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-   -   The rise and fall of the UK property market (http://www.cpfc.org/forums/showthread.php?t=151198)

richdeniro 02-04-2007 11:22 AM

The rise and fall of the UK property market
 
I realise that they have been saying this for yonks now but a couple of articles have made me wonder if this time it might actually happen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...2/nhomes02.xml

Quote:

The housing market is heading for a fall next year, experts have warned, after it emerged that property is at its most overvalued level in more than 15 years.

Soaring prices are putting properties out of reach for many, with unaffordability reaching the worst level since the end of the last major crash, according to figures produced for The Daily Telegraph.

The warning coincides with news that the average mortgage rate has reached seven per cent, with millions of households paying well above the Bank of England's 5.25 per cent.

With the Bank expected to increase borrowing costs for the fourth time in a year - possibly as soon as Thursday - economists have sounded the alarm over the market's strength. This comes after the revelation that disposable incomes rose at the slowest rate in 25 years in 2006.

Gordon Brown is likely to be blamed for much of the problem, since high taxes are one of the key reasons many households are struggling to pay mortgage bills.
and this one I read a couple of weeks ago about the Bank of England deliberately fueling rising house prices and the consumer boom by slashing interest rates. Surely it eventually has to correct itself?...

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/mailFr...n_page_id=1770

http://news.independent.co.uk/busine...cle2377729.ece

Quote:

Bank of England chiefs deliberately fuelled a consumer boom they knew would massively boost house prices and personal debt to avert a recession, a former governor said today.

Lord George said they "did not have much of a choice" as they battled to use interest rates to prevent the UK being dragged into a worldwide economic slump.

And he said his legacy to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - which decides the rate - was to "sort out" the problems that policy had caused.

Lord George - who headed the Bank for a decade from 1993 - revealed that he knew the approach was not sustainable as he gave evidence to a committee of MPs.

"In the environment of global economic weakness at the beginning of this decade ... external demand was declining and related to that business investment was declining.

"We only had two alternative ways of sustaining demand and keeping the economy moving forward: One was public spending and the other was consumption.

"Now of course it's true that taxation and public spending may influence the economic climate, may influence consumer spending.

"But we knew that we were having to stimulate consumer spending; we knew we had pushed it up to levels which couldn't possibly be sustained into the medium and long term.

"But for the time being, if we had not done that the UK economy would have gone into recession just as has the United States.

"That pushed up house prices, it increased household debt ... my legacy to the MPC if you like has been 'sort that out'."

Shoreditch CPFC 02-04-2007 11:28 AM

indeed. I'm selling my last buy to let and will be in no hurry to buy again unless we see a decent correction.

RickyB 02-04-2007 11:32 AM

Great, we are completing next week :bash:

Dave 02-04-2007 11:38 AM

Quote:

Great, we are completing next week
If you are completing next week why do you care if there is a drop in 2008?

Personally I can't see any massive drops but people 'wishing' for a crash are dicks

Justin 02-04-2007 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by RickyB
Great, we are completing next week :bash:
Why does it matter - you are buying to live in I assume.

The value is only on paper and is irrelevant - unless you are forced to sell and rent.

Say prices fell 20% and you wanted to move to a bigger place. The saving on the bigger place would be greater than the fall in the current one.

ponypunter 02-04-2007 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by RickyB
Great, we are completing next week :bash:
It doesn't matter if you plan on living there for a while. Don't stress. :p

Mat ov CPFC 02-04-2007 11:46 AM

No reasons for any real crash, especially in the South East of England.

There may be a correction in terms of the hype that drives prices up but all that might happen is that prices stay roughly the same as now rather than increasing in value over the next couple of years.

There is still more demand than supply and once all those Poles start coming into the market ( been here a couple of years, got themselves established ) then it will start going up again.

Shoreditch CPFC 02-04-2007 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dave
If you are completing next week why do you care if there is a drop in 2008?

Personally I can't see any massive drops but people 'wishing' for a crash are dicks

people referring to others as dicks without explaining themselves are dicks.

montstar 02-04-2007 11:53 AM

as far as i can tell there are more people looking for houses than there are for sale so i really dont see how this can happen.

possibly there will be an issue as more and more people have done the buy to let thing so there will be a crash in prices to let

but that is just my no doubt misguided opinion, and there are a lot of people on here that will know a lot more than me!

Santos-er 02-04-2007 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by ponypunter
It doesn't matter if you plan on living there for a while. Don't stress. :p
Does if you have a huge mortgage and interest rates go up 5%.

Dave 02-04-2007 11:58 AM

Quote:

people referring to others as dicks without explaining themselves are dicks.
How much more explanation do you need?

Wanting a crash means that one is hoping to take some type of advantage from other peoples misery.

Not nice.

Santos-er 02-04-2007 12:02 PM

It also means lots of people who have been Buying to Let will get stung. Since they're part of the reason house prices are so high I have no sympathy.

Mat ov CPFC 02-04-2007 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Santos-er
It also means lots of people who have been Buying to Let will get stung. Since they\'re part of the reason house prices are so high I have no sympathy.

But there is not going to be a crash. Its as simple as that. London and the South East are still crying out for people to come and work here and thus demand for housing will remain high.

SIKO 02-04-2007 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dave
How much more explanation do you need?

Wanting a crash means that one is hoping to take some type of advantage from other peoples misery.

Not nice. [/B]
Totally agree with that. I think one of the main reasons people round here hope there is a crash is so that people will lose their second homes. These are the same people who in the next breath moan about people holidaying abroad instead of the UK

Shoreditch CPFC 02-04-2007 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dave
How much more explanation do you need?

Wanting a crash means that one is hoping to take some type of advantage from other peoples misery.

Not nice.

right, so if I am bearish on property prices I should buy now anyway ? I don't think those 1st time buyers who can't get on the ladder yet would be miserable if prices fell anyway, quite the reverse. Possibly those that have seen the value of their homes double might have to make do with a rise of only 75%.

Santos-er 02-04-2007 12:08 PM

And how can those people afford 200,000 for a flat? Eventually something will give. If interest rates do go up, people won't be able to afford a mortgage of over 100k.

Vince Hilarious 02-04-2007 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dave
How much more explanation do you need?

Wanting a crash means that one is hoping to take some type of advantage from other peoples misery.

Not nice.

Does that mean all football supporters are dicks?

I would like to see a small slump in the market. I am considering selling my house whilst Im abroad and it would be nice to buy an extra couple of bedrooms when I return.

Dave 02-04-2007 12:10 PM

Quote:

right, so if I am bearish on property prices I should buy now anyway
I'm not suggesting you do anything.

Good luck selling your 'last buy to let'.

Vince Hilarious 02-04-2007 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Shoreditch CPFC
right, so if I am bearish on property prices I should buy now anyway ? I don't think those 1st time buyers who can't get on the ladder yet would be miserable if prices fell anyway, quite the reverse. Possibly those that have seen the value of their homes double might have to make do with a rise of only 75%.
Dont get too panicky. I survived the house market crash in 1990. The value of my house halved and mortgage rate went to 15%. It was tough but you will survive. The house went up 3 fold in 15 years.

richdeniro 02-04-2007 12:13 PM

I don't want the market to crash - just make it a bit easier for people earning an average wage to get on the ladder. I mean 200k for a 1 bedroom flat is absolutely ridiculous.

My parents own their home and I wouldn't want to see their retirement go up in smoke because of a crash.


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