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srs9jps
12-12-2013, 05:51 PM
I've been researching the bookings market this season and normally record my notes onto a word document before deleting. So I thought why not post here and share my thoughts with you all, and hopefully some of you might share your thoughts as well.

From the season so far I have discovered that there are a number of factors to look at:

1. Past Head to Head games between the teams
2. The referee (will there be lots of cards?)
3. Past history between the clubs and the referee

4. Current disciplinary record
5. Past disciplinary record
6. Player's Position

In my experience the value comes from identifying patterns from 1-3. Betvic tend to offer less value and seem to price up according to 4 and 6 So value can be found from them by identifying attacking players who may be booked. Skybet offer very fair odds, mostly based on 4/5 extrabet, 888bet also price up some bookings markets but tend to do so very last minute.

palace nutter
12-12-2013, 05:58 PM
I would've thought the six points you put are fairly obvious aren't they? Or have I missed your point?

srs9jps
12-12-2013, 06:09 PM
Man City v Arsenal - Martin Atkinson

13/1/13 - Arsenal 0 Man C 2
Booked: Vermaelen, Wilshire, Clichy, Barry, Garcia, Milner
Sent off: Koscielny, Kompany

23/9/12 - Man C 1 Arsenal 1
Booked: Garcia

8/4/12 - Arsenal 1 Man C 0
Booked: Koscielny, Milner, Toure, Zabaleta
Sent off: Ballotelli

18/12/11 - Man C 1 Arsenal 0
Booked: Koscielny, Arteta, Song, Barry, Aguero


So straight away Koscielny is jumping out at me.
2 bookings and a sending off in his last 4 games v Man City.

Also Garcia has played Arsenal twice and has been booked both times.

Now for the ref...

srs9jps
12-12-2013, 06:17 PM
I would've thought the six points you put are fairly obvious aren't they? Or have I missed your point?

You'd think so, but from the odds offered the odds setters pay less attention to points 1-3, hence by focusing on them you can get some great value.

e.g. see my previous post on Koscielny. He has only been booked in one game this season (Villa on the opening day when he was booked twice and sent off) but past history indicates he tends to get booked against Man City. Hopefully, if skybet price up how they normally do, I would expect to get about 4/1 on him to be booked and 16/1 on him to be first player carded.

srs9jps
12-12-2013, 06:40 PM
Atkinson: 24 yellows (0 red cards) in 9 premier league games this season, average of 2.7 per game.

ARSENAL 2 Liverpool 0
Booked: Sagna, Jenkinson + 1 lpool player
Sunderland 1 ARSENAL 3
Booked: Sagna, Flamini + 1 sunderland player

So... Sagna has been booked both times Atkisnon has refereed him this season.


Shortlist:
Koscielny
Garcia - will he play?
Sagna - injured?

srs9jps
12-12-2013, 08:49 PM
Hull City v Stoke

No relevant h2h.

Ref: M.Dean 35 bookings in 10 matches (plus 2 red cards). Average of 3.7 cards per game.

Arsenal 3 STOKE 1
Bookings: Huth, Ireland


Not enough really... No bet.

srs9jps
12-12-2013, 09:04 PM
WBA v Cardiff

H.Webb 35 bookings in 12 matches (no red cards), average 2.9

West Ham 2 CARDIFF 0
Booked: Connelly
Norwich 4 WBA 0
Booked: Olson +2 Norwich players
WBA 1 Arsenal 3
Booked: Jones, Ridgewell +5 ars players

No bet.

srs9jps
12-12-2013, 09:09 PM
Chelsea v CP

M.Clattenburg, 33 cards in 10, average 3.3

CP v Spurs
Booked: Jedinak

no bet.

srs9jps
12-12-2013, 09:35 PM
Everton v Fulham

24/9 Fulham 2 Everton 1
Booked:Parker, Stones, McCarthy, Gibson, Coleman
27/4 Everton 1 Fulham 0
Booked: Osman, Enoh, Manolev, Emanuelson
3/11/12 Fulham 2 Everton 2
Booked: Riise, Baird, Diarra, Osman
28/4/12 Everton 4 Fulham 0
Booked: Gibson, Diarra
27/1/12 Everton 2 Fulham 1
Gibson, Cahill, Hetinga, Dempsey, Baird
23/10/11 Fulham 1 Everton 3
Booked: Baird, Sidwell, Johnson, Distin

Osman and Gibson both booked twice but not sure either will play.

Ref: A.Taylor 33 cards (incl 2 reds) in 9 games. Average of 3.7 cards

When you look at past history between clubs and ref stats it looks as though there should be at least 3 or 4 bookings

Villa 0 EVERTON 2
Booked: Howard, McCarthy
Cardiff 0 EVERTON 0
Booked: Barkley +1 other

With bookings on the cards, maybe worth a punt on McCarthy depending on odds (booked by ref this season, and last time out against Fulham)

srs9jps
12-12-2013, 09:45 PM
Newcastle v Soton

24/2 Newcastle 4 Soton 2
Booked: Yoshida, Shaw, Rodriguez, Ramirez
25/11/12 Soton 2 Newcastle 0
Booked: Fonte, Ramirez, Tiote and Williamson

Ref: M.Jones - only ever reffd 2 prem league games - 3 yellows and 1 red

No bet.

srs9jps
12-12-2013, 10:18 PM
West Ham v Sunderland

12/1 Sunderland 3 WH 0
Booked: Diarra, Reid, Tomkins
22/9/12 WH 1 Sunderland 1
Booked: Jaskelainnan, Reid, Gardner
22/5/11 WH 0 Sunderland 3
Booked: Bardsley, Malbranque

Reid booked both times he has played against Sunderland.

Ref: A.Marriner - 37 cards in 12 games (incl 4 red cards), average 3.1 cards

3/12= 25% of games he has not booked anyone.

Hull 1 SUNDERLAND 0
Sent off: Dossena and Cattermole +1 booking
Soton 0 WEST HAM 0
Booked: Diame, Noble, OBrien +1
Spurs 1 SUNDERLAND 0
Sent off: Vaughan, 2 x yellow
Booked: Mandron, McClean, +1
WH 3 WBA 1
Booked: Reid +1yellow +1 red

In last 2 Sunderland games he has sent off 3 of their players. Perhaps this wont be one of the 25% without any cards? Too many nasty players in their team, incl their manager.

Shortlist:
Reid (booked by ref and 2/2 h2h) - injured?
Dossena/Cattermole - will they play?

srs9jps
12-12-2013, 11:37 PM
West Ham v Sunderland

12/1 Sunderland 3 WH 0
Booked: Diarra, Reid, Tomkins
22/9/12 WH 1 Sunderland 1
Booked: Jaskelainnan, Reid, Gardner
22/5/11 WH 0 Sunderland 3
Booked: Bardsley, Malbranque

Reid booked both times he has played against Sunderland.

Ref: A.Marriner - 37 cards in 12 games (incl 4 red cards), average 3.1 cards

3/12= 25% of games he has not booked anyone.

Hull 1 SUNDERLAND 0
Sent off: Dossena and Cattermole +1 booking
Soton 0 WEST HAM 0
Booked: Diame, Noble, OBrien +1
Spurs 1 SUNDERLAND 0
Sent off: Vaughan, 2 x yellow
Booked: Mandron, McClean, +1
WH 3 WBA 1
Booked: Reid +1yellow +1 red

In last 2 Sunderland games he has sent off 3 of their players. Perhaps this wont be one of the 25% without any cards? Too many nasty players in their team, incl their manager.

Shortlist:
Reid (booked by ref and 2/2 h2h) - injured?
Dossena/Cattermole - will they play?

http://www.readytogo.net/smb/threads/team-for-west-ham.847081/

All have Dossena and Cattermole to come back in.

May avoid Cattermole though:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25320907


With only betvic priced up so far, 7/2 Dossena to be carded anytime looks interesting. Will wait for more odds/team news before deciding.

Louis
13-12-2013, 04:36 PM
srs - do you specialise in cards now instead of shots on target (which you seemed to be concentrating on about a year ago)? Do you find it easier to make money on cards? I rarely, if ever, bet on bookings, but one thing I've noticed over the years is that there sometimes seems to be value betting on a LOW number of bookings. Sometimes punters and tipsters write about high-profile derby games, predicting a lot of bookings, and quite often the match has fewer than predicted.

srs9jps
13-12-2013, 04:55 PM
srs - do you specialise in cards now instead of shots on target (which you seemed to be concentrating on about a year ago)? Do you find it easier to make money on cards? I rarely, if ever, bet on bookings, but one thing I've noticed over the years is that there sometimes seems to be value betting on a LOW number of bookings. Sometimes punters and tipsters write about high-profile derby games, predicting a lot of bookings, and quite often the match has fewer than predicted.

Hi Louis, I stopped the shots on target purely because I didn't have the time to do the research. It was doing well but I fell behind with my data and simply couldn't keep on top of it. Cards is something that I can research in a couple of hours and there are better value odds to be had. Haven't gone down the Over/under total cards route as I'd rather concentrate on the higher prices on offer for individual cards (plus it is more enjoyable to watch a game hoping for a card than not!).

srs9jps
13-12-2013, 05:34 PM
I have placed my first bets for Saturday. 888sport and unibet have now priced up Saturday's tv games. They have Koscielny @3.5 to be booked anytime which I have taken (can't see skybet offering much better on Saturday morning and I'd rather get on now).

Here's the interesting one though... Although he wasn't on my initial shortlist based on criteria 1-3, Curtis Davies of Hull has been booked 5 times so far this season. About 1 in every 3 games. 888sport have him priced @5.5 to be booked anytime. Looks like value to me so will be taking it.

So my two selections so far are:

1.5 points on Koscielny @3.5 to be booked anytime
1.5 points on Curtis Davies @5.5 to be booked anytime
1 point on a double of the above

selections from 888sport

I'm not sure about whether using doubles are a good idea... something to think about long term.

Still waiting on other firms to price up Sunderland and Everton games but that may not be until tomorrow.

srs9jps
14-12-2013, 12:51 AM
So straight away Koscielny is jumping out at me.
2 bookings and a sending off in his last 4 games v Man City.

Also Garcia has played Arsenal twice and has been booked both times.

Now for the ref...
So... Sagna has been booked both times Atkisnon has refereed him this season.


According to John Cross, Sagna will play tomorrow.

For live games bookies also offer the 'first player to be carded' market.

Betvic were the first to price up (and the only ones to offer it on all prem games) but they have increased their prices after betfred priced up this evening. Skybet will price up in the morning so would usually wait for then but not sure if I will be around, and I'm happy with the prices being offered so have got on now.

1 point Koscielny to be carded first @13.0
1 point Sagna to be carded first @13.0
1 point Garcia to be carded first @16.0 (May not start but will be void if he doesn't come on before the first card)

odds from betvictor

Hedgehog
14-12-2013, 02:26 AM
Some people have too much time on their hands!

Louis
14-12-2013, 03:02 AM
Some people have too much time on their hands!
Would that be your good self? ;)

Hedgehog
14-12-2013, 03:07 AM
Would that be your good self? ;)
Errrrrrr.... No. :)

srs9jps
14-12-2013, 12:04 PM
Some people have too much time on their hands!

If I didn't take the time to do research I'd end up betting on all sorts of rubbish! Not doing any extra than I normally do- just posting it on here rather than on a word document at home.

srs9jps
14-12-2013, 12:07 PM
Garcia on the bench. Sagna plays. Disappointingly skybet are yet to price up their cards markets.

srs9jps
14-12-2013, 12:50 PM
At the last minute betfair suddenly had some liquidity on the cards market. Managed to get on the following with seconds to spare:

0.5 point Sagna to be booked anytime @5.0 betfair

Reason for the small bet is that is all I had in the account and didnt have time to top up!

srs9jps
14-12-2013, 07:56 PM
It soesnt help when your main fancy gets subbed before half time! No joy today. Will look into tomorrow later whilst watching the cricket.

srs9jps
15-12-2013, 02:10 AM
Man u v villa

Man u 3 Villa 0
Booked: Evra
Villa 2 Man u 3
Booked: Ireland/Carrick
Man U 4 Villa 0
Booked: Carrick/Scholes/Nani/Hutton/Bannan/Gardner
Villa 0 Man U 1
No bookings


Chris Foy - 30 cards in 3 games,
Sunderland 1 MAN U 2
Januzai/Rooney/Vidic/Rafael +2 others
Norwich 0 VILLA 1
No Villa bookings, 1 norwich booking
Spurs 1 MAN U 1
Evra/Rafael/Carrick/Rooney
MAN U 2 SWANSEA 1
Rooney

Foy loves to book Rooney!

2 points Rooney to be carded anytime @4.5 betfred
1 point Rooney to be carded first @21.0 betvictor

srs9jps
15-12-2013, 02:44 AM
Norwich 2 Swansea 2 Same ref!
Turner/Snodgrass/Johnson/Deguzman/Williams/Davies/Holt/Tettey
Swansea 3 Norwich 4
Williams/Angel/Martin

M.Oliver - 46 cards in 11 games - approx 4 per game

SWANSEA 2 Liverpool 2
Williams/Shelvey +3
NORWICH 2 Everton 2
Turner/Martin
SWANSEA 1 Norwich 1
Chico/Williams +3 others

Williams booked last two times these have played and last 3 times Oliver has refereed him Love stats like these!

2 points Williams to be booked anytime @4.0 betvictor
0.5 points anytime double Rooney/Williams @14.0 betvictor