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-   -   Brexit - the economic and social impact (http://www.cpfc.org/forums/showthread.php?t=266039)

delboy01 14-07-2016 01:44 PM

An analyst on radio 2 said today that despite the scare stories that government borrowing interest rates would increase as our credit rating would suffer it seems that now we are about to begin divorce proceedings with the EU the Government borrowing rate has dropped from 2% to 0.7%!!!!!!

A historic low.

That is a huge difference when talking about the sums involved.

Very clever of Carney (BOE) straight after brexit to say interest rates may go down, I suggested that it would be delayed as this would leave more wriggle room. It stabilised the markets and now that it has been delayed the market reaction has been neutral. Now if next month they stay the same it will be because 'there is no evidence of a slow down'. So this tactic is win win.

Nth Kent Eagle 14-07-2016 01:45 PM

What is the point in copying and pasting every bit of doom and gloom that you can find? Are people trying to intimidate leave voters into changing their minds? Or are people hoping to talk the country into recession. Perhaps if the middle classes with their nice unionised, public sector and big corporation jobs, pensions and terms and conditions had of been a little bit more aware of the downward pressure on wages, employment conditions and upward pressure on rents being faced by those less fortunate than themselves then we might not be where we are.

delboy01 14-07-2016 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ebyeeckeagle (Post 13108501)
About 35% of usual Labour voters, in an average of most surveys. For what that is worth. But there is a fair point in what you write I should say.

Thank you. The normal response I get is 'your a racist' :mad:

Bankerhater1 14-07-2016 01:50 PM

I've been ignoring this thread as pointless for some time - but I'll say one more thing in response to some of the recent ranting by leavers.

The issues around labour mobility/unit cost/salary are a product of the global capitalist system - See - China exporting labour and capital - South Asian labour to the Gulf - filipino labour to just about everywhere, mexican labour to the USA, etc, etc, etc .....

Leaving the EU will not resolve those issues.

And no, it won't solve all the other issues of capitalism either - including the hijacking of the UK political system by a few very wealthy people.

It is no longer a world where it is possible to pull up the drawbridge and stay at home. Unless you want to live in North Korea.

delboy01 14-07-2016 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle (Post 13108534)
What is the point in copying and pasting every bit of doom and gloom that you can find? Are people trying to intimidate leave voters into changing their minds? Or are people hoping to talk the country into recession. Perhaps if the middle classes with their nice unionised, public sector and big corporation jobs, pensions and terms and conditions had of been a little bit more aware of the downward pressure on wages, employment conditions and upward pressure on rents being faced by those less fortunate than themselves then we might not be where we are.

Spot on.

Re. Rents. My previous house was purchase by an east European couple. It was a 4 bed. Thought it strange as they had no kids. My old Neighbours told me that they were renting out each room (all east European) and there were 6/7 cars/vans parked outside. This means that the outgoings side of EU immigrants balance sheet (in the cases where this happens) is much reduced. Meaning they can accept lower salaries.

Nth Kent Eagle 14-07-2016 01:52 PM

During the depression of 2008 Mrs NKE was working in a care home. Many of her colleagues were in a bad way financially. Their husbands had been laid off from building sites or van driving and the women working in the care home were the sole earners. There were still some vacancies and the women were getting some overtime. They then filled the jobs with some new arrivals from eastern Europe. Now they were great people just trying to earn a living but the local women still lost their overtime. They lost over 1/4 to a 1/3 of their income at the very moment that they could least afford it. Now can you imagine if heavily unionised workers in the public sector or those who work for major corporations lost 1/4 of their pay? There would be uproar but of course people a combination of recession and increased competition for jobs mainly affected the young, low paid and in smaller businesses so attracted less interest from the great and the good. The Brexit vote could so easily have been avoided if there was a little more balance to what happened in recent years.

eagleborn 14-07-2016 01:56 PM

The problem with discussing this issue now is that we can all provide our own anecdotes of immediate change, and whether brexit effects have been good or bad so far.

For example, I have two mates who have worked extremely hard to be offered graduate scheme jobs at large consultancy firms in London. Both of them, since brexit have had those offers taken away. Imagine the feeling of suddenly feeling you'd made it to being back unemployed. These are large consultancies who have probably told close to 100 future joiners that it's no longer happening. Gutting for them.

However, we can all give such anecdotes. The real impact can only be seen in a few years. We can only hope that we aren't all badly affected.

Nth Kent Eagle 14-07-2016 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elgin eagle (Post 13108518)
My wife is a carer of old folk. Where we live, care work and hotel housekeeping work are the only major work that is always available. Locals 'won't get out of bed' for it. The old people like her because she is 'gentler'. When the fruit starts dying on the trees again will you admit that the major social problems in this country are ignorance, xenophobia, racism and laziness?

I think that working in old people's home is a job that is particularly suited to older women. A number of those in my family do this.

catty 14-07-2016 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elgin eagle (Post 13108523)
I wouldn't wait by the phone catty!

Quite! I'm lucky I have someone to do the actual recruiting for me. It really isn't easy.

delboy01 14-07-2016 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bankerhater1 (Post 13108542)
I've been ignoring this thread as pointless for some time - but I'll say one more thing in response to some of the recent ranting by leavers.

The issues around labour mobility/unit cost/salary are a product of the global capitalist system - See - China exporting labour and capital - South Asian labour to the Gulf - filipino labour to just about everywhere, mexican labour to the USA, etc, etc, etc .....

Leaving the EU will not resolve those issues.

And no, it won't solve all the other issues of capitalism either - including the hijacking of the UK political system by a few very wealthy people.

It is no longer a world where it is possible to pull up the drawbridge and stay at home. Unless you want to live in North Korea.

Companies have for many years been moving factories to cheaper places. Our own manufacturing base is pretty much gone. But that does not make it right.

The premise that labour costs should constantly be reduced is a misnomer of epic proportions. The people that work for you buy your product therefore if you sack them they wont have money to buy your product........

The EU plan seems to be to reduce the better off countries standards of living to those of the recent countries to join. Rather than increase the standard of living of those countries.

It seems to be a plan to increase the profit of the large conglomerates.

The EU red tape all seems to favour the bigger companies.

Movement of labour will happen as it always has but leaving the door ajar is the wrong policy. And when the EU was told it was the wrong policy they stamped their foot and said WE WANT. They still are. Control is the right thing to do.

And I've not ranted at all. Simply stated my position. I enjoy discussion which up until now has been sadly missing.

Nth Kent Eagle 14-07-2016 02:02 PM

No doubt we will get a lot of snearing middle class people trashing the low paid locals and telling us how people from everywhere else work harder. The working class locals are the one group in society you still are allowed to get away with demonising.

elgin eagle 14-07-2016 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle (Post 13108553)
I think that working in old people's home is a job that is particularly suited to older women. A number of those in my family do this.

I'll tell her you said this. Do you like one polonium or two in your tea? :)

mik59 14-07-2016 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by delboy01 (Post 13108513)
We have never had higher employment.

Over half the employment increase in the past year has been due to foreign nationals.

Nth Kent Eagle 14-07-2016 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elgin eagle (Post 13108571)
I'll tell her you said this. Do you like one polonium or two in your tea? :)

I prefer Earl Grey. Again, in the old people's homes where those in my family work the young seem to go but move onto other areas, often child care. Women over 40 seem to stay longer. Mrs NKE quite likes the local work, flexible hours, the opportunity these days for overtime and she can fit it in with her first love - babysitting for junior, junior NKE.

elgin eagle 14-07-2016 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by catty (Post 13108556)
Quite! I'm lucky I have someone to do the actual recruiting for me. It really isn't easy.

I bet. Quite sickening the treatment dished out to old people in our country. Meanwhile fat bastards sit on their sofa watching Jeremy kyle and slagging off immigrants. Makes my blood boil. No wonder the country has massive social problems with the level of ignorance towards addressing low paid skills gaps in Britain. Youth unemployment is massive as well.

JDawg 14-07-2016 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by delboy01 (Post 13108513)
Unemployment in the EU

Greece 24%
Spain 20%
Croatia 13.5%
Cyprus 12%
Portugal 12%
Italy 11.5%
France 10%


Only 3 EU countries have lower unemployment than us.

We have never had higher employment.

Predictions are just that. They predicted a hung parliament they predicted remain. Today they predicted a rate cut. (I said not this month) 'Experts' 0 me 1.

There are things that we can do to boast the economy that the EU can't.


Of course there are.

But what? Forget the EU. From where I'm sitting I am seeing companies starting to review spending plans cos they don't have a a clue and have no guidance on what Brexit will mean (other than the act of leaving the EU) because there is none. The settlement and re-boot with the rest of the world is not defined - and this could last for another two years. So there's a bit of cash hoarding going on to provide an buffer (particularly with SMEs) to ride out a recession if there is one. Trouble is, as seen in 08/9, this has a habit of feeding on itself. If we hoard cash and stop spending just in case and liquidity dries up then it's recession time and we move from people not being hired to people losing their jobs.

Trust me, the Bank of England aren't making this stuff up. The uncertainty around Brexit will cause a short term (we hope recession). Hopefully nobody gets bitten in the arse by ignoring the experts, but, ignoring the politics, this is a very real threat

So you say we can do things to boost the economy that the EU can't. Ignore the EU; we're leaving. Describe what these things are to boost the economy because they will be needed?

eaglejez 14-07-2016 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by delboy01 (Post 13108491)
Change the record. The premise that all 17M brexiteers are racists is BS. It now seems that a high percentage labour voters voted out.

My wife has a degree, her company moved, she trained the replacements in the new lab and the overflow 3rd party lab (total of 20 -25 people). 33% east European. She was on the dole for 5 months. The jobs on offer were at entry level money. She has now taken a local job on a 40% lower salary in the same field. 33% of her new company are east European. The supervisor is polish as it makes communication easier!!!

How's that beneficial to the country? We lost my wifes tax, paid her dole money, and now in her new job she pays half as much tax/NI.

There are university leavers not even getting interviews.

How is that sensible?

Employer policy seems to be: Lets get someone that knows the job on half the money instead of someone we have to train!

Its the economics of the insane.

Since brexit my own company has tripled the apprentice intake (I was told last week as I'm to be mentor for my modality). That is what we should be doing training the young.

Yes we need immigration but not to replace those already in jobs because they are cheaper which has been happening.

QED.

you daft racist ;)

Nth Kent Eagle 14-07-2016 02:18 PM

anyway back to the main point. Overall we are not going to be able to reduce immigration much if at all. The population is going to grow anyway so we have to take action to make it more viable. This includes inter-generational fairness (an end to the occupational pension inequalities and tax subsidies) and a switch in public sector spending away from current spending towards investment in particular housing. I don't want to leave the EU but can accept that the forgotten groups have voted against my wishes. So I would be happy with a few tweaks to EU immigration. The ability to deport repeat criminals and beggars, tighten up in EH card abuses, a bit more focus around bogus marriages, a longer period before people got tax credits and some stuff around child benefit for those whose children are still back home. I spend a fair bit of time in one high unemployment area of Spain and it is good that the local Spaniards and Romanians get the chance to come hear and work. I wouldn't want that to change in the vast majority of cases. The situation for those already here and UK citizens in the EU should be resolved quickly. I would like slightly easier access to those from Jamaica but that is a slightly different thing.

eaglejez 14-07-2016 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle (Post 13108534)
What is the point in copying and pasting every bit of doom and gloom that you can find? Are people trying to intimidate leave voters into changing their minds? Or are people hoping to talk the country into recession. Perhaps if the middle classes with their nice unionised, public sector and big corporation jobs, pensions and terms and conditions had of been a little bit more aware of the downward pressure on wages, employment conditions and upward pressure on rents being faced by those less fortunate than themselves then we might not be where we are.

are you new here ?!

mik59 14-07-2016 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mik59 (Post 13108572)
Over half the employment increase in the past year has been due to foreign nationals.

To put this into perspective, if you look at employment rates for nationals only then about 6 EU countries would have higher employment than us and a further 3/4 would be on about the same rate as us, ignoring fractions.


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