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  #301  
Old 12-04-2018, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by JackTheBiscuit View Post
I'm confused. I understand about Stoke and Southampton but surely Huddersfield - who have a one point advantage on us - have just as good a record as we have in terms of taking points like they have never before this season? They have a better home record than us and have three remaining fixtures at home that are winnable - Watford who have nothing to play for, Everton who are terrible away and Arsenal who may well be resting players ahead of a Europa League final.
It is down to their rating, which is the worst of all 20 clubs in the Premier League. We give them a "promoted club boost" in the prediction but they are still poor in terms of actual quality. They have overperformed their level to do what they have.

I have explained above that "having nothing to play for" is not that big a factor in England except when teams select much weaker line-ups in the last 2 matches. As for Arsenal resting players for the Europa League final, they have to get there first. Everton being terrible away isn't necessarily the most predictive factor.
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  #302  
Old 12-04-2018, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Worksop Palace View Post
I think that might be his point.

If so, I agree. It shows up how misleading this sort of analysis can be.

In fact, its a load of old tosh sums it up. Its football. Anything can (and does) happen. Look at the champions league games
The problem is that some people see a 51% chance of something happening as a 100% chance of that thing happening. Then when it doesn't happen, go nuts about how statistics lie. (See thread title)
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  #303  
Old 12-04-2018, 10:03 AM
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Simon, this thread has been very interesting and thanks for posting. I just wondered how Leicester looked before their Championship winning season, during and afterwards. Also I wondered if their performance highlighted any new factors for future analysis. I suspect you could do an interesting documentary on that alone
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  #304  
Old 12-04-2018, 10:19 AM
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Simon, this thread has been very interesting and thanks for posting. I just wondered how Leicester looked before their Championship winning season, during and afterwards. Also I wondered if their performance highlighted any new factors for future analysis. I suspect you could do an interesting documentary on that alone
Ha, excellent question. Clearly Leicester's title win was not something which anyone saw coming (and anyone claiming so after the fact needs to show me that they were saying it before the season started - not happened yet).

There was some evidence that Leicester were improving and we, at least, didn't have them going down in our pre-season prediction. However, the same could be said of a number of clubs - Palace were a top half team in the second half of the 2014/2015 season for example.

In terms of the xG type methodologies during that season, Leicester (perhaps surprisingly to many) DID perform like a top-4 team and on that basis, deserved to be in the Champions League places at the end of the season. This would have been a huge story in itself of course. So Leicester were actually a quality side in 2015/2016.

Where Leicester got lucky/were doing something which models can't pick up or whatever was at the back. They conceded 30% fewer goals than the chances they gave up suggested they should have. During that period I watched a number of their matches (one against Newcastle particularly sticks in the mind) in which they were totally outplayed but didn't concede and nicked a goal against the run of play.

So, they probably had some luck that season to finish top but they were a quality side in terms of the chances they created in particular.

Last season, they were no longer able to create as many opportunities as they had a season earlier so maybe they found a way of playing which worked for a while but was then combatted more successfully by their opponents. Maybe Kante was very important to them? Maybe the Champions League run (quarter-finals against all expectations remember) left them with not enough for the league itself. The big change in last season's Premier League for them though was defensively - little change in the number of goals expected to concede but now they were conceding more than that. So, last season they created fewer opportunities to score than in 2015/2016, resulting in much fewer goals and their defence conceded more than expected.

This season their attack is very similar to last season but the defence is much much better than in any previous Premier League season. Again, they are a quality side but one which is not good enough to challenge the top-6. They are in a fair position for their quality this season.
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  #305  
Old 12-04-2018, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by SimonGleave View Post
It is down to their rating, which is the worst of all 20 clubs in the Premier League. We give them a "promoted club boost" in the prediction but they are still poor in terms of actual quality. They have overperformed their level to do what they have.

I have explained above that "having nothing to play for" is not that big a factor in England except when teams select much weaker line-ups in the last 2 matches. As for Arsenal resting players for the Europa League final, they have to get there first. Everton being terrible away isn't necessarily the most predictive factor.
Ok now I'm really confused. Everton are "bottom 3" in terms of their away record - in fact until their recent win at Stoke - they were bottom 2. Surely that is a reasonable predictive factor.

As it happens I think the overall judgement about Huddersfield is right - they look like a team that has run out of steam like Blackpool did a few years ago. When we played them I wasn't at any point worried in the game other than our own ability to self-destruct.
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  #306  
Old 12-04-2018, 11:12 AM
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Interesting thread, which I'm only just reading. Cheers for the analysis and explanations Simon / Shaggy.
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  #307  
Old 12-04-2018, 11:14 AM
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Ok now I'm really confused. Everton are "bottom 3" in terms of their away record - in fact until their recent win at Stoke - they were bottom 2. Surely that is a reasonable predictive factor.

As it happens I think the overall judgement about Huddersfield is right - they look like a team that has run out of steam like Blackpool did a few years ago. When we played them I wasn't at any point worried in the game other than our own ability to self-destruct.
You are making the mistake of building a judgement based on a small number of matches (only away, only this season). According to our Euro Club Index ranking, Everton are the 8th best team in the Premier League. That is a stronger, more robust idea of their quality than their away record unless there is a genuine reason why they are so bad away from home.

Everton's away record is also skewed by the fact that they have played all of the top-13 away already. You know that Everton have only lost once away against the teams ranked from 13-20?
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  #308  
Old 12-04-2018, 12:11 PM
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Really interesting thread. Thanks for starting it James and thanks to Simon for the work and the courteous way he has responded to all comments, including the boorish ones.
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  #309  
Old 12-04-2018, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by SimonGleave View Post
Ha, excellent question. Clearly Leicester's title win was not something which anyone saw coming (and anyone claiming so after the fact needs to show me that they were saying it before the season started - not happened yet).

There was some evidence that Leicester were improving and we, at least, didn't have them going down in our pre-season prediction. However, the same could be said of a number of clubs - Palace were a top half team in the second half of the 2014/2015 season for example.

In terms of the xG type methodologies during that season, Leicester (perhaps surprisingly to many) DID perform like a top-4 team and on that basis, deserved to be in the Champions League places at the end of the season. This would have been a huge story in itself of course. So Leicester were actually a quality side in 2015/2016.

Where Leicester got lucky/were doing something which models can't pick up or whatever was at the back. They conceded 30% fewer goals than the chances they gave up suggested they should have. During that period I watched a number of their matches (one against Newcastle particularly sticks in the mind) in which they were totally outplayed but didn't concede and nicked a goal against the run of play.

So, they probably had some luck that season to finish top but they were a quality side in terms of the chances they created in particular.

Last season, they were no longer able to create as many opportunities as they had a season earlier so maybe they found a way of playing which worked for a while but was then combatted more successfully by their opponents. Maybe Kante was very important to them? Maybe the Champions League run (quarter-finals against all expectations remember) left them with not enough for the league itself. The big change in last season's Premier League for them though was defensively - little change in the number of goals expected to concede but now they were conceding more than that. So, last season they created fewer opportunities to score than in 2015/2016, resulting in much fewer goals and their defence conceded more than expected.

This season their attack is very similar to last season but the defence is much much better than in any previous Premier League season. Again, they are a quality side but one which is not good enough to challenge the top-6. They are in a fair position for their quality this season.
Thanks for the explanation. Having lived in Leicester I have a bunch of friends that are Fox fans and remember calculating before their recovery that they would need Championship form to get out of trouble and was duly gobsmacked when they did exactly that . So it was less of a surprise next season that they started that way but as you say I don't believe anyone predicted that they would sustain that and win the thing.

The trick and maybe the Alchemists stone here is to know what it is that truly lifts performance beyond the expected. I am guessing with a specific forward you tell over time if they consistently score more often than you would expect from 'positions' and you can also assess how often they get into those positions and with the ball. My guess is that it is possible to track and assess the amount of movement that a forward makes say in the box which 'might' possibly be an indicator, maybe not. But the quality of the assist blurs this and it is at some point too complex and likely with insufficient volume of data of each combination per individual.

I would think assessing defenders might be even more complex TBH and so I won't go there.

Fascinating stuff and it whiles away the time until the next match when it is all forgotten and undeniable personal bias takes over again
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  #310  
Old 12-04-2018, 03:11 PM
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No, too much is made of it but there is some small effect. I'd have to do proper analysis on it but it only really seems to matter when teams select a whole bunch of youngsters in the last 2 matches of the season.
Thanks Simon. However, that is 'illegal' isn't it?
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  #311  
Old 14-04-2018, 08:20 PM
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Time for an update after today's fixtures please, Simon.

FWIW, 538 has:
Palace 2%
Hammers 4%
BAHA 7% (keep growing...)
Hudds 12%
Swans 13%
Saints 72%
Stoke 90%
WBA >99%
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  #312  
Old 14-04-2018, 08:24 PM
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we are not going down now. Will probably get a few draws and wins out of our last games.

Stoke and Saints are in massive trouble, WBA gone, and Swansea/Hudders have tougher games.

We done enough. Now lets not have a massive **** around of a summer, and lets build on it.
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Old 15-04-2018, 10:55 AM
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Time for an update after today's fixtures please, Simon.

FWIW, 538 has:
Palace 2%
Hammers 4%
BAHA 7% (keep growing...)
Hudds 12%
Swans 13%
Saints 72%
Stoke 90%
WBA >99%
We only update after a whole round of fixtures is complete. I'll post something new on Tuesday.
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Old 16-04-2018, 12:56 PM
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We only update after a whole round of fixtures is complete. I'll post something new on Tuesday.
Good stuff Simon. Anything positive helps.
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Old 16-04-2018, 03:08 PM
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I've re run my stochastic model and we are as good as safe if you go by averages

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Old 16-04-2018, 03:21 PM
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Has anyone tracked the odds on us staying up since the start of the season? I have the feeling that the odds now are probably longer even than they were at the start of August.
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Old 16-04-2018, 03:22 PM
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Has anyone tracked the odds on us staying up since the start of the season? I have the feeling that the odds now are probably longer even than they were at the start of August.
I think we started at about 7/1.
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Old 16-04-2018, 03:24 PM
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I've re run my stochastic model and we are as good as safe if you go by averages




I see we have a 1 in 100,000 chance of finishing bottom. Nervous now.
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Old 16-04-2018, 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted by sirdougie View Post
I see we have a 1 in 100,000 chance of finishing bottom. Nervous now.
Those are Palace kind of odds.
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  #320  
Old 16-04-2018, 03:53 PM
eaglejez eaglejez is offline
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eaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dieteaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dieteaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dieteaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dieteaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dieteaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dieteaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dieteaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dieteaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dieteaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dieteaglejez came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
Quote:
Originally Posted by sirdougie View Post
I see we have a 1 in 100,000 chance of finishing bottom. Nervous now.
I could do a 1m scenario run
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