. I would have to lay off at a price higher than my backed price).

This is what happened ...

£10 staked on the following 9 favourites:


AC Milan (home to Parma)
Backed 1.62
Laid 1.62
Result = Milan win
Profit = NIL


Juventus (home to Napoli)
Backed 1.6
Laid 1.58
Result = Juventus lose
Profit = NIL


Barcelona (away to Osasuna)
Backed 1.48
Laid 1.48
Result = Barcelona win
Profit = NIL


Real Madrid (home to Getafe)
Backed 1.52
Laid 1.5
Result = Real Madrid win
Profit = .19


Middlesborough (home to Plymouth)
Backed 1.5
Laid 1.48
Result = Middlesborough lose
Profit - NIL


Leeds (home to Yeovil)
Backed 1.44
Laid 1.42
Result = Leeds win
Profit = .19


Liverpool (away to Fulham)
Backed 1.94
Laid 1.92
Result = Liverpool lost
Profit = NIL


Chelsea (away to Bolton)
Backed 1.47
Laid 1.45
Result - Chelsea win
Profit after commission = .19


Man United (home to Blackburn)
Backed 1.19
Laid 1.24
Result = Man United win
Loss = .50


Total Stake = £70

Total Return = £70.07

Profit = 7p (0.1%)


Analysis

9 selections

6 won
3 lost

6 were backed and laid at 2% potential profit if they won
2 were laid off at NIL profit
1 was laid off at 5% potential loss if they won

Won 2% on 3 of 9
Lost 5% on 1 of 9
Even on the remaining 5


Conclusion

Instead of making the 1% I hoped for (70p on my £70), I actually made 0.1% (7p). This was largely because I lost on Man United - without this 50p loss, I would have made 0.8% (57p) instead of 0.1% (7p). Man United also offered the worst odds (of around 1.2).

All comments welcome! :vader:

[Finbar]

Louis, my first comment would be that those returns are incredibly small and might make you lose interest very quickly, I am now trying to increase my bank by 30 to 40% a month (maybe more once I get the hang of this), would have been successful in October but for the Chelsea disaster that cost me £95, oh well hopefully Nov will be better.

Rather than pick 7 games and just blindly back or lay I would sooner pick one game where either the price looked wrong or the weight of money indicated it might change in your favour.

Had another great X Factor last night boosting my bank by 4% which is a good start to the month.

By the way if you're trading any two outcome event (tennis / snooker etc but not football as that also has the draw as an option) then you have to use Betfair Mobile and here's why.

Decided that Murray was too long at 1.07-1.08 for his match tomorrow and am expecting / hoping for the price to come in to 1.05-1.06, clearly though it's important to get matched at 1.08 as if I can am pretty sure (barring any injury scares) that the worst outcome possible will be to not lose anything.

At 7am this morning there was £7k ahead of me to get matched at 1.08 and with the match tomorrow that would take a long time (unless the market shifted to 1.08-1.09). If you chose to lay Traver at 13.5 (the same as backing Murray at 1.08) then it looks as though there is over £600 ahead of you but this is not the case. Betfair crossmatches so if someone puts in a back at 1.08 in a 2 player market then a lay request at 13.5 automatically pops up though first priority will always go to people who actually ask to lay at 13.5 (similarly they would go to the back of the queue to get matched at a back of 1.08)

However, if you look at the market on the Betfair mobile product then the cross matching bets do not show up. That showed that at the time there was only £3 waiting to lay at 13.5. Laterly somone put up a lay at 14.0 but this got matched very quickly (people would rather lay at 14.0 than back at 1.07 which was the alternative). So that soon dissapeared and now my bet is in the process of being matched. I then need to decide whether to lay Murray at 1.07 or below or back Traver at 14.0 or bigger to guarantee a profit. Having said all that Murray will probably drift!!

Not sure if the above is clear but it's a very handy strategy to get longer prices matched in two horse races whether or not you are doing it to trade at a later date or not

[hoopsmccan]

In a two-horse-race (ie football), I don't think you get the swing in the odds that you can get on the horses, Louis. For example, Oddschecker on Friday had a horse gone from 20/1 down to 5/1 (21.0 to 6.0) before the off.

By the way, Iphone has an application which allows you to place bets on Betfair whilst out and about. Called "Betfeather".

[Finbar]

That's true you don't, jumping on the back of horse gambles (or drifts) could be very good but am trying to steer clear of horses for now as the markets are a lot more volatile and require a lot more monitoring. If I horse has been backed in to 5/1 from 20/1 then there is no reason to think it will go to 4/1.
Numerous times I've taken a price on a gambled horse only to then see it go out again

If I can increase my bank by 1.5% a day with close to zero risk then for now am happy with that. Also when you find the right market you can back and lay continually for a lot more than your bank which is very satisfying indeed!

Markets with good liquidity but lots of gaps in the market (X Factor eviction or bottom two markets on Sundays is a great example) are easy pickings, just need to find more of those, horse racing on the morning of the meeting could be good and will certainly look into that at a later date.

[Brett]

Live ODI cricket is worth a look.

[Louis]

Louis, my first comment would be that those returns are incredibly small and might make you lose interest very quickly, I am now trying to increase my bank by 30 to 40% a month (maybe more once I get the hang of this), would have been successful in October but for the Chelsea disaster that cost me £95, oh well hopefully Nov will be better.

Rather than pick 7 games and just blindly back or lay I would sooner pick one game where either the price looked wrong or the weight of money indicated it might change in your favour.
Cheers for the rely Finbar. The thing is, I follow football anyway, Palace of course ;) , and football in general. The thing I like best about the back-and-lay pre-event thing is, it seems to be relatively hard to lose money. By making money on the margin, it seems that we're sort of doing what bookmakers do, and Betfair's small margins and large number of customers give room for this. So far, I've only gained tiny amounts, but I haven't actually lost. You say you're aiming for 30-40% return per month, but even one tenth of this (3%-4% per month) would quickly mount up over time. One thing I'm wondering is: is it always better to back first, then lay, and if not when should you lay first?

[Finbar]

3-4% a month is too small to keep my interest, am also putting in about £150 a month to boost my bank so it 'should' be a good way to save money, am determined never to let a bet go in play again though. If I can hit some good weeks then doubling my bank over a month should be possible, problem with setting that kind of a target is that you end up making trades which are more based on guesswork rather than with confidence of making a profit.

Backing or laying first? It is certainly a lot more lucrative laying first (if odds on, backing first if odds against) as you can work with much bigger sums.

If your bank is £50 and you see a 1.05 shot which you think will drift then you can lay it for say £1000 to only risk an initial outlay of £50 (to then back it at 1.06 for say £990 for £9 profit), if you think it's going to come in then of course you can only back it for £50 before laying at 1.04 (for £50.50 to make 48p) you're clearly going to make a lot less.

Unfortunately I think it is generally a lot easier to spot a fav that will come in than one which will drift. Even if a 1.05 looks like it might drift you often have big players coming in and moving the price in (as happened when I laid Chelsea at 1.2 when it looked like it would drift), that happens a lot more than them coming in laying the fav and moving the price out.

Mind you I dodged a bullet at the weekend when my United bet at 1.2ish wasn't matched so I cancelled it, later saw that they drifted to 1.24. I think teams like Chelsea / Man City are a lot better to back with a view to laying later as their squads (especially Chelsea) have so much more cover. I imagine the United drift was to do with the uncertainty over Vidic and Ferdinand.

My Murray trade has stalled somewhat, have £300 waiting to be match at 1.07 (which I'm sure it will eventually and there is still £000's wanting to back him at 1.08) but imagine that as the live tennis action has started no one is looking at that market, oh well am sure it'll be matched later on tonight, got some more matched at 14.0 on Traver so should make £4 or £5 (1.25% ish of bank) so even if I don't get any more 14.0 lays matched on Traver which hopefully I can as am confident anything I put up at 1.07 to lay on Murray will be matched.

Think all this is definitely a case of learning which the low risk and profitable ones are, am looking forward to seeing if X Factor is as lucrative as it appears to be next week

[Louis]

I dodged a bullet at the weekend when my United bet at 1.2ish wasn't matched so I cancelled it, later saw that they drifted to 1.24. I think teams like Chelsea / Man City are a lot better to back with a view to laying later as their squads (especially Chelsea) have so much more cover. I imagine the United drift was to do with the uncertainty over Vidic and Ferdinand
Man United is interesting. They cost me last week, because they were the only team where the odds drifted out rather than coming in, thus wiping out nearly all my profit. Yesterday I backed Chelsea, Barcelona and Man United for this week's Champions League games. Chelsea and Barcelona odds have already come down to match my lower 'lay', but once again Man United have drifted out and threaten to wipe out my profit. Maybe you get a lot of people backing Man United early, and then the price corrects itself later? Maybe Man United could be one to lay first?

[Louis]

You can make money easily on any UK race if you're happy with 5% before commission. Too much liquidity not to be able to make money.

Also, it's surprisingly easy to make money on donkeys.
Several of you claim it's 'easy' to make money on horse-racing, and you mention:

Having a large bank
Laying 'donkeys'
Monitoring races 'in-running'

Would anyone like to explain their strategy a little, perhaps with an example? ;)

[Finbar]

I would think it only be the case while their squad looks so apparently thin (maybe that's just my opinion). Not sure what happened on Saturday but I would be surprised if they drifted in the hours preceding the game as would expect some big bets to be blindly placed on United more than any other team.

Or maybe it's just that United are a bunch of w*nkers and their odds are equally as annoying :)

[Louis]

Not sure what happened on Saturday but I would be surprised if they drifted in the hours preceding the game as would expect some big bets to be blindly placed on United more than any other team.
I waited until kick-off and the odds didn't come in.

[Finbar]

I don't believe that having a large bank is an issue, surely it's much easier to get smaller amounts of money matched than large amounts.

Only issue I can see is the £2 minimum bet but then I know for a fact there are ways round that (not needed to do it myself but if anyone wants to know how I think a mate explained it on email a while ago so I can find it if you like)

I do think that there is a lot to be said for laying 16/1 plus shots as very often they'll go out to 25/1 in the 15mins or so before the race and the ones that come in will surely be outnumbered. Not sure if this could work backing blind though

In running I think is great fun but to make a long term profit very very hard to beat those with a time & bot advantage. Except for in running greyhounds on Sky where I swear if you lay every dog in every race at 1.2 you'll make a profit, some people back at that kind of price just if a dog is leading at the first bend. A pain though as there is no option on those markets to make the bets in play after the off, you have to do it manually.

[hoopsmccan]

Betting in running is bloody difficult unless you are watching the race live.

Anyone with an SIS account (£6K per year :eek: ) has a distinct advantage over those watching on normal TV though. With SIS you could watch a horse fall over and still take lay bets from punters watching on normal TV, I reckon.

[Finbar]

Well maybe not on terrestrial Ch4 or BBC (not that BBC ever show any racing these days!) but they would have at least 3 or 4 seconds over ATR or any other digital channel, sure there are some figures on line to back that up

[Louis]

Man Utd's odds for the match v CSKA Moscow continue to drift, have now gone out from 1.35 to 1.45, threatening to blow any profit for the 'pre-match' speculation fund. :eek:

[Finbar]

Blimey, they do seem to be drifting every game at the moment! Maybe you should trade out once you see drifts like that... Mind you they may well come back in again now and I can't see them going off much bigger than they are now.

Made £5.50 on the Murray game in the end, managed to get about £700 backed and layed in the end

Thought Beck was worth a lay at 13.5 against Djokovic, as soon as I put the request up someone took it and then tried to have £250 more at 13.5 on him :eek:

Luckily that also took all the 1.08 available (which I could only tell thanks to betfair mobile not showing the cross matching) so I have tried to lay Djokovic for my stake plus £700. If that gets matched then Beck is currently available to lay at 12.5 which would mean £4.26 profit guaranteed, or £6 if I can match him at 12.0. My £1k is now front of the queue of £21k so if the odds stay where they are I'll be matched quite soon...if

Not big numbers but looking good to get my bank from £380 to £550ish this month at this rate (which I am sure I won't keep up!!)

[Golf Boy]

Lay 2 or three of the favourites at golf tournements every week ( apart from Tiger )

The top players odds in play are always too low even at points when winning the tournement is practically impossible -- especially Woods and Micklesen

[disco mixx kidd]

Some bloke in a Sunday paper claimed he made millions on betfair just by laying on horses, he took bets on the favourite ( says they
don't come in as often as u think) and a 14 or 16 to 1shot in each race, could any of us make money in this way? Is it as easy as it sounds?

[Finbar]

No am sure it's not that easy, you can certainly do it but laying favourites blind is not a way to make money, am sure you would need to have more than that.

Bet it was in a tabloid, they have it in for Betfair

[Louis]

Bet it was in a tabloid, they have it in for Betfair
Why?

[Finbar]

They are convinced the ability to bet against something happening has corrupted all sports

[disco mixx kidd]

It was notw yes

[disco mixx kidd]

Am I missing a trickhere, they always say it's only the bookie that makes money, well on betfair I guess I could be the bookie, what's to stop me laying a tenner on each horse in a race? Surely I couldn't loose and would make money? Please advise am I missing something obvious?

[disco mixx kidd]

sorry guys i must be thicker than i thought

i layed a favorite the bleeder came in 4-1 shot and lost £100
but i also layed a 16-1 shot that didnt come in, it said my payout would be 160 but i only won a tenner which is what i staked
ive obviously got this totally wrong, so the payout it shows is not what you win but what the punter betting against you wins? this sucks
whats the point risking £160 to win tenner??
especially risky when laying the favorite!

please explain, sorry........

[disco mixx kidd]

oh man.........

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/incoming/390755/ELLIOTT-SHORT.html

[Cake and Eat It]

So say I

Lay £100 on Athletico Madrid vs Liverpool Draw @ 3.45

If a goal is scored...

Back £94.52 on Athletico Madrid vs Liverpool Draw @ 3.65 (theoretical)

Im going to either make £0 or £5.47 (assuming a goal is scored)

Have I got the gist of that right?

[bern5161]

or just lay liverpool at 3.2-3.3 best bet of the night

ps mascherano looked like he tweaked a hamstring in the warm up

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

sorry guys i must be thicker than i thought

i layed a favorite the bleeder came in 4-1 shot and lost £100
but i also layed a 16-1 shot that didnt come in, it said my payout would be 160 but i only won a tenner which is what i staked
ive obviously got this totally wrong, so the payout it shows is not what you win but what the punter betting against you wins? this sucks
whats the point risking £160 to win tenner??
especially risky when laying the favorite!

please explain, sorry........


You layed the horse to lose 160 quid, someone bet a tenner with you that it would win, it didnt so you get their tenner, if it had won you would have paid them 160 quid

[disco mixx kidd]

http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/29/june-28s-betfair-millionaire-story-in-the-news-of-the-world/

[disco mixx kidd]

thnx steve, yeah im understanding it abit more now

very risky betting AGAINST the favorite......... /eek

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

to be honest you shouldnt really start playing until you understand it, its easy to quickly lose a lot of money....there are plenty of helpful videos and websites out there to teach you though

[disco mixx kidd]

yeah i understand that now cheers
what would have happened if that 16-1 shot not won but got a place?
would i have still have got my tenner winnings or would i have lost £40 (assuming quarter odds pay out?)

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

nothing

there is a place market for those place bets

[disco mixx kidd]

thnx fella

[Louis]

So say I

Lay £100 on Athletico Madrid vs Liverpool Draw @ 3.45

If a goal is scored...

Back £94.52 on Athletico Madrid vs Liverpool Draw @ 3.65 (theoretical)

Im going to either make £0 or £5.47 (assuming a goal is scored)

Have I got the gist of that right?
If you could manage to back the same bet at higher odds than you laid it, you would make money on the difference :p (Although I think the odds on a draw would have lengthened a lot more after Atletico Madrid scored - to make money you would have to back the draw when the rest of the market though it was less likely than when you laid it). And remember Betfair take a cut between the back and lay price.

[Louis]

Am I missing a trickhere, they always say it's only the bookie that makes money, well on betfair I guess I could be the bookie, what's to stop me laying a tenner on each horse in a race? Surely I couldn't loose and would make money? Please advise am I missing something obvious?
I think it's all a case of weighing up the odds. If you rate a horse's chance of winning at 10/1, and people are prepared to bet at odds of 3/1, it would be worth 'laying' or taking this bet. To take a football example, if you believe Newcastle have a 1 in 30 (29/1) chance of winning the Premier League next season, you might want to lay bets of 10/1, but you'd be foolish to take bets of 100/1

[Louis]

i also layed a 16-1 shot that didnt come in, it said my payout would be 160 but i only won a tenner which is what i staked

whats the point risking £160 to win tenner??

please explain, sorry........
I suppose the only point laying a 16-1 bet would be if you thought it was LESS likely than 16-1.

Example:

Stoke City to win the Premier League in season 2010-2011: 16/1

That would be a stupid bet to take, but a good one to lay, because the real chance of Stoke City winning the Premier League is less than 16/1, more like 1000/1. So you could risk £160 on this bet safe in the knowledge that you would get your £10 for minimal risk.

[cpfc4evandeva]

I suppose the only point laying a 16-1 bet would be if you thought it was LESS likely than 16-1.

Example:

Stoke City to win the Premier League in season 2010-2011: 16/1

That would be a stupid bet to take, but a good one to lay, because the real chance of Stoke City winning the Premier League is less than 16/1, more like 1000/1. So you could risk £160 on this bet safe in the knowledge that you would get your £10 for minimal risk.

Bit annoying to wave goodbye to £160 though for about a year, just to make £10. Still, if £160 to you is not much money then yeh, that is a good bet.

Are those really the odds?!

[Finbar]

If those were really the odds I would currently be remortgaging my house to lay as much as possible :)

[Louis]

Bit annoying to wave goodbye to £160 though for about a year, just to make £10. Still, if £160 to you is not much money then yeh, that is a good bet.

Are those really the odds?!
Unfortunately not ;)

To take an example from Chelsea v Stoke this Sunday, Stoke are 500/1 with Paddy Power to beat Chelsea 5-0, although only 100/1 with Coral and Stan James.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-stoke/correct-score

If you think the odds of Stoke beating Chelsea 5-0 are around 500/1, and someone was prepared to back this bet at 100/1 or less, it would make sense to accept their bet.

[Finbar]

yes but Paddy Power are only offering 100/1 for you to back it with them, not to lay it, hence you need to find an exchange that will offer a better price where you can't lay it and as they don't quote 5-0 that can't happen

People who lay correct scores on Betfair will be laying almost all the scores to engineer themselves a small profit margin

[Louis]

Andy Topham mentioned this in his column in The Sun today. William Hill are offerering 25-1 on Bristol City to win the Championship next season following Steve Coppell's appointment as manager. Couldn't find it anywhere on their site, but here's an article quoting Graham Sharp from Hills -

http://www.liveoddsandscores.com/news/press-releases/427606/coppell-251-to-win-title-for-city

Andy Topham says 'it's a poor league and that price will be cut for sure', and if you take into account City reaching the play-off final 2 years ago, and Steve Coppell's record with 'lesser' unfashionable clubs, the price does look good.

This makes this bet attractive as a trading possibility over next season. You could take the 25-1 now, and lay it off if City are doing well at some point, for, say, 10-1, thereby guaranteeing a profit.

[Finbar]

Can equally see them totally underperforming from the word go, not one I would be interested in

Sad that Steve looks like going there :(

[Louis]

Can equally see them totally underperforming from the word go, not one I would be interested in

Sad that Steve looks like going there :(
He's already there - it was announced at a press conference yesterday -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/b/bristol_city/8629045.stm

[Finbar]

Boo, been too caught up in the snooker to see that

[ardeo]

Finbar Finbar Finbar, should I be backing Steve Davis at evens as he is 8-4 up, then maybe laying off when he gets to 10 frames?

[disco mixx kidd]

tryed my 'system' today
backed around ten races a tenner on each punt
laid on the fav only if it was 3-1 or less
and then laid off anything at between 12 and 16-1
so if the fav came in my bet was covered and id just be even
only 4 favorites came in so im up over a ton today (covers my mistake yesterday) obviously im very exposed to the long shot winning but i might try this for awhile, i guess i could handle one long shot coming in every now and again once ive built up a pot, seems a hard way to make money but if i make a ton aday thats 35odd grand a year, i could live on that!
not sure how that chap made 20mill thou...........
am i on to something here? guess ill need alot of luck
if 2 or more longshots come in on the same day it would hurt
but i guess making a consistant £20 on each race i lay aint bad if i stick to ten a day even if 1 in 3 favs come in still a ton aday even if i allow for the odd blip........any thoughts here? not very exciting i know but im not used to much luck when i bet, i guess i could lose my float and walk away if the worse happens early doors. if i get a float ill stick to my system and not increase the bets to much, last time i turned 50quid into 300 twice following my mates tips line but lost the lot when i went from betting fivers to twentys

[Louis]

any thoughts here?
I don't bet on horses. But why not scale your stakes right down to, say £1 instead of £10, while you test your system? If you lose, you lose a lot less. If you win consistently, and are confident you can do it profitably, then gradually increase your stakes. Also, try to resist the temptation to put more money in and chase your losses. Good luck :p

[disco mixx kidd]

£2 is the minimum bet but yeah maybe i should
i was exposed to loses of around a grand today and made a ton luckily
but alot of risk

does anyone think im missing something obvious here?

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

how much did u deposit?!

[ardeo]

£2 is the minimum bet but yeah maybe i should
i was exposed to loses of around a grand today and made a ton luckily
but alot of risk

does anyone think im missing something obvious here?

That the person who said he won 20 mil with that system was lying, betfair have said that noone has ever won anywhere near the kind of money he claims to have won on betfair.

Any system like this is based on complete luck, especially if you aren't doing research on your horses like "the 20m winner" was.

In general you will have more winning days than losing days, but when you have a bad losing day you will lose massively.

In general systems don't really work, if you insist on trying this made up one, try it with lower stakes as Louis suggests.

Anyway - good luck

[disco mixx kidd]

thnx lads, yeah i realise the NoTW sorry was fake but i like the idea
and it is true only 1 in 3 favs come in
not sure how many 16-1 shots come in thou, sure i will find out soon.......

[Louis]

i was exposed to losses of around a grand today and made a ton
Ideally, start as small as you can. And - only bet (or expose yourself to) what you are prepared to lose ;)

[rainbow_child]

http://www.easyodds.com/previews/newts-daily-lays-2010/news-933.html

Get on Easyodds lays of the day see the stats and winnings in the last year for yourself

Andy Newton’s Daily Lays 2010

Today's Selection(s)

1.40 Market Rasen: GILBARRY

3.25 Ripon: HALLA SAN

4:15 Sandown: CROWDED HOUSE

6:35 Haydock: DANDEREK

7:05 Haydock: KIDLAT



FOLLOW ME TWITTER

FOLLOW EASYODDS RACING ON TWITTER


**PLEASE NOTE** - Although every effort is made to select horses at a respectable laying price the odd selection can drift markedly in the betting. I know a lot of followers have different staking plans and rules, but if a pick drifts out of your comfort-zone (For me - 13.0+ on Betfair 1-2 mins before the off - NO BET) it's certainly not worth risking it, and remember there's always another day!


Don't forget - you can contact me on andrewn@easyodds.com if you want to ask me anything or have any feedback on the site in general

Key Steps
# 1 - Get selection
# 2 - Place bet 1-2 minutes before the off time
# 3 - If the price drifts out too high - NO BET, for me 13.0+ (12/1) NO BET

Monthly Totals 2010 - Win Only

Jan 10 +275 Feb 10 -£762.50
Mar 10 +637.50

Monthly Totals 2009 - Win Only

Jan 09 +£350 Feb 09 +£1,237.50
Mar 09 +£375 Apr 09 +£2,362.50
May 09 +£2,036.50 June 09 +£3,265.00
July 09 -£400.00 Aug 09 +£1,375.00
Sept 09 +£787.50 Oct 09 -£464.00
Nov 09 -£1,333.00 Dec 09 -£1,708.00
2009 YEAR END TOTAL = £7,884
Monthly Totals 2008 - Win Only

Jan 08 +£2,950 Feb 08 +£3,500
Mar 08 +£1,000 Apr 08 +£217
May 08 +£2,217 June 08 +£3,125
July 08 +£750 Aug 08 +£967
Sept 08 -£983 Oct 08 -£2,353
Nov 08 +£2,750 Dec 08 -£1,999

2008 YEAR END TOTAL = £12,141

Click here to view 2009 results in more detail
Click here to view 2008 results in more detail

#

If you want to find out more or ask Andy anything please mail him at andrewn@easyodds.com

Results are show to £100 level stake - both win and place

*Note* - Commission (Norm between 2-5%) is not taken out of winnings

 

Date Time/Course Horse Result SP Return Profit/Loss
PAST RESULTS 2010
1 Jan 10 2.00 South STORMY SUMMER 1ST 3/1 -300 £-300
9 Jan 10 1.55 Kemp MR DEAL UP 5/1 100 £-200
10 Jan 10 3.05 Ling ART MARKET 1ST 4/1 -400 £-600
13 Jan 10 7.15 Kemp BAWAARDI UP 4/1 100 £-500
15 Jan 10 4.50 Wolver MISS FIREFLY UP 13/2 100 £-400
15 Jan 10 7.20 Wolver AAMAN 2ND 15/2 100 £-300
16 Jan 10 12.45 Hunt KILSHANNING UP 9/1 100 £-200
19 Jan 10 4.50 Wolves LYRICAL INTENT 1ST 7/2 -350 £-550
20 Jan 10 1.50 Wolves SILKEN PROMISE UP 4/1 100 £-450
21 Jan 10 12.30 Ling PARTY IN THE PARK UP 7/2 100 £-350
24 Jan 10 2.00 Kemp RESTFUL ANGEL UP 7/2 100 £-250
24 Jan 10 3.45 Mk Rasen AMIR PASHA UP 4/1 100 £-150
24 Jan 10 4.15 Mk Rasen YOUNG BUDDY UP 7/2 100 £-50
24 Jan 10 4.25 Tow YOUNG BUDDY 2ND 3/1 100 £50
25 Jan 10 5.40 Wolves JOIN UP UP 11/4 100 £150
26 Jan 10 2.10 Leic RINCE DONN UP 15/2 100 £250
27 Jan 10 3.40 Hunt BALLABROOK UP 3/1 100 £350
27 Jan 10 4.20 Hunt VICTORY SNURGE UP 7/2 100 £450
28 Jan 10 3.30 Wolver TARALEENO 1ST 11/4 -275 £175
29 Jan 10 2.55 Chep RAISE YOU FIVE 2ND 5/2 100 £275
1 Feb 10 2.05 Wolver MISS FIREFLY 1ST 5/1 -500 -£225
1 Feb 10 3.15 Wolver SAKILE 2ND 7/2 100 -£125
2 Feb 10 1.10 Ling ESPY 2ND 4/1 100 -£25
3 Feb 10 1.55 Exet JACKERS UP 4/1 100 £75
3 Feb 10 3.40 Exet ANAY TURGE UP 7/2 100 £175
3 Feb 10 4.00 Ling COOL ZERO 1ST 9/4 -225 -£50
4 Feb 10 3.20 Win LINDY LOU UP 7/2 100 £50
5 Feb 10 2.20 Ling BUBBLY BRAVEHEART 1ST 5/2 -250 -£200
5 Feb 10 3.30 Ling ANJOMARBA UP 11/4 100 -£100
6 Feb 10 2.20 Weth SA SUFFIT 1ST 4/1 -400 -£500
10 Feb 10 6.10 Kemp MIDNIGHT BAY UP 5/1 100 -£400
11 Feb 10 2.10 Hunt CESIUM UP 7/2 100 -£300
11 Feb 10 6.30 Kemp MUSASHI UP 5/1 100 -£200
12 Feb 10 6.15 Wolves FLAXEN LAKE 2ND 11/8 100 -£100
12 Feb 10 7.45 Wolves RIDE A WHITE SWAN 3RD 5/1 100 £0
13 Feb 10 4.30 War GALOSHES 3RD 9/4 100 £100
13 Feb 10 7.50 Wolver TOOLENTIDHAAR UP 12/1 100 £200
15 Feb 10 2.10 Wolver STRABOE 1ST 7/1 -700 -£500
15 Feb 10 2.40 Wolver ESPY 1ST 3/1 -300 -£800
16 Feb 10 4.10 Newc SAMMY SIDERMAN UP 7/2 100 -£700
17 Feb 10 2.30 Ling VALKYRIE UP 7/2 100 -£600
17 Feb 10 3.20 Muss ORSIPPUS 1ST 4/1 -400 -£1,000
17 Feb 10 4.40 Leic KILLFINNAN CASTLE UP 9/1 100 -£900
17 Feb 10 7.40 Kemp EXCEED POWER 2nd 7/2 100 -£800
19 Feb 10 6.45 Wolver DUBRAVANY UP 4/1 100 -£700
23 Feb 10 2.20 Taunt ROMNEY MARSH UP 5/1 100 -£600
23 Feb 10 2.30 South OVERLAW UP 6/4 100 -£500
23 Feb 10 4.10 Ling LADY KENT 1ST 11/8 -137.50 -£637.50
24 Feb 10 4.55 Ling CANDYFLOSS GIRL 1ST 4/1 -400 -£1,037.50
1 Mar 10 2.30 Here PLENTY OF CHAT UP 7/2 100 -£937.50
1 Mar 10 3.00 Here OVERLAW 1ST 5/1 -500 -£1,437.50
2 Mar 10 2.00 Catt NIGHTBOAT TO CARIO UP 4/1 100 -£1,337.50
3 Mar 10 2.30 Wolves SPOOF MASTER UP 8/1 100 -£1,237.50
3 Mar 10 3.10 Folk WIESENFURST 2ND 11/4 100 -£1,137.50
5 Mar 10 4.45 Ling SAPPHIRE PRINCE 1ST 4/1 -400 -£1,537.50
5 Mar 10 5.15 Ling KNIGHTFIRE UP 11/2 100 -£1,437.50
8 Mar 10 3.40 Strat PLAYERS PLEASE UP 7/2 100 -£1,337.50
9 Mar 10 3.00 Exet SALONTYRE 3RD 13/2 100 -£1,237.50
10 Mar 10 3.40 Font SEAN THORNTON UP 7/1 100 -£1,137.50
10 Mar 10 4.40 Font KEEPHOLDIN UP 5/2 100 -£1,037.50
12 Mar 10 5.40 Ayr DAUNTSEY BAY UP 5/2 100 -£937.50
14 Mar 10 3.30 War WAR FOOTING 2ND 7/1 100 -£837.50
14 Mar 10 4.30 War SUPREME KEANO UP 5/1 100 -£737.50
15 Mar 10 3.50 Taunt VICS WORLD 2ND 7/1 100 -£637.50
15 Mar 10 4.30 Plump HONOUR’S DREAM 2ND 13/2 100 -£537.50
15 Mar 10 5.20 Taunt LEPIDO UP 10/3 100 -£437.50
16 Mar 10 1.55 South SIR GEORGE 2ND 7/2 100 -£337.50
17 Mar 10 4.55 Hunt PALOS CONTI 1ST 7/2 -350 -£687.50
17 Mar 10 5.40 South NABEEDA UP 7/2 100 -£587.50
22 Mar 10 3.30 Plump RINCE DONN UP 3/1 100 -£487.50
22 Mar 10 3.40 Kelso STORMIN EXIT 2ND 6/4 100 -£387.50
23 Mar 10 3.40 Kemp WOOLFALL TREASURE UP 4/1 100 -£287.50
23 Mar 10 3.50 War WAR FOOTING UP 10/3 100 -£187.50
25 Mar 10 8.20 Kemp SUNNY SPELLS UP 6/1 100 -£87.50
26 Mar 10 2.20 Newb BLUEGUN UP 11/2 100 £12.50
26 Mar 10 5.40 Wolves KNIGHTFIRE 1ST 13/8 -162.50 -£150
26 Mar 10 6.40 Wolves PRINCESS MANDY UP 3/1 100 -£50
27 Mar 10 4.40 Strat CAPTAIN SMOOTHY UP 2/1 100 £50
29 Mar 10 2.20 Wolves SEASIDER UP 6/1 100 £150
29 Mar 10 3.50 Wolves BREATHLESS KISS UP 3/1 100 £250
30 Mar 10 3.00 Font MISS SAFFRON 1ST 7/2 -350 -£100
31 Mar 10 5.20 Here ABBEY DORE 1ST 3/1 -300 -£400
1 Apr 10 4.00 Lud HERONS WELL UP 3/1 100 -£300
3 Apr 10 4.05 Hay BLAZING DIVA UP 6/1 100 -£200
5 Apr 10 3.25 Yar BIG BOOM UP 3/1 100 -£100
5 Apr 10 4.30 Hunt LADY FLORENCE UP 7/1 100 £0
5 Apr 10 4.50 Plump BEAU LAKE UP 2/1 100 £100
5 Apr 10 5.10 Yar CAPEABILITY UP 3/1 100 £200
6 Apr 10 2.10 South MACKINTOSH UP 5/2 100 £300
6 Apr 10 3.20 Weth YOUNG BUDDY UP 11/4 100 £400
7 Apr 10 5.00 Ling RIDE A WHITE SWAN UP 14/1 100 £500
7 Apr 10 5.10 Catt NABRINA UP 5/2 100 £600
7 Apr 10 8.30 Kemp MOTTY'S GIFT 1ST 11/1 -1,100 -£500
8 Apr 10 2.50 Leic TOM FOLAN UP 15/8 100 -£400
8 Apr 10 6.20 Wolver COLONEL SHERMAN 2nd 5/4 100 -£300
9 Apr 10 6.15 Wolver ROY BUOY UP 8/1 100 -£200
10 Apr 10 3.00 Chep HEART SPRINGS 3rd 14/1 100 -£100
13 Apr 10 5.00 Yar CALZAGHE UP 7/2 100 £0
14 Apr 10 7.05 Kemp COLONEL SHERMAN 1ST 3/1 -300 £-300
15 Apr 10 9.10 Kemp MARKEHSA UP 2/1 100 £-200
16 Apr 10 2.50 Ayr FEDERSTAR 1st 3/1 -300 £-500
16 Apr 10 3.25 Ayr CHANINBAR UP 7/2 100 £-400
16 Apr 10 7.20 Chelt GO WEST UP 12/1 100 £-300
17 Apr 10 3.45 Bangor SILVER SPINNER UP 3/1 100 £-200
17 Apr 10 5.05 Ayr MONT PRESENT 3rd 3/1 100 £-100
17 Apr 10 6.35 Nott TILSWORTH GLENBAY UP 7/2 100 £0
17 Apr 10 7.40 Nott BUZZ BIRD UP 10/1 100 £100
19 Apr 10 5.15 Pont DAREDEVIL DAN 3rd 3/1 100 £200
19 Apr 10 5.25 Pont STAR GALAXY UP 17/2 100 £300
20 Apr 10 2.10 Wolver CHESHIRE LADY 3rd 8/1 100 £400
20 Apr 10 2.40 Wolver CORDELL UP 11/2 100 £500
21 Apr 10 3.10 Catt FIRETRAP UP 6/1 100 £600
21 Apr 10 4.45 South OVERLAW UP 7/2 100 £700
21 Apr 10 6.50 Kemp CAVITIE 2nd 4/1 100 £800
21 Apr 10 6.25 South ETHIOPIA UP 6/1 100 £900
21 Apr 10 7.20 Kemp ON TERMS 1ST 7/2 -350 £550
22 Apr 10 4.30 Font COUNT BORIS UP 9/4 100 £650
23 Apr 10 3.35 Wolver BAJAN PRIDE 1ST 8/1 -800 -£150
23 Apr 10 4.05 Wolver LAND HAWK UP 4/1 100 -£50
23 Apr 10 5.45 Chep QUO VIDEO 1st 7/2 -350 -£400
23 Apr 10 6.15 Chep COSACK DANCER 2nd 3/1 100 -£300

[Finbar]

There is no faster way to the poor house than following a tipping service.

Step 1 Set up 10 or more tipping services
Step 2 Wait till one or two of them show a decent long term profit
Step 3 Set up subscription service / phone tipping service to those which make a profit advertising auditted proof that each horse was tipped up

Simple

[rainbow_child]

There is no faster way to the poor house than following a tipping service.

Step 1 Set up 10 or more tipping services
Step 2 Wait till one or two of them show a decent long term profit
Step 3 Set up subscription service / phone tipping service to those which make a profit advertising auditted proof that each horse was tipped up

Simple

The difference being this is a free service and not one you are paying for!

The winning stats are updated daily on the site if you don't believe how good they are follow them without betting for a bit.

I'm well in profit I have been following them for the last 2years easy £££ :lux: :lux:

[Finbar]

In which case good work :p

[Louis]

I'm well in profit I have been following them for the last 2years easy £££ :lux: :lux:
Great stuff :p.

The only thing is, as with share tipping, I suspect the more popular a tipping service becomes, the less rewarding it will be as more and more people jump on the bandwagon and any 'value' disappears. It becomes self-defeating for those who follow it. That's the trouble with following other peoples tips instead of your own.

[rainbow_child]

Great stuff :p.

The only thing is, as with share tipping, I suspect the more popular a tipping service becomes, the less rewarding it will be as more and more people jump on the bandwagon and any 'value' disappears. It becomes self-defeating for those who follow it. That's the trouble with following other peoples tips instead of your own.

It's a tipping service for laying horses and not backing so prices and value will not shorten as more people follow mate.

I just started laying the selections for £3 or £4 as they are never over 12-1 you are not risking a shed load and now I have a bit in the bank I have been laying them for £10.

I way up anyway and I would recommend follow this guy get on! :lux: :love:

[Louis]

It's a tipping service for laying horses and not backing so prices and value will not shorten as more people follow mate.
I would have thought the more people lay a horse, the longer the price gets, and the less value there is. Say a horse is 12/1, there will only be limited amount of money backing it at 12/1, so only a certain amount available to lay at 12/1. If you're following any tipping service like this, I would have thought it's essential to set limits above/below which you don't go - don't get swept up in the euphoria on the basis that 'you can't lose'.

[disco mixx kidd]

The difference being this is a free service and not one you are paying for!

The winning stats are updated daily on the site if you don't believe how good they are follow them without betting for a bit.

I'm well in profit I have been following them for the last 2years easy £££ :lux: :lux:

yeah well done

i laid a horse that only ******* came in today sunrise safari at 17-1 :-(
blew my profits for the last 2 days........

[gjohnk]

yeah well done

i laid a horse that only ******* came in today sunrise safari at 17-1 :-(
blew my profits for the last 2 days........

I tried somthing similar(ish) for a while.
Laying horses at between around 10-1 and 20-1. Especially on races were this horses was 6th or 7th favourite in the race.

I was generally laying £3/5 stakes so potential losses of £50ish per bet.
After about two weeks I was £150 up.
Then three races in a row my lay'ed horses won - losing me the £150 profit I had made.

For me my idea wouldnt work unless I knew the horses I was laying, and therefore thought the odds were shorter than they should be.
However, I have no idea on horses so stopped (luckily without losing any money).

[cpfc4evandeva]

Wasn't there a thread a while back called 'Lay of the day'?

[disco mixx kidd]

thats on thehun.com ;-)

this site looks ok
http://www.easyodds.com/previews/newts-daily-lays-2010/news-933.html

[Louis]

thats on thehun.com ;-)

this site looks ok
http://www.easyodds.com/previews/newts-daily-lays-2010/news-933.html
That's the link that rainbow_child posted yesterday

[disco mixx kidd]

sorry yes i know i was backing up his suggestion
are there any other FREE tips sites anyone recommends?

i had a close escape yesterday
all the favs i laid failed to come in so happy days
but one fav became a non runner and i suddenly felt abit exposed to my 16-1 shot so i backed it to win as well and it did, so i lost 160 and made 160 at the same time, weird feeling! i assume u cant cancel bets once their made even before the race has started? dumb question i know.......
its deffo not as much fun backing horses to lose

lots of money goin on palace to win 2nite!

[disco mixx kidd]

ive started laying hot favs at 2-1 or less in the smaller races as well now
but not backing an outsider to hedge my bets as its to risky in smaller fields
doing well today up over a ton, not many favs coming in at all
i backed palace at 7-1 last nite for a 1-1 draw put a ton on it
wont do it again, to many mixed emotions

[disco mixx kidd]

Ohh man another 16-1 shot came in

[disco mixx kidd]

are there anygood radio stations that follow all the horse races?

[Louis]

are there anygood radio stations that follow all the horse races?
I think Betfair have one don't they?

[Louis]

Timeform Radio ...

http://www.timeform.com/display_articles.asp?page=Timeform_Radio.asp

[disco mixx kidd]

Thnx

[disco mixx kidd]

i had a great day yesterday won over £600 and have decided to take my money out and just bet a few quid here and there for fun

the laying against favorites and hedging by laying against a 16-1 shot thing didnt work, two long shots came in along with 2 many favs!

i then used the tipster in the times http://timesonline.typepad.com/sports_book/

hes very good, apparently the only paper pundit to turn a profit, he turned every pound into £39 quid last year

but backing him was dodgy, a few days no winners, then a few winners but i slowly slipped 300 down

yesterday was amazing, he tipped at least 6 winners out of ten
won 50s and 100s alot

his best tip for me was a few weeks ago, makfi, i got 46-1 and won £400 odd
i won on west brom palace draw £500 but lost all that hedging against relegation (i was happy to lose that)

my best bet was yesterday on blackpool result, put a tenner on at 44-1

i think if i carried on i lose the lot, so fun as its been..........
im gonna do the scoop6 each sat and the odd nap
plus still love goin to the races anyway :-)

[Finbar]

Good bank for the world cup then! :)

[disco mixx kidd]

yeah i already backed spain with a ton at sixes

but obviously thats hedging as i really want england!

should keep it interesting if we ever get knocked out

its been fun :-)

[Finbar]

Yep, can't see Spain not going very deep. I'll be backing Holland though, that's the only value I can see, they'll breeze through qualifying and are one of the few teams with the pace to beat Spain / Brazil, think Euro 2008 showed that pace was the one big difference between Spain and the others and am not sure England would cope with either of them. Have a feeling Brazil won't have a good tournament, might even have a few quid on them not qualifying (you can lay them at 1.16)

[GodstoneEagle]

Only value?

ITALY AT FIFTEENS!!!!

Obscene.

[Finbar]

Is appauling value!! Go Dutch :cool:

[GodstoneEagle]

Perhaps a friendly wager as to who will go further fin? :cool:

[Finbar]

Gladly :)

[ardeo]

Argentina seem fairly short considering how much they struggled in qualifying and how appalling Maradona is as a manager. The German machine must be good odds at 15.

I think the problem with Holland, as we saw in the euros, is that they struggle to break teams down. They are fantastic on the break with their pace, but not so good when they have to score. I also think they are a bit suspect defensively which means they can't just absorb pressure a la Inter.

Italy can always go either way, they'll either be rubbish or grind out results and go a long way. They are training at high altitude (about 2000m) which might play a large part as many of the grounds in S Africa are over 1000m above sea level.

[GodstoneEagle]

You can guarantee a solid Italian defence, provided they can find goals they will be in the running. Pretty easy group although I think trading wise you could do ok with Paraguay, they have a dynamite front 4 and if they beat Slovakia they're in the second round against probably Holland. Certainly possibility of a profit there don't you think?

[disco mixx kidd]

how good are mexico? 30-1 for a 2-2 draw 2nite

[disco mixx kidd]

You can guarantee a solid Italian defence, provided they can find goals they will be in the running. Pretty easy group although I think trading wise you could do ok with Paraguay, they have a dynamite front 4 and if they beat Slovakia they're in the second round against probably Holland. Certainly possibility of a profit there don't you think?

paraguay are 100-1 gotta be worth a few quid cheers :p

[GodstoneEagle]

http://www.soccermystic.com/

Thoughts please traders...

[gjohnk]

Clearly the way to find a good trading opportunity is looking at who has the easier routes through. I started to look at this and found that the favourites Spain have a horendous route through to the final and should expect to face.

Last 16 - Portugal
Quarter Final - Italy
Semi - Germany
Final - England ;)

If they do it, they really will be worthy winners!

[Finbar]

Would be more interested in finding a team who might not qualify but if they do then their pre last 16 price would not be much lower than their current price with a view of laying to then back them if they do qualify.

So far I honestly think the downside for Brazil is not much at all (assuming someone like Spain doesn't get knocked out). Can see them being maybe half a point shorter if they qualify and it only takes one bad result against Ivory Coast (their 2nd match) and they're right in it. Even if they qualify they may well drift if they struggle.

Don't see Spain's price coming in at all (especially given the above draw which asides from Italy :D is quite tricky) but then I don't see them having any problems qualifying whatsoever so not much point in backing to lay or laying to back.

Think I should be able to work out in advance what trades I plan to make so if I do will post them up here, people are free to follow them and we can keep track of how they do, will only really be possible up to and including the last 8 I think.

[Finbar]

http://www.soccermystic.com/

Thoughts please traders...

Never looked into those things, having that much automation takes the fun out of it though but if I ever wanted to trade and try to make a job out of it then you would have to work out how this kind of software can help you, for now am happy with going the way I do

[disco mixx kidd]

some guy in the papers today is eurovision mad, he researches voting patterns and looks on you tube to see which countries songs may appeal etc
bets 300k on betfair, mainly on semis, wins 40k on average

bleedin eck!

[Finbar]

Well last year I did really well out of X Factor backing and laying in the 'next eviction' market. A lot of money traded so good liquidity and big gaps between the back and lay bets (whereas something like Premiership winner would have 3.25-3.3 for a runner this might have 3.1-3.4 so if you get backed on both sides there is a healthy margin).

People seem to blindly back / lay up to £500 without really caring what price they take. Guess it's that unlike most markets there is very little history / form to know what is and isn't a good price. Might be same opportunity on the Eurovision, if I'm in next Saturday might give it a go.

[GodstoneEagle]

As will I, can't hurt.

[Louis]

big gaps between the back and lay bets (whereas something like Premiership winner would have 3.25-3.3 for a runner this might have 3.1-3.4 so if you get backed on both sides there is a healthy margin).
Not sure if I understand, but surely a bigger margin between back and lay makes it harder to make money from trading?

[Finbar]

back £50 at 3.4
lay £54.8 at 3.1
= profit of £4.50 guaranteed

To same stakes you make about 80p not £4.50 at 3.2-3.25

The bigger the gap the better when it comes to being matched on both sides

[Louis]

The bigger the gap the better when it comes to being matched on both sides
OK I think I see now - if your bets are matched, you gain from the wide margin rather than lose from it - but ... surely it's not easy to get both these wide margin bets matched, and you are relying on this to make money.

[Finbar]

Yeah, getting backed on both sides is how I'm doing ok on the over1.5 goals market, is very very small margins though so requires patience, find it very satisfying though.

Made £23 from CL final and £9 from England friendly, lost £8 yesterday (first for ages on those market) on Ireland friendly but made a massive error getting involved with that market anyway as the price was too big to start with, still learning when and when not to get involved. It's not risk free but very close if I follow my rules, looking forward next year's Prem League to see if I can hit about 7-10% increase in bank per week which should be doable quite easily on a bank up to at least £2k I think

[herts_palace]

Well last year I did really well out of X Factor backing and laying in the 'next eviction' market. A lot of money traded so good liquidity and big gaps between the back and lay bets (whereas something like Premiership winner would have 3.25-3.3 for a runner this might have 3.1-3.4 so if you get backed on both sides there is a healthy margin).

People seem to blindly back / lay up to £500 without really caring what price they take. Guess it's that unlike most markets there is very little history / form to know what is and isn't a good price. Might be same opportunity on the Eurovision, if I'm in next Saturday might give it a go.

I've made money from Eurovision the last few times I have done it, for the reasons that Fin has explained above. Most of the layers are clueless so a little knowledge and in depth analysis is very useful. Mind you so is a knowledge of local voting patterns!
Plus, like X factor you may have a lot of casual, not very savvy punters who will take the first "reasonable looking" price that they see.

[Finbar]

Cheers Herts, interesting to hear, is it also the case that a lot of songs will shorten up right after they're on and then drift once people forget about them to a certain extent?

[GodstoneEagle]

I've made money from Eurovision the last few times I have done it, for the reasons that Fin has explained above. Most of the layers are clueless so a little knowledge and in depth analysis is very useful. Mind you so is a knowledge of local voting patterns!
Plus, like X factor you may have a lot of casual, not very savvy punters who will take the first "reasonable looking" price that they see.
Could you elaborate?

[Finbar]

Cheers Herts, interesting to hear, is it also the case that a lot of songs will shorten up right after they're on and then drift once people forget about them to a certain extent?

Of course you would have to use common sense and not blindly back a song which is clearly a dog.

Tempted to download the semis onto my phone and watch them on the train, the thought of it makes me cringe but might be worth a few quid to know the good ones from the bad

[Louis]

Of course you would have to use common sense and not blindly back a song which is clearly a dog.

Tempted to download the semis onto my phone and watch them on the train, the thought of it makes me cringe but might be worth a few quid to know the good ones from the bad
It's not the 'good ones' that win in Eurovision though is it? ;) Key thing I suppose is to work out which might get the most votes (as opposed to personal likes and dislikes).

[Finbar]

True but was more thinking about preparing for kneejerk reactions and making money there. Working out who will vote for who is far too complicated though am sure there are sites which would speculate (based on past voting) what is likely to happen

Also worth looking at market moves on Betfair that have already happened.

In these things it's often easy to see a price which is falling and it's just a case of matching as much as you can before the price settles down when you can trade out. A lot easier said than done, good fun when it works though :)

Any trading I do would be relatively small stakes unless I got to the position where I was playing with profit

[herts_palace]

Could you elaborate?

Yes, there are usually a lot of Arbs around Eurovision. The fact that there are tells me a lot of punters have:

1. Got no other betting accounts or
2. Cannot be bothered checking other bookie prices or
3. Cannot be bothered going to the odds checking sites to get a better price. or
4. It's "easier" on Betfair or
5. Some other reason I haven't fathomed out yet

I also suspect[although no proof whatsoever but if the Forum is at all representative then I'm convinced] that the average age of the layers may be older than the voting public and they be putting their own view in with the odds they set. This may be where you get "none of the good songs win" from. When assessing the songs you need to be objective as possible and look at the poll and analysis sites and tap in to the voting public as best as you can.

[herts_palace]

It's not the 'good ones' that win in Eurovision though is it? ;) Key thing I suppose is to work out which might get the most votes (as opposed to personal likes and dislikes).

For me that is the key in this market. Last time I did this market was probably 3 years ago but I don't remember trading in play as it could be difficult to say the least. However a knowledge of the voting positions might help.

[GodstoneEagle]

I'm on the look for some statistical analyses of the voting patterns. An academic journal has already popped up

http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/9/2/1.html

[Louis]

For me that is the key in this market. Last time I did this market was probably 3 years ago but I don't remember trading in play as it could be difficult to say the least. However a knowledge of the voting positions might help.
I have learned from experience that it is easy to get attached to things you bet on. This would be more likely with things like music - it would be easy to fall in love with a song and/or singer that you really like :o

[GodstoneEagle]

You can download another in .pdf form now

http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0505071v1

[GodstoneEagle]

http://164.15.69.62/ecare/personal/ginsburgh/papers/153.eurovision.pdf

[GodstoneEagle]

and finally

http://www.eco.rug.nl/medewerk/haanma/esc.pdf

[herts_palace]

I'm on the look for some statistical analyses of the voting patterns. An academic journal has already popped up

http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/9/2/1.html

Looks interesting. Have you read it and if so what's the conclusion? I couldn't see any from skimming the paper.

[herts_palace]

and finally

http://www.eco.rug.nl/medewerk/haanma/esc.pdf

Good stuff GE. If I get time tomorrow I will investigate the market, then look at the info you have quoted to see if there are any opportunities.

I'm off now for a 9 mile run!

[GodstoneEagle]

I'll have a read too and we'll try and come to some conclusions so we can all benefit :)

[Finbar]

Dabbled in the Eurovision market a bit today (ahead of 2nd semifinal tonight), built up a fair liability on Israel so thought I should check out the songs at the head of the market.

Azerbaijan ticks pretty much every box!! Catchy, she's fit and it's called 'drip-drop', perfect!!

2.8 fav but must trade lower after tonight surely... tempted, very tempted. Might have £200 at 2.8, downside won't be much unless she has a total mare

Will certainly be trading out of Israel before that rubbish...probably win of course :D Need to be matched at 14.0 to get a nice green on it having backed it at 14.5 and 16.0 this afternoon

foTyd5BEHRU&NR=1

[herts_palace]

Initial Analysis on Eurovision.

1. Not many Arbs about- only found 1 so far
2. Some of the songs sound reasonable!
3. Having looked at previous winners, 8 of the last 9 have won it for the first time. If this was to continue this would increase the chances of Azerbaijan and Germany
4. A lot of Baltic states have won it recently.
5 Now off to read some of GE's docs

[GodstoneEagle]

Azerbaijan won't win due to the tactical voting surely? Not enough friends to vote for it.

Baltic/Scandinavian winner for sure IMO.

Will read some of those docs though and see what they say.

[Finbar]

Yep, most of May's profits wiped out by that trade, they're now at 3.8, will try to claw some of that back over the next day and a half :grrr:

[Louis]

Yep, most of May's profits wiped out by that trade, they're now at 3.8, will try to claw some of that back over the next day and a half :grrr:
Sorry to hear that. But it's good that you posted your loss, as well as posting your wins. I watched the clip you posted yesterday and agree it is an excellent song performed well - so much better than the Eurovision songs I remember from the 70s - you could imagine the song being in the charts on its' own right without the benefit of Eurovision. But I thought a price of 2.84 was a bit short bearing in mind the number of entrants - aren't there somewhere around 20 or 30? I could guess the Azerbaijan will be in the top 3 or so.

[Finbar]

Happy to put up my losses as well, have managed to have very few of those recently though (talking about trading rather than normal betting!) slightly miffed at getting greedy on this one though, could have been worse as was tempted to put more than the £200 on.

My whole ethos is trading while stuff isn't happening so there are no big price jumps, guess I got greedy and the gambler in me couldn't resist. Maybe I'll put some money in my Betdaq account for the more volatile stuff and try to steadily increase my betfair account that way. From August will try to only bet on the unders / overs markets in Premiership / La Liga / Champs league / Internationals but is annoying when Betfair has markets which no other bookie has.

Have made a few quid back on the Eurovision market but am sure I will end up losing overall (unless I trade it in running which I might do...)

[Finbar]

will try to claw some of that back over the next day and a half :grrr:

Well have gone from everything being -£50 to everything being -£50 except for Azerbaijan (favourites) who are now green for a fiver and Germany who are -£35 so it's an improvement at least :)

Hopefully might not be too bad by the time it all starts, some nice big backs and lays being placed stopping the prices from going in / out which makes chipping away at the current red fairly simple

[herts_palace]

Just seen tips from oddchecker and the last 5 winners have sung in positions 20, 24,17,17 and 19. If this holds it would rule out Azerbaijan[1] and possibly Turkey[14]. I have read the first of GE's papers,
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/9/2/1.html
I didn't understand all[or more accurately most] of it but it does seem to prove the existance of voting blocks. Also highlights the large populations of Turkish expats that exist in some countries that may also affect voting. Although I understand the impact of this may be reduced this year as a voting panel will contibute 50% of the vote.

If I ignore that I have heard some of the songs I would be inclined to go for Denmark as all the Baltic states will get a vote[39 countries to vote in final] and Denmark sing in last position. However a few other factors come into play. For example I understand that the German song [or is it the singer] is already well known in Europe. Also what effect will Greece's money problems have? Finally the songs from the semi will have an advantage as they have already been heard once. Additionally according to one poll site it is a 3 way battle with Germany, Azer and Armenia battling it out with others including Israel, Romania , Turkey and Denamark also in contention.

I have heard and remember the Turkish song and think it has a chance. I also have heard the German and Danish songs and whilst I wouldn't dismiss them they didn't impress me. However the fact that the German and Azer sing early and that Germany is a "big" country that is not part of a voting bloc suggests to me that they will not win.

So to sum up at this stage I think it will be between Armenia, Denmark, Israel, Turkey and Romania[just noticed that all of these are in the top 6 in the betting except Romania!!].What I haven't worked out yet is whether there prices will come in or drift. I will now listen to the songs and see if this list cannot be shortened. Then work out what my bets will be.

Useful sites

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/specials-betting-tips
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2010

One final thought the Georgia song seemed to be sung with a bit of gusto, sort of dismissed it as it is sung in 13th position. No data on voting blocs, so far, as it is a new entrant. Might be a good outsider.

[GodstoneEagle]

I think I'd go on Germany for the fact he's well known. Denmark for the scandi vote and then one of the baltic chaps.

[herts_palace]

I think I'd go on Germany for the fact he's well known. Denmark for the scandi vote and then one of the baltic chaps.

I think Denmark may pick up both the Scandi vote and the Balkan vote. Don't forget that there are no entries from Finland, Sweden, Latvia and Lithuania in the final but that they all have a vote.

Also if you do elect to go for trading Denmark in play then I suggest you hold off betting on them before Finland vote in position 10 as there is not one Scandi or Baltic state in the first 9 voters.

By the way the German is a she.

[GodstoneEagle]

That's what you think ;)

[herts_palace]

I think I'd go on Germany for the fact he's well known. Denmark for the scandi vote and then one of the baltic chaps.

Ok I may have got this wrong. Satellite [the German entry] has been released already and has topped the German download charts. The Youtube video has more than 5 million hits. One other thought will the Europeans be slightly more pro German now that that they have bailed out the Euro?

I may not yet be in a position where I am backing the German entry but I will certainly make sure I don't lose if it wins.

[Finbar]

Well my gay friend said France or Romania and has no idea of the betting so must be good info...might be good info...

[GodstoneEagle]

5 quid on denmark at 20s already. may venture on germany.

[herts_palace]

Well my gay friend said France or Romania and has no idea of the betting so must be good info...might be good info...

If that's the choice I would stick it on Romania no question. Good voting block, people have already heard the song, France hasn't done well for ages. Then listen to the songs!

[Louis]

No interest in betting on Eurovision myself, but they did a feature on Radio Five Live just before 1am tonight (Friday night) during which they played short excerpts from a few of the favourites, and the Azerbaijan number stood out to me - Five Live said it's the favourite.

[Finbar]

Well have had a dabble on Denmark and Romania :p

[Louis]

Azerb. and Germany are the current favs with Bet365

[herts_palace]

Well have had a dabble on Denmark and Romania :p

Still completing my investigations but those 2 look good to me at the moment, especially at the prices offered.

[herts_palace]

Having listened to more videos than I care to admit I have decided on the following.

Betting on Denmark, Turkey, Romania and Georgia.

Azerbaijan has a good song but I just think the price is too short and 1st up will work against her. My intentions are to lay Azer and then possibly back when she starts to drift up. Germany has a reasonable song but again too short in a strong field. Also her English accent sounds wierd to me. No voting block will work against her. Have already backed at 5.0 with the intention of laying at 4.5[currently 4.8].

If you seriously think that Azer can win it then they are on BF at 3.75. But perhaps a better bet is to bet on the winner coming from a draw of 1-10 at 3.5 with Bwin so you will get 9 other countries thrown in for a small reduction in price. May even to be able to make some small dosh by doing the Bwin bet & laying the others songs drawn 1-10 for small amounts on BF?

Denmark is my strong tip. Good song. go last, strong voting block, with [in my opinion] no serious contention from other baltic, scandi states[although iceland song is reasonable]. One other aspect that may help is that the final is in Norway. I have noted that the winners are often not that distant from the final location. Perhaps this is because a lot more Norwegians than normal will watch, wherever they are based to increase the Scandi vote. GE did well to get 20 I tried to get 19.5 without any joy and price is now 17. I think price may drift once comp is under way, as stated previously so will try to back prior to Finland voting. Other tips include Turkey and Romania.I have already traded Turkey by backing at 16.0 and laying at 13.5. But I am hoping that price goes out again.


Some other bets I will be making:

Lay Greece to be in the top 4 - 5.4 on Betfair. Poor song[imo], 11th on, no big voting block and econnomic problems won't help. Or if you prefer not to lay you can back them at evens at 365 to finish 8th or worse. I know they have a strong diaspora[expats] but that might help them to get top 10, but the juries will prevent them becoming top 4

Back Georgia to be in the top 10. I like this song but they may not have enough to win it. However it is a catchy tune and she comes on after the UK entry and may appear to be better than she really is. Current price is 2.36 on BF, although I got 2.5.

Back Denmark to beat Israel head to Head 2.5 BF

Turkey to beat Greece 1.42 on BF. Turkey on later and a strong song will swing it.

Lay Spain to be top 10 at 4.5 on BF. Poor song[imo], no voting block, on 2nd. One of the "big 4".

My other Big bet is Denmark to finish top 10 at 1.68 on BF. Incidentally just looking at this market and Turkey are shortist price at 1.07 showing that some people are aware of the diaspora vote[although someone got evens!]


Hope that helps and if you disagree[or have spotted something else] don't be afraid to post. I might have got it wrong!

[Finbar]

Romania at 70.0, Denmark at 16/1 and Germany at 5.3, can't fail surely :)

[GodstoneEagle]

dribs and drabs on germany, romania, georgia and the danes

[herts_palace]

Sorry didn't realise that voting starts after the first song, may help the early ones a bit more.

There are loads of trading opportunities on the winners market on BF. Currently have Denmark backed for £41 at 16.63 and laid £31 at 15.5

[Louis]

Sounds like an experienced traders dream hp ;)

[herts_palace]

Yes it is Louis [not that I would call myself an experienced trader mind] providing you know which way the prices are likely to move.I am happy to be stuck with bets on Denmark or Turkey so I am trading mainly on them. Additionally once you have made a few trades you have a target back and lay price which makes things a lot easier.

[herts_palace]

Germany now favourites at 3.65

[GodstoneEagle]

How's the trading going? Lots of movement on prices.

[herts_palace]

Just had another £50 on Denmark to finish top 10 at evens!!

[herts_palace]

Good GE. Have laid Germany at 3.4 and put in a request to back at 4.0 - currently 3.8. Have backed Denmark for £100 at 16.83 and laid £72 off at 15.5. Have backed turkey for £63 at 13.96 and laid £43 at 12.52. Also have good positions on Romania and Georgia.

[Duke]

Good GE. Have laid Germany at 3.4 and put in a request to back at 4.0 - currently 3.8. Have backed Denmark for £100 at 16.83 and laid £72 off at 15.5. Have backed turkey for £63 at 13.96 and laid £43 at 12.52. Also have good positions on Romania and Georgia.

was thinking of having a dabble before read any of this and my picks were to be

turkey
romania

and then denmark because they are last and will pick up lots of votes... seems you've covered much of this... going to wait until IP before I bet though as I think romania and turkey will drift

[Louis]

HP's having a field day (night?) here ;)

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

Denmark was very good

[GodstoneEagle]

I got denmark at 18.5 with a fiver and now their odds have bloddy flown in

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

That German song was awful, well her singing was

[herts_palace]

All green now on the winners market.Modest win for Germany and big wins for Romania, Georgia, Turkey and Denmark

[GodstoneEagle]

good lad. I'm looking at £33.50 prof if germany win and £77.50 if Denmark do

[Louis]

I'm looking at a loss because I backed Azerbaijan :sob:

[herts_palace]

To summarise

On the Winners Market Germany £146@3.97 Laid £190 at 2.97
Denmark £121@16.69 Laid £103 @15.20 -tried to lay Denmark @ less than evens after the first 2 maximums but wasn't quick enough!
Georgia £21 @62.62 Laid £20 @54
Romania £9 @63.33 Laid £8 @51.88
Turkey £85 @13.97 Laid £65 @12.26

Also backed and laid Azer but differences in prices was marginal

Total profit +£18.34

Top 10 Market +£44.10 [Greened up on Denmark, Georgia and Spain otherwise would have been a lot more]
Top4 Market -£4 Greece bet was a winner but I reded up in play to minimise potential loses[motto avoid losing money!]
Head to Heads +£71.04 consisting of +£59.06 Denmark to finish higher than Israel, +£11.98 Turkey to finish higher than Greece

Total +£129.48

[Louis]

Good stuff HP - and good call on Germany too

[JamTheEagle]

Backed Belgium big to finish top 10 @ 2.10, was laughing after about 5 or 6 sets of results.

[herts_palace]

Ok I may have got this wrong. Satellite [the German entry] has been released already and has topped the German download charts. The Youtube video has more than 5 million hits. One other thought will the Europeans be slightly more pro German now that that they have bailed out the Euro?


Listening to the song I can't help thinking that the final point above carried more sway than I thought.

[herts_palace]

Backed Belgium big to finish top 10 @ 2.10, was laughing after about 5 or 6 sets of results.

Well done JTE it was not a bet I considered although the song was well liked on the internet.

[JamTheEagle]

That German song was awful, well her singing was

It was truly shocking, her woeful accent was painful to listen too, it sounded like Kate Nash on an off day (bearing in mind her on a good day is bad enough!)

[herts_palace]

Anyone done any trading on the England World Cup Squad market?

I have done a mixture of trades and Arbs and I am looking at a reasonable profit. Greened up on quite a few. Star bet was £20 on Paul Parker @20/1 prior to the squad of 30 being announced. I have been able to lay about £70 off at about 3/1 since.

[GodstoneEagle]

I don't think Paul Parker will make the squad mate ;)

[herts_palace]

I don't think Paul Parker will make the squad mate ;)

Doesn't matter I have laid off nearly £80 so make £60 even if he doesn't.

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

Paul Parker?! am i in a time warp?

[GodstoneEagle]

Doesn't matter I have laid off nearly £80 so make £60 even if he doesn't.
I still don't think you're catching my drift ;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Parker_(footballer)

http://www.bridgeviews.co.uk/.a/6a01156fb5bd0d970c011570e50d46970b-800wi

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Parker_(footballer)

http://www.fansfc.com/UploadedImages/Players/Scott%20Parker_633573286844843750.jpg

[herts_palace]

I don't think Paul Parker will make the squad mate ;)

Oops - Can I plead tiredness my Lord?

Actually Paul Parker was a decent right back who could defend. We could do with one of those.

Better check the bet just to make sure it was 20/1 for Scott Parker and not Paul Parker.Might explain why it was 20/1 though. :D

[Finbar]

Romania at 70.0, Denmark at 16/1 and Germany at 5.3, can't fail surely :)

Made a nice profit in the end, got back all my losses overall but made a £10 loss on BF. Azerbaijan started the night at 3.7 so had a big lay on that as even with a good performance I couldn't see it coming in much with their draw, also had Germany for a big green, backed Az back at 4.7 (they peaked at about 4.9 I think) and layed Germany back at 3.4. After that just backed and layed to good effect, had £50 on Denmark at 19.5 before they came on which I layed back at 17.0. Could have layed some of that profit at 2.0 after they got top marks in the first two but didn't, oh welll

In the end I lost £10 on BF and that was only as I layed Germany at 1.22 for a ton having backed them to win with fixed odds, good fun and but for that poor bet on Az on Thursday would have won a lot more.

Main lessons to take away

With 39 votes the effexct of tactical voting is less significant than I thought, though still a factor if close of course

Draw is vital, don't make any big bets before it's done (like I did!!)

Had not realised the Youtube / downloads fact that Herts put up, definitely worth watching oujt for next time, I get the feeling manyv voters were not hearing the German song for the first time

Solo short odds songs may well tend to drift shortly after, singers nerves and the fact they're not pros might be the reason

[Louis]

Thanks for the post match thoughts Fin. These back up Herts Palace's earlier analysis. I backed Azerbaijan on the night at 2/1, having heard excerpts of the main contenders, believing that Azerbaijan had the best song, and the best song would win. I didn't take sufficient account of politics or the draw, which seemingly helped Germany and hindered Azerbaijan (presumably the draw is the order they sing in, later being a big help). And of course the fact that the German song was already a hit in some countries.

Made a nice profit in the end, got back all my losses overall
Interested in this statement - were you trying to 'get back your losses'? Because I've found when I chase my losses, I usually lose more than I win. The dislike of losing takes over and I forget about having value bets.

[Finbar]

No, wasn't chasing losses, would have bet in the same way even without the Azerbaijan bet. Was often very easy to see which of the two favourites were coming in and going out at any time, got caught once (big bet on Az pushed the price in from 4.0 to 3.8 just after I had laid at 4.0 so backed back for a loss) but overall made money backing high when the weight of money was pushing the price in or laying low when prices were on the drift.

X Factor should offer more of the same opportunities I think

[Louis]

No, wasn't chasing losses, would have bet in the same way even without the Azerbaijan bet
So getting back your losses was a result of rational betting, not 'chasing'.

Congratulations ("and jubilations") :cool:

[Finbar]

Well I might have been a bit more committed and determined leading to more trades than I normally would but the majority were well executed so don't think you can call it chasing :p

[herts_palace]

Well done Fin, glad to hear you made a few bob. I'm now convinced that there is money to be made from this market although this year may have been better as there were several good songs which created market fluctuations. I will try to watch both semis next year so that I can get some early bets in.I also realise that I will need to be quicker off the mark in play next year.If I had been quick when the votes came in my profits would have been a lot greater as I could have laid Denmark for under evens[at one stage my profits on them were over £900]. Perhaps I should invest in Bet Angel or similar.

However, I think the reason I won was not beacause of my trading expertise but because I identified songs that were underrated on the exchanges. 3 of the 4 I selected came in on price and the other[Georgia] finished in the top 10. It always seems easier to back then lay, a lot harder to do the reverse[probably because the losses are greater], although I forced myself to do that with Germany and it paid off. I think a good approach is if you set your own prices so that if a price drops significantly below that you lay them and vice versa. I also got my wife's opinions and I think the more opinion[the more varied the audience the better] you can tap into the better.

I'm not sure that the sequence of songs was as significant as I thought it would be, as voting started straight away. For me what let Azer down [apart from any culural and political voting aspects] was that the song was just not catchy as some of the others so after a while you had forgotten it.

I was also pleased with myself that I reded up on one bet - even though the call was wrong in the end. I do believe that you either don't hedge at all or if you do then you "red up" as well as "green up".

As for X Factor it does offer possibilities but my record is patchy at best. I have had a few losses recently as I have got tied up in the "they can't sing to save their lives" thing[although I didn't make that mistake with Jedward as I knew what Cowell was doing]. With this it is even more important to tap in to the teenage/youth thinking before making any decisions.

Fin do you think anyone puts up trades just to inluence the market without intending the bet to be taken - just a thought? Obviously this would need to be behind the current price otherwise they would risk the bet getting taken.

[Finbar]

Am not sure anyone ever puts up a bet thinking that it's too big to be taken, there is just too much money out there. Am sure that if you are smart enough you can manipulate certain markets by taking, for example, all of the 4.4 to 4.9 available to back, then when the market adjusts the new price might settle at 4.6 at which time you can lay off for a profit, a lot easier said than done.

Actually I think some people may seed markets to give an impression of liquidity that may tempt people into the wrong prices if that's what you were getting at?

[herts_palace]

Am not sure anyone ever puts up a bet thinking that it's too big to be taken, there is just too much money out there. Am sure that if you are smart enough you can manipulate certain markets by taking, for example, all of the 4.4 to 4.9 available to back, then when the market adjusts the new price might settle at 4.6 at which time you can lay off for a profit, a lot easier said than done.

Actually I think some people may seed markets to give an impression of liquidity that may tempt people into the wrong prices if that's what you were getting at?

Yep that is exactly what I was getting at.

[herts_palace]

Anyone done any trading on the England World Cup Squad market?

I have done a mixture of trades and Arbs and I am looking at a reasonable profit. Greened up on quite a few. Star bet was £20 on Paul Parker @20/1 prior to the squad of 30 being announced. I have been able to lay about £70 off at about 3/1 since.

Made more from this than Eurovision in the end. There was some fantastic odds available on BF prior to squad being announced. Theo Walcott could have been laid for 1.11 [ I couldn't see it myself] and Warnock could have been backed for at least 5.0. Looking at the Gossip on BBC there was an article in the Daily Mail yesterday suggesting that Baines was homesick. If I had seen that yesterday morning then that coupled with Baines's poor performance against Mexico would have tempted me in. Could have got SWP for 8.0 also. Initially I did have some bets[i.e. Upson not to go] but when 3 experts all included him, I realised I might have this one wrong so I "greened up". In the end had virtually no potential losses at all.

In my opinion a ***** market for trading.

[Finbar]

Nicely done, assumed there wasn't the liquidity for my kind of trading but will keep a more open mind about other markets in future :p

[Louis]

I don't do it much myself, but what I like about this trading is the way it seems to detach you from the players in the market. It seems you don't really care who wins or loses, you're just looking for profit opportunities.

[Finbar]

Right, plan is to (by the end of the World Cup)

1. Only trade over/under 1.5 goals on my Betfair account, no other markets
2. Trade on 26+ matches
3. Average approx 2% profit on bank for each trade in a WC match
4. Average approx 1% profit on any pre WC matches
5. Make at least £300 profit on top of £454 starting bank
6. Must trade out for level loss if bet goes badly (always tempting to leave the +1.5 goals at level or a small profit and the other side as a bad loss)

Will regularly send an updated spreadsheet to the betting masters email address.

Started on June 1st (was too worried about other things to post this up yesterday!)

Let's see how I go! :)

Access spreadsheet at www.gmail.com

username = bbsbettingmasters
password = palacebbs

Holland match last night gave a 1.26% profit, need a bet to be matched at 1.08 on the Brazil game otherwise I may have to get out for pretty much even (or a loss if I leave it too late and end up taking 1.1 as a last resort)

Disclaimer

I may get bored and quit especially if I start badly, hopefully not
Rule 6 likely to get broken if one team is far stronger than the oppo

[Louis]

How will you trade +/- 1.5 goals Fin? Will you bet on over 1.5 or under 1.5?

[Finbar]

Well in the end I got out for a 9p win! If I had waited another minute I would have been matched but wasn't prepared to let it go that close to kick off.

Was not a game I had planned on betting on and am hopefull that WC games will be a lot easier.

The way I trade o/u 1.5 goals is almost always to find games where the price is 1.3 or lower and back the overs (though rarely taking what is available), then laying at lower odds, when the off gets close you get some big bets which take almost any price, not always but often.

I say 1.3 or lower but the best match was the champs league where the price stayed static at 1.5-1.51, from my £400 bank I had £3600 matched at those two prices and made £24, very satisfying and from a bigger bank would have been even better. Hoping WC will be like that but 2-3% of bank should be quite doable. Will have the odd losing game I expect especially if I go for the higher prices (i.e. 1.4 or bigger)

Safe games are the least profitable, Barca / Madrid at home you can gurantee big late money for the overs no matter what the price

Still miffed I didn't wait that little bit longer in the Brazil match, £8k traded right before the off.

Next one will be the Spain game tomorrow, think I'll leave the Poland match tonight unless there looks to be a definite opportunity (famous last words)

[herts_palace]

Nicely done, assumed there wasn't the liquidity for my kind of trading but will keep a more open mind about other markets in future :p

I'm not sure about that Fin. There was often a big difference between bet and lay prices [ Upson, Adam Johnson and Joe Cole] but a fair bit of activity. In the last 2-3 days I had both lay and back bets accepted within a short time period. What also helped was that Bookies showed a big variance in prices as well.

Just counted - a total of 84 bets or lays on Betfair for this market!

[Finbar]

Nice :p

Just taken the 1.19 there on Spain o1.5 goals tomorrow, am certain 1.18 will be matched by the morning, bookies best odds (often a good indication but you can't rely on it) are 1.15. Hopefully make 2 or 3 trades on that market

[herts_palace]

Right, plan is to (by the end of the World Cup)

1. Only trade over/under 1.5 goals on my Betfair account, no other markets


I may get bored and quit especially if I start badly, hopefully not
Rule 6 likely to get broken if one team is far stronger than the oppo

Is the fact that you will only trade on o/u 1.5 to test the viability of the market for trading? Or are there other reasons you are not including other markets?

Also why is 6 likely to be broken if 1 team is much stronger than the other?[Edit - now understand this] As I see it there are 2 major factors in this market.

1. How quickly the 1st goal is scored [if any]
2. The likelihood of there being another goal once a goal is scored.Obvioulsly if 1 team is much stronger than the other and the weaker team get the first goal then the market will be a lot differerent than if the reverse happens.

I would have thought that the o/u 2.5 is more interesting as it is more balanced. Why are you not trading on this market where the potential for trades would apparently be greater?

[Finbar]

I only do 1.5 goals as that seems to have the least volatility and be the most predictable. 3.5 can have the same characteristics but doesn't have the same big lump bets at almost any price which are always nice to have.

All the trading is pre event by the way.

6 is easy to break as rather than take, for example, a £5 loss irrespective of who wins it's often very tempting to have one small green or zero on the overs and the under 1.5 (always the least likely outcome) at £-20 for example, if it goes wrong takes a good trade to recover it.

Requires patience but if I can get ball rolling it is very satisfying as the losses are quite rare.

In short the unders / overs markets (pretty much all of them) are fairly predictable and have a lot of money going through them (actually that's their main attraction) so if you can make £450 make you money then you can pretty much do the same for £2500 at not far off the same profitability, not normally the case in markets outside of Win Lose Draw. My plan is to get my bank into 4 figures sooner rather than later. I just need to only use my Betfair account for this and not get involved in in running snooker betting, tricky as it's such fun! :D

[GodstoneEagle]

As always fin, I will watch intently and make inane comments :)

[Finbar]

Well it's something to keep us entertained even if it doesn't lead to my retirement quite yet...

[herts_palace]

All the trading is pre event by the way.

:D

Apologies I was forgetting that key point.

[Lord_Muffin]

Spain match is 1.22 Over 1.5 goals on BF at the moment.

[Louis]

Spain match is 1.22 Over 1.5 goals on BF at the moment.
Not much value in that bet - could conceivably be 0-0 or 1-0

[Lord_Muffin]

I agree. Was thinking of Finbars trading.

[Finbar]

Spain match is 1.22 Over 1.5 goals on BF at the moment.

Yep my 1.18 was matched overnight, it's been steadily climbing (in line with the o2.5 goals which has drifted like a barge) all day. Managed to back at 6.2 (unders) and then at 1.2 (overs) quite a bit. Waiting for the last £50 of my money to be matched at 1.21 (am at the front of the queue) to secure a £13 (shade under 3%) win no matter what

Main tool today has been betting on the side that the bulk of the money isn't, most noticably no one was laying at 6.0 when trying to back at 1.2

Had my 1.18 not been matched overnight (£1.5k was) then I would like to think I would have got out at 1.19 for zero profit and then made the same profit on the drift, not so sure I would though... Still more profit from this match than I expected (even if I need to get out at higher than 1.21 for the final £50)

Just backed the unders at 5.3 to get out at £12 profit, 2.6%ish which am happy with (could have been better but o2.5 has drifted a lot)

+11.34 for u1.5 goals
+12.15 for o1.5 goals

List of my bets so far if anyone is interested (not sure if these will be leggible or not, have done average odds as the other way would not have been)


Under 1.5 Goals 6.07 £225.34 £1,143.60
Ref: Bet matched:

Over 1.5 Goals 1.2 £1,911.16 £387.89
Ref: Bet matched:

£2,136.50
Lay Backer's
Odds Backer's
Stake Payout
Liability
Lay Backer's
Odds Backer's
Stake Payout Liability
Under 1.5 Goals 6 £66.00 £396.00 £330.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Over 1.5 Goals 1.19 £1,109.50 £1,325.26 £215.76
Ref: Bet matched:
£1,175.50

[Lord_Muffin]

Is that you done for the day then Finbar or do you expect it come back down to 1.18 or even lower?

[Finbar]

quite surprised (and reassuring) how little the 1.5 has drifted compared to the 2.5

1.5 gone from 1.19 this morning to 1.23 to back now
2.5 gone from 1.60 this morning to 1.77 to back now

10% increase vs a 3.5%ish increase, pretty much why I prefer 1.5 as the variance is much less (and I still wouldn't be surprised to see some late backers at any price forcing the price down to 1.2 or 1.21 near kick off)

[Finbar]

Is that you done for the day then Finbar or do you expect it come back down to 1.18 or even lower?

Done for the day, prefer not to get involved in the last hour if poss as funny things happen and this is meant to be almost zero risk. Looking at the o2.5 price I think it might not come in, might be some o1.5 / o2.5 backers trying to trade out forcing the price up as well

Quite chuffed that the thing I fear most (a drift) still didn't stop me from making a profit, quite the opposite, in the Holland game there was more money traded, the price fell as hoped and I made less

[Finbar]

1.25 now and still drifting...

[Louis]

People might be realising that the game might not be as one-sided as they thought. I think 1.25 is too low

[Finbar]

Tricky one, can't see Spain not scoring at least two, even if stars are rested the non stars will want to impress...mind you didn't quite work that way for England!

[Louis]

I think Spain will probably score 2, but the odds on 'over 2.5 goals' are poor (South Korea play a defensive game).

[Finbar]

The market knew!

[Louis]

The market knew!
You mean the odds on +1.5 goals lengthened before the game, and as the match finished 1-0 they were moving in what proved to be the right direction. You could also argue that the market didn't know, because 1.25 was much too low ;)

[Finbar]

Which is why I like that market to trade so much, diverse opinions! 1.28 (the SP) looked big to me, still luckyily I didn't care if it was over or under :)

[ardeo]

Just tried some arbing on England.

England were 1.34 to beat Bangladesh (a good price I thought anyway) and England could be laid at 1.3 to win the series 2-0, i.e not win this final test.

I thought this was a definite arb, but i've probably just cocked up my figures as I did it in a rush.

Took the £40 lay on england 2-0 to put me +38 and -12.
Then put £40 back on england to win to put me on -40 and +12.54.

So i make it that if England win I win 54p and if they don't i lose £2. Which is about 1.27 or something, less than the price to back.

Is this me buggering it up or just the margins too small and my 5% commission taking out any potential profit?

[herts_palace]

Which is why I like that market to trade so much, diverse opinions! 1.28 (the SP) looked big to me, still luckyily I didn't care if it was over or under :)

That's why I like both trading and Arbing. You don't have to be able to know what the result will be [or probably be] you just need to know the market[or bookies in the case of Arbs] and the factors affecting them. An appreciation of Value is useful. Then wait for the event to start and put your feet up.:D

One thing I would be interested in studying. Where there is a marked difference between the Bookies and Betfair - who usualy gets it right or is it 50 - 50? I am particularly interested in the infrequent cases [not rare fortuntely!] where Betfair's price is shorter than 1 or more of the bookies.

Rhetorical question by the way!

[herts_palace]

Just tried some arbing on England.

England were 1.34 to beat Bangladesh (a good price I thought anyway) and England could be laid at 1.3 to win the series 2-0, i.e not win this final test.

I thought this was a definite arb, but i've probably just cocked up my figures as I did it in a rush.

Took the £40 lay on england 2-0 to put me +38 and -12.
Then put £40 back on england to win to put me on -40 and +12.54.

So i make it that if England win I win 54p and if they don't i lose £2. Which is about 1.27 or something, less than the price to back.

Is this me buggering it up or just the margins too small and my 5% commission taking out any potential profit?

No you should be able to Arb on those quite easily even with 5% commission. You just needed to put a bit more on the lay to make the bet work. For example:

£100 at 1.34 will give you £34
£107 laid at 1.3 will give return you 101.65 - £100 = +£1.65 if the lay wins and will win you £34- £32.10, that is +£1.90. if it loses.

The difference in price required get a lot smaller when you arb at prices below evens and this is where a lot of bargains can be found. Only problem is that you need a big bank and the profits are a small % of this. Still smashes the interest rates offered by the banks though!


As a rule of thumb as long as the prices are more than 5% apart then you should be able to make a profit. So if a team is 1.5 ie 1/2 then if the other side is better than 1.525 then you can make a profit. At 1.10 you just have to find 1.11!!!!

[ardeo]

Ok cheers fella, I took all that was available at 1.3. I'm not sure what i'd of how much i'd of had to bet to guarentee a small profit. Is there an easy way of working it out?

[herts_palace]

Ok cheers fella, I took all that was available at 1.3. I'm not sure what i'd of how much i'd of had to bet to guarentee a small profit. Is there an easy way of working it out?

Can use one of these. I must admit I don't use them myself so if these aren't suitable I suggest you just google "arb calculator".

The first looks more simple and can handle 1 side having commission but not the other

If you stick £40 in the back you will see that you would have needed £41.13 in the lay to make your £1.16 profit.

http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/calculator/index.php

The other one looks more extensive and offers quite a few alternatives!

http://www.arbcruncher.com/free_popup.asp?type=3

[ardeo]

Can use one of these. I must admit I don't use them myself so if these aren't suitable I suggest you just google "arb calculator".

The first looks more simple and can handle 1 side having commission but not the other

If you stick £40 in the back you will see that you would have needed £41.13 in the lay to make your £1.16 profit.

http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/calculator/index.php

The other one looks more extensive and offers quite a few alternatives!

http://www.arbcruncher.com/free_popup.asp?type=3

Ta :p

[GodstoneEagle]

How about season-long betting on the Championship?

Just got £7 on at 70.00

[herts_palace]

Who did you bet on?

[GodstoneEagle]

sorry forgot to say :o

Palace obviously

[herts_palace]

I've offered my thoughts on the Championship odds thread but I cannot believe what I have been reading. No wonder the bookies make money. Can someone please tell me I am not going mad!

http://www.cpfc.org/forums/showthread.php?t=203398

[GodstoneEagle]

Way I see it:

£7 is nothing to lose.

If we go on a good run at any point the odds will come in hugely from 70. Lay it for guaranteed profit.

Done :)

[herts_palace]

Way I see it:

£7 is nothing to lose.

If we go on a good run at any point the odds will come in hugely from 70. Lay it for guaranteed profit.

Done :)

Why not back all the other outsiders as well then or why are Palace better than the other outsiders?

I don't like losing money, whether it is 7p, £7 or £7000. I get a knotted feeling in my stomach when I lose if it was not a well reasoned bet. For me it would mean I would have to make £7 more on another bet. If you do this to make ends meet then you cannot afford to think like that I'm afraid. I try to be particularly careful where my own team is concerned, as we are all biased to some extent.

The only time I gamble for fun is when I go to the casino and then it is for entertainment. All the other times I try to ensure that I get value for money on my bets.

If you are doing it with the intention to trade then I think it is a better bet, although I would still want to see the odds a bit longer before I would get involved.

[GodstoneEagle]

I genuinely think Palace are one of few in there with value at a price like 70s.

Especially as a back to lay proposition, I've read your points on why we won't do well but similarly I think if players like Speroni, Danns and Ambrose stay (now likely) and a couple of decent signings we could be top 10 in a division this tight. The team spirit is already second to none, the very strong teams have been replaced by questionable ones although the weak ones have been replaced by better sides. With lots of clubs facing uncertain financial situations, something which can affect on-pitch matters, ours is looking to be completely clear and this will translate on the pitch.

I think we will finish between tenth and fourteenth but if at any point this season we hit a good run I'll be able to lay that off and get a profit. What's nonsensical about that?

[herts_palace]

I genuinely think Palace are one of few in there with value at a price like 70s.

Especially as a back to lay proposition, I've read your points on why we won't do well but similarly I think if players like Speroni, Danns and Ambrose stay (now likely) and a couple of decent signings we could be top 10 in a division this tight. The team spirit is already second to none, the very strong teams have been replaced by questionable ones although the weak ones have been replaced by better sides. With lots of clubs facing uncertain financial situations, something which can affect on-pitch matters, ours is looking to be completely clear and this will translate on the pitch.

I think we will finish between tenth and fourteenth but if at any point this season we hit a good run I'll be able to lay that off and get a profit. What's nonsensical about that?

I think we need more than 2 decent signings to make us into a top 10 side. We would need 2 very good signings and 4-5 decent signings imo. Don't forget we are talking about the title not promotion. Our last 14 games were won 3 drawn 6 and lost 5, ie.15 points from 14 games - that's relegation form. Our squad is very thin. I would agree with you on team spirit, but that will last only so long. I would also agree with you on the teams coming down. However, the teams coming up are good and both Norwich and Leeds could put in a title challenge. Finanical problems for other clubs may mean that we don't get relegated but won't help us win the title if those clubs were unlikely to win the title anyway. My beat guess is that we will finish around 18th, but that depends on the manager, the consortium and loads of other variables I can't get my head around. I hope you are more right than me though!

The reason I am not convinced about the trade is that I think our price will go out before it goes in.I will wait and if it reaches 100/1 then I will consider a trade.

[GodstoneEagle]

The thing in this league is that it the 2 'good signings' you talk about can come from nothing.

Darren Ambrose on a free last year from a relegated side was met with a mixed reception and look how that turned out. Another signing like that, maybe a surprising loan from a premiership club and we could be seriously in business.

[herts_palace]

The thing in this league is that it the 2 'good signings' you talk about can come from nothing.

Darren Ambrose on a free last year from a relegated side was met with a mixed reception and look how that turned out. Another signing like that, maybe a surprising loan from a premiership club and we could be seriously in business.

That's true but we need more than that. Firstly we need a good, astute manager which is something we had last year but not at present. Secondly we need 4 decent signings in addition to the 2 good ones, and at the same time avoid losing any of our first 11. Thirdly we need to be able to pay attractive wages[something we could do with Ambrose], otherwise these quality signings will go elsewhere.
When we get all of these I will start thinking about a title shout and would expect our odds to tumble. At the moment they reflect our predicament.

Currently our side is weaker than we were at the start of last season when we had one of the best managers in the league, one of the best young attacking players ever to grace Selhurst park[Moses] and a good solid defender[Fonte] and I don't remember people taliking about the title then. Since then we have lost all three and also Carle.

I think it is the odds that is confusing everyone. Sometimes some teams deserve to be 69/1.

[Finbar]

I genuinely think Palace are one of few in there with value at a price like 70s.

Especially as a back to lay proposition

I would wait till the fixtures come out and the CVA issue is sorted, I still think that even with a nice opening run and the CVA sorted out we'll be 50.0 or bigger

Genuinely amazed to see QPR at the top of the betting

[Louis]

Genuinely amazed to see QPR at the top of the betting
The Warnock factor?

[Finbar]

Right, plan is to (by the end of the World Cup)

1. Only trade over/under 1.5 goals on my Betfair account, no other markets
2. Trade on 26+ matches
3. Average approx 2% profit on bank for each trade in a WC match
4. Average approx 1% profit on any pre WC matches
5. Make at least £300 profit on top of £454 starting bank
6. Must trade out for level loss if bet goes badly (always tempting to leave the +1.5 goals at level or a small profit and the other side as a bad loss)

Will regularly send an updated spreadsheet to the betting masters email address.

Started on June 1st (was too worried about other things to post this up yesterday!)

Let's see how I go! :)

Access spreadsheet at www.gmail.com

username = bbsbettingmasters
password = palacebbs

Holland match last night gave a 1.26% profit, need a bet to be matched at 1.08 on the Brazil game otherwise I may have to get out for pretty much even (or a loss if I leave it too late and end up taking 1.1 as a last resort)

Disclaimer

I may get bored and quit especially if I start badly, hopefully not
Rule 6 likely to get broken if one team is far stronger than the oppo

Well true to form I broke rule 1 :D Could help but do a couple of trades on Phil Taylor and Britain's Got Talent over the weekend.

All in all week 1 I made 7% on top of my bank (£33 made on my £454 starting bank). Not a great return but no losers (1 9p win and 5 successful trades)

Think week 2 could be sparce unless days 1 to 3 of the WC are profitable, would be happy with another 7%. Targets for WC trades are 2% on top of bank per trade which may or may not be easy, will be interesting to find out, up till now have aimed for 1% per trade which I'm slightly ahead of. Spain friendly tomorrow which might be ok though will not assume the odds will come in again.

Spreadsheet updated for anyone who wants to see it, sent to the Betting Masters email address above

[ardeo]

Nice bit of profit already Finbar, well done fella.

[herts_palace]

All in all week 1 I made 7% on top of my bank (£33 made on my £454 starting bank). Not a great return but no losers (1 9p win and 5 successful trades)



I haven't worked out what that is a year but 7% on a week looks pretty good to me.

[Finbar]

Yep that's why I'm trying to concentrate on markets where you can still increase a big bank, a lot of tradable markets are only tradable for small money, the under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 markets you can trade for big bucks (though of course sometimes only be matched for smaller amount but there are some people who place bets of £2k+ at a time for any significant game)

Another similar markets is Phil Taylor, tends to be backed at any price against most opponents so you just back him at what you can knowing you can lay it later on (not quite that simple as often you have to lay at 36.0 rather than back at 1.03 for example but but not far off)

7% a week till end of the year would do nicely :-)

3% a week = £1.1k by the end of the year from starting bank of £454
5% a week = £1.9k by the end of the year from starting bank of £454
7% a week = £3.4k by the end of the year from starting bank of £454

Will be a dip in trading opportunities after the world cup but hopefully can make enough profit during it to cover me for that time

[ardeo]

Are you looking just to continue to build it to a certain point Finbar, and then retire, or maybe buy Palace and make us into the next Man City? ;)

Or are you planning on just taking out a bit now and then?

[Finbar]

I think that's a bridge I would cross when I came to it! This time I am better at it and more disciplined than last time. Golden rule is to only trade pre event so if there is a loss it's not a big one (though when it comes to reality programmes what is pre event is a grey area)

I would say there does come a point when the numbers become too big to trade to the same profitability and if you get to 4 figures then there comes the possibility the money might be needed for other things, plan is to keep building it for now though, 5 figures by 2012 :) (£112.34 being the five figures I suspect)

Do find it very satisfying though

[N Herts Eagle]

Just seen this thread...been trading on Betfair since April nothing large always just for fun finally lost the orignal bank of £25 recently I told you nothing large.......the best time was the Snooker backing and laying in play was very profitable made £15 even with two heavy losses......one was Ronnie O Sullivan losing a frame :veryangry which cost me £7 and another was in the Final £5....the idea was to always back and lay and quit on each game when I had a green screen the Ronniie frame I ignored this and was chasing a loss...the end result though on snooker was a £15 profit despite the losses. Another area was politics and did well on election night
Since then been looking at other markets and its been a disaster particularly football and betting in play (will avoid this in the World Cup) but as a learning experience it was useful. Finance being another where with two results it should have been easy but fluctuated to much.
For the World Cup topped the bank up to £25 again the idea being to come out of the World Cup with at least the £25 in place. So far I have a small bet on Paraquay to win group (60p) at no stake by backing and laying.
Also sitting is a bet on Mexico to win their group which I intend to lay off if they get any result against South Africa as the odds should shorten. The last two are to win the competition Holland as a senisible bet and then Paraquay at 120 as I reckon the odds will fall enough to make a lay bet of interest if they qualify. I am doing it for fun not staking anything I cannot lose and just to make the whole competition more intresting. Any suggested bets let me know.:p All bets are the min £2 I am not out to make a fortune :)

Things I have learnt not chasing a loss is hard to avoid and trying to maximise winnings is a way to lose more than you win particularly in the football market in play lost £3 of a £4 win on Costa Rica doing that though if Switzerland had not missed a sitter in the last seconds was looking at £9 and did not take the £10 off Switzerland to win left it to late.

[Louis]

trying to maximise winnings is a way to lose more than you win particularly in the football market in play lost £3 of a £4 win on Costa Rica doing that though if Switzerland had not missed a sitter in the last seconds was looking at £9 and did not take the £10 off Switzerland to win left it to late.
Sorry N Herts, can you explain please?

[N Herts Eagle]

On the recent Switzerland Costa Rica game forget the complete pattern but I had turned the game green on Befair....Switzerland had started a strong favourites they were at home, I had a bet on Costa Rica with the intention of laying it of during the game which I did once Costa Rica scored. I was sitting with a green screen where I think I had Costa Rica £4 The Draw £4 and Swiss was about £12. I took some of the Costa Rica winnings and topped up on the draw as Swiss were basically attacking and looked certain to score. Unfortunatly their forward line could not hit a barn door from 4 yards as evidence by the forward who in the last minute of injury time missed an open goal with the goalkeeper laying on the floor after making a save the forward curled one just curled it away from not into the goal

[Finbar]

So basically you were playing with your profit, making one side more green at the expense of the other, great if it comes off and you can do it a few times. Tennis is good for that kind of trading

Impressed with your staking N Herts, very patient!!

Am now waiting for my 1.54 and 1.55 to be matched on o1.5 goals in the SA vs Mexico game tomorrow, with £15k at 1.51 and 1.52 I can't see the price coming in any time soon. I suspect though that in the hours before the game there could be huge bets placed though

Currently -£409 / +£766 having made a bit of an error yesterday (was +£4 on both sides on Tuesday), target is to make £9 from the game

[ardeo]

So basically you were playing with your profit, making one side more green at the expense of the other, great if it comes off and you can do it a few times. Tennis is good for that kind of trading

Impressed with your staking N Herts, very patient!!

Am now waiting for my 1.54 and 1.55 to be matched on o1.5 goals in the SA vs Mexico game tomorrow, with £15k at 1.51 and 1.52 I can't see the price coming in any time soon. I suspect though that in the hours before the game there could be huge bets placed though

Currently -£409 / +£766 having made a bit of an error yesterday (was +£4 on both sides on Tuesday), target is to make £9 from the game

Just let it roll Finbar and pray for goals ;)

[Finbar]

Would certainly make for an interesting start to the World Cup! But no :D

[N Herts Eagle]

The idea was not to particulalry to make money at the moment it was about what markets it was possible in. I intend to retire soon a little early but had a few health problems. I need something to do when I do. I have an eye on a small river cruiser as the main get me out of the house and do something healthy, but during the cold winter months Betfair Trading was one idea of how to spend a pleasent few hours.
Tennis is one sport I will be looking at unfortunatly I am still working so Wimbledon clashing with the World Cup might not leave me enough time to really get to understand the market.
The snooker market was strange it would appear as soon as a player sank a ball the odds would tumble in most snooker games its not about the first ball and not many games are won with large breaks on the first visit to the table
it would leave plenty of opportunity to trade profit. Once I had the hang of it I had a series of bets which won a few pence to a couple of pounds at little risk. Most nights I could have a run of small wins which could be cut back by a £2 loss but within the two weeks I had increased the bank by 50% The Ronnie loss taught me not to lay off to cover a loss however mind you he missed a simple blue. Snooker though did teach me another thing about in play trading if your serious make sure you are watching as live as possible the second or two delay say on Virgin compared to say live on BBC and I would guess at the event makes a difference you could watch the price fall or rise on betfair before the shot was taken.
Will look at Denmark to see if there is any opportunity there in the World Cup they have an easy group to get out off and then make a decision on Ivory Coast or Portugal.....somewhere I think between the odds on the group, the game, and the Winners there is an opportunity.

[Finbar]

Nice, I would say that if you want to do it as a winter hobby then Wimbledon wouldn't be the best tournament to practice on anyway as you need ones with less liquidity, though even smaller tennis tournaments have plenty to trade on though they might display different characteristics to a major with less clued up people betting

If I could have had 2 weeks of to trade in running snooker I am certain I would have come out comfortably on top, lots of over reactions to early pots :p

I think tactics like laying Italy / France for the WC prior to their openers and backing them back after could be profitable, both have tricky ties and I can't imagine the downside would be all that great if they won unless either won dramatically (which I can't see!)