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GodstoneEagle
25-05-2011, 01:03 AM
I'll be working for sportingbet.com covering the Copa America in July but thought it's worth looking at the outright odds early doors.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/copa-america/winner

Uruguay are in the toughest group but consensus down that way is that Tabarez has got it right and 14/1 is a price that should be tradeable for sure. Your risk is that they're in the group with Mexico and Chile. Chile are 3rd faves behind Arg and Brazil but they've got a different coach to the World Cup, where they impressed so many people. Still an impressive outfit though with some top players.

Colombia at 33/1 is a good shout assuming you think it will be tradeable if they qualify. I would be very confident of them going through, they've got some terrific players and that price will surely come in.

More preview stuff will come when I write it for other sources.

Lenny Again
29-05-2011, 09:34 PM
And Tevez is back in the fold, thank god.

Louis
31-05-2011, 03:35 PM
History of the competition -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copa_Am%C3%A9rica


2011 competition in Argentina -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Copa_Am%C3%A9rica


Brazil have won 4 out of the last 5, including the last 2, with Argentina being runners up in these. It's hard to see past one of these two winning it, with Brazil 2/1 and Argentina 5/4 at the moment -

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/copa-america/winner

Louis
31-05-2011, 03:42 PM
There's a useful thread on the Punters Lounge forum on this ...

http://forum.punterslounge.com/f8/copa-america-2011-a-117600/

GodstoneEagle
31-05-2011, 03:48 PM
good preview of Paraguay's side on latest hand of pod podcast, most squads announced very soon

BW_Palace
31-05-2011, 06:18 PM
There's a useful thread on the Punters Lounge forum on this ...

http://forum.punterslounge.com/f8/copa-america-2011-a-117600/

I wouldn't take your advice from PL. In general it's a load of 'think they're shrewds.' As in, talking like they win but I'd hazard a guess that only a tiny % of them, if any, do. Analysis such as




IMO everything is set for Argentina to be champions one more time. They lost in the final against Brazil last years and right now I don't know how they could lost it.

is just terrible.

Louis
31-05-2011, 07:44 PM
I wouldn't take your advice from PL. In general it's a load of 'think they're shrewds.' As in, talking like they win but I'd hazard a guess that only a tiny % of them, if any, do
Yeah I know BW. I try not to blindly follow other peoples' advice, even yours ;). But there's sometimes some very useful advice and information there, especially from people who follow particular teams, players or leagues.

Sick Bucket
31-05-2011, 07:59 PM
I wouldn't take your advice from PL. In general it's a load of 'think they're shrewds.' As in, talking like they win but I'd hazard a guess that only a tiny % of them, if any, do. Analysis such as



is just terrible.

Serious question where else do you take advice from? I look at punterslounge and bethelp mostly.

AJ8
31-05-2011, 08:15 PM
Columbia are 50/1 with Bet 365

GodstoneEagle
31-05-2011, 10:02 PM
I'm probably covering it for Racing Post as well as Sportingbet.com

Anyone who remembers our serious profiteering on the S American U20s in January should prepare themselves, should be some good value in this tournament with some sides only being u23 outfits preparing for Olympics*.


*due to this, I'd not be backing Mexico at all. That group will be fascinating though.

Louis
01-06-2011, 11:05 AM
Serious question where else do you take advice from? I look at punterslounge and bethelp mostly.
Good question SB. Personally, I like to make my own mind up. But, just as on this forum, there are a few places where you can read other peoples opinions. What I prefer is to see a reasoned argument presenting different sides of an argument - e.g are Barcelona good value at xxx or are Man United better value at yyy, or is under 2.5 goals or over 2.5 goals better value at these odds? Sources I value for info and advice on football betting are:

Here ;)

Punters Lounge forum - what I like about them is they have moderators who encourage posters to provide back up reasoning for their tips

The Racing Post (not available online, you have to buy the paper)

GodstoneEagle
01-06-2011, 11:19 AM
RP stuff is available online if you know the right people ;)

Louis
01-06-2011, 12:30 PM
Just watched Peru draw 0-0 with Japan, in Japan. Japan were the better side in the first half, but Peru had by far the better of it in the last 15 minutes of the game, taking the game to Japan and forcing the Japanese onto the back foot. They won the corner count by about 10-1 and the Japanese goalie was probably man of the match. Makes me think Peru could give Chile and Mexico (and perhaps even Uruguay) a run for their money, and certainly look good value at 200/1.

GodstoneEagle
01-06-2011, 01:11 PM
Haven't seen much of Peru. What shape did they play and what was their system? Bare in mind, of course, that this wasn't their strongest side at all, although Farfan was in the team I think.

Louis
01-06-2011, 01:19 PM
Haven't seen much of Peru. What shape did they play and what was their system? Bare in mind, of course, that this wasn't their strongest side at all, although Farfan was in the team I think.
Sorry didn't notice the 'shape' but they attacked in groups with loads of pace and width. Their overall style was a bit like Japan's - tough, hard running - with added individual flair in attack. There was only one team looking likely to win in the last 10 minutes - Peru. They seemed to play on the break in the first half, but then really go for it late in the game.

BW_Palace
01-06-2011, 01:24 PM
Good question SB. Personally, I like to make my own mind up. But, just as on this forum, there are a few places where you can read other peoples opinions. What I prefer is to see a reasoned argument presenting different sides of an argument - e.g are Barcelona good value at xxx or are Man United better value at yyy, or is under 2.5 goals or over 2.5 goals better value at these odds? Sources I value for info and advice on football betting are:

Here ;)

Punters Lounge forum - what I like about them is they have moderators who encourage posters to provide back up reasoning for their tips

The Racing Post (not available online, you have to buy the paper)

The problem is 'reasoning' is worthless unless it can be translated into proper pricing. 'I think goals are likely' doesn't really tell me anything apart from 'goals should be high' - sure, but how much higher than the price at the moment? Why is the current price not correct? Standard trap people fall into is the 'betting on what I think will happen' trap whilst being insensitive to the actual odds. A bet on o2.5 is the same @ 2 as it is @ 1.9 to people whilst in reality that's enough to turn a bet from +EV to -EV.

Louis
01-06-2011, 01:43 PM
Standard trap people fall into is the 'betting on what I think will happen' trap whilst being insensitive to the actual odds
:p - any good discussion should include the odds or price.

BW_Palace
01-06-2011, 03:12 PM
...but also should include what people *think* price should be imo, or at least a strong indication.

Louis
01-06-2011, 03:20 PM
...but also should include what people *think* price should be imo, or at least a strong indication.
:p

(As this shows how much value there may be in the odds).

Beckenham Boy
10-06-2011, 09:55 AM
Will teams in Mexico's group be good value now with the news that 5 Mexican players tested positive for a banned substance?

GodstoneEagle
12-06-2011, 06:16 PM
already were BB. Mexico side isn't their full squad, their best team has to go to the CONCACAF gold cup as they are a member of that federation and are contractually bliged to put out the best side they can for that competition. They are only guests at the Copa America by invitation (ditto Costa Rica, and like USA have been in the past for example.)

GodstoneEagle
20-06-2011, 09:29 PM
Lavezzi for top scorer is my value bet. Best supply available and regular starter.

20-25/1 some places

GodstoneEagle
20-06-2011, 09:33 PM
Just found 40/1 on skybet. e/w'd

BW_Palace
21-06-2011, 01:06 AM
Lavezzi for top scorer is my value bet. Best supply available and regular starter.

20-25/1 some places

Who are offering odds bar Sky?

Going to be pricing up the market properly in a week or so's time...off my gut feeling, 20/1 looks bad - especially if 40/1 is elsewhere. There's no way there's value in the 20/1 if there's a 40/1 available (unless you think you've got a 150% edge in a massively overrounded market?...)

His goalscoring record at international level is 12/1 which is hardly strong whilst domestically he's never been prolific - he gets about 7 goals a season. If the winner of the golden boot averages say 5 goals, you can see why the odds are as long as they are. Not to mention that there's every possibility that Lavezzi gets dropped midway through the tournament if he's under performing - it's not like they're short of attacking options in the squad.

edit: Although having looked at it roughly there *might* be some value in 40/1.

PeterH
21-06-2011, 01:09 AM
Chile and Uruguay cast iron from the Chile, Uruguay, Mexico, Peru group.

GodstoneEagle
21-06-2011, 01:23 AM
Who are offering odds bar Sky?

Going to be pricing up the market properly in a week or so's time...off my gut feeling, 20/1 looks bad - especially if 40/1 is elsewhere. There's no way there's value in the 20/1 if there's a 40/1 available (unless you think you've got a 150% edge in a massively overrounded market?...)

His goalscoring record at international level is 12/1 which is hardly strong whilst domestically he's never been prolific - he gets about 7 goals a season. If the winner of the golden boot averages say 5 goals, you can see why the odds are as long as they are. Not to mention that there's every possibility that Lavezzi gets dropped midway through the tournament if he's under performing - it's not like they're short of attacking options in the squad.
sportingbet certainly are offering odds. that's where the 20ish/1 came from

I'm on at 40s which is a cracking e/w bet IMO as he is affirmed by Checho as a first choice striker (they play 4-3-3 with Messi false 9 and Lavezzi and Di Maria cutting in). Tevez and Aguero got in the squad but only after lots of political wrangling, he doesn't like either of them in this system particularly.

With a starting berth and being fed plenty of chances by Messi playing the false 9, he will have plenty of opportunities as tonight when he scored early on vs Albania before being replaced.

Similarly they have two easy group games where they could get big scores, this can be a big contributor in competitions, remember Klose getting a hat-trick vs Saudi Arabia in the world cup? he won the golden boot with 5. If you can get a few goals vs weak opponents then you're well on your way and their group is by far the easiest.


I will be interested to see your thoughts when you've priced it up, Brian. The other good shout for me is Pato. He is likely to be starting up top in the 4-2-3-1 for Brazil yet he's 14/1. Neymar's price is far shorter although he plays wide left. I appreciate he will still get in those positions but I wouldn't be betting on Neymar at such a short price.

Other considerations are who takes free kicks and pens. For Chile, Mati Fernandez or Humberto Suazo would be your best bets. Uruguay, you'd expect Forlan, although Suarez would be involved in the discussions.

GodstoneEagle
21-06-2011, 01:27 AM
ah, it seems that they've not put their prices online at SB but they gave me them via email so I could do their promo copy for them.

will link them when they're up

BW_Palace
21-06-2011, 01:34 AM
Whilst Lavezzi is nailed on to start at the start of the tourney, it's not exactly unlikely he is dropped if he does not perform straight away, which is obviously disastrous for his implied odds.

Definitely agree with Pato, would be on that if I had a Sky Bet account. Only problem there is that he's not fully fit and he may either not start initially or may not start after a game or two if it's apparent he's not ready.

Will be putting a book up on Betfair when the market is up and all the squad lists are released

GodstoneEagle
21-06-2011, 01:38 AM
you a big user of the BF forums then? would you recommend them?

BW_Palace
21-06-2011, 01:48 AM
Nooooo - I meant I'll be putting up a full back/lay book for the TGS market once it's up. BF forums are a shambles...99% of the posts there are garbage, wouldn't be taking any advice from there at all. Lots of people thinking they're professionals or expert 'traders.'

It's one thing posting on say...the BBS about your thoughts on X, but why would someone who is beating Betfair post about it on Betfair? 'Hi everyone, I'm taking your money...and here's how!'

GodstoneEagle
21-06-2011, 11:21 AM
Brian, you know how markets shift much better than I, but I see Argentina as way too short for Copa America at 2.00, will there be a lay to back possibility do you think?

BW_Palace
21-06-2011, 01:31 PM
Have little to no experience backing the outrights...wouldn't trust my own opinion on those.

Louis
21-06-2011, 01:45 PM
I see Argentina as way too short for Copa America at 2.00, will there be a lay to back possibility do you think?
2.0 does look too short for a 12-horse race including Brazil

GodstoneEagle
21-06-2011, 02:09 PM
You'd lay that and even if they got to the final you'd not likely see them shorter than evens, would you? Especially as it will almost certainly be vs Brazil.

BW_Palace
21-06-2011, 03:13 PM
Argentina would definitely be miles shorter than evens vs any team in the Final, including Brazil due to home advantage.

GodstoneEagle
21-06-2011, 03:30 PM
If it helps your research BW. Chilean journo just got back to me:

Penales Suazo, tiros libres Matías Fernández.

I'm sure you can translate :)

BW_Palace
21-06-2011, 04:46 PM
Appreciated, but is known info given Suazo's taken 7 pens for Chile and Mati 0. :D That's the thing...you're not gonna be getting an edge over the market by knowing who is on pens unless it's obscure info (like a new penalty taker because the last one has missed or something like that) or a joke book. Your edge in goalscorers is gonna come from being able to more accurately access a player's goalscoring than the market - which is mostly intangible.

edit: Tell you what is obscure though - the Costa Rica team. Seems getting together a probable XI is going to be a lot of guesswork!

GodstoneEagle
21-06-2011, 06:02 PM
Impossible. Nobody knows any of their players! If it was their full team they'd be ok but this could be anything. Wish I had a Costa Rican grandparent.

BW_Palace
24-06-2011, 06:24 PM
Right...so I've priced up all the CA teams bar Bolivia and Mexico so far - although they're not really significant for Top Scorer purposes anyway.

I think that the whole market is off because it's hugely underestimating Messi. Although his national record is not that great, he's the only real surefire starter in that side who are big favs for the tournament. He'll be on penalties (with Copa America having a historically high amount of penalties) + in his 'new' false #9 role which makes him in for scoring more than he has in the past where he's played on the right or in the hole.

I'm reneging on saying Pato is value now, price is probably about right. Wouldn't be touching Lavezzi...big doubts over his staying power in the lineup. In general I expect I'll be getting with Messi and against the rest of the field when liquidity on exchanges/bookmakers emerges.

Louis
24-06-2011, 06:34 PM
I think that the whole market is off because it's hugely underestimating Messi. Although his national record is not that great, he's the only real surefire starter in that side who are big favs for the tournament. He'll be on penalties (with Copa America having a historically high amount of penalties) + in his 'new' false #9 role which makes him in for scoring more than he has in the past where he's played on the right or in the hole.
I do remember Messi was pretty disappointing in the World Cup last year, but apparently he's been more effective recently, and if he's on penalties ... for top scorer, I guess you are looking for an under-valued goalscorer in a team that is pretty certain to get to the semi-finals at least, and hopefully run up some big scores on the way.

Lenny Again
26-06-2011, 12:20 AM
Just got gifted tickets to the opening game :lux:

GodstoneEagle
26-06-2011, 01:21 PM
I'm recording the sportingbet podcast on Wednesday as their south American voice. Will be interested to see their thoughts on the Markets.

BW_Palace
28-06-2011, 11:21 PM
Right...so I've priced up all the CA teams bar Bolivia and Mexico so far - although they're not really significant for Top Scorer purposes anyway.

I think that the whole market is off because it's hugely underestimating Messi. Although his national record is not that great, he's the only real surefire starter in that side who are big favs for the tournament. He'll be on penalties (with Copa America having a historically high amount of penalties) + in his 'new' false #9 role which makes him in for scoring more than he has in the past where he's played on the right or in the hole.

I'm reneging on saying Pato is value now, price is probably about right. Wouldn't be touching Lavezzi...big doubts over his staying power in the lineup. In general I expect I'll be getting with Messi and against the rest of the field when liquidity on exchanges/bookmakers emerges.

Am on Messi @ 4.5 (win only) and Robinho @ 21 (win only) so far (although wouldn't back Robinho now, done some tweaking and is no longer sufficient value).

In the process of getting on some on other players, will post up when I'm on.

Louis
28-06-2011, 11:32 PM
(although wouldn't back Robinho now, done some tweaking and is no longer sufficient value)
What does that mean BW? Can you explain please? :confused:

BW_Palace
28-06-2011, 11:47 PM
I backed him, then tweaked my model, then he was no longer good enough to be a bet - i.e. if I could have not have backed him, I wouldn't have [I could lay off for a tiny profit and stuff but that's an -EV bet by itself so I'm just letting it run at tiny +EV]

Louis
28-06-2011, 11:55 PM
I backed him, then tweaked my model, then he was no longer good enough to be a bet - i.e. if I could have not have backed him, I wouldn't have [I could lay off for a tiny profit and stuff but that's an -EV bet by itself so I'm just letting it run at tiny +EV]
So basically, you don't think Robinho's good value at 20/1 ... doesn't he have a decent record for Brazil?

BW_Palace
28-06-2011, 11:59 PM
Yes, yes, but players in the TGS market are less likely to win the thing that you'd think.

I mean, Robinho to win the golden boot will have to outscore: Messi, Lavezzi, Tevez, Higuain, Di Maria, Pato, Neymar, Barrios, Suazo, Sanchez, Cavani, Forlan, Suarez, Falcao, etc etc

Louis
29-06-2011, 12:11 AM
Yes, yes, but players in the TGS market are less likely to win the thing that you'd think.

I mean, Robinho to win the golden boot will have to outscore: Messi, Lavezzi, Tevez, Higuain, Di Maria, Pato, Neymar, Barrios, Suazo, Sanchez, Cavani, Forlan, Suarez, Falcao, etc etc
OK - cheers (not a bad forward line that one ;))

GodstoneEagle
29-06-2011, 12:16 AM
Batista's favoured front three has consistently been Di Maria, Messi, Lavezzi but in training they've been practicing with Tevez, Messi, Lavezzi. Just some info.

Doing the podcast tomorrow/today but it's mainly promotional so I don't think I can talk about EV and models :D

BW_Palace
29-06-2011, 12:55 AM
Yep, noticed that on twitter. Have adjusted for that, laid a chunk of Tevez but not significantly so, got away pretty cheaply I think. Doesn't affect my Messi position too much really.

And yea, wouldn't exactly expect someone on a promotion betting website podcast to talk about how you might beat said bookmaker.

Finbar
29-06-2011, 05:56 AM
Have backed Messi at 4.5 :p

BW_Palace
29-06-2011, 04:30 PM
Would now advise taking Robinho @ 21, but ONLY with each way (the win part is about level EV but the ew part is good).

Also taken Pato ew @ 21, again, mainly for the ew although if you really want to do win only for some reason you can do that too.

Bigtoe82
29-06-2011, 04:52 PM
Bw, interested in your techniques. Have you made your model from scratch or do you use a template?

GodstoneEagle
29-06-2011, 05:55 PM
I am too. It's a very interesting method. Would love to see how he prices up other markets, the premiership TGS for example.

Brtfair have just opened a top 4 goalscorer market

BW_Palace
29-06-2011, 07:47 PM
Bw, interested in your techniques. Have you made your model from scratch or do you use a template?

Scratch. Still being tweaked as I find more things that I may not have taken into account.

No template is available on the Internet and obviously the models used by bookmakers are proprietary. I tried getting hold of one from a company (because someone I know knows someone who works there), they're very protective of that stuff for obv. reasons - so much so that they set it up to not work if not run on their office computers. Not going to share my explicit method I'm afraid...it's not nearly as complicated as you may think though - it basically just involves breaking down all the variables involved in the market and calculating them.

I expect their models are more solid than mine at the moment but I'd trust my ability to price up players better than them as I'm specialised in that whilst they aren't. When you see books like Will Hill offering odds on players who were not even picked for squads you can see that they've not spent that much time researching the market though, which is where I'm gonna hopefully derive my edge [although on a whole-market basis they'll be fine because their over round is so large on these markets].

I am too. It's a very interesting method. Would love to see how he prices up other markets, the premiership TGS for example.

Brtfair have just opened a top 4 goalscorer market

Yup, on top of it. A lot of the money on the GS markets atm is mine.

Louis
29-06-2011, 07:53 PM
When you see books like Will Hill offering odds on players who were not even picked for squads you can see that they've not spent that much time researching the market
Danny Butterfield @ 50/1 for Palace v Wolves first scorer was another example of this I suppose.

BW_Palace
29-06-2011, 07:56 PM
Yea you do see instances like that sometimes in regular goalscorer markets although it's very very rare, especially for a game as high profile as that one was (on live TV). Definitely regret not getting money on that one in time - expected price to remain there as EVERY bookie had that one wrong but woke up the next morning with all the prices cut as presumably the money poured in.

[although that said, it wasn't like Butterfield should have been priced at 6/1 or something, he still should have been pretty long at say 23/1 - still brilliant value but not as amazing as you'd think with hindsight]

GodstoneEagle
29-06-2011, 10:38 PM
Mine's spread across all sorts of bookies just because of best prices. 40/1 on Skybet for Lavezzi was way too good. Couple of others on other bookies and on betfair.

BW_Palace
29-06-2011, 11:18 PM
Do you mean you've backed a load of players just because they were best price at a certain bookie?

Who have you backed on BF out of interest?

GodstoneEagle
30-06-2011, 09:56 AM
No, I mean I've had to use different bookies because that's where the best prices were for people I wanted to back. eg Lavezzi 40/1 on skybet but got Robinho 18/1 elsewhere

GodstoneEagle
30-06-2011, 09:59 AM
Only Messi on betfair

Flat Noodle
02-07-2011, 06:42 PM
Hmmm.. surprise to see this thread gone quiet in last couple of days especially when the tournament has started.

Glad I missed out betting on Argentina! Can't believe they drew 1-1 against Bolivia! However, this gives the opportunity for Colombia to snatch the top spot in Group A if they can manage at least a draw against Argentina. Thus, tonight's opening match vs a youthful Costa Rica side is a must win for them.

Colombia to win first half @ 1.95
Colombia -1.5 @ 2.05

Flat Noodle
02-07-2011, 07:29 PM
Was about to post how useless these Colombians are against 10-men Costa Rica side since 27th min! Then Ramos SCORED in the last minute of first half :lux:

Surely flood gate to open in second half :p

ozeagle
02-07-2011, 11:10 PM
Need to have a good look at the amount of betting you're doing young man.

Flat Noodle
03-07-2011, 12:43 AM
Cant agree more

Bigtoe82
03-07-2011, 09:13 PM
Wow, what a tedious match! Brazil were awful, boring, ineffective. Suppose Venezuela did what they had to.

Ty brazil last leg of 5.23 four fold, good work! C@&£'s

Bigtoe82
04-07-2011, 11:05 PM
And of course after the plethora of goals so far + the history between Uruguay & Peru I take the unders 2.5 (Doubled with the over 2.5 in HJK helsinki match earlier)

1-1 on stroke of half time, no way is my bet going to be a winner! Run continues.

BW_Palace
12-07-2011, 09:50 PM
Those TGS of mine have been a massive bust so far...oh well.

A late bet for tonight's Chile game...taken Paredes fgs @ 9 or better.

GodstoneEagle
12-07-2011, 11:15 PM
I'm holding on with Messi, end of the day I think he will score (**** knows how he didn't last night) and if he gets 1 or 2 then price crumbles.

Aguero well set though.

Louis
17-07-2011, 12:38 AM
Just watched my first games in the this tournament - some of Peru v Colombia and Argentina v Uruguay. I just couldn't get excited about either game, and no team or player really stood out for me.

PeterH
17-07-2011, 12:44 AM
Are you mad? Argentina/Uruguay was a cracker. And now it is penalties.

Louis
17-07-2011, 12:55 AM
No cracker for me I'm afraid - just not enough flowing football

GodstoneEagle
17-07-2011, 02:57 PM
edit - popped in betfair trading

Finbar
21-07-2011, 08:48 AM
Paraguay in the final without winning a game in the whole comp, ridiculous!!!

Louis
21-07-2011, 10:22 AM
Paraguay in the final without winning a game in the whole comp, ridiculous!!!
Winner has to be Uruguay doesn't it?

GodstoneEagle
21-07-2011, 03:47 PM
Well I hope so, to be honest. Greened out either way but from a football perspective it has to be.

Flat Noodle
25-07-2011, 02:38 AM
Comfortable win for Uruguay in the end.

Louis
25-07-2011, 10:01 AM
For the record, here is the final goalscorer table -

5 goals
Guerrero (Peru)

4 goals
Suarez (Uruguay)

3 goals
Aguero (Argentina)

2 goals
Neymar (Brasil)
Pato (Brasil)

Falcao (Colombia)
Caicedo (Colombia)

Forlan (Uruguay)
Pereira (Uruguay)

29 players scored one goal each

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Copa_Am%C3%A9rica#Goalscorers

Any comments from anyone who had an interest in this?

GodstoneEagle
25-07-2011, 01:16 PM
As predicted - it was a goalscorer who was a regular starter, got to at least the semis etc.

I think nobody could have predicted Peru though.

I didn't lay Argentina in the end, as discussed on page 2, instead I backed Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay and ended up profiting on the outright even if my TGS bets were a complete bust.

BW_Palace
25-07-2011, 01:42 PM
My TGS bets ended up as a bust also pretty much, escaped with only a small lost though thanks to some backing of Guerrero on Betfair (got matched a little @ 380ish pre-tournament).

Louis
25-07-2011, 08:52 PM
Well here's a question relating to the Copa America Top Scorers. I had a bet on Top Scorer - Top 4 with Betfair on Alvaro Pereira of Uruguay. He finished joint 4th with 2 goals, tied with 5 others (Neymar, Pato, Falcao, Caicedo and Forlan). I thought tied results like this ('dead heats') were normally settled as win/void - so I expected that they would have settled as win on 1/6 and void on the other 5/6, so I was expecting a small profit, but they've settled it as an overall loss.

Here's the scorers list on Wikipedia, which I believe is accurate -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Copa_Am%C3%A9rica#Goalscorers

Before I contact Betfair to query it, do you think they've settled it correctly or not?

GodstoneEagle
25-07-2011, 08:57 PM
Interesting. I had a thing with betfair at the WC2010 which was Villa/Spain TGS/Outright bet.

£5 at 22.0 IIRC. After the final I thought I'd lost it but I definitely did well out of it, can't remember exact details but it definitely wasn't settled as a loser.

BW_Palace
25-07-2011, 10:29 PM
Well here's a question relating to the Copa America Top Scorers. I had a bet on Top Scorer - Top 4 with Betfair on Alvaro Pereira of Uruguay. He finished joint 4th with 2 goals, tied with 5 others (Neymar, Pato, Falcao, Caicedo and Forlan). I thought tied results like this ('dead heats') were normally settled as win/void - so I expected that they would have settled as win on 1/6 and void on the other 5/6, so I was expecting a small profit, but they've settled it as an overall loss.

Here's the scorers list on Wikipedia, which I believe is accurate -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Copa_Am%C3%A9rica#Goalscorers

Before I contact Betfair to query it, do you think they've settled it correctly or not?

It's 1/6 win, 5/6 loss, they've done it correctly.