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View Full Version : Football betting previews thread - would you post on one?


Louis
16-07-2016, 05:13 AM
For a few years, I have been an active poster on a betting forum called 'Punters Lounge' where punters share views on sports bets. For me, it has been bets on football.

Unfortunately, forum activity on PL has declined noticeably in the last year or so (not helped by lots of forum changes) and most of the quality posters have disappeared. So I don't post much there much any more.

This is the Punters Lounge forum ...
https://forum.punterslounge.com/

One of the benefits of Punters Lounge was comparing notes on worthwhile bets and learning from others. I've been wondering if there was another forum for me to post on (there are a few others), but none of them excite me. So I thought, why not do it here?

So - what interest would there be in posting football betting previews here? I mean properly thought out ones, where the 'value' of any bet is explained and justfied over at least a few paragraphs, rather than just random tips.

Here are some examples of the types of post I mean, on the still-useful and active non-league section of Punters Lounge ...
https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/156727-non-league-april-matches/?page=1

I don't want to start a solo blog-style thread with just me posting. I'd like one with several people actively contributing and commenting. It could be very useful - and fun :sunglasses: The idea would be discuss in some detail the value of any bets on football.

What do you reckon? Would you actively post on such a thread? If there's evidence of enough interest, I'll start a new thread.

Louis
22-07-2016, 08:46 AM
** bump **

Interesting responses so far :moo2:

Mad Max
22-07-2016, 11:50 AM
Love a footie bet.Have an account with William Hill.Started with 10 and I`ve got 86 in it now.I don`t bet every week as some weeks I just can`t see any value.Then there are teams I absolutely refuse to bet for or against as they always let me down.Orient is one,Oldham another after THAT year.I`m up for a betting forum if not just use this one.

si1965
22-07-2016, 12:14 PM
I belong to a few message boards but don't often post on many - the only one other than the BBS that I regularly contribute to is on OLBG where they have an Underdog of the weekend thread (part of the Other football betting forum) which is always well supported and you get some good info on possible value bets. It is run by mazeymay who is a fellow Palace supporter (not sure if he is on here though).

Far East Eagle
22-07-2016, 11:14 PM
I love a bet and having an interesting thread like the OP says where good value bets are put forward and explained would be great

Louis
23-07-2016, 01:50 PM
I think one of the benefits of having a 'Sensible football bets' type thread would be having to justify WHY it is a good bet. A bet that might at first seem a 'no-brainer' might not look quite so good if you had to do a write-up justifying it and looking at the pluses and minuses.

Mad Max
23-07-2016, 01:56 PM
Ker ching,first win of the season,Moyes Sunderland manager.

si1965
25-07-2016, 03:02 PM
I think one of the benefits of having a 'Sensible football bets' type thread would be having to justify WHY it is a good bet. A bet that might at first seem a 'no-brainer' might not look quite so good if you had to do a write-up justifying it and looking at the pluses and minuses.

I think it would need some firm guidelines (rules) which would require some ongoing administering (a referee if you like). As you say, it has to be more that "I like Team A to win" and needs to include some sound reasoning. Of course, what some people regard as sound reasoning others may regard as complete and utter tosh. I am happy for there to be criticism and discussion as long as it does not get personal and is focused on the 'facts'.

How broad a category were you thinking?
All football bets?
All UK football?
Premier and Football League only?
All types of bet market or just the main betting markets?

Icy
25-07-2016, 03:20 PM
I think one of the benefits of having a 'Sensible football bets' type thread would be having to justify WHY it is a good bet. A bet that might at first seem a 'no-brainer' might not look quite so good if you had to do a write-up justifying it and looking at the pluses and minuses.

The betting goldmine was excellent for this.

Personally i find it hard to get much value out of the premiership and championship, to unpredictable. Most of the decent wins I've had was betting on European or South American football (including a load of tips off the betting goldmine thread).

Mad Max
25-07-2016, 03:55 PM
I think we should stick to football but make it all football.

bhcp
26-07-2016, 07:44 AM
Love a footie bet.Have an account with William Hill.Started with 10 and I`ve got 86 in it now.I don`t bet every week as some weeks I just can`t see any value.Then there are teams I absolutely refuse to bet for or against as they always let me down.Orient is one,Oldham another after THAT year.I`m up for a betting forum if not just use this one.

Good work. I'd try using a different bookie. Hills margins always seem more than double some of the others for football. They always seem to run a book at 112% whereas bet365, Skybet, paddy seem to go 104-107 %.

Louis
26-07-2016, 02:29 PM
Good work. I'd try using a different bookie. Hills margins always seem more than double some of the others for football. They always seem to run a book at 112% whereas bet365, Skybet, paddy seem to go 104-107 %.
I thought Bet365 and ran at a lot more than 107% on football? Perhaps their margins have been forced down by competition though.

Louis
26-07-2016, 02:33 PM
The betting goldmine was excellent for this.

Personally i find it hard to get much value out of the premiership and championship, to unpredictable. Most of the decent wins I've had was betting on European or South American football (including a load of tips off the betting goldmine thread).
I mainly remember the goldmine for its' 'curse' - short odds bets regularly failing disastrously ;) Glad it worked for you though.

Louis
26-07-2016, 02:35 PM
Well it looks as though there is a fair bit of interest in this idea. I'm just thinking about how to do it (without making it too complicated) ...

Icy
26-07-2016, 03:11 PM
I mainly remember the goldmine for its' 'curse' - short odds bets regularly failing disastrously ;) Glad it worked for you though.

Smashed it for me. Whoever posted the South American football tips won me about 500 on his own!

si1965
26-07-2016, 03:24 PM
The trouble with the Goldmine thread (apart from the 'curse') was that it did not promote any discussion - it was a case of "this is a winner - get on it"
I like to be educated and (hopefully) get better at betting so, while it is good to get the occasional dead cert, in the long run it is more valuable to learn, for example, that while a team is odds on it tends to win by a single goal against top half opposition or does not concede against the teams from the bottom of the division - information that can steer you to a more profitable betting market.
As Icy points out above, there is so much info and stats about the Premiership / Championship / major Euro Leagues that uncovering original info is difficult but as you go down the football ladder the lack of generally available intelligence is actually to our benefit.

Louis
27-07-2016, 05:55 AM
Smashed it for me. Whoever posted the South American football tips won me about 500 on his own!
Those were posted by GodstoneEagle, who is a football writer

Louis
27-07-2016, 06:46 AM
The trouble with the Goldmine thread (apart from the 'curse') was that it did not promote any discussion - it was a case of "this is a winner - get on it"
I was just looking back at the Goldmine thread (I was doing the records for it for a while).

The agreed 'Goldmine Rules' were:

Reminder of Goldmine Rules (as agreed by regulars on this board)

A Goldmine Bet is one that is:

1. Very likely to win
2. Backed up by detailed reasoning as to WHY it will win
3. Minimum odds of 1.5 (or 1/2)

Please put everything else in another thread - if in doubt try the Betting Thread :p


But quite often people didn't provide detailed reasoning ...

Plymouth to Qualify against Portmouth at 1/2 on Will Hill. Detailed reasoning: I think they will qualify.

Racing to beat SMSJ - 1.77

They will.

Trust me on this. Racing win this game.

"Because Racing will win the game" is my reasoning.

Should be 1.3-1.4


In reality, it's hard to enforce and 'police' rules. I think the best approach might be to encourage people to go into detail and hope that a lot do. If someone repeatedly posts 'Chelsea to win @ 4/6 - get on' style tips without explanation, they could be encouraged to post elsewhere, like the Betting Thread.

I was also wondering what we should call the new thread. The title should set the tone for the content.

Louis
28-07-2016, 09:24 AM
Anyone got any ideas for a good thread title?

Louis
28-07-2016, 09:26 AM
How broad a category were you thinking?
All football bets?
All UK football?
Premier and Football League only?
All types of bet market or just the main betting markets?
I was thinking all football bets, with the accent being on serious thought-out discussion.

Louis
29-07-2016, 03:58 PM
OK, time to get the new thread started.

I think we need:

a) some thread guidelines
b) an appropriate thread title

My thinking is we would have some thread guidelines stating that the thread is for researched football bets with at least a paragraph of reasoning (say 50 words or more). The thread would encourage discussion of possible value, and posts would not have to include tips.

The guidelines would state that the thread is NOT for one-line tips, and would direct people to the Betting Thread for those. People would be encouraged to post up the results of any bets.

I do think we need a good and appropriate title. Here are some ideas. I think the title should emphasise the 'serious' nature of the thread.

Football bets discussion
Football bet previews
Researched football bets
Value football bet ideas
Value football bets discussion

Any thoughts anyone?

Far East Eagle
30-07-2016, 06:56 PM
Researched football bets sounds good

Mabs
30-07-2016, 09:00 PM
Researched football bets sounds a decent title for the thread. Hopefully members would post up with good reasoning as to why they are making a specific bet. It wouldn't have to be 100's of words but at least a little insight that could help others in choosing a game to bet on. Inviting discussion would also make the thread more appealing as long it is friendly chat. It would be a thread that I would definitely become involved in and I look forward to it getting off the ground, you certainly have my support

Mabs
31-07-2016, 12:36 AM
Just to add a few more of my thoughts
I would hope the thread allows selections from football across the globe
Any of the 100+ markets that are usually available with most bookmakers as there are people who concentrate on a specific market and not just the home win, away win or draw as this would also provide information and insight to members who don't know much about the many different markets on offer and would possibly open up new avenues for them

Louis
31-07-2016, 04:08 AM
I would hope the thread allows selections from football across the globe
Of course :p (And beyond the globe if there are any)

Louis
31-07-2016, 04:09 AM
Any of the 100+ markets that are usually available with most bookmakers as there are people who concentrate on a specific market and not just the home win, away win or draw as this would also provide information and insight to members who don't know much about the many different markets on offer and would possibly open up new avenues for them
Like corners or bookings for example? Yes, of course - that's exactly what it will be for :)

Stavros 69
31-07-2016, 10:59 AM
I'm in, always like to make some cash during the season.
But defo worth having a dedicated thread to pure football betting.
I would include European leagues as well on it.

Louis
31-07-2016, 11:12 AM
I would include European leagues as well on it.
The idea is for it include any discussion of bets on all football (UK, European, other countries, internationals, friendlies, youth tournaments, reserve games, Womens games, Olympic football etc).

Stavros 69
31-07-2016, 11:15 AM
Awesome. I'm in and will defo be a regular contributor.

Louis
31-07-2016, 12:19 PM
There is support for 'Researched football bets' as the thread title, so that's going to be it unless anyone has any better ideas

Louis
31-07-2016, 06:26 PM
Proposed thread title and guidelines (which will be in the first post).

Any comments welcome ...

==================


Thread Title:
"Researched football bets"

Guidelines:
"This thread is for the discussion of researched football bets - not just to put up your 'weekend punt' (please post those bets on the Betting Thread or elsewhere).

The idea is to share and discuss football bets that might be 'good value' - i.e. available at a price that you believe is worth taking. Any suggested bets should be justified in writing, preferably at least a paragraph of 100 words or so. The justification should be more than 'because it's a good bet'. If suggesting a bet, it would be useful if you could post up the result when known.

Writing about a market without suggesting a bet is also welcome (e.g. an introduction to a particular tournament or match). The idea is cover all football bets in all markets worldwide - UK, European, Rest of the World, International, Youth, Reserve, Womens, Friendlies, etc."

BLUE BOY
31-07-2016, 07:02 PM
Will follow the relevant thread once its up and running. :p

si1965
01-08-2016, 12:42 PM
Not sure whether adding a competitive edge by keeping track of who posts the most successful tips is a good idea or not, however, it might be useful to keep a record of which Leagues and/or betting markets are most profitable.

Louis
01-08-2016, 03:37 PM
Not sure whether adding a competitive edge by keeping track of who posts the most successful tips is a good idea or not, however, it might be useful to keep a record of which Leagues and/or betting markets are most profitable.
This is the sort of thing we could do over time :p

Louis
01-08-2016, 06:21 PM
New thread is up and running here:

http://www.cpfc.org/forums/showthread.php?t=266499

Louis
01-08-2016, 06:21 PM
Please post any comments on the new thread now, not this one ;)