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Beckenham Boy
08-09-2011, 04:39 PM
Going to look into this tonight and tomorrow

England are 16s and e/w is 3 places so assume will have to win the 3/4 play off to pay out

Top try scorer starts at 9/1 so will have a dabble here too

Will look at individual games and group betting as well

Anyone got any thoughts?

Louis
08-09-2011, 04:43 PM
There are what are appear to be some well-informed posts on 'Punters Lounge' -

http://forum.punterslounge.com/f16/rugby-world-cup-2011-a-120198/

I had a quick look at some of the odds, and I thought England were reasonable value to win their Pool, at around 1.4 on Betfair

cantspell
08-09-2011, 06:51 PM
Louis - Good thread

I can't help thinking the All Blacks are too short for the title and better value is with Australia, SA and even England. I have seen that England are 22/1 with PP. so with a group that we should win and the liklihood of the unpredictable French those odds are likely to drop with so laying opportunities on the exchanges.

I feel that Australia at 5.5 and SA at 10.5 will shorten as the tournament progresses.

All_Fired_Up
08-09-2011, 11:01 PM
Hi Guys, I am a massive Rugby fan and my very first bet is on game 1,

Allblacks vs Tonga

First Scoring Play

Allblacks Penalty goal

Paying $3.25

Australian TAB

Louis
08-09-2011, 11:55 PM
Tell us more about that one All Fired Up

Finbar
09-09-2011, 12:41 AM
Hi Guys, I am a massive Rugby fan and my very first bet is on game 1,

Allblacks vs Tonga

First Scoring Play

Allblacks Penalty goal

Paying $3.25

Australian TAB

I wouldn't be surprised to see them not kick for goal even if they got a penalty.

Looking forward to this, hopefully I can turn a profit :)

Have a nice looking outright book to start with

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-jPy9lyXtsks/TmlgcBXAXjI/AAAAAAAAAHU/x1STOKcdssc/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-09%252520at%25252010.38.59.png

Flat Noodle
09-09-2011, 12:42 AM
The King of Trading! :eek:

Finbar
09-09-2011, 01:17 AM
Really not anything difficult, just a case of finding the right markets at the right time with big back bets making sure the price doesn't drift while I back and lay inside it, well it seems straightforward in the markets I've done it in so far, not done any trades in this market this week as there is now too much liquidity.

Shame that NZ only have 10p next to their name :D

cantspell
09-09-2011, 07:47 AM
Really not anything difficult, just a case of finding the right markets at the right time with big back bets making sure the price doesn't drift while I back and lay inside it, well it seems straightforward in the markets I've done it in so far, not done any trades in this market this week as there is now too much liquidity.

Shame that NZ only have 10p next to their name :D
You will be able to lay some of that profit as some of those teams progress in the tournament

Finbar
09-09-2011, 07:57 AM
Possibly, don't think the prices will change a lot but as long as Aus and Eng win their groups I'll have a finalist. Hopefully build some more greens up as the tournament goes on. Having just moved to Aus it's nice to have the tv times in my favour for a change!

Beckenham Boy
09-09-2011, 08:02 AM
Almost Goldmine material some of these bets

Group Betting
New Zealand (1/8)
England (2/5)
Australia (1/4)
South Africa (3/10)

All to win their groups as expected pays 2.59 (if I have my maths right?)

Easy money surely?

Finbar
09-09-2011, 08:07 AM
Does look pretty safe but then at the football World Cup I always think the same with the likes of Brazil and it never works out like that

Flat Noodle
09-09-2011, 08:36 AM
Did predict NZL to beat Tonga by 70 pts in tipping comp.

But I've changed my mind since and think it'll probably be half that.

Have gone for Tonga +57.5 and Game total UNDER 74.5

Good luck to everyone who's betting on this tournament :p

Beckenham Boy
09-09-2011, 08:37 AM
Hi Guys, I am a massive Rugby fan and my very first bet is on game 1,

Allblacks vs Tonga

First Scoring Play

Allblacks Penalty goal

Paying $3.25

Australian TAB

Here we go......wins!

Finbar
09-09-2011, 08:37 AM
Good shout!

Hi Guys, I am a massive Rugby fan and my very first bet is on game 1,

Allblacks vs Tonga

First Scoring Play

Allblacks Penalty goal

Paying $3.25

Australian TAB

Beckenham Boy
09-09-2011, 08:38 AM
What time are the games out there Fin?

Flat Noodle
09-09-2011, 08:38 AM
Nice one, AFU !! :p

Flat Noodle
09-09-2011, 08:39 AM
6.30pm here in Sydney at the moment.

Finbar
09-09-2011, 08:43 AM
Am now involved, like Sam have gone for Tonga +57.5, got it at 2.02, will lay off 2nd half if poss as I suspect NZ will go big 2nd half

Flat Noodle
09-09-2011, 08:56 AM
Did predict NZL to beat Tonga by 70 pts in tipping comp.

But I've changed my mind since and think it'll probably be half that.
OK, so 70 pts is actually pretty realistic afterall... :D

Finbar
09-09-2011, 09:16 AM
Hmm think I'll take that at half time

Shouldn't you be in the pub Noodle?

Beckenham Boy
09-09-2011, 09:50 AM
A lot tighter 2nd half - such a big winning margin looking less likely now I'd say

Finbar
09-09-2011, 09:52 AM
What time are the games out there Fin?

Pretty much all the games (well the ones that matter) kick off at 1pm, 4pm or 6.30pm, happy with that!

Watching it on ITV and have to say the commentary is excellent

Bet looking good too, should be off to a winning start, to lay of or not...

Finbar
09-09-2011, 10:09 AM
NZ -47.5 matched at 1.06, blimey!

One bet one win so far in the WC :)

Flat Noodle
09-09-2011, 10:26 AM
2 from 2 for me :p

In the pub with my iPhone, checking live scores across all footy codes :lux:

si1965
09-09-2011, 04:25 PM
Missed the bus on the opening game :(

Did a yankee on the following (Bet365):

Sale v London Irish
London Irish -2 @ 1.91

Glasgow v Munster
Munster -5 @ 1.91

Ireland v USA
USA +34.0 @ 2

France v Japan
Japan +43.0 @ 2

Total = 14.59

Louis
09-09-2011, 05:02 PM
Ireland v USA
USA +34.0 @ 2

France v Japan
Japan +43.0 @ 2
So your reckoning is that the favourites are over-priced, and the margin of victory will be smaller than expected.

Finbar
10-09-2011, 12:08 AM
Right, WC overload for me today as other half has gone wedding dress shopping and needless to say I'm not invited :lux:

Forecast for some rain in the Scotland match, Romania (from what I've read) are a side that might well suck up a lot of the clock in forward drives

Romania win @ 100.0 (actually laid Scotland at 1.01 which gives me the draw as well)
Romania +21.5 @ 4.1
Romania +33.5 @ 2.0

GodstoneEagle
10-09-2011, 12:12 AM
For good rugby tips, follow @louchepunter on twitter. Excellent.

GodstoneEagle
10-09-2011, 12:15 AM
So your reckoning is that the favourites are over-priced, and the margin of victory will be smaller than expected.
yep, much like NZ yesterday.

Finbar
10-09-2011, 12:16 AM
Cheers Godders, now following him.

His take on the Japan game, good enough for me!

Preview: Since Japan last played France in the 2003 tournament, they have improved markedly thanks largely to a huge influx of foreign players. John Kirwan, who has named his strongest side, has drilled real belief into his squad since taking over in 2007 and under his guidance the Brave Blossoms have won 31 matches, lost 19 and drawn one, scoring an astonishing 300 tries.

They are ranked by the International Rugby Board only just behind Italy, who beat France in the Six Nations in Rome. At a neutral ground, there is no way you would price Italy up with a 47.5-point start, but that is the reality on Betfair and on the high street.

Japan are unlikely to turn over Les Blues, who were impressive in the warm-up games over Ireland, but they can make life hard for Marc Lievremont's side, much like they did against Italy during the summer.

Before I saw the handicaps available I considered Japan 31-point underdogs. Betfair offer a 33-point start, which at the current match betting prices equates to around odds of 2.8 for Japan on Betfair's alternative handicap.

There is little liquidity at the time of writing but it is certainly worth putting up a price and seeing if you can get matched at that sort of level. This is a real opportunity.

GodstoneEagle
10-09-2011, 12:25 AM
Worked with him a lot at the Times. Incredible knowledge, good on horses too. Ed Hawkins was there too who is the god of cricket betting.

Finbar
10-09-2011, 12:31 AM
Yep follow EH as well, stupid to ignore the opinion of people who clearly have a much deeper knowledge of a sport, though clearly doesn't mean guaranteed winners, just more informed selections

GodstoneEagle
10-09-2011, 12:40 AM
Of course, and my rugby knowledge is average, whilst his is incredible. Interesting sport for punting, never thought about it before, handicapping essential I suppose.

Finbar
10-09-2011, 01:10 AM
Hmm, Romania look poor...

Finbar
10-09-2011, 01:31 AM
If they can hold off till half time without conceding a converted try then definitely hope as they wind is massively against them this half

GodstoneEagle
10-09-2011, 01:46 AM
+20-odd under threat but +30 should be safe

Finbar
10-09-2011, 02:06 AM
Laid off my outright and +21.5, will let the 33.5 one ride for now

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-9FrNzWk4VGI/TmrFtVDD46I/AAAAAAAAAHc/5nXRW2pBiVk/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-10%252520at%25252011.59.41.png

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-FHh_qSiqTxY/TmrGDW-IkXI/AAAAAAAAAHk/9nAE3BRch9o/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-10%252520at%25252012.03.00.png

Flat Noodle
10-09-2011, 02:39 AM
Holy cow!!! Go Romania!!! Do it for Finbar!!!

Finbar
10-09-2011, 02:56 AM
Balls, wasn't to be, would have laid off a couple of hundred had Scotland hit 2.0, biggest they hit was 1.8, still a good profit for the morning. I should be happy though as I was born in Scotland

Next up Fiji v Namibia, who knows? Well having done a minescule amount of research I think it's quite feasible Fiji might run Namibia ragged so am going for

Fiji -30.5 @ 2.1
Fiji -44.5 @ 4.2

Finbar
10-09-2011, 03:02 AM
England 1.16 on Betfair? Has to be a lay surely

Flat Noodle
10-09-2011, 03:40 AM
With you on Fiji -30.5 and Japan +40.5 :p

Finbar
10-09-2011, 03:47 AM
Next up Fiji v Namibia, who knows? Well having done a minescule amount of research I think it's quite feasible Fiji might run Namibia ragged so am going for

Fiji -30.5 @ 2.1
Fiji -44.5 @ 4.2

I think it's safe to say I can kiss goodbye to these, Keotzer's kicking winning it single handedly!!

Flat Noodle
10-09-2011, 03:48 AM
Namibia are putting the boots into the Fijians at the momemt :clown:

Finbar
10-09-2011, 03:52 AM
Maybe not! Couple more unanswered trys from Fiji will hopefully put an end to the drop goal attempts

I think it's safe to say I can kiss goodbye to these, Keotzer's kicking winning it single handedly!!

Finbar
10-09-2011, 03:53 AM
Now wish I had gone for over 7.5 trys at 2.8

Flat Noodle
10-09-2011, 03:57 AM
Two quick tries for the Fijians and I think we're back in it now. :)

Flat Noodle
10-09-2011, 04:20 AM
A very handy try at the end of first half there for us, Simon.

Finbar
10-09-2011, 04:30 AM
Huge, and their kicker is having a good day too which helps

Could lay off at 1.69 which is tempting, am guessing 2nd half Namibia will be more tired and less likely to kick for goal so worth leaving it I think

Louis
10-09-2011, 10:04 AM
For good rugby tips, follow @louchepunter on twitter. Excellent.
Looks good - cheers GE :p

http://twitter.com/#!/louchepunter

GodstoneEagle
10-09-2011, 11:16 AM
Romania +30 nom nom

Flat Noodle
10-09-2011, 05:43 PM
It's been a dogs' tournament so far with 4 underdogs all covering the spread.

Italy should also cover 29.5 start but I really think that Ireland will smash USA by the tune of 50+ therefore I'm going heavy on Ireland -32.5 @ evens (bet365)

:)

Beckenham Boy
11-09-2011, 07:06 AM
Ire v USA quite tight at mo I think due to the weather, quite fancy SA v Wales to be tight too so will have a look and handicap

Something I saw on Betfred, if Brian Habana scores the LAST try then Betfred will refund all losing first and last try scorer bets and all losing first scoring play bets. Seems a good deal. See attached for best first try scorer bets http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/rugby-world-cup/south-africa-v-wales/first-tryscorer
Pieterson and Williams looks good

si1965
11-09-2011, 07:52 AM
Missed the bus on the opening game :(

Did a yankee on the following (Bet365):

Sale v London Irish
London Irish -2 @ 1.91

Glasgow v Munster
Munster -5 @ 1.91

Ireland v USA
USA +34.0 @ 2

France v Japan
Japan +43.0 @ 2

Total = 14.59

Just a battling performance from Sale ruined my clean sweep :sob:

Still, the other results mean a 2:1 return on my money :p

Flat Noodle
11-09-2011, 07:55 AM
It's been a dogs' tournament so far with 4 underdogs all covering the spread.

Italy should also cover 29.5 start but I really think that Ireland will smash USA by the tune of 50+ therefore I'm going heavy on Ireland -32.5 @ evens (bet365)

:)
No good. Underdogs continue to cover :(

Beckenham Boy
11-09-2011, 09:53 AM
Ire v USA quite tight at mo I think due to the weather, quite fancy SA v Wales to be tight too so will have a look and handicap

Something I saw on Betfred, if Brian Habana scores the LAST try then Betfred will refund all losing first and last try scorer bets and all losing first scoring play bets. Seems a good deal. See attached for best first try scorer bets http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/rugby-world-cup/south-africa-v-wales/first-tryscorer
Pieterson and Williams looks good
Bugger, Habana subbed with 20 to go

Louis
11-09-2011, 10:25 AM
Just a battling performance from Sale ruined my clean sweep :sob:

Still, the other results mean a 2:1 return on my money :p
:p

si1965
12-09-2011, 11:31 AM
Couple of early prices for Wednesday:

Tonga v Canada
Tonga -4 @ 1.91 (StanJames)
Standout price as all other bookies have handicaps -6 or above. While I rate the Canada side and they have the previous form on their side , I think that they will struggle against a strong Tongan side who have a good deal of local support.

Scotland v Georgia
Georgia +21 @ 1.91 (Ladbrokes)
Following the underdog trend I think Georgia will push the Scots close. I anticipate a similar game to Scotland v Romania, with Scotland having an eye on the next game against Argentina.

USA v Russia
Was expecting a bigger handicap here - best I could find was Russia +8 (PaddyPower) so am in two minds about this one. This is Russia's first WC appearance, but I was very impressed with their 7s performance this year. Not sure if they have the full technical ability to succeed in the full form of the game this time around but they will be targeting this game as their best chance for a result.

Finbar
12-09-2011, 10:58 PM
Yep the first two look pretty solid, might well join you on those :p

Finbar
13-09-2011, 07:04 AM
First scoring play Namibia vs Samoa you can get 25/1 for a Namb drop goal with B365, surely a great bet (missed the 33/1 with Skybet)

That's how they got all their early points in their last game, only dropped that tactic once they were well behind

Beckenham Boy
14-09-2011, 07:07 AM
Couple of early prices for Wednesday:

Tonga v Canada
Tonga -4 @ 1.91 (StanJames)
Standout price as all other bookies have handicaps -6 or above. While I rate the Canada side and they have the previous form on their side , I think that they will struggle against a strong Tongan side who have a good deal of local support.

t.

Canada won by 5... Final score Tonga 20 Canada 25.

Looking forward to the Scots game in 25 mins, will it be Jekyll or Hyde that turns up for Scotland??

Finbar
14-09-2011, 07:12 AM
Won 15 on the Namibia game, was playing the +43.5 handicap in running, at the end I was +1 for over and +15 for under, thankully Namibia scored a try in the last few mins to reduce their 44pt deficit, would have been annoying being one point over. Not a huge win but fun all the same

Laid Tonga at 1.41 pre match, then laid Canada at 1.46 after their final try.

I can see why the handicap for the last game of the day is set so low but odds against for over 43pts when there is a major nation (ish) and a relative minnow involved is good enough for me, might go heavily odds on in running even if it does lose. Am on Georgia to win (laid Scotland at 1.12) as well, also will look to get at least a free bet in running if possible

si1965
14-09-2011, 09:21 AM
One out of two.

Did not see the game but Canada were seemingly very strong in defence and the Tongan handling in the backs let them down.

The Scotland game went pretty much as expected - can see Georgia causing all of the remaining sides problems.

Finbar
14-09-2011, 09:41 AM
Well that dented my profits! Oh well still up overall

Finbar
15-09-2011, 07:34 AM
Laid USA at 1.35 today

Beckenham Boy
15-09-2011, 07:49 AM
I think Captain America will steer them home today

Finbar
16-09-2011, 02:50 AM
Japan have made 10 changes to the side that lost to Tonga, clearly tartgetting more winnable games. NZ have made 7 changes, am going to back NZ on the handicaps as can see people scrambling to back them at any price if they get a couple of early breakthroughs

Gone for
NZ -80.5 @ 7.4
NZ -71.5 @ 4.5
NZ -57.5 @ 2.2

Finbar
16-09-2011, 10:55 AM
Nice, more than recouped yesterday's losses :)

Laid off the two longer shots when they hit even money

etu
16-09-2011, 11:12 AM
One out of two.

Did not see the game but Canada were seemingly very strong in defence and the Tongan handling in the backs let them down.

The Scotland game went pretty much as expected - can see Georgia causing all of the remaining sides problems.

Really? I thought Georgia were very poor, and only saved from a beating by the Scots having hands like penises.

I don't suppose anybody has some odds for Samoa/Fiji beating Wales? Might be speaking more in hope admittedly...

Finbar
16-09-2011, 11:27 AM
Samoa is priced up but not Fiji

3.75 on Samoa is quite tempting

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/rugby-world-cup/wales-v-samoa/winner

Beckenham Boy
16-09-2011, 11:38 AM
Nice hits Fin!

I can see Wales doing Samoa and Fiji

si1965
16-09-2011, 12:32 PM
Samoa is priced up but not Fiji

3.75 on Samoa is quite tempting

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/rugby-world-cup/wales-v-samoa/winner

Fiji +22 (Various)
S. Africa -20 (BlueSq)

Finbar
17-09-2011, 01:01 AM
Right todays bets

Just don't see SA doing a job on Fiji, great running side and SA have injuries and questionable form

Fiji to beat Argentina - laid Argentina at 1.08
Fiji +21.5pts @ 1.97
Fiji over 1.5 tries @ 2.0 (though you can get 2.1 at Paddy Power)

Agree with Riddle that Argentina a class above Romania as highlighted here
http://*********************//rugby-bet/rugby-union/world-cup/match-previews/rugby-world-cup-betting-argentina-v-romania-160911.html

Argentina -20.5 @ 2.1
Argentina -32.5 @ 5.0

I can honestly see Aus battering Ireland, again I like the summary from Riddle and the idea of laying to back when Ireland tire, but as I'll be in the pub and betting in running is a pain over here I'll just hope that Aus can dominate from the off
http://*********************/rugby-bet/rugby-union/world-cup/match-previews/rugby-world-cup-betting-australia-v-ireland-160911.html

Australia -11.5 @ 1.94
Australia -23.5 @ 4.7

Just for the record I don't always agree with him, last night he picked Japan as the handicap winner over NZ, he did get 11 of his first 12 picks correct though (making him now 11 out of 13) so always worth reading

Finbar
17-09-2011, 01:04 AM
WTF you can't like to betting blogs now????

Flat Noodle
17-09-2011, 01:28 AM
Has been a disastrous RWC for me so far. Hoping for better this round.

Gotta agree with Fin on the Argies and have tailed you on the handicap. :p

Flat Noodle
17-09-2011, 04:51 AM
Argentina has taken their foot off the gas it seems.

:(

Finbar
17-09-2011, 05:30 AM
Just arrived at pub, nice profit though I did lay some off. Were you on?

Flat Noodle
17-09-2011, 06:18 AM
Yup, but lost all my winnings back on stupid horses :grrr:

Beckenham Boy
17-09-2011, 07:26 AM
Right todays bets

Just don't see SA doing a job on Fiji, great running side and SA have injuries and questionable form

Fiji to beat Argentina - laid Argentina at 1.08
Fiji +21.5pts @ 1.97
Fiji over 1.5 tries @ 2.0 (though you can get 2.1 at Paddy Power
reading
Do you mean SA and not Arg above v Fiji?

Flat Noodle
17-09-2011, 07:31 AM
Yes, I noticed that too but it was obviously SA and not ARG.

The ref is killing the Fijians though... Gotta fancy Australia covering the line later on today as well.

Flat Noodle
22-09-2011, 06:27 AM
Springboks vs Namibia today, kicking off in less than 2 hours.

H2H is 1-0 when they met in 2007, SA won 103-13. With Habana back in the side, I just can't see how Namibia will put up any resistance to the Springboks' attacks. Gonna go with SA -60.5

Flat Noodle
22-09-2011, 06:46 AM
also having a dabble on:

SA -28.5 (HT) @ 1.90
SA -79.5 @ 4.15
SA -85.5 @ 6.50

Finbar
22-09-2011, 06:55 AM
Spent the last couple of hours backing and laying on BF, it's gone well :)

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-n-a5oMPwcgg/TnrZ6gfF9KI/AAAAAAAAAI4/QVfeoZVpbT8/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-22%252520at%25252016.28.45.png

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-GmaqcTHRmOk/TnrbsQBa3gI/AAAAAAAAAJA/kQyKYNKhfMs/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-22%252520at%25252016.54.11.png

Bigtoe82
22-09-2011, 08:19 AM
Nice work. Wanted to take the handicap when it was set at -55 earlier at the week and missed the boat so didn't fancy the -60.5 which was available mainly after that so have played it slightly safer with the SA points over 62.5 @ 1.6.

Reasoning was basically just based on the previous results in the tourney and SA's last game with Namibia. Could do with some more points atm please.

Flat Noodle
22-09-2011, 08:24 AM
The ref is trying to keep this a close game. Boks are slicing them apart at will :grrr:

Bigtoe82
22-09-2011, 08:26 AM
Also Finbar have you looked at greening the outrights? England were a perfect back to lay at the start around 18.0 and already into 13's and should continue into 8.0 maybe at the quarters and if get through (Likely) then probs around 5.0/6.0 in the semi's.

Yeh tis' annoying, would prefer SA just to run the ball as well instead of trying to chip and run!

Bigtoe82
22-09-2011, 08:32 AM
We'll take that. First good thing this ref has done!

Bigtoe82
22-09-2011, 09:17 AM
Not looking good for my bet atm, 24 SA points still needed but their inability to finish their dinner at the moment is tilting me!

Bigtoe82
22-09-2011, 09:27 AM
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM YEAHHHHHH! Noodle if it continues at this rate, your other bets are on! Wish I took the handicap now. Oh well, you can't grumble at profit!

Beckenham Boy
22-09-2011, 09:34 AM
5 trys in 10 mins for the saffers

73-0 now

Finbar
22-09-2011, 09:36 AM
The guys at Betfair clearly don't believe Namibia are capable of scoring a point, as soon as a handicap is covered they close and settle the market :clown:

Edit: Well they settled the 43.5 and 59.5pt markets but seem to have realised it is theoretically possible for Namibia to score now and left the 64.5 market open

A good afternoon's work :)

Flat Noodle
22-09-2011, 09:48 AM
:lux:

Men At Work
22-09-2011, 12:05 PM
WTF you can't like to betting blogs now????

Fixed. You can now link to the Betfair site. Let me know if any others have problems.

I wonder how many burger flips this decision will cost Noodle.

Finbar
23-09-2011, 12:59 AM
Cheers MaW :p

Onto today, Aus have changed 14 of their 15 players, USA only conceded 3 tries to Ireland (scoring one of their own), Aus confidence must be shot, surely it will pay to side with the US on the handicaps, especially half time (yesterday and the France game showed that late on the big sides can go nuts).

Halftime handicap, USA +28.5 at 2.2 with Sporting bet, means Aus would probably have to score 4 tries or more (depending on their lacklustre kicking)

Will also back USA +59.5 at 2.12 with Betfair
Will also have a dabble on USA +46.5 at 4.5
..and a few sheckles on the US win at 370 :D

Off out this afternoon so unlikely I'll be able to trade like I did yesterday. If the market starts to move towards USA it might pick up momentum though so might put in a few bets to lay off just before kick off and accept a loss if it moves towards Aus

Finbar
23-09-2011, 04:31 AM
Well money is coming for Aus, see that USA have made 14 changes from the Russia game, managed to get a decent green on USA so think I'll just leave it at at that (and my USA win bet :D)

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-i-pIcx8yZ3E/TnwLOpK6YJI/AAAAAAAAAJI/tBIFwzFqUXk/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-23%252520at%25252014.28.59.png

Flat Noodle
24-09-2011, 07:42 AM
Exect the Frenchies to put up a fight tonight, so have gone for NZ to win by 1-24 @ 1.80

Bigtoe82
24-09-2011, 08:05 AM
3 Successful handicaps in a row thanks to the Aussie's, Saffers and Ingerland :) Think I'm going to leave this match alone now, really confused as to what is going to happen and what French team turn up.

RWC2011 = Profits !

Flat Noodle
24-09-2011, 08:14 AM
Exect the Frenchies to put up a fight tonight, so have gone for NZ to win by 1-24 @ 1.80
Also going for Game Total UNDER 48.5

Flat Noodle
24-09-2011, 10:13 AM
NZ by 1-24 wins, but under lost, dammit!

Flat Noodle
25-09-2011, 07:33 AM
Have gone for cheeky first score in Argies v Scots game to be a Drop Goal @ 8.50

Also have a dabble on NO TRY in the match @ 13.50

Flat Noodle
25-09-2011, 07:45 AM
DROP GOAL ATTEMPT BY ARGENTINA!!!!

MISSEDDDDDDD!!!!!

:(

Flat Noodle
25-09-2011, 09:11 AM
So close, both of them. :(

Bigtoe82
25-09-2011, 09:21 AM
Unlucky Noodle, 2 nice bets there and as you said, both so close! Top match though.

Flat Noodle
26-09-2011, 03:55 AM
Fancy Japan to beat Canada tmr @ 3.40

Finbar
26-09-2011, 05:24 AM
I'll be cheering on the Welsh today :)

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-shEvGjOggks/ToAMRFcCzdI/AAAAAAAAAJQ/TRXh0AOpX4k/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-26%252520at%25252015.19.26.png

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-Dj1VZr1HvF0/ToAMfksa2cI/AAAAAAAAAJY/E5X70X3uMDc/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-26%252520at%25252015.21.19.png

cantspell
26-09-2011, 08:11 AM
Excellent Trading Finbar

Flat Noodle
26-09-2011, 08:19 AM
81-7 !!!! Awesome work, Fin! :p

Finbar
26-09-2011, 09:22 AM
Should have been greedier on the lower handicap, bit jammy with the higher one :)

I need to find more markets like these, I think I've lost on one out of about 10 or so matches I've traded (well I say I lost, I had Russia +0.01p and Ire -15 on their match yesterday and Russia covered the spread by about 2pts but I see it as a loser really though

Hopefully keep up the winning record till the end of the group games

cantspell
26-09-2011, 06:42 PM
I am intrigued how you managed to green out on them

Finbar
26-09-2011, 10:59 PM
Quite a lot of explanation in the Betfair Trading thread, though nothing recently as I stopped doing it, am going to try to keep stats starting from yesterday and reserve my Betfair account for only trading, that's the hard bit as some markets aren't available outside betfair or I want to lay off a potential win, will try to not touch it and if I do withdraw / deposit non traded bets.

As to how it's done, in brief, it's finding the right markets where there are gaps between the prices, well over 20,000 matched in total, plenty of people prepared to put in big bets at whatever price they see in front of them, and big bets waiting to be matched which stop the prices fluctuating too much.

Am going to try to trade the Italy vs USA -22.5 market, nothing guaranteed but looks like ok to start with.

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-5NVJLkDOchA/ToEAXvV9BHI/AAAAAAAAAJg/8bTjvb4HI88/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-27%252520at%25252008.43.58.png

USA price will probably not move in much, 2000 at 1.74 and 1.76 so am starting with a lay of 250 at 1.77, as that gets matched I'll try to back at 1.79 or (preferably) lay Italy at 2.26, hopefully (which has happened in this WC) the gap will be bigger and I can get matched at prices like 1.77 and back back at 1.82 or more, that's when the really nice greens come.

In the NZ -27.5 handicap I built a 80 green in about an hour just laying NZ at 1.33 and laying France at 3.65, left most of it next to NZ unfortunately, had I been at home I would have moved some of the green to France in running after the decent NZ start but unfortunately in Aus you can't bet in running (though I can at home).

The main market where I think I can make it work is the over / under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 markets. Have had some great wins there but also some bad losses where someone lumps on a massive bet and the price changes dramatically, still think it might be possible but need to work out how to avoid the bad losses if that is possible.

Also going to look into the american sports as I think they might work well too

Finbar
26-09-2011, 11:07 PM
Almost immediately that market gets too liquid so am looking at the Italy +10.5 market instead. Downside of doing this is that you need to keep an eye on the market changes and changing your betting accordingly, though I quite enjoy that bit

Flat Noodle
27-09-2011, 05:59 AM
Fancy Japan to beat Canada tmr @ 3.40
Gutted. BET365 has draw option and this one is a loser :grrr: :veryangry

Finbar
27-09-2011, 06:19 AM
Very annoying

Am fully behind the USA next up, hopefully the Italy will crumble

Today's trading a bit quieter than yesterday, chances of a good profit if USA can keep it tight

Have also laid Italy at 1.05 (on Betdaq to keep my Betfair for trading only)

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/--SOffw-IRSY/ToFqHsLy8yI/AAAAAAAAAJo/Q73e3jqV2hE/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-27%252520at%25252013.32.32.png

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-DFYL7bTwaLg/ToFqH389rhI/AAAAAAAAAJw/4FtOFEWvYCE/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-27%252520at%25252016.12.27.png

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-xdPTZJIEKto/ToFqHnPVopI/AAAAAAAAAJs/72bpuPni1xY/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-27%252520at%25252016.13.00.png

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-SaEhWvVjlVc/ToFqI3wlNBI/AAAAAAAAAJ0/b6wafok8gMw/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-27%252520at%25252016.14.41.png

Finbar
27-09-2011, 06:53 AM
GO ON THE EAGLES!!!!

Finbar
28-09-2011, 06:09 AM
Cheering on Georgia today, surely have too much for Romania

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-zypdWuqz7UA/ToK5vQHVQCI/AAAAAAAAAL8/3BN4crSQQsU/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-28%252520at%25252016.07.01.png

Flat Noodle
28-09-2011, 08:14 AM
nice work as usual, fin :p

Finbar
30-09-2011, 07:17 AM
Banking on a big SA win

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/--qtTJKI9gUk/ToVsqeTUpRI/AAAAAAAAAME/vZhijCbDQ6g/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-30%252520at%25252017.13.48.png

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-JHqHIXgQZtg/ToVsqgQwMdI/AAAAAAAAAMI/0gcHaMU6qmc/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-30%252520at%25252017.14.04.png

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-Z4F3xWvXx0Y/ToVsqneWwLI/AAAAAAAAAMM/rZcMnuhfHIc/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-09-30%252520at%25252017.14.16.png

Finbar
30-09-2011, 09:46 AM
Balls

Almost did some laying off at half time but resisted, ah well onwards and upwards :)

Flat Noodle
30-09-2011, 10:25 AM
I knew something wasn't quite right when the line was set at 17.5, much lower than most would have expected. The bookies knew something we don't, obviously. :(

Flat Noodle
02-10-2011, 12:21 PM
QF draw:

Ireland v Wales
England v France

South Africa v Australia
New Zealand v Argentina

The top half looks a lot easier than the bottom half, but the Aussies only have themselves to blame for losing to the Irish. With Drew Mitchell out, I reckon the Boks will edge us before losing to the Kiwis in SF. The All Blacks will be without Dan Carter for the rest of tournament, but they have class all over the park and I don't think they really need to rely on his boot to win this tournament. $1.77 is still available for the All Blacks to win, pretty close to a Goldmine bet.

As for the top half, both England and France did struggled in their last matches. This Ashton guy isn't half bad from what I've seen, so I reckon he'll be the difference for the English winning this one. Can't split between the Irish and Welsh, will probably go with the Green Machine if I have to. Regardless of who wins from the top half, they'll get slaughered by the All Blacks in the Final.

cantspell
02-10-2011, 08:03 PM
Interesting Flat

from what I have seen Ireland and Wales have been best in top half section, Wales have a good young side, but the Irish old guard appear to have a steely determination. Close game and I expect the winner to get to the final.

France were a mess in their match the other day and consequently I expect England to win.

I agree with your take on the SA Australia game and NZ will walk allover the Argies.

I think your "suggested" goldmne bet is a good one.

Flat Noodle
03-10-2011, 01:45 AM
I'm warming more and more to the Irish to reach the Final.

NZ/Ireland Quinella @ $5.00 is tempting.

saxoneagle
03-10-2011, 01:54 AM
I'm warming more and more to the Irish to reach the Final.

NZ/Ireland Quinella @ $5.00 is tempting.


Not that betting is my thing, but wouldn't you get better odds if you bet on the individual matches, rolling your money forward each time?

For example, bet on Ireland to beat Wales and then put the winnings on NZ to beat Arg... and so on, like a 4 match accer?

Flat Noodle
03-10-2011, 02:43 AM
The way I see it:

Ireland tb Wales @ 1.60
NZ tb Argentina @ 1.02
Ireland tb England/France @ 2.20 (estimated)
NZ tb Australia/South Africa @ 1.40 (if lucky)

Works out to be around $5 as well... but there's no guarantee I'll get those odds on Ireland and NZ in the Semis, especially if they can win their QF convincingly.

saxoneagle
03-10-2011, 02:51 AM
The way I see it:

Ireland tb Wales @ 1.60
NZ tb Argentina @ 1.02
Ireland tb England/France @ 2.20 (estimated)
NZ tb Australia/South Africa @ 1.40 (if lucky)

Works out to be around $5 as well... but there's no guarantee I'll get those odds on Ireland and NZ in the Semis, especially if they can win their QF convincingly.

Makes sense... and if Ireland win by a lot and Eng/Fra is a shit match like it should be, then that 2.2 won't be anything like.

Finbar
03-10-2011, 03:53 AM
I think

Wales will beat Ireland
France will beat England, best bet of the quarters
NZ will beat the Argies
SA will beat AUS

Wales will beat France
SA will beat NZ

I think Wales might just win it (as long is it is SA/Aus not NZ) but if they do lose to Ire then Ire will beat Eng/Fra

Bizarre how it's worked out North vs Southern hemisphere each half of the draw

Flat Noodle
03-10-2011, 04:05 AM
wow, those are some big calls and upsets you're predicting, Finny! :eek:

Finbar
03-10-2011, 04:11 AM
I think the only big upset is NZ to choke / lose in the semi final. I do think if they get past that they'll win though

France beating England (2.8ish) wouldn't be that big a shock considering how bad England have been.

Ireland have been good but they were only slightly ahead of them in the outright betting coming into this

The Aus / SA game is a coin toss oddswise but I think SA will win with a bit in hand, hope not though

Some cracking rugby to come though

saxoneagle
03-10-2011, 04:12 AM
I'm inclined to agree with his QF results but think the SFs will be the other way around... which will have every Kiwi shitting his pants about a French victory in a game that matters again.

No team that has lost a game has ever won a WC before. Not only might France be the first, they might lose TWO and win it.

Finbar
03-10-2011, 04:26 AM
That would be incredible :)

Flat Noodle
03-10-2011, 04:30 AM
I think the only big upset is NZ to choke / lose in the semi final. I do think if they get past that they'll win though

France beating England (2.8ish) wouldn't be that big a shock considering how bad England have been.

Ireland have been good but they were only slightly ahead of them in the outright betting coming into this

The Aus / SA game is a coin toss oddswise but I think SA will win with a bit in hand, hope not though

Some cracking rugby to come though
I like how you're able to put the word "though" 3 times in one post :D

Finbar
03-10-2011, 04:32 AM
Interesting observation, though I don't see your point :D

Flat Noodle
03-10-2011, 04:52 AM
Sorry, I obviously got distracted by all the "though"s.

The French squad are in turmoil at the moment, I'll be shocked if the Poms lose to be honest. Tindall has been creating plenty of headlines for all the wrong reason, but you gotta admit they've been much more convincing on the field than the French Fries. Ireland is 51-49 ahead of the Welsh in my opinion.

The current Boks and Wallabies won't be beating the All Blacks on their home turf. There's obviously a lot of pressure for the Kiwis to deliver and rid the "chokers" tag, which is probably the only question mark I can put my finger on. But I think there's enough experience in the team now that they can rely on.

ozeagle
03-10-2011, 05:05 AM
wow, those are some big calls and upsets you're predicting, Finny! :eek:

Finny?
You ARE gay, and I claim my $5.

:confused:

Beckenham Boy
06-10-2011, 10:34 AM
Going for a treble on England, Ireland and Aussies that pays 5.76

Not worth adding NZ to that as odds 1/13

Finbar
06-10-2011, 10:37 AM
So basically you disagree with me on all 3 counts :p

Beckenham Boy
06-10-2011, 10:38 AM
Of course!!!

Finbar
09-10-2011, 01:25 AM
Finbar 2 - Beckenham Boy 0

:D

Beckenham Boy
09-10-2011, 02:08 AM
Hahahaha fair do's!

Flat Noodle
10-10-2011, 07:12 AM
I think

Wales will beat Ireland
France will beat England, best bet of the quarters
NZ will beat the Argies
SA will beat AUS

Wales will beat France
SA will beat NZ

I think Wales might just win it (as long is it is SA/Aus not NZ) but if they do lose to Ire then Ire will beat Eng/Fra

Bizarre how it's worked out North vs Southern hemisphere each half of the draw
Closest prediction :p

Finbar
10-10-2011, 07:25 AM
Stupid Saffers cost me a few quid, though I did back Aus at evens to cover some of it

I've said all along NZ won't win and I stand by that, Aus might well have a good performance in them but if they don't then Wales could well do it

Tempted to lay NZ in the outright at 1.67 in order to back at 1.7+, they're 1.45 to beat Aus (which is bigger than I thought they would be), making them 1.15 to beat France or Wales which sounds far too short to me. Just can't see that 1.67 going in and it could well go out to 1.75 or bigger.

Finbar
10-10-2011, 07:26 AM
Just laid NZ at 1.68 for 235 now hopefully wait and watch the price drift...

Flat Noodle
11-10-2011, 04:14 AM
Wales and NZ final.

The double pays 2.59

Finbar
12-10-2011, 10:15 PM
Just laid NZ at 1.68 for 235 now hopefully wait and watch the price drift...

Topped up to 300, backed it back at 1.73 for a 15 green on NZ, transferred that straight to Wales (who were previously at 0) so I know I'll have 85 green on one of the finalists

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-7JIrTFV2mDI/TpYRTLZZ4PI/AAAAAAAAAOg/y2Lo-mG9j58/s465/Screen%252520shot%2525202011-10-13%252520at%25252008.12.36.png

Finbar
12-10-2011, 10:33 PM
Agree on Wales, am still convinced NZ won't win the WC but maybe they'll lose in the final

Wales and NZ final.

The double pays 2.59

Flat Noodle
16-10-2011, 12:37 PM
The odds are out for the NZ ($1.10) v France ($7.00) final.

I think this must be the shortest price ever in a Final. :eek:

Finbar
18-10-2011, 11:17 AM
NZ to score a try in first 10mins is 7/2 with Billy Hills, seems good to me...

Finbar
18-10-2011, 11:28 AM
advertised here but can't find it on their site :grrr:

http://news.williamhill.com/en/a/rugby-world-cup/rugby-world-cup-72-new-zealand-to-score-try-inside-10-mins/