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  #122861  
Old 25-01-2016, 02:29 PM
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Feel a bit like the Grim Reaper here, but comparing our current situation to last season gives more pause for thought...

Premier League: End Jan 2016
11. Crystal Palace 31

15. Swansea City 25
16. Bournemouth 25
17. Norwich City 23
18. Newcastle Utd 21
19. Sunderland 19
20. Aston Villa 13

This was the situation last year:

Premier League: End Jan 2015
8. West Ham Utd 36 [47]
11. Newcastle Utd 30 [39]

15. WBA 22 [44]
16. Aston Villa 22 [38]
17. Burnley 20 [33]
18. Hull City 19 [35]
19. QPR 19 [30]
20. Leicester City 17 [41]

As you can see we are in the same position as Newcastle were with one point more, however, Newcastle were 11 points above the top relegation spot whereas we have a 10 point cushion so effectively the positions are equal.
I posted West Ham's poor record in an earlier post and did not realise that Newcastle had an even worse record (Worst in League for the last 15 matches). From this point of the season onwards their record read: W2 D3 L10 - a continuous nine match losing run in March and April.
The finishing points total is shown in blue and the relegated teams highlighted in red. Newcastle thus survived by 6 points and were helped by stopping the losing run with a draw (WBA) and victory (West Ham) in their last three matches. Things may have been different if Burnley had won their 6 pointers against QPR and Hull (Both 1-0) during the same period.
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  #122862  
Old 04-02-2016, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Louis View Post
Tonight, bookmakers offer widely differing odds on our relegation chances. From 66/1 at Labrokes to 200/1 at Skybet

To view the link you have to Register or Login
Down to 40/1 with some bookies - highest odds were Betfair sportsbook (66/1).
The 500/1 would have provided a good back-to-lay profit already.
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  #122863  
Old 15-02-2016, 10:38 AM
SeanPalace84 SeanPalace84 is offline
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Originally Posted by Cake and Eat It View Post
Ridiculous post.
Wasn't a ridiculous post after all, just the cash out which would be massive now would have made it worth it. I called it and didn't want to be right but could see it happening. 20s with some now.

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  #122864  
Old 15-02-2016, 10:55 AM
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Ok yes so 500.0 was available but not really available for any significant money. If you had backed at 300.0 you could cash out for effectively at 6/1 winner, not exactly life changing, even backing it at 500/1 you would be looking at a 13/1 winner, nice but nothing more

Not saying you wouldn't be sitting on a decent bet but the practicality of backing at 500/1 and the reality aren't necessarily the same

Personally I just can't bring myself to back Palace to go down, and I'm not normally one for sentiment (taken more than my fair share of misery insurance as James calls it), just think that when Bolasie is back we'll again beat teams when least expected

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  #122865  
Old 16-02-2016, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by SeanPalace84 View Post
Wasn't a ridiculous post after all, just the cash out which would be massive now would have made it worth it. I called it and didn't want to be right but could see it happening. 20s with some now.
To soften the blow if relegation happened I had 2 at 250/1 with Bet365,current cash out offer is 2.50.
I also had 1.21 at 250/1 with Betfair,current cash out offer is 8.84.
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  #122866  
Old 16-02-2016, 11:17 PM
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Wow, you can see why bookies are pushing cash out so hard, that's a terrible offer!!

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I had 2 at 250/1 with Bet365,current cash out offer is 2.50.
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  #122867  
Old 16-02-2016, 11:51 PM
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Some cash out offers are ridiculous,must be saving them a fortune.
Saw somebody who had the first winner in a double cash out after one winner for less than he would have got for just the win single.
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  #122868  
Old 17-02-2016, 12:26 AM
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Well they'll always offer you less than the win single but it shouldn't be much less...otherwise we'd put all our singles as multis and just cash out after leg 1

There was one in Aus which was crazy, multi leg multi waiting for an odds on shot for a pick up of around $4k and he cashed out for 3 figures, unforgivable, think it was a Prem League match as well so Betfair hedging was an option
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  #122869  
Old 17-02-2016, 12:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar View Post
Well they'll always offer you less than the win single but it shouldn't be much less...otherwise we'd put all our singles as multis and just cash out after leg 1

There was one in Aus which was crazy, multi leg multi waiting for an odds on shot for a pick up of around $4k and he cashed out for 3 figures, unforgivable, think it was a Prem League match as well so Betfair hedging was an option
That's pure stupidity! It's no wonder the bookies make so much money.
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  #122870  
Old 17-02-2016, 12:45 AM
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Yep, stupid or totally skint and couldn't risk losing. I've seen a few of these on line and each time wonder why bother putting the final leg in if you can't wait for it to take place (unless injuries or some other valid reason to make you regret including it, which there never is!)

I try and leave trading our to Betfair bets, at least if there is liquidity you know you're getting reasonable value for money
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Old 17-02-2016, 04:54 PM
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Quote:
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Some cash out offers are ridiculous, must be saving them a fortune.
I bet in-play with 365 and some of theirs certainly are
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  #122872  
Old 17-02-2016, 05:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Finbar View Post
Well they'll always offer you less than the win single but it shouldn't be much less...otherwise we'd put all our singles as multis and just cash out after leg 1
I wasn't getting at the derisory cash out offer, I was pointing out the punter who was daft enough to do a double and cash out for less than the win single.
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Old 18-02-2016, 03:07 PM
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Wasn't sure where to post this, but as it connects to the relegation odds discussion earlier I might as well post here.

I came across this blog discussing the closing stages of the 2014 Premier League.
To view the link you have to Register or Login

I quite liked looking at the relative strengths of the remaining fixtures based upon the average points gained by the opposition home and away so have calculated this year's data.
Crystal Palace have the second worst home points averaging 1 point per game which is equal with Bournemouth and just above Villa who average 0.77 points. Away from home we are much stronger averaging 1.5/game which is equal to Liverpool's record and puts us equal 7th.
For all of the remaining matches, I used the average points gained by the opposition (either home or away as appropriate) as an assessment of the difficulty of the match. Rather than the original article's banding I simply used the score. By averaging all the scores we get a figure that represents the relative difficulty of all the remaining fixtures for each team. We get a range of scores from 1.19 to 1.51 with Palace having the hardest run in:

Crystal Palace 1.51
Sunderland 1.50
West Brom 1.49
Man United 1.48
Aston Villa 1.45
West Ham 1.40
Chelsea 1.39
Watford 1.39
Swansea 1.38
Newcastle 1.35
Everton 1.33
Tottenham 1.31
Bournemouth 1.31
Man City 1.30
Arsenal 1.30
Liverpool 1.29
Norwich 1.26
Southampton 1.24
Leicester 1.19
Stoke 1.19


Basically, the table shows the average strength of the opposition for the remaining fixtures based upon the current League positions (as the points directly correlate to the League position). It is interesting that Leicester are equal last which bodes well for their title hopes.
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Old 18-02-2016, 07:06 PM
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Leicester are equal last which bodes well for their title hopes.
And not encouraging for our end of season hopes
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Old 19-02-2016, 12:39 PM
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Betting Thread ?

We are doomed
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Old 19-02-2016, 04:22 PM
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The thing about statistics is that you can pretty much prove any point of view.
Luckily for Palace, we do not get an average score over the remaining matches - it is all about the matches where you pick up points.
If we look at the breakdown of individual matches there are games that we can (and need) to pick up points:

[A] West Bromwich Albion 1.23
[A] Sunderland 1.15
[H] Liverpool 1.5
[A] Manchester United 1.83
[H] Leicester City 2
[A] West Ham United 1.67
[H] Norwich City 0.62
[A] Arsenal 2.08
[A] Everton 1.58
[A] Newcastle United 1.31
[H] Stoke City 1.36
[A] Southampton 1.77


Obviously the matches in red pose the greatest challenge, but we should be looking at 3 points from the green matches which should be enough to guarantee survival. The worry is that these teams will be highly motivated themselves in trying to avoid the drop.
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Old 21-02-2016, 10:30 AM
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Adeboyor to score in 90 minutes 3/1! Good value or not?
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Old 21-02-2016, 09:46 PM
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Adeboyor to score in 90 minutes 3/1! Good value or not?
Turns out not
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Old 29-02-2016, 02:31 PM
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si1965 si1965 is offline
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Palace relegation odds now 20/1 with most bookies
Tuesday's match away to Sunderland is massive considering our run-in only has two teams below us in the table and 6 games are against top 10 teams.
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Old 29-02-2016, 03:00 PM
SeanPalace84 SeanPalace84 is offline
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Palace relegation odds now 20/1 with most bookies
Tuesday's match away to Sunderland is massive considering our run-in only has two teams below us in the table and 6 games are against top 10 teams.
I was basically laughed at when I said 500/1 was good value.

Saying that I do think we will stay up though.
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