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  #6561  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:13 PM
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Based in the fixtures I had us, Sunderland and Middlesbrough to go down on the prediction game. Our run in is horrendous putting huge pressure on 3 games.
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  #6562  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:15 PM
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Hull 6/4 so 1.5 for every bet against Wham. Lump on if it is such a formality for the mighty Hull.

They may win. I just simply don't get this certainty about them.
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  #6563  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by ebyeeckeagle View Post
Hull 6/4 so 1.5 for every bet against Wham. Lump on if it is such a formality for the mighty Hull.

They may win. I just simply don't get this certainty about them.
Nothing is certain. I would just think they are favourites. It's a must win for them, they are good at home under Silva and West Ham are shit at the moment, plus they loads of injuries to contend with.
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  #6564  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Thefunkymonk View Post
Because I don't. Antonio should be back to be fair but regardless.. I dont think they will. Watford are bang average but hull are poor.. I think Watford have enough to get a result there.

Dunno what people all of a sudden think hull are world beaters. They are organised under he new bloke but lack quality. I don't see them getting more than 9 points
Hope you're right.

I just think they are being under estimated. Not saying they are world beaters. But they look decent under Silva. Just hope West Ham get a draw at least.
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  #6565  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:23 PM
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Nothing is certain. I would just think they are favourites. It's a must win for them, they are good at home under Silva and West Ham are shit at the moment, plus they loads of injuries to contend with.
They may be favourites(the bookies have them so). But nailed on? Really?
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  #6566  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:25 PM
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Originally Posted by ebyeeckeagle View Post
They may be favourites(the bookies have them so). But nailed on? Really?
I think they are favourites. Definitely. Nothing is certain though. Just got a bad feeling they are going to push us till the end.
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  #6567  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:26 PM
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West Ham have had a bad run of results, but they've been scoring goals in most matches. I can't see them losing to Hull based on the performance against a resurgent Leicester. They were unlucky to lose that game.
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  #6568  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:30 PM
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West Ham have had a bad run of results, but they've been scoring goals in most matches. I can't see them losing to Hull based on the performance against a resurgent Leicester. They were unlucky to lose that game.
I'd more base it on their defeat to Bournemouth.
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  #6569  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:30 PM
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We can speculate endlessly about what individual results might happen but these things are often decided on trends.

Let's say 35 points equals safety. ( it won't be much more ) The trend is that Hull need to go from around 0.85 points per game over 29 games to around 1.3 points in the remaining nine. A fifty percent improvement. Would we be encouraged by the idea of having to accomplish that if we were in their shoes? I don't remember feeling that way in spring of 1998 under similar conditions.

A second trend is that our last six game form is that of an upper mid-table club. No one else around us can say that.

It is still possible for us to go down but also consider the following;

We still have more than enough winnable games at home to secure our status ourselves, are not reliant on other results and Hull, Swansea and Bournemouth must take points of each other.

It would take a serious collapse against our recent form or at least a poor run followed by defeat in particular in the Hull game and for them to massively increase their points average in the remaining games for us to be overhauled. Just beating Hull, for example, makes it extremely hard for them to get ahead unless an unrealistic series of results go both for them and against us.

With the lead we have and the average safety line we can expect, there's every chance that seven points anywhere across the last ten games will be enough for us, unless our GD takes a real hit.

We have revamped the left side and the spine of the team. Only the AM position is still as poor as it has been since promotion and we've survived four seasons without doing anything about that, after all.

All in all, we have a long way to go but every reason to feel a degree of confidence unimaginable just a month ago.
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  #6570  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:32 PM
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Good post Southgate. Reassuring.

Oldham still haunts me though.
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  #6571  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:32 PM
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Hope you're right.

I just think they are being under estimated. Not saying they are world beaters. But they look decent under Silva. Just hope West Ham get a draw at least.
The only teams under estimated on here are Sunderland and Boro. They seem to be the ones written off, not sure about Boro myself.

Personally all the teams down there are moderate at best. I happen to think we probably are the better team, which even outs our run in a bit maybe.

If anything, Hull and Swansea are over estimated on here. They may well both be safe, I don't know.
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  #6572  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:34 PM
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  #6573  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:36 PM
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IMve got us staying up on 37 points, in 15th, Hull in 16th on 36, Swansea in 17th on 36, Watford going down in 18th on 35points, Boro in 19th on 29poitns & Sunderland bottom on 28 points.
I think I was pretty fair. Watford are in trouble that much is for sure, I only got us getting one point from the games against top 6, I put is down for a draw against Liverpool, but we could draw with any of them. I had us to beat Burnley & Hull & get a point at Saints & at home to Leicester. Doesn't seem too un-achievable. No room for error mind.
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  #6574  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SOUTHGATE EAGLE View Post
We can speculate endlessly about what individual results might happen but these things are often decided on trends.

Let's say 35 points equals safety. ( it won't be much more ) The trend is that Hull need to go from around 0.85 points per game over 29 games to around 1.3 points in the remaining nine. A fifty percent improvement. Would we be encouraged by the idea of having to accomplish that if we were in their shoes? I don't remember feeling that way in spring of 1998 under similar conditions.

A second trend is that our last six game form is that of an upper mid-table club. No one else around us can say that.

It is still possible for us to go down but also consider the following;

We still have more than enough winnable games at home to secure our status ourselves, are not reliant on other results and Hull, Swansea and Bournemouth must take points of each other.

It would take a serious collapse against our recent form or at least a poor run followed by defeat in particular in the Hull game and for them to massively increase their points average in the remaining games for us to be overhauled. Just beating Hull, for example, makes it extremely hard for them to get ahead unless an unrealistic series of results go both for them and against us.

With the lead we have and the average safety line we can expect, there's every chance that seven points anywhere across the last ten games will be enough for us, unless our GD takes a real hit.

We have revamped the left side and the spine of the team. Only the AM position is still as poor as it has been since promotion and we've survived four seasons without doing anything about that, after all.

All in all, we have a long way to go but every reason to feel a degree of confidence unimaginable just a month ago.


Good post.

Its in our hands. I think we have at least 3 wins in us.. that'll be enough
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  #6575  
Old 20-03-2017, 10:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr Palace View Post
Good post Southgate. Reassuring.

Oldham still haunts me though.
What haunts me is the idea of a Charlton 2004 match at Old Trafford needing a result with C*ntenberk licking his lips and sharpening his knife.

But the reality now is that for that nightmare scenario to become possible, we need to go from a blossoming and strengthened team to one that collapses and for someone like Hull to improve drastically. It doesn't take much from here for us to stay up unless Hull go on the run to end all runs. Southampton and Liverpool are massive chances for us to take some real pressure off the Hull game, IMHO.
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  #6576  
Old 20-03-2017, 11:25 PM
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Hull are on course to concede over 70 goals having already conceded 58.

A team with that bad a defence is always going to struggle and that is what they have done and will continue to do.

They are not playing as well as some think and certainly not well enough to finish higher than Palace who are now looking away from the bottom and at the teams a few points ahead of them like Leicester,Watford and Burnley.
If West ham continue to lose as many are predicting then Palace who sit 5 points behind them with a game in hand could overtake them.

When was the last time that a team conceded 70+ goals and stayed up.

This Hull staying up at Palace's expense is quite ridiculous and so is the notion that Palace are going to not get something from their 6 matches against the top 6 when we will be fighting for every point available with so much at stake.

As the HF banner said "The Hunt Is On" and more and more teams are now in our sights.

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  #6577  
Old 21-03-2017, 01:02 AM
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I just did the predictor and further proof of just how massive the win against Watford was, I have us finishing 17th on 38 points only ahead of Watford in 18th on Goal Difference. We have not drawn many recently and I have that to change in our last 10 games with draws against Southampton, Arsenal, Tottenham & Hull. I gave us wins against Leicester and Burnley.

My predicted bottom half.

11. West Ham 43pts
12. Bournemouth 42pts
13. Leicester 42pts
14. Swansea 41pts
15. Burnley 40pts
16. Hull 39pts
17. C Palace 38pts
18. Watford 38pts
19. Middlesboro 33pts
20. Sunderland 26pts
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  #6578  
Old 21-03-2017, 01:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SOUTHGATE EAGLE View Post
We can speculate endlessly about what individual results might happen but these things are often decided on trends.

Let's say 35 points equals safety. ( it won't be much more ) The trend is that Hull need to go from around 0.85 points per game over 29 games to around 1.3 points in the remaining nine. A fifty percent improvement. Would we be encouraged by the idea of having to accomplish that if we were in their shoes? I don't remember feeling that way in spring of 1998 under similar conditions.

A second trend is that our last six game form is that of an upper mid-table club. No one else around us can say that.

It is still possible for us to go down but also consider the following;

We still have more than enough winnable games at home to secure our status ourselves, are not reliant on other results and Hull, Swansea and Bournemouth must take points of each other.

It would take a serious collapse against our recent form or at least a poor run followed by defeat in particular in the Hull game and for them to massively increase their points average in the remaining games for us to be overhauled. Just beating Hull, for example, makes it extremely hard for them to get ahead unless an unrealistic series of results go both for them and against us.

With the lead we have and the average safety line we can expect, there's every chance that seven points anywhere across the last ten games will be enough for us, unless our GD takes a real hit.

We have revamped the left side and the spine of the team. Only the AM position is still as poor as it has been since promotion and we've survived four seasons without doing anything about that, after all.

All in all, we have a long way to go but every reason to feel a degree of confidence unimaginable just a month ago.
I am not sure I agree with some of the logic here re trends. Over a large number of games things do tend to average out but there are two major factors challenging it for us. There is the specific of 6 of our last 10 games all being against top 6 teams. That is a distortion of the fixture list that has to have an impact on those trends you are relying upon. Also we only have 10 games left and as those games tick by the distortion of an odd result or goal even has a much bigger impact to the point that it's not as reliable. The 2 thoughts together undermine your logic I reckon.

The trends you are relying upon have to be taken carefully at the best of times and maybe a better way to say it is that 'Haven't we just won 3 out of 6?' So the trend is winning every other game. If anyone really thinks that we will get 5 more wins and 15 points then they are a lot more optimistic than me I really do hope that we do mind.

I do like the positive posts on here though but I think we are going to need our luck to hold, as well as avoiding injuries and red cards. We do need a couple of the other teams to implode sooner than later to take off some of the pressure.

Pretty sure BFS and his coaches will keep us focused until the last kick and that will be key.
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Old 21-03-2017, 01:31 AM
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If all you lot could predict matches you would be making tons of cash on football accumulators...
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Old 21-03-2017, 01:38 AM
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Funny how some fans rate Hull as finishing higher than Palace when Hull are 1/2 on to be relegated along with Boro and Sunderland.
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