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General Palace Discussion General Palace talk - please keep transfer talk in the transfer forum.

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  #1  
Old 27-11-2017, 02:21 PM
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Scatter Graphs of the 17/18 season so far

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A fairly interesting article displaying a variety of charts indicating stats such as shooting and defending efficiency. (I’m on my phone, so I hope the link works.)

What strikes me most about Palace is just how far away we are from expectation in terms of our goals scored. Those records we set at the beginning of the season do seem to be almost astronomially rare, although not helped by a dismal transfer window. Will we see a return to the norm as the season goes on? The stats suggest so, even if the table ranks us last right now.

As someone who’s played poker professionally, I have a reasonable understanding of variance. In poker, you can do all the right things and still lose if some unlikely outcome occurs, but over a large sample, you will win. Recent performances and stats suggest we will improve. In fact, compared to most teams around us, we’re looking better in some of these stats.

Looking at some other teams, Burnley looks like they have ran well over their sample of games so far, although I’m not predicting a Palace 15/16 season of two halves, I do think they will fall away somewhat.

Oh and City really are just amazingly good right now.
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Old 27-11-2017, 02:39 PM
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Does look positive, doesn't it? And I definitely think we're on the up.

However, vis a vis your analogy with poker, there aren't a large number of samples (38) in a Premier League season. So being unlucky over the whole season might not be that rare.
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Old 27-11-2017, 02:45 PM
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be interesting to see the same graphs with the first 7 games removed. . . especially in tandem with To view the link you have to Register or Login
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Old 27-11-2017, 02:49 PM
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Basically, if we had a better striker and a better keeper in our squad we'd be mid table. Who knew?
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Old 27-11-2017, 03:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brod View Post
Does look positive, doesn't it? And I definitely think we're on the up.

However, vis a vis your analogy with poker, there aren't a large number of samples (38) in a Premier League season. So being unlucky over the whole season might not be that rare.
Yeah, 38 games isn’t a large sample all things considered. You do get cases of extreme variance. For example our 2015 calendar points total (62?) and then what followed in 2016.

I guess we’d all like thing a little more “average” rather than the rather polarising form we’ve endured lately. To relate to poker again, the less your edge is vs your opponents, the more variance will play a factor and the more streaky your results will be.
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Old 27-11-2017, 03:13 PM
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You have have to calculate the outs of Patrick Van Aanholt heading the ball to a Bristol City players, if it is less than the pot odds of expected value of goals then its a good call to leave Schlupp on the bench.

As much as I love Poker and Football analogies, varience is based on maths and football isnt maths.
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Old 27-11-2017, 03:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MFBias View Post

As much as I love Poker and Football analogies, varience is based on maths and football isnt maths.
I think you should google "Matthew Benham , Smartodds" before you come out with another one of your limited statements. He,and a certain Tony Bloom, may disagree with you.

Last edited by FMH57; 27-11-2017 at 03:33 PM.
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Old 27-11-2017, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by FMH57 View Post
I think you should google "Matthew Benham , Smartodds" before you come out with another one of your limited statements. He,and a certain Tony Bloom, may disagree with you.
Sure you can use number/maths to bet and make money from football, but that doesnt mean there is a formula or equations for a team/players performing or obtaining a certain play or event only approximations. With Poker the odds are actual mathematical odds based on limited eventualities, you couldnt apply the same to Van Aanholt's back pass or Speroni's ball to Dann, these events arent defined by numbers. Im sure someone tries to make formulas to make money from it but that doesnt change it.
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Old 27-11-2017, 05:47 PM
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Very interesting reading. Wastefulness seems to be the issue. Hopefully that corrects itself in the coming weeks.
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Old 27-11-2017, 05:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmemour View Post
Basically, if we had a better striker and a better keeper in our squad we'd be mid table. Who knew?

We all did. Hopefully SP corrects this in the window and let’s Roy fix this. We are okay with Defence and Midfield. Would like another winger as well. Knowing us we will probably go and buy 3 keepers and 3 strikers.
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Old 27-11-2017, 06:40 PM
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Fine by me
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Old 28-11-2017, 12:29 AM
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From the looks of it, we are a boring, mediocre mid-table club. Now we just need to ******* get there!
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