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-   -   "Official" F1 Predictions & Gossip 2018 (http://www.cpfc.org/forums/showthread.php?t=273024)

Scrumpy 04-12-2017 03:14 PM

"Official" F1 Predictions & Gossip 2018
 
May as well get this thread started.

Sauber have confirmed their driver line-up and shown off their Alfa-Romeo based livery for 2018.

http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/124...rmed-at-sauber

Mike Douglas 06-12-2017 05:33 PM

Positions after the Abu Dhabi GP, the final race of of 21 for 2018, 25th November 2018

Leaderboard

Pos Name Pts Played Av Pts
1 zaph_01 849 21 40.43
2 Bintang 819 21 39.00
3 Percy Dalton 794 21 37.81
4 davech 782 21 37.24
5 grand aigle 759 21 36.14
5 SwampThing 759 21 36.14
7 Ridcully 749 21 35.67
8 eagles073 727 21 34.62
9 RednBlue 720 21 34.29
10 Scrumpy 711 21 33.86
11 Hibernator 705 21 33.57
12 Newts G 694 20 34.70
13 Richard 690 21 32.86
14 EddieEdwards 687 21 32.71
15 little al 684 20 34.20
16 spunky 675 21 32.14
17 MasterYoda 672 21 32.00
18 mexicaneagle 658 20 32.90
19 TOKYOPAUL 627 19 33.00
20 Mike Douglas 622 21 29.62
MASSIV 614
21 Latvian Eagle 599 21 28.52
22 CT_Palace 581 21 27.67
23 charltonhater 563 19 29.63
24 Bones14 542 17 31.88
25 meee 498 14 35.57
26 Eagle's Nest 196 8 24.50 Less than 10 entries

Mike Douglas 06-12-2017 05:35 PM

The Rules :

Only 3 months to go now so time to dust off the spreadsheet, convene the stewards meetings and decide on the Rules and Regulations for 2017.
If any one would like to suggest any changes feel free, but this thread is not democratic and the power hungry despot in charge will as per F1 make his own mind up.


2017 GP Drivers and Teams :
Blue colour indicates a confirmed 2018 contract
Green indicates a confirmed/current Reserve/Test Driver for the team


Aston Martin Red Bull Racing - Engine TAG Heuer badged Renault
3. Daniel Ricciardo - Red Bull Racing
33. Max Verstappen - Red Bull Racing



McLaren - Engine Renault
14. Fernando Alonso - McLaren Renault
2. Stoffel Vandoorne - McLaren Renault

nn. Lando Norris


Scuderia Ferrari
5. Sebastian Vettel - Scuderia Ferrari
7. Kimi Raikkonen - Scuderia Ferrari

26. Danil Kvyat
36. Antonio Giovinazzi


Mercedes Grand Prix
44. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes Grand Prix
77. Valtteri Bottas - Mercedes Grand Prix



Renault
27. Nico Hulkenberg - Team Renault
55. Carlos Sainz - Team Renault



Williams - Engine Mercedes
18. Lance Stroll - Williams-Mercedes
nn. Sergey Sirotkin - Williams-Mercedes

nn. Robert Kubica

Force India - Engine Mercedes
11. Sergio Perez - Force India F1 Team-Mercedes
31. Esteban Ocon - Force India F1 Team-Mercedes

nn. Nicholas Lafiti


Alfa Romeo Sauber F1 Team - Engine Alfa-Romeo
9. Marcus Ericsson - BMW Sauber-Alfa
16. Charles Leclerc - BMW Sauber-Alfa
36. Antonio Giovinazzi


Scuderia Toro Rosso - Engine Honda
10. Pierre Gasly - Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda
28. Brendon Hartley - Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda



HAAS- Engine Ferrari
8. Roman Grosjean - HAAS
20. Kevin Magnusson - HAAS



2018 Schedule :

1 25th March Australian Grand Prix Melbourne (SKY)
2 08th April Bahrain Grand Prix Sakhir (SKY + Channel 4)
3 15th April Chinese Grand Prix Shanghai International Circuit (SKY)
4 29th April Azerbaijan Grand Prix Baku (SKY + Channel 4)
5 13th May Spanish Grand Prix Circuit de Catalunya, Barcelona (SKY)
6 27th May Monaco Grand Prix Monte-Carlo (SKY + Channel 4)
7 10th June Canadian Grand Prix Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, Montreal (SKY)
8 24th June French Grand Prix Circuit Paul Ricard, Le Castellet, near Marseille (SKY)
9 1st July Austria Grand Prix Red Bull Ring, Spielburg (SKY + Channel 4)
10 8th July British Grand Prix Silverstone (SKY + Channel 4)
11 22nd July German Grand Prix Hockenheimring Baden-Württemberg (SKY)
12 29th July Hungarian Grand Prix Hungaroring (SKY)
13 26th August Belgian Grand Prix Spa-Francorchamps (SKY + Channel 4)
14 2nd September Italian Grand Prix Monza (SKY)
15 16th September Singapore Grand Prix Singapore (SKY + Channel 4)
16 30th September Russian Grand Prix Sochi (SKY)
17 7th October Japanese Grand Prix Suzuka (SKY + Channel 4)
18 21st October United States Grand Prix Austin To be confirmed (SKY + Channel 4)
19 28th October Mexico Grand Prix Mexico City (SKY)
20 11th November Brazilian Grand Prix Interlagos (SKY)
21 25th November Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Yas Island (SKY + Channel 4)

Rules as follows :

First five places to pick

Win 25 pts
2nd 18 pts
3rd 15 pts
4th 12 pts
5th 10 pts

Correctly predicting driver in top 5, but not in correct position 2 pts.

Pole 10 pts
Fastest lap 10 pts

5 Bonus points to be awarded if prediction is made before first practice for the race, times as per BBS clock and actual practice start times.
NOTE - A forecast prior to FP1 can not be changed (even if a late grid penalty occurs). A forecast made after the start of FP1 can be changed with no penalty at any time up to the start of Qualification. A forecast made after the start of Qualification will attract a 10 point penalty.


Therefore, maximum points for a race week are now

(25+18+15+12+10+10+5+5 = 100 Points)

Predictions are welcome by PM, please PM Mike Douglas and I will post them on the thread before the race if this option is used.

Note : Timings are taken as per post or edit times if post is changed.

MasterYoda 07-12-2017 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Douglas (Post 13977606)
Predictions are fixed at qualifying, no changes permitted afterwards although late entries will be accepted with a 10 point deduction for predictions after the start of the qualifying session.

Although I benefitted most from it last season I would enforce this rule strictly as worded. Once you've made your predictions and FP1 or Quali has happened then you shouldn't be allowed to adjust your predictions. Although you've always allowed it it's kinda felt a bit like cheating.

I'd also like to once more propose a couple extra points for being one place out in the top 5. I may have asked for that before ;)

Scrumpy 07-12-2017 08:28 AM

Maybe also introduce a bonus of say 5 points if you correctly predict which driver will make up the most places from their qualifying spot?

EddieEdwards 07-12-2017 09:03 AM

I agree that predictions should be fixed once FP1 has started. No problem with people predicting late and missing out on the 5 point bonus, but if you've predicted before FP1 in order to get the bonus then you should have to stick with that rather than get a second bite.

Mike Douglas 11-12-2017 03:11 PM

In response to the above, and to possibly clarify things the pre start rules at the moment are:
1. If you forecast before FP1 (1st Practice) then you get a bonus of 5 points.
2. If you change that forecast at any time after FP1 then you lose that bonus.
3. If you forecast or change your forecast after the start of qualification then no bonus applies and a penalty of 10 points applies.

It is interesting to note that in the proposed changes to the F1 rules for next season there was also a provision for a "change to the event timetable to increase flexibility". A spokesman said that instead of a prescribed time for the various practice sessions, there will be a window of time in which they can occur. So we will have to define in the regulations whether it is the actual time practice starts or the pre-published time.

I will leave the debate open on changes to our rule until sometime in February but I am minded to agree that if you forecast before FP1 you are stuck with that forecast. I suspect it may mean that there will be a lot of forecasts after FP3 and before Qualification. Does this penalize people going on holiday? Do we still allow under judges discretion the possibility of changing this if a grid penalty occurs during one of the practice sessions?

Scrumpy's idea of a further 5 points for the best improvement in position sounds OK as long as I can find somewhere which does the calculation for me. Questions: When would you have to make the forecast by and would it be changeable. Grid penalties would obviously have quite an effect.

MasterYoda's re-proposed (for the third time?) suggestion of some points for being one place out makes my life difficult so I have always said no. 2 points would mean you scored the same for being wrong as for being correct. Perhaps 5 for correct and 2 for wrong might work, but then that means the early bonus points seem too low.

I think taking a penalty when you shouldn't deserves shooting.

CT_Palace 11-12-2017 03:42 PM

I think your rules and point scoring, as they stand today, are perfectly adequate Mike. The only thing that disrupts things is when one team is streaks better than any other team (as per the seasons before last), then the predictions for the top points are pretty straightforward (e.g. for 2015 and 16 the default for P1 and P2 was Hamilton and Rosberg).
In this case I think we need additional points scoring opportunities. IIRC (even though I wasn't taking part in the predictions comp) I proposed forecasting where the McLarens would come.

Mike Douglas 12-01-2018 03:49 PM

Danil Kvyat has been given the role of Ferrari Development Driver.

Mike Douglas 16-01-2018 02:38 PM

For those of us of a certain age some sad news from the BBC

Dan Gurney, one of the greatest Formula 1 drivers of the 1960s and a towering figure in motorsport, has died aged 86. The American was the first to spray champagne on the podium, and the first to wear a full-face helmet. He also took Porsche's first F1 victory, and was one of the leading members of a golden generation of drivers in the 1960s, including Jim Clark and Jackie Stewart. Gurney was also the second driver to win a grand prix in his own car.

Mike Douglas 16-01-2018 02:41 PM

Final pieces of the driver jigsaw confirmed (BBC)

Robert Kubica has taken a significant step towards his ambition of making a return to Formula 1 with a role as reserve driver at Williams in 2018. The Pole, 33, has not raced in F1 since suffering life-changing injuries in a rally crash seven years ago. Williams have signed Sergey Sirotkin as a race driver to partner Canadian Lance Stroll after deciding the Russian out-performed Kubica in a test last autumn. But Kubica will work on development and take part in some practice sessions.

spunky 01-02-2018 07:36 PM

Start times juggled a bit by liberty media

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...41b3cf20bf.jpg

Vicmo 18-02-2018 04:12 PM

I’m off to pre season testing in Barcelona for the second test to see in person how awful the halo looks. Has anybody been to the Circuit de Catalunya and Barcelona in general and have any tips or things to see while I’m there?

Mike Douglas 19-02-2018 05:04 PM

Hope this worksp. New red Bull for 2018

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43111042

mexicaneagle 19-02-2018 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Douglas (Post 14122173)
Hope this worksp. New red Bull for 2018

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43111042

"special edition livery". I'm looking forward to seeing the new livery for all cars. Sauber's is a bit conservative, imo.

Mike Douglas 21-02-2018 11:31 AM

This should be article and pictures of the Renault and Sauber cars for 2018:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43129563

mexicaneagle 24-02-2018 05:39 PM

Well, I for one love the new McLaren
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43162270

Mike Douglas 16-03-2018 04:17 PM

Rule revision suggestions and decisions.

It is interesting to note that in the proposed changes to the F1 rules for next season there was also a provision for a "change to the event timetable to increase flexibility". A spokesman said that instead of a prescribed time for the various practice sessions, there will be a window of time in which they can occur. So we will have to define in the regulations whether it is the actual time practice starts or the pre-published time.
Decision - The actual start time will be used in all cases.


I will leave the debate open on changes to our rule until sometime in February but I am minded to agree that if you forecast before FP1 you are stuck with that forecast. I suspect it may mean that there will be a lot of forecasts after FP3 and before Qualification. Does this penalize people going on holiday? Do we still allow under judges discretion the possibility of changing this if a grid penalty occurs during one of the practice sessions?
Decision - A forecast prior to FP1 can not be changed (even if a late grid penalty occurs). A forecast made after the start of FP1 can be changed with no penalty at any time up to the start of Qualification. A forecast made after the start of Qualification will attract a 10 point penalty.

Scrumpy's idea of a further 5 points for the best improvement in position sounds OK as long as I can find somewhere which does the calculation for me. Questions: When would you have to make the forecast by and would it be changeable. Grid penalties would obviously have quite an effect.
Decision - No change.

MasterYoda's re-proposed (for the third time?) suggestion of some points for being one place out makes my life difficult so I have always said no. 2 points would mean you scored the same for being wrong as for being correct. Perhaps 5 for correct and 2 for wrong might work, but then that means the early bonus points seem too low.
Decision - No change (for the third time :) )

Bintang 16-03-2018 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Douglas (Post 14166649)
Rule revision suggestions and decisions.



I will leave the debate open on changes to our rule until sometime in February but I am minded to agree that if you forecast before FP1 you are stuck with that forecast. I suspect it may mean that there will be a lot of forecasts after FP3 and before Qualification. Does this penalize people going on holiday? Do we still allow under judges discretion the possibility of changing this if a grid penalty occurs during one of the practice sessions?
Decision - A forecast prior to FP1 can not be changed (even if a late grid penalty occurs). A forecast made after the start of FP1 can be changed with no penalty at any time up to the start of Qualification. A forecast made after the start of Qualification will attract a 10 point penalty.

What happens to predictions made "until further changes"
I usually make my predictions and let them stand for a number of races.

Richard 16-03-2018 05:59 PM

Well, may as well get started - Melbourne:-

1. Hamilton
2. Bottas
3. Verstappen
4. Vettel
5. Ricciardo

PP Hamilton
FL Ricciardo


Thank you, as ever, to Mike for his selfless devotion to a BBS thread I always really enjoy.

Although it would be better if Biggus was back ...


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