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Louis
01-08-2016, 06:20 PM
1st August 2016

Introduction
This thread is for the discussion of researched football bets - not just to put up your 'weekend punt' (please post those bets on the Betting Thread or elsewhere).

Betting Thread:
http://www.cpfc.org/forums/showthread.php?t=29394

Guidelines
The idea is to share and discuss football bets that might be 'good value' - i.e. available at a price that you believe is worth taking. Any suggested bets should be justified in writing, preferably at least a paragraph of 50 words or so. The justification should be more than 'because it's a good bet'. If suggesting a bet, it would be useful if you could post up the result when known.

Writing about something without suggesting a bet is also welcome (e.g. an introduction to a particular tournament or match). The idea is cover all football bets in all markets worldwide - UK, European, Rest of the World, International, Youth, Reserve, Womens, Friendlies, etc.

All views and comments welcome :)

LLCOOLSTEVE
01-08-2016, 07:10 PM
Not wishing to distract but A Palace fan won this.....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3718336/Seventh-heaven-Punter-wins-60-000-betting-1-40-three-football-matches-finish-7-0.html

come on, who are you?!

CharlieCPFC
01-08-2016, 07:17 PM
Not wishing to distract but A Palace fan won this.....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3718336/Seventh-heaven-Punter-wins-60-000-betting-1-40-three-football-matches-finish-7-0.html

come on, who are you?!

Delighted for him, what a bet.

LLCOOLSTEVE
01-08-2016, 07:37 PM
Anyways, im sorry to say I dont put much research into my football bets but interested to see what people come up with

I have a couple of long term bets for the season, one of which is AFC Wimbeldon to be relegated at 4/1, I believe its value after their promotion, they are a small team in the grand scheme of things in league 1 and I think they shall struggle after their promotion momentum wears off; I also think the fact that 4 go down provides further value.

Louis
01-08-2016, 08:43 PM
Not wishing to distract but A Palace fan won this.....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3718336/Seventh-heaven-Punter-wins-60-000-betting-1-40-three-football-matches-finish-7-0.html

come on, who are you?!
Great stuff :p

Although, checking the odds, online bookies including Betfred were offering around 50-1 on each 7-0 scoreline, which would have returned over £185,000 on a patent bet of 3 singles, 3 doubles and a treble. As opposed to the £60,000 Betfred paid out here.

Correct score odds on Saturday's games:
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/scotland/betfred-cup/dundee-fc-forfar-athletic-Q9pbjm2p/#cs;2;50

cpfclife
01-08-2016, 09:34 PM
I fancy Newcastle to beat Fulham at the cottage at evens. With Benitez, that strong squad and Dwight Gayle up top will be too much for Fulham. Double chance is good odds as well if you want to play it safe.
Also the first week of the Premiership I fancy Leicester at evens to beat Hull away from home at just over evens is great value as well. Hull have no manager and only something like 13 outfield players

BERT'S HEAD
02-08-2016, 08:59 AM
Great stuff :p

Although, checking the odds, online bookies including Betfred were offering around 50-1 on each 7-0 scoreline, which would have returned over £185,000 on a patent bet of 3 singles, 3 doubles and a treble. As opposed to the £60,000 Betfred paid out here.

Correct score odds on Saturday's games:
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/scotland/betfred-cup/dundee-fc-forfar-athletic-Q9pbjm2p/#cs;2;50

Betfred were offering 80/1 66/1 50/1 on the 7-0s and apparently his return is the most he would have got for the stake of 1.40.

SEEPEEEFFSEE
02-08-2016, 10:04 AM
Follow the betting man on Facebook, also has an app.
Essentially he puts together chains of 11 bets with an initial stake of £25 that rise to £1000 if all bets come in. I've followed him for a while and he's really good but you have to be quick because he tips a lot on in-plays and some very obscure games all over Europe.

si1965
02-08-2016, 12:05 PM
I fancy Newcastle to beat Fulham at the cottage at evens. With Benitez, that strong squad and Dwight Gayle up top will be too much for Fulham. Double chance is good odds as well if you want to play it safe.
Also the first week of the Premiership I fancy Leicester at evens to beat Hull away from home at just over evens is great value as well. Hull have no manager and only something like 13 outfield players

Certainly on paper they both look like solid bets - early season results however often spring a few surprises.
Fulham have had a solid pre-season with victories over Brighton and most recently Palace - while they have already lost Dembele to Celtic and McCormack is a Norwich target they might have a ready replacement up front in Aluko who netted against Palace. Having said that there are reports of illness which might stretch an already limited squad (although with the best part of a week still to go it is likely to have cleared up by the time they face Newcastle):
Reports prior to the (Newcastle) game suggested there is a virus in the Fulham camp that has struck down some of the squad - Kevin McDonald, Tomas Kalas and Matt Smith clearly had the best immune systems of the group and were the sole survivors from the starting lineup that drew with CD National in Portugal on Monday.
Slavisa Jokanovic was not afforded the luxury of the standard pre-season strength in depth and could just about scrape four substitutes together in the shape of Richard Stearman, Scott Parker, Lasse Vigen Christensen and U21ís goalkeeper Marek Rodak - hardly the greatest start of what is meant to be the season that sees Fulham recover. [getwestlondon.co.uk]

si1965
02-08-2016, 12:10 PM
Just came across this which casts some doubt upon the virus story
Fulham are officially denying Internet rumours of a virus in the camp, despite only naming a squad of 15 for this game (against CPFC).
They say others are involved in an Under-23s game at Southampton, to give players maximum game time ahead of the season opener against Newcastle in six days' time.[westlondonsport.com]

Louis
03-08-2016, 01:01 PM
I'll be taking an interest in Womens Football at the Olympics, which starts today, Wednesday 3rd August. I followed this in 2015 and found it can throw up some decent betting opportunities.

It looks as though all games will be shown live on BBC Red Button/BBC online.

USA Women won the 2012 tournament and are easily the most successful team in the history of womens Olympic football. Brazil W and Germany W are the second and third most successful. All three of these, along with France. could win I think, with USA the clear favourites.

The 12 sides are divided into 3 groups of 4. 8 qualify for the quarter finals - the top 2 in each group, and the two best 3rd placed sides. So, a bit like the Euro 2016, it's quite hard not to qualify. I think this could lead to cautious defensive performances from teams trying to not to lose.


Wiki page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_at_the_2016_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Wom en%27s_tournament

Fifa page:
http://www.fifa.com/womensolympic/

BBC page:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/olympics


Group E
Brazil W
China W
Sweden W
S Africa W

Brazil should win the group
SA will struggle


Group F
Canada W
Australia W
Zimbabwe W
Germany W

Germany should win the group
Zimbabwe will struggle


Group G
USA W
NZ W
France W
Colombia W

USA should win the group
Colombia will struggle

Far East Eagle
04-08-2016, 11:51 AM
I've gone for China to win over 85.5 medals at 8/13. They won 88 in 2012 and with Russia being banned in many events there is less competition for medals

elgin eagle
04-08-2016, 12:05 PM
Have abandoned mug betting and now follow this guide. www.matchedbettingblog.com ,for both new, and existing customer offers.
Obviously isn't restricted to football bets but does include them. Would be interested to compare monthly profits with those doing 'researched football bets' though.

Louis
05-08-2016, 09:06 PM
I fancy Newcastle to beat Fulham at the cottage at evens. With Benitez, that strong squad and Dwight Gayle up top will be too much for Fulham. Double chance is good odds as well if you want to play it safe.
Just for the record, this bet lost - result was Fulham 1 Newcastle 0

SeanPalace84
05-08-2016, 09:23 PM
Last season every match day I did first goalscorer doubles, usually between about 6-10 players. Usually I'd choose the same players with odds of around 4/1-7/1. A couple of times I tried trebles as well. Overall I was definatelly up and although I never one hundreds doing it I'd sometimes pick up a fair bit even just by doing 20p doubles. Sometimes I would only stake £5.60 but have a nice little profit that would pay for the weekends bets etc. The fact that I do 1st goalscorers a lot meant that I enjoyed watching the games I betted on but had interest in quite a few. Bit random but definately a bet I'm going to carry on t doing this year.

aj4england
06-08-2016, 07:46 AM
I think for the first game of the season over 2.5 goals and both teams to score per game looks the market where most people go towards as they are not sure how new signings will go. Some research below shows that League 1 is generally the place to head on the first day for these markets. Championship in my opinion is so hard to call in terms of btts and goals market and the stats below show it.

Week 1
Championship
Over 2.5
15-16 4/12
14-15 4/12
13-14 7/12

BTTS
15-16. 6/12
14-15. 4/12
13-14. 8/12

League 1
Over 2.5
15-16 6/12
14-15. 8/12
13-14 7/12

BTTS
15-16. 8/12
14-15. 9/12
13-14. 9/12

League 2
Over 2.5
15-16. 4/12
14-15. 2/12
13-14. 6/12

BTTS
15-16. 4/12
14-15. 3/12
13-14. 6/12

Louis
06-08-2016, 08:52 PM
Womens Olympic Football
Group E
South Africa W v China W

Saturday Night
23.00 kick off
Live on BBC Red Button and online

I think this will be a good game. Both sides are under pressure, having lost their opening games against Sweden and Brazil respectively.

South Africa played well against Sweden, losing 1-0. China struggled against a powerful Brazil side.

There could be some value with South Africa Women at odds of 7.8 (with Marathon). The two sides are well apart on Fifa's Womens rankings. But South Africa have been getting good results recently under their experience Dutch coach Vera Pauw (who had six years as coach of Holland, and has managed Scotland and Russia).

Despite both sides putting the emphasis on defence, there could also be goals here as both will probably by trying for the win rather than settling for a draw.

I'm not recommending any bet but there could well be some value to be found when watching the game (as I will be doing), possibly on South Africa at long odds, or on 'overs' goals. Over 2.5 is 2.4 with Marathon pre-match.

elgin eagle
07-08-2016, 10:36 AM
http://matchedbettingblog.com/football/888sport-offer-goals-mean-more-2016-17/#more-84261

Nice, season long offer from 888 sport. Picked Forest. Every goal they score gives you a 5 pound free bet. Already 20 quid up due to the 4 Goals they scored yesterday :lux:

Louis
07-08-2016, 11:00 AM
Womens Olympic Football
Group E
South Africa W v China W

Saturday Night
23.00 kick off
Live on BBC Red Button and online

I think this will be a good game. Both sides are under pressure, having lost their opening games against Sweden and Brazil respectively.

South Africa played well against Sweden, losing 1-0. China struggled against a powerful Brazil side.

There could be some value with South Africa Women at odds of 7.8 (with Marathon). The two sides are well apart on Fifa's Womens rankings. But South Africa have been getting good results recently under their experience Dutch coach Vera Pauw (who had six years as coach of Holland, and has managed Scotland and Russia).

Despite both sides putting the emphasis on defence, there could also be goals here as both will probably by trying for the win rather than settling for a draw.

I'm not recommending any bet but there could well be some value to be found when watching the game (as I will be doing), possibly on South Africa at long odds, or on 'overs' goals. Over 2.5 is 2.4 with Marathon pre-match.
For the record:

Result:
South Africa W 0 China W 2

A well deserved win for China from what I saw. They dominated the majority of the game, and could have won by more but for poor finishing. South Africa had the edge in pace but were generally outclassed.

Louis
09-08-2016, 04:43 AM
Wednesday 10th August 20.00

Mens Olympic Football
Group C
South Korea v Mexico

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_at_the_2016_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men %27s_tournament#Group_C

With Germany are very likely to beat Fiji in the other game, this game will be seen as a straight fight for qualification from this group.

These two teams are level on points. South Korea lead Mexico on goal difference, meaning South Korea need a draw here and Mexico have to win to be sure to qualify. Both sides have an attacking style, and with the nature of this game I think goals are likely as both sides fight to qualify.

Over 2.5 goals are attractively priced at the moment and I think odds of over 1.8 are worth taking, for example with Marathon -

Over 2.5
1.86
Marathon

I'm aiming to watch the game live tomorrow night.

Louis
10-08-2016, 06:45 PM
Saturday 13th August 02.00

Womens Olympic Football
Quarter Final
Brazil Women v Australia Women

I think Australia's odds are too long here at over 7.0. They are 4.5 (over 3/1) with Marathon to qualify (a 2 horse race, as there is no draw in that market).

Australia are ranked above Brazil by Fifa (Fifa womens rankings are normally more accurate than their mens version). Australia have beaten Brazil in 2 of their last 4 meetings including the Womens World Cup in Canada last year.

Brazil have been in very good form and are at home here, so perhaps they should be favourites, but not by much. I think the difference in the odds is much too high and worth taking at the moment.

To qualify for semi-final
Australia Women
4.5
Marathon

I'm aiming to watch the game live on Friday night/Saturday morning.

Louis
10-08-2016, 08:06 PM
Wednesday 10th August 20.00

Mens Olympic Football
Group C
South Korea v Mexico

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_at_the_2016_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men %27s_tournament#Group_C

With Germany are very likely to beat Fiji in the other game, this game will be seen as a straight fight for qualification from this group.

These two teams are level on points. South Korea lead Mexico on goal difference, meaning South Korea need a draw here and Mexico have to win to be sure to qualify. Both sides have an attacking style, and with the nature of this game I think goals are likely as both sides fight to qualify.

Over 2.5 goals are attractively priced at the moment and I think odds of over 1.8 are worth taking, for example with Marathon -

Over 2.5
1.86
Marathon

I'm aiming to watch the game live tomorrow night.
Watching this game. It's 0-0 at half time, with Germany beating Fiji 6-0 at half time in the other group game. If Germany maintain that margin, they will go above Mexico on goal difference if S Korea v Mexico is a draw. So Mexico have to win here to qualify. S Korea only need a draw as they are above Mexico.

Mexico have done most of the attacking but S Korea have defended well and in numbers and tried to hit Mexico on the break. I'm fairly confident there will be at least one goal in the second half, as the pressure grows on both teams. If there's one goal in it in the last 10 minutes it's likely to be very open. Mexico remind me of their game against Fiji where they were poor in the first half and went in 1-0 down, but came back in the second half to win well. My guess is there will be between one and three goals in the second half.

LLCOOLSTEVE
10-08-2016, 08:48 PM
My guess is there will be between one and three goals in the second half.



So 2 then....

Louis
10-08-2016, 09:21 PM
wrong post - sorry

Louis
10-08-2016, 09:22 PM
Wednesday 10th August 20.00

Mens Olympic Football
Group C
South Korea v Mexico

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_at_the_2016_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men %27s_tournament#Group_C

With Germany are very likely to beat Fiji in the other game, this game will be seen as a straight fight for qualification from this group.

These two teams are level on points. South Korea lead Mexico on goal difference, meaning South Korea need a draw here and Mexico have to win to be sure to qualify. Both sides have an attacking style, and with the nature of this game I think goals are likely as both sides fight to qualify.

Over 2.5 goals are attractively priced at the moment and I think odds of over 1.8 are worth taking, for example with Marathon -

Over 2.5
1.86
Marathon

I'm aiming to watch the game live tomorrow night.
Result:
South Korea 1 Mexico 0

This bet lost

I watched nearly all the game live. South Korea deserved the win for their ruthlessly efficient defending which nullified the Mexican attack.They defended like Robots on Speed trained by Pulis.

South Korea scored 10 minutes from the end, meaning Mexico needed 2 goals, which they never looked like getting.

elgin eagle
11-08-2016, 12:03 AM
Result:
South Korea 1 Mexico 0

This bet lost

I watched nearly all the game live. South Korea deserved the win for their ruthlessly efficient defending which nullified the Mexican attack.They defended like Robots on Speed trained by Pulis.

South Korea scored 10 minutes from the end, meaning Mexico needed 2 goals, which they never looked like getting.

Not being cheeky Louis, but have any of these 'researched football bets' come in yet? :)

Louis
11-08-2016, 03:09 AM
Not being cheeky Louis, but have any of these 'researched football bets' come in yet? :)
No :)

elgin eagle
11-08-2016, 07:31 AM
No :)

:D

You're researching too hard mate ;)

I reckon matched betting, combined with the occasional big nailed on mug bet, such as Hull to be relegated, is the way to go personally.

elgin eagle
11-08-2016, 07:08 PM
http://matchedbettingblog.com/football/bet365-in-play-offer-arsenal-v-liverpool-2/#more-85744

Easy free 30 quid for you here Louis :p

Louis
13-08-2016, 03:51 AM
Saturday 13th August 02.00

Womens Olympic Football
Quarter Final
Brazil Women v Australia Women

I think Australia's odds are too long here at over 7.0. They are 4.5 (over 3/1) with Marathon to qualify (a 2 horse race, as there is no draw in that market).

Australia are ranked above Brazil by Fifa (Fifa womens rankings are normally more accurate than their mens version). Australia have beaten Brazil in 2 of their last 4 meetings including the Womens World Cup in Canada last year.

Brazil have been in very good form and are at home here, so perhaps they should be favourites, but not by much. I think the difference in the odds is much too high and worth taking at the moment.

To qualify for semi-final
Australia Women
4.5
Marathon

I'm aiming to watch the game live on Friday night/Saturday morning.
Result:
0-0 after extra time
Brazil won on penalties

This bet lost

I saw most of the game, a good game to watch I thought. Brazil edged it on penalties.

SeanPalace84
13-08-2016, 07:35 AM
Keep these going Louis, good reads. Australia bet looked good on paper.

LLCOOLSTEVE
16-08-2016, 09:15 PM
Anyways, im sorry to say I dont put much research into my football bets but interested to see what people come up with

I have a couple of long term bets for the season, one of which is AFC Wimbeldon to be relegated at 4/1, I believe its value after their promotion, they are a small team in the grand scheme of things in league 1 and I think they shall struggle after their promotion momentum wears off; I also think the fact that 4 go down provides further value.


Bottom after 3 games with 0 points, lets hope they stay there :p

richdeniro
18-08-2016, 11:59 AM
I've gone for China to win over 85.5 medals at 8/13. They won 88 in 2012 and with Russia being banned in many events there is less competition for medals

Went for this too - Not looking too promising.

Far East Eagle
20-08-2016, 10:36 AM
Went for this too - Not looking too promising.

Sadly not :(

Far East Eagle
20-08-2016, 10:38 AM
What weekend punts and tips have you gone for?

Stavros 69
21-08-2016, 06:49 PM
What weekend punts and tips have you gone for?

I tend to stay away from the first 5 games of the season.
Usually loads of transfers, unsettled teams etc, I wait till squads are settled and then start picking.

Louis
21-08-2016, 07:15 PM
I've gone for China to win over 85.5 medals at 8/13. They won 88 in 2012 and with Russia being banned in many events there is less competition for medals
Just confirming, I think China ended on 70, so this lost