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  #961  
Old 12-07-2016, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by SE25 exile View Post
Yes but it is the experts again, and they are not to be trusted, are they?
Only want to hear from Brexperts...... and Brexpats...... but no time for Brextremists and expecting Brexcellence in all.


Mind you, can't help wondering what expert designed the BL logo for the post war German market:

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  #962  
Old 12-07-2016, 06:36 PM
Mat ov CPFC Mat ov CPFC is offline
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Originally Posted by delboy01 View Post
It will be a lot of bluster from the EU but this sums it up. Siemens has massive clout in Germany and has a £5 billion turn over in the UK. This is just one German company. Add BMW, Volkswagon, Mercedes and Heidelberg to name just a few, into the mix and you can immediately see why they have to get this sorted asap. The German government knows that if they play hard ball they will be shooting themselves in the foot.
Of course they do. And in terms of the wider European project, the Euro is completely under-pinned by the German export market. Anything that threatens to damage with that has to be a major elephant in the room when it comes to discussing our future trading relationship with the EU.

A trade war hurts the EU far more than us for a whole variety of reasons. And why there will not be one. Nobody wins.
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  #963  
Old 12-07-2016, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Biggineagle View Post
The Eurozone has its own internal problems, the IMF has downgraded its forecasts for growth for the entire eurozone thanks to Brexit, as well as the Italy crisis, with them facing 20 years of economic strife according to the IMF.

Italy is the third largest eurozone country also has sizeable government debt second only to that of Greece. Italy may need a sizeable amount of money from the Eurozone / EU / Banks. As for Greece, well they are gonna need more cash injections too. That money will have to come from the EU but not the UK Eurozone is in long term trouble and no mistake.
Greece are looking at permanent recession with increasing borrowing and high unemployment. Being in the EU and the euro means that they can do zip about it. Cut interest rates. Nope at 0%. Devalue currency. Nope in the euro. print money. nope in the euro.

Worst decision they ever made.

Iceland went bust in the 2008 banking crisis. Asked to join the EU. 8 years later they are back in the black and have decided not to join the EU.
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  #964  
Old 12-07-2016, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by delboy01 View Post
Now that 25% of the EU funding is exiting stage right they will have to give us what we want or create even more market instability.
Where does this 25% nonsense come from? Surely Leavers are not still making stuff up? In 2015 the total EU Budget for payments was £110.7 billion & UK net contribution was £8.5 billion which I make to be 7.6% right?
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  #965  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:11 PM
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Originally Posted by mik59 View Post
Where does this 25% nonsense come from? Surely Leavers are not still making stuff up? In 2015 the total EU Budget for payments was £110.7 billion & UK net contribution was £8.5 billion which I make to be 7.6% right?
25% sounds better.
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  #966  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Mat ov CPFC View Post
Of course they do. And in terms of the wider European project, the Euro is completely under-pinned by the German export market. Anything that threatens to damage with that has to be a major elephant in the room when it comes to discussing our future trading relationship with the EU.

A trade war hurts the EU far more than us for a whole variety of reasons. And why there will not be one. Nobody wins.
do you not think that Germany can also export to other economies too. share we are an important market to them but don't think that we are their only market. the reality is that nobody wins through Brexit. things just become more complicated.
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Last edited by weltklasse; 12-07-2016 at 07:19 PM.
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  #967  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by mik59 View Post
Where does this 25% nonsense come from? Surely Leavers are not still making stuff up? In 2015 the total EU Budget for payments was £110.7 billion & UK net contribution was £8.5 billion which I make to be 7.6% right?
Yeah but if you round it up, it's basically 25%. Nearly.
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  #968  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Crozzy71 View Post
I attended a presentation by our chief economist last week. The revised 2017 forecasts post-Brexit are - pre-Brexit in ( ):

- GDP 1.5% (2.6)
- Base Rate 0% (0.5 / 1.00)
- unemployment 6.2% (5.5)
- corporate investment -3.5 (0.5)

His view of GBP:USD is that it will fluctuate before settling somewhere between 1.30 and 1.40.

So, there are dangers of us talking or worrying ourselves into recession when in fact these figures show continued growth albeit at a slower place.

Like most things with the markets, something happens and its shock horror. Dust settles and some clarity and confidence returns.

We are where we are. We remain a strong global economy (let's not forget the proportionate scale of our banking crisis relative to the size of the country) who came out of the recession quicker and stronger than most.

We are an important trading partner for many parts of the world.

I think the EU has more to worry about than we have about leaving. They've just lost their 2nd biggest economy / contributor so will have to go cap in hand to the rest who a) won't want to pay it and b) probably can't afford it.
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  #969  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:29 PM
Mat ov CPFC Mat ov CPFC is offline
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Originally Posted by weltklasse View Post
do you not think that Germany can also export to other economies too. share we are an important market to them but don't think that we are their only market. the reality is that nobody wins through Brexit. things just become more complicated.
Germany can export to who it wants. The issue here is the the Euro is precariously balanced, especially given the Italian banking crisis that is simmering away, along with the Greek issue that is looming once again. And that is not even considering Portugal.

No, Germany needs absolute stability and getting into a pissing contest with the UK by way of placating a load of vindictive EU knob-heads whose pride has been hurt by our voting to tell them to **** off, is not on the agenda.

The EU dances to Germanys tune, especially when it comes to economics and especially now.
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  #970  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:32 PM
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Originally Posted by weltklasse View Post
do you not think that Germany can also export to other economies too. share we are an important market to them but don't think that we are their only market. the reality is that nobody wins through Brexit. things just become more complicated.
Indeed so. German exports to UK are about 7% of the total value of all their trade so not inconsiderable but hardly a deal breaker either especially as Germany is the world's 3rd biggest exporter and given what it exports then it has more potential to rebalance any loss of trade to the UK than the UK has of rebalancing any losses of trade to the EU.
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  #971  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by mik59 View Post
Where does this 25% nonsense come from? Surely Leavers are not still making stuff up? In 2015 the total EU Budget for payments was £110.7 billion & UK net contribution was £8.5 billion which I make to be 7.6% right?
No. You are using two different figures, surely? The £110.7bn presumably is total expenditure but the £8.5bn is the NET UK contribution. We probably contribute more but get some back so that the net comes to £8.7bn. I doubt the true figure is 25% though.
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  #972  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:38 PM
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Originally Posted by mik59 View Post
Indeed so. German exports to UK are about 7% of the total value of all their trade so not inconsiderable but hardly a deal breaker either especially as Germany is the world's 3rd biggest exporter and given what it exports then it has more potential to rebalance any loss of trade to the UK than the UK has of rebalancing any losses of trade to the EU.

Come off it. Germany industry has zero interest in getting involved in any sort of pissing war with the UK for purposes of salvaging some odious EU bureaucrats ego.

It seems clear that the UK are not interested in a trade war and neither is Germany. And that is all that ultimately matters. The EU will fall into line behind that.
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  #973  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
No. You are using two different figures, surely? The £110.7bn presumably is total expenditure but the £8.5bn is the NET UK contribution. We probably contribute more but get some back so that the net comes to £8.7bn. I doubt the true figure is 25% though.
If you take 2015 total commitments (I.e. money still to be attributed to the budget for last year) then the % UK contribution is even lower.
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  #974  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:43 PM
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Sorry Mik, I don't follow. Is there a simple chart outlining the total EU budget and the contribution each country makes. Then a second chart highlighting the plus or minus net contribution after rebates, loans, investments and subsidies?
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  #975  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Mat ov CPFC View Post
Come off it. Germany industry has zero interest in getting involved in any sort of pissing war with the UK for purposes of salvaging some odious EU bureaucrats ego.

It seems clear that the UK are not interested in a trade war and neither is Germany. And that is all that ultimately matters. The EU will fall into line behind that.
No one is suggesting a trade war. It's about how far Germany will seek to push for compromises with the UK in any future regional trade deal i.e one between whole EU and UK. The numbers suggest that there is no economic case for Germany to do so. Any deal is of more importance to us than it is to them.

Besides which this is all getting way ahead of ourselves. First we need to invoke Article 50 and then secure the withdrawal agreement. Trade deals are separate and largely come after.
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  #976  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
Sorry Mik, I don't follow. Is there a simple chart outlining the total EU budget and the contribution each country makes. Then a second chart highlighting the plus or minus net contribution after rebates, loans, investments and subsidies?
See link and I think I know how I've confused things. What delboy was referring to was national contributions to revenue, which get confusing as it means recalculating for annual expenditure versus financial year. So just as % of EU revenue then UK contributed 12.6% after the rebate is taken into account.

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  #977  
Old 12-07-2016, 07:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Mat ov CPFC View Post
The EU dances to Germanys tune, especially when it comes to economics and especially now.
Posted this pre referendum.

"Restlessness and anxiety is said to be growing across top companies in Germany as next month’s historic EU referendum draws closer. The future of German companies will be thrown into doubt in the event of Britain freeing itself from the shackles of Brussels as 2,500 businesses have branches across the UK. As Remain and Leave camps drum up support for their campaigns here in the UK, DZ Bank says Brexit would cost the Germany economy £34.8bn by 2017 alone and the country could fall into recession. German experts predicted Britain leaving Europe would act as a “slow poison” to their countries economy.

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"The question now seems to be "when" will the system break "rather than if", said Moody's in a scathing report. Years of austerity policies have fuelled resentment and disappointment with the project and Europe's blundering response to the migration crisis has also exposed weaknesses, according the firm. Coupled with incomplete reforms within the financial system, the EU could break up when faced with even small shocks, said the credit agency. Moody's stressed that if Britain votes out of the union in forthcoming referendum, Europe could foreseeably fall apart, as support for anti-EU parties grows elsewhere."

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Not all fine and dandy in the EU.
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  #978  
Old 12-07-2016, 11:35 PM
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Here's one for the Brexiters. Bloomberg run a series of scenarios on European banks. We're aware of going on at Monte Paschi, the Italian banking system, and Germany' intransigence. Well BBG pointed out that Deutsche Bank is trading at 25% of book value (fallen out of love or a mis-marked balance sheet?) and is odds on to be the next bank swallowed up - possibly by Barclays. Speculation of course, but how would Germany react to DB getting into difficulty and how does this foot with its attitude to the financial system elsewhere?
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Old 14-07-2016, 09:20 AM
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Asset managers have begun their slow detachment from London following Britain’s historic vote to leave the EU, with fund companies finalising plans to reduce their reliance on the City.

M&G, Columbia Threadneedle, Legg Mason and Fidelity International have all outlined intentions to either move staff out of the UK capital or set up fund ranges in neighbouring EU countries in fear of being locked out of European fundraising.

No asset manager has yet announced it will shift its headquarters away from the City but the retreat has prompted the Investment Association, the London-based trade body for UK-based asset managers, to hold a special meeting with its members on Tuesday to tackle the fallout from the vote.

The deep concern is that a British exit — or Brexit — from the EU will threaten the UK’s position as the world’s second-largest asset management centre after the US. Investment companies based in the UK manage £5.5tn of assets and employ 35,000 people. Another 25,000 staff work for related entities.
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Old 14-07-2016, 09:44 AM
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Here's one for the Brexiters. Bloomberg run a series of scenarios on European banks. We're aware of going on at Monte Paschi, the Italian banking system, and Germany' intransigence. Well BBG pointed out that Deutsche Bank is trading at 25% of book value (fallen out of love or a mis-marked balance sheet?) and is odds on to be the next bank swallowed up - possibly by Barclays. Speculation of course, but how would Germany react to DB getting into difficulty and how does this foot with its attitude to the financial system elsewhere?
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