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  #21  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:31 AM
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I plugged the figures into Electoral Calculus' model. Lab maj of 6:
Lab - 329 seats
Con - 258
LD - 13
Green - 1
SNP - 28
PC - 3
+NI

Best bit: Boris Johnson loses seat
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  #22  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:35 AM
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Originally Posted by cpfc4evandeva View Post
My fear in all this is simply that the Conservatives will get Boris Johnson in as leader soon, he'll say embarrassing, stupid and rude things to anyone and everyone, fall on his arse a few times, wave a British flag around, and the idiots in this country will vote for him in their droves.

There are a lot of idiots in this country, so it will win them a lot of votes.
That is my main political worry
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  #23  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:37 AM
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Here's one estimate relative to 2015 (not 2017).

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OOh a chance for Plaid Cymru to trouser a 1bn for Wales then.
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  #24  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:39 AM
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Here's one estimate relative to 2015 (not 2017).

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Here's another one which has scope for greater regional sensitivity if you have the data, but at a coarse input predicts Lab 318; Con 258; LibDem 15; SNP 35. It totals 650, so I guess that's on the current rather than new boundaries.
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  #25  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by cpfc4evandeva View Post
My fear in all this is simply that the Conservatives will get Boris Johnson in as leader soon, he'll say embarrassing, stupid and rude things to anyone and everyone, fall on his arse a few times, wave a British flag around, and the idiots in this country will vote for him in their droves.

There are a lot of idiots in this country, so it will win them a lot of votes.
there it is again....."idiots"..... anyone who doesnt buy Corbyns "magic money FOREST" ideals is an idiot.
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  #26  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:47 AM
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Originally Posted by DE - Glad All Over View Post
It's indeed stunning. Just goes to show how quickly fortunes of any of those in power can change.

All credit to Corbyn's advisors. I also strongly believe social media played an enormous part with youngsters and Socialist momentum, but the Conservatives will learn.

However, I do wonder if Labour have now shot their best bolt.
This is and isn't true in my opinion. The reason Labour did so well on social media is because they have a large membership who are actively engaged with social media and a lot of the 'youth media' for want of a better phrase are naturally Labour supporters.

The Conservative membership is largely older and dare I say, more technologically illiterate and young Conservative members have never been the most hip people I've ever met.

here's one stat I've heard


Conservatives budgeted around 1 million for social media advertising.

Momentum budgeted 2000.

Guess what the difference was in terms of impressions?

very little to nothing.

I think largely with the collapse of UKIP as a force and the shift of the conservatives to the right, the social media war at the next election will be tighter because the meme makers of the alt-right will throw all their weight into supporting the Tories but the party themselves doesn't have the correct infrastructure in any sense to launch the kind of successful, organic, viral campaign that Labour did.
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  #27  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:50 AM
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In my opinion the rise of JC and the votes he gained were a result of social media. He led a terrific campaign against the tories who were abysmal. My newsfeed was lit up with labour propoganda throughout the campaign, its no wonder people bought into their lies promising a golden age.
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  #28  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:56 AM
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Not really a surprise. It was only a few months ago Labour and the Conservative support was the reverse of this poll. I doubt if the Tories will be too concerned right now, as Harold Wilson once famously said a week is a long time in politics.

With Parliament heading for the Summer recess really important polls will be those toward Christmas and the New Year. The big lesson for Labour is had there been a calmer period in the last 12 to 18 months without constant in fighting they would have no doubt won in June. The key going forward is if they can keep up at least an appearance of unity
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  #29  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:57 AM
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It is very significant and therefore means a lot.

It is a clear indication as to why the Tory party are propping up the most incompetent PM in my lifetime, as they cannot risk another GE right now.

However if she carries on as she has a Tory backbench revolt is not far off.
They've just paid a bung that would have satisfied about 20,000 George Grahams to prop up their power. The Tories are immensely practical when it comes to ensuring the continuation of plutocracy and will do whatever it takes to keep economic control in their hands. Ultimately, we will have another five years of working class 'austerity' while corporation tax will go down to 17% and all is done to satisfy the stateless, international elite, keep their money here and keep the Establishment in charge not just of the structure of our society but, currently, our government. If there is a backbench revolt, it will be one that ensures another general election is avoided and control of that 'magic money tree' maintained by those born for power.

Wow, I need this heat to end. Getting worked up with some very revolutionary thoughts...
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  #30  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:58 AM
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there it is again....."idiots"..... anyone who doesnt buy Corbyns "magic money FOREST" ideals is an idiot.
The conservatives sure believe no nes an idiot now once they handed over 1 BILLION POUNDS of "magic money" to the DUP.
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  #31  
Old 07-07-2017, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted by palace_crystal View Post
In my opinion the rise of JC and the votes he gained were a result of social media. He led a terrific campaign against the tories who were abysmal. My newsfeed was lit up with labour propoganda throughout the campaign, its no wonder people bought into their lies promising a golden age.
A promise for a golden age? Dont remember that, maybe because there was no such promise.

What I do remember is a campaign that focused on creating a fairer society that valued people.
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  #32  
Old 07-07-2017, 12:03 PM
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  #33  
Old 07-07-2017, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Percy Dalton View Post
With Parliament heading for the Summer recess really important polls will be those toward Christmas and the New Year. The big lesson for Labour is had there been a calmer period in the last 12 to 18 months without constant in fighting they would have no doubt won in June. The key going forward is if they can keep up at least an appearance of unity
The Labour party is almost split in two already. Not long till war breaks out, the honeymoon period is nearly over.
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  #34  
Old 07-07-2017, 12:08 PM
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there it is again....."idiots"..... anyone who doesnt buy Corbyns "magic money FOREST" ideals is an idiot.
Nope, but as usual, you read what you want to read.

I will say though, anyone who thinks that having a clown as their mayor, MP, or indeed, PM, is a f*cking idiot.
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  #35  
Old 07-07-2017, 12:10 PM
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  #36  
Old 07-07-2017, 12:13 PM
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Corbyn lost all credibility for me when he sacked three frontbenchers who voted against the party just a few days after parading around Glastonbury and accepting the adulation of people who want to stay in the EU. Corbyn populism will be as ephemeral as the Maybot's.
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Old 07-07-2017, 12:14 PM
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Yeah. Just a phase he was going through.
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  #38  
Old 07-07-2017, 12:17 PM
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there it is again....."idiots"..... anyone who doesnt buy Corbyns "magic money FOREST" ideals is an idiot.
Yes, unlike the IFS who said that Labour would raise 40 billion a year with their proposals to modestly increase taxes on corporations and the highest earners. There's nothing magic about it. What I find magical is the ease at which people vote against their economic and societal self interest and justify such actions by regurgitating, sometimes verbatim, the lies, spin and catchphrases the Tories use to gain said votes.

Can you imagine how they laugh at Tory HQ when they see a red faced working class member of the public rail about the magic money tree despite 7 years of austerity hollowing out his public services and slashing his pay and conditions whilst the rich take more of his money?
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Old 07-07-2017, 12:22 PM
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Corbyn lost all credibility for me when he sacked three frontbenchers who voted against the party just a few days after parading around Glastonbury and accepting the adulation of people who want to stay in the EU. Corbyn populism will be as ephemeral as the Maybot's.
These actions seem to me to be entirely consistent. The Glastonbury crowd, presumably want lots of things - first amongst them might be the removal of the Tory government. Allowing The Tories to fight each other over Brexit requires that Labour keeps its position vague. Frustrating but neccessary, and why Chuka Umunna's amendment was unhelpful to say the least (unless Labour is continuing to play both sides, but even that entails the sacking of front bench dissenters).
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Old 07-07-2017, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by costello View Post
Corbyn lost all credibility for me when he sacked three frontbenchers who voted against the party just a few days after parading around Glastonbury and accepting the adulation of people who want to stay in the EU. Corbyn populism will be as ephemeral as the Maybot's.
If Corbyn had sacked shadow cabinet ministers in his early days of his leadership who were openly briefing against him he would not have suffered as badly as he did leading up to the to the GE. He has finally started to show the leadership qualities that were so sadly lacking in his early days.
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