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  #68961  
Old 20-04-2018, 10:34 AM
Nth Kent Eagle Nth Kent Eagle is offline
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If it is indeed too difficult to leave the EU with all the vested interests opposing then workers need to find another way to tackle rehional and social inequality and the ruinous trade deficit.
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  #68962  
Old 20-04-2018, 10:36 AM
Nth Kent Eagle Nth Kent Eagle is offline
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
It’s funny. It’s as if brexiters think the majority of politicians agree with them and think leaving the customs union is a great idea. They don’t, they think it is a shit sandwich and are just building up enough excuses and people to blame so they can paint over the red line.

Ireland has proved remarkably helpful in the fudge creation.

Next up the single market. What is the point of leaving that if we are staying in the customs union? The Eu have kindly given us to the end of 2020 to fudge that one.
Agreed. The UK is a prisoner in the EU it seems.
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  #68963  
Old 20-04-2018, 10:41 AM
Hpalace Hpalace is offline
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
Agreed. The UK is a prisoner in the EU it seems.
Yep. Locked themselves in (they became the prisoner and the guard) in 1998. The U.K. did this voluntarily though. No one made them and in fact everyone, bar Michael gove, thought it was a brilliant idea at the time.
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  #68964  
Old 20-04-2018, 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
Yep. Locked themselves in (they became the prisoner and the guard) in 1998. The U.K. did this voluntarily though. No one made them and in fact everyone, bar Michael gove, thought it was a brilliant idea at the time.
If it really is the case that we are prisoners rather than members then every policy decision by the UK govrnment has to be factored into that backdrop. Gosh, we need a government not dependent upon the DUP.
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  #68965  
Old Yesterday, 08:27 AM
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Some more economic upbeat news for the doomsters to mull over

UK economic growth could pick up much more sharply than expected by the end of 2018, according to Mike Bell, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.
That's because Bell expects inflation to fall quicker than most people expect, while wage growth will continue to increase steadily.
This creates situation where consumers are increasing their real wages and are more confident to spend.
That in turn will boost the wider UK economy, which is heavily consumer based.

The economic pain felt in the UK in the last couple of years since the Brexit vote looks to be coming to an end, according to Mike Bell, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Speaking to journalists on Tuesday, Bell said that the combination of gradually rising wages, and the likelihood of sharply falling inflation could combine to make the UK's economic picture look far rosier than it has done since the referendum by the end of 2018.

Bell's basic argument is that as inflation falls and wages rise — leading to real wage growth for Brits — consumer confidence will increase, which traditionally augurs well for the UK's consumption based economy.

"By the end of the year wage growth will only be about 3%, but inflation could be back down pretty much at target [2%], so that real wages by the end of the year could be positive by 1%," he said. Wage growth in Britain right now is running at 2.8%, according to ONS data released this week.

"If that's the case then, there's historically been a pretty strong correlation between real wage growth and UK consumer confidence, and fundamentally between consumer confidence and retail sales," he said.

The outlook for the British high street in recent years — particularly since the Brexit vote — has been fairly bleak, but things could change as consumer confidence turns around, Bell reasoned.

"That very pessimistic view on the UK high street and consumption, which has been the reason that UK growth has been stuck in the doldrums over the last 18-24 months, we could be at the nadir for that, and about to see more of an improvement than most people are expecting," he said.

Most forecasters expect inflation to fall this year as the pound strengthens following its post-vote slump, and recent data, which has seen inflation fall from 3% to 2.5% in just two months, suggests that this hypothesis is correct. Bell. however, things the rate of inflation might fall even faster than most people expect.

"It's certainly not implausible that you see UK inflation back at, or maybe even below target, by the end of this year. I think that is probably under-appreciated."

The reason for that, Bell said, is that people are underestimating just how quickly core goods inflation could fall during 2018.

"Core goods inflation went up because of the fall in sterling, and obviously sterling hasn't only not continued to fall, it has gone up materially over the last year.

"Core goods CPI could fall back to negative territory really quite quickly, perhaps even by the end of this year," he said, pointing to the charts below:


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  #68966  
Old Yesterday, 08:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by racehorse-80s View Post
Some more economic upbeat news for the doomsters to mull over

UK economic growth could pick up much more sharply than expected by the end of 2018, according to Mike Bell, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.
That's because Bell expects inflation to fall quicker than most people expect, while wage growth will continue to increase steadily.
This creates situation where consumers are increasing their real wages and are more confident to spend.
That in turn will boost the wider UK economy, which is heavily consumer based.

The economic pain felt in the UK in the last couple of years since the Brexit vote looks to be coming to an end, according to Mike Bell, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Speaking to journalists on Tuesday, Bell said that the combination of gradually rising wages, and the likelihood of sharply falling inflation could combine to make the UK's economic picture look far rosier than it has done since the referendum by the end of 2018.

Bell's basic argument is that as inflation falls and wages rise — leading to real wage growth for Brits — consumer confidence will increase, which traditionally augurs well for the UK's consumption based economy.

"By the end of the year wage growth will only be about 3%, but inflation could be back down pretty much at target [2%], so that real wages by the end of the year could be positive by 1%," he said. Wage growth in Britain right now is running at 2.8%, according to ONS data released this week.

"If that's the case then, there's historically been a pretty strong correlation between real wage growth and UK consumer confidence, and fundamentally between consumer confidence and retail sales," he said.

The outlook for the British high street in recent years — particularly since the Brexit vote — has been fairly bleak, but things could change as consumer confidence turns around, Bell reasoned.

"That very pessimistic view on the UK high street and consumption, which has been the reason that UK growth has been stuck in the doldrums over the last 18-24 months, we could be at the nadir for that, and about to see more of an improvement than most people are expecting," he said.

Most forecasters expect inflation to fall this year as the pound strengthens following its post-vote slump, and recent data, which has seen inflation fall from 3% to 2.5% in just two months, suggests that this hypothesis is correct. Bell. however, things the rate of inflation might fall even faster than most people expect.

"It's certainly not implausible that you see UK inflation back at, or maybe even below target, by the end of this year. I think that is probably under-appreciated."

The reason for that, Bell said, is that people are underestimating just how quickly core goods inflation could fall during 2018.

"Core goods inflation went up because of the fall in sterling, and obviously sterling hasn't only not continued to fall, it has gone up materially over the last year.

"Core goods CPI could fall back to negative territory really quite quickly, perhaps even by the end of this year," he said, pointing to the charts below:


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Well let us hope this is the case for all our sakes. However, remember that the EU has grown faster in the same environment as us, and we have been part of it. This is also a prediction, and if you are a true leaver, you never believe them. Finally, any growth could be stifled by a crap FTA in the hands of a crap government, one that we unfortunately are stuck with for the time being.
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  #68967  
Old Yesterday, 08:45 AM
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weltklasse weltklasse is offline
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is racey still posting shit that has nothing to do with Brexit. FFS.
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  #68968  
Old Yesterday, 08:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weltklasse View Post
is racey still posting shit that has nothing to do with Brexit. FFS.
Now, now. Be kind.

He must be lonely, what with all his extreme right wing mates getting banned. They are disappearing as fast as Brexit voters are shuffling off this mortal coil.

Tick tock.
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