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-   -   Brexit - the economic and social impact (http://www.cpfc.org/forums/showthread.php?t=266039)

Martin H 26-06-2016 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AJ's right boot (Post 13071376)
It has nothing to do with EU membership and everything to do with the large amount of money the UK deposits into Frances current account to be there. You're gonna have to trust me on this, I have no desire to talk about my job on public forum but the Le Touquet treaty is kinda my thing.

Rather than challenge your inside knowledge can I ask is that the whole story? Isn't the view of the French people, particularly around Calais and their reaction relevant. Without inside info, I would assume that the same FU attitude would emerge as was threatening when it looked as if Scotland would leave. Even more so between us and the French. I don't know but that pressure will build I am sure maybe the Bucks will win.

The wider but different point here is why did we all assume that we would do Scotland no favours if they got Independence but the EU would be all nicey nicey as we nip off. Errrrrm

Skin Up 26-06-2016 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redandblue (Post 13071388)
The MORI poll showing the age breakdown was a poll of only 4000 people.

The ageist argument is a bit of a red herring anyway, there are more young people than old people in the country. It's just the over 65s turnout was exceptionally high (86%), there was nothing stopping the 18-35 demo from matching that turnout which would have seen remain romp home but they couldn't do it.

Helena2 26-06-2016 07:35 AM

BBC reporting that HSBC considering moving some staff...

GorBlimey 26-06-2016 07:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sw16girl (Post 13071400)
While I am pursuaded by AJ's response yours is simply wrong - prior to the agreement around 80k people got to the UK to claim asylum. That reduced to 30k after the agreement.

Getting rid of the agreement would mean going back to the previous situation which patently meant more people in the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...y-brexit-paris

pots1970 26-06-2016 07:43 AM

Sw16, with regards to your 30,000 figure, I am more interested in the completely unknown figure that have got in and disappeared, most of the hundreds of immigrants I found had no intention of seeking asylum and I know this because I asked them, to be fair they all just wanted to work.

AJ's right boot 26-06-2016 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin H (Post 13071404)
Rather than challenge your inside knowledge can I ask is that the whole story? Isn't the view of the French people, particularly around Calais and their reaction relevant. Without inside info, I would assume that the same FU attitude would emerge as was threatening when it looked as if Scotland would leave. Even more so between us and the French. I don't know but that pressure will build I am sure maybe the Bucks will win.

The wider but different point here is why did we all assume that we would do Scotland no favours if they got Independence but the EU would be all nicey nicey as we nip off. Errrrrm

The loudest opposition to the Juxtaposed controls has always been the Mayor of Calais and with good reason really. The jux controls have been extremely detrimental to her town, she shouts very loudly but has very little influence in reality. There is no appetite to remove Border Force because our contributions out weigh what ever negative effective they have on the area. Naturally a change of French government could change all that.

Nork1 26-06-2016 08:45 AM

One positive to come out of this is watching the Mail Online comments sections after post-Brexit articles going in to meltdown now the reality of what they've done is sinking in.

sw16girl 26-06-2016 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pots1970 (Post 13071423)
Sw16, with regards to your 30,000 figure, I am more interested in the completely unknown figure that have got in and disappeared, most of the hundreds of immigrants I found had no intention of seeking asylum and I know this because I asked them, to be fair they all just wanted to work.

Anyone getting in illegally will still be doing that regardless of where the border is. They will be unaffected by the vote one way or the other. As they are not here legally they would not be entitled to any benefits so of course they will want to work as the vast majority of migrants do.

DHeagle 26-06-2016 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin H (Post 13071404)
The wider but different point here is why did we all assume that we would do Scotland no favours if they got Independence but the EU would be all nicey nicey as we nip off. Errrrrm

Scotland expecting us, once independent from us, to pay for their education and welfare systems that they cannot fund themselves, and us negotiating a trade agreement with a market that we import 10 times as much from as we export into it are two totally different things. The EU needs our business more than we need Scotland is what I'm saying.

If Juncker wants to stick two fingers up and make life hard for us then so be it, but is an establishment led by that sort of person something you want to be a part of?

GorBlimey 26-06-2016 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nork1 (Post 13071527)
One positive to come out of this is watching the Mail Online comments sections after post-Brexit articles going in to meltdown now the reality of what they've done is sinking in.

The Guardian is funnier.

Lefty indignation that their sanctimonious will did not prevail!

Martin H 26-06-2016 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DHeagle (Post 13071544)
Scotland expecting us, once independent from us, to pay for their education and welfare systems that they cannot fund themselves, and us negotiating a trade agreement with a market that we import 10 times as much from as we export into it are two totally different things. The EU needs our business more than we need Scotland is what I'm saying.

If Juncker wants to stick two fingers up and make life hard for us then so be it, but is an establishment led by that sort of person something you want to be a part of?

But That was my point really, that this was the emerging response if Scotland did in fact leave. I.e. It IS the natural reaction and I would need to leave the UK if I follow your thought, I don't suggest that they won't trade with us at all, I am saying it is a divorce settlement between 2 parties that have rowed for years, not some sort of benevolent leaving present.

I am now intrigued by Sturgeon's play to step into the UK's shoes by positioning to stay rather than join after Independence. If she pulls that off then we should all be moving to Scotland :)

DHeagle 26-06-2016 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin H (Post 13071557)
But That was my point really, that this was the emerging response if Scotland did in fact leave. I.e. It IS the natural reaction and I would need to leave the UK if I follow your thought, I don't suggest that they won't trade with us at all, I am saying it is a divorce settlement between 2 parties that have rowed for years, not some sort of benevolent leaving present.

I am now intrigued by Sturgeon's play to step into the UK's shoes by positioning to stay rather than join after Independence. If she pulls that off then we should all be moving to Scotland :)

Oh I get that of course, there have been tensions for a long time and this clearly isn't going to make any of that go away. What I mean is that we have far more bargaining power with Europe than Scotland does with us, on the basis of what each contributes to its respective union.

I shan't be moving to Scotland, that woman is unbearable! :D

cdm61 26-06-2016 10:17 AM

The country is in chaos - split down the middle - Tories and Labour at each others throats...wait until the markets open tomorrow and price in chaos and a vengeful EU...more banks getting ready to move - shares plunging and pensions with them

SE25 exile 26-06-2016 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdm61 (Post 13071665)
The country is in chaos - split down the middle - Tories and Labour at each others throats...wait until the markets open tomorrow and price in chaos and a vengeful EU...more banks getting ready to move - shares plunging and pensions with them

I have to agree there is now uncertainty, and that uncertainty is not going to improve in the coming days.

maestro 26-06-2016 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdm61 (Post 13071665)
The country is in chaos - split down the middle - Tories and Labour at each others throats...wait until the markets open tomorrow and price in chaos and a vengeful EU...more banks getting ready to move - shares plunging and pensions with them

Everyone needs to calm the **** down

Its not a time imo to make rash decisions, let 3 months pass and then reassess

ovingdean agent 26-06-2016 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nork1 (Post 13071527)
One positive to come out of this is watching the Mail Online comments sections after post-Brexit articles going in to meltdown now the reality of what they've done is sinking in.

Mail on Sunday was for REMAIN and is doing a good impression of the Guardian today.

eagleborn 26-06-2016 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maestro (Post 13071738)
Everyone needs to calm the **** down

Its not a time imo to make rash decisions, let 3 months pass and then reassess

Why are you so much more rational and patient on here than in the Palace match day sections?!

Martin H 26-06-2016 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DHeagle (Post 13071571)
Oh I get that of course, there have been tensions for a long time and this clearly isn't going to make any of that go away. What I mean is that we have far more bargaining power with Europe than Scotland does with us, on the basis of what each contributes to its respective union.

I shan't be moving to Scotland, that woman is unbearable! :D

:D - started to annoy me a little this morning. Trying to position herself as looking to protect the Scottish people, not seek Independence. If that was the case wouldn't the rhetoric be aimed at the UK Government seeking to influence how Scotland would be protected during negotiations and ensuring she had a seat and say at the table rather than seeking to pinch the UK's chair and gain Independence. She is a canny player who has consistently positioned herself as the voice of reason and maturity but as things get increasingly real for her she is forced to expose that she is after all a politician. There are so many worse though.

the drexciyan 26-06-2016 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maestro (Post 13071738)
Everyone needs to calm the **** down

Its not a time imo to make rash decisions, let 3 months pass and then reassess

Reassess?

You're not backtracking by any chance?

This thing has a momentum beyond just the tories or even just the UK now.

eaglejez 26-06-2016 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skin Up (Post 13071407)
The ageist argument is a bit of a red herring anyway, there are more young people than old people in the country. It's just the over 65s turnout was exceptionally high (86%), there was nothing stopping the 18-35 demo from matching that turnout which would have seen remain romp home but they couldn't do it.

trying to find real data on under 30 turnout. Things I've seen suggested only 25% of all 18-24 year olds and 40% of those registered voted but can't get firmer source. Would be a bit of a shocker if true !


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