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  #122001  
Old 11-04-2014, 11:38 PM
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I'll put it to bed under the fortunate category as Athletico had enough chances to be 3 or 4 up before HT, Barcelona were pony.

Good week though. Athletico have Chelsea in the semi-finals, the weakest team left out of the 4, so have Bayern and Athletico in separate draws so ideally could be 1-2 for the final, obviously having got Athletico at 21s, would prefer them. Sevilla smashed Porto despite being down to 10 men for most of the second half and have again the easiest tie against Valencia, great news for Juventus to be drawn against Benfica, got Sevilla at 24s, now trading at 6, so hopeful of a final appearance, could be in some good trading positions there.

They did play the darts PL, van Barneveld took advantage of having two games by winning both, but that still leaves MVG top by 1 point, having a game in hand. Unfortunately it looks like the Taylor gravy train is now over.

A few things could get settled by the weekend (though they are more or less settled anyway). Everton top 7 and Southampton top 10 and of course a massive day on Sunday for the top of the league.
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122002  
Old 11-04-2014, 11:40 PM
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Three for the weekend

Everton 17/20 @ Marathonbet
North Queensland Cowboys 17/20 @ Marathonbet (8/11 DNB), Rugby League, Sat 10.30am
Kebede to win London Marathon @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) e/w 1-2-3 (Sunday)
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122003  
Old 12-04-2014, 04:40 PM
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Everton a winner, Cowboys a poor loser, small loss on the day.

Everton top 7 (well bet without the top 6, so sort of the same bet settled), was a 100 pre season-bet so 270 returned - 8 commission, Southampton top 10 not done yet after surprise defeat to Cardiff. Palace reverted to the 85% unders, great result, puts us ahead of Hull in the promoted clubs market, and still a tiny squeak at top 10, would be amusing. Sunderland have been cut adrift at the bottom, have them to finish last and to be relegated, odds on to finish bottom now. Everton now in top 4, trade at 2.24, wouldn't want to take Arsenal at 1.74 for 4th. Would be nice to see Barcelona bounce against Granada later on tonight.
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122004  
Old 12-04-2014, 06:47 PM
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Come on Granada. Barcelona are losing the plot and Neymar is cheating scum.
__________________
There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122005  
Old 12-04-2014, 07:49 PM
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Get in there. **** you Barcelona and your tippy tappy football.
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122006  
Old 13-04-2014, 02:45 PM
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Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Not Liverpool for the title.
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122007  
Old 13-04-2014, 06:04 PM
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Just lost out on over 600 off a 3.80 bet as the last game in my accy (Liverpool Man City,) didn't end in a draw. Absolutely gutted, especially as it was a mistake that led to the winning goal...
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  #122008  
Old 13-04-2014, 10:51 PM
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I guess you didn't notice Skirtel clearly punch the ball away shortly after, should have been a stonewall pen!
__________________
There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122009  
Old 14-04-2014, 03:15 PM
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Saturday was good, Sunday not so much. Kebede ran into 3rd, so scraps for the place money. Golf a little disappointing, Johnson and Mickleson didn't make the cut, and Rory's 77 2nd round where he couldn't putt a thing did for the top UK and Ireland bet as well as probably costing him the victory. I think there was one hole which was a par five which he hit a great drive, just had to get on the green, mishit the second, which then hit a sprinkler, shot about 100 feet in the air and landed in the bushes. Where he should have had an eagle, ended with a bogey. Frustrating thing was that he then went on to hit a 71 and 69 and was in the shared lead for the top UK and Ireland position, until Lee Westwood beat him by one shot by birdieing the 18th with virtually the last ball of the tournament. Nice play from the front two though throughout the tournament.

Man City were a disappointment, Pelligrini seemed to get things wrong completely tactically first half, when he knew Liverpool would get at them, not sure why Hart is rushing out of goal for the first, and after giving Gerrard a free header that was tipped over, they then allowed Skirtel another one from the resultant corner. Looked like City were taking complete control second half when Liverpool got their third. Really didn't think they would beat City, surely they cant win 14 in a row. If they do, you have to hand it to them. Hopefully we can scupper their bid.

Athletico took advantage of Barcelona's slip up to go 3 points clear (and a virtual 4 points clear of Real as Real cannot go above them on GD), Costa's injury would have been a blow and looked bad, but apparently isn't serious and should play on Friday.
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122010  
Old 16-04-2014, 12:50 PM
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Played the unders in the Juventus game and Reading game on Monday, and somehow both games finished under, Udinese hitting the post and somehow not scoring in the 92nd minute against Juve was painful to watch, always a nightmare when you go under and there is two relatively early goals, have to wait until the 75th minute plus, before you can even think about drawing level, let alone going in front. If I'd played the overs in those games, I'd be cursing my luck right now, but that's the nature of sports betting.

Dinamo Kiev/Shaktar over 2.5 @ 1.98
Everton/Palace under 2.5 @ 2.18
Real Madrid @ 3
Real Madrid @ 2.12 to win Copa Del Rey (same match but includes ET/Pens) @ 2.12 (5 pts)
Benfica -1 @ 2.49

Wasn't going to get too involved in Palace for the rest of the season, but the unders look value, still 85%+ for the unders and trading odds against, Everton 9 from 9 at home, so would expect the best chance for us would be another defensive performance, worry about us against the more mobile teams and Everton need the win so a bit of pressure on them as well.

Can't quite explain Real's price tonight, Barcelona haven't scored last 2 and got beat by Getafe at the weekend, totally dominated by Atletico, Real haven't got Ronaldo but still think they have enough, not sure how Barca are favourites here. Admittedly Real did get turned over by Dortmund but they were sitting 3-0 up from the first leg and didn't play with any real urgency, different tonight, Dortmund then went on to beat Bayern 3-0 away! Barcelona (though doing me a favour at the time) when beating Real away in the last el classico were pretty fortunate to do so with two extremely dubious penalties (admittedly Real's penalty - the only one that was a foul, was also well outside the box) and a sending off skewed the result, before the penalties the scores were level and the game could have gone either way. Have to be on Real at the value prices here.

Porto have been the biggest disappointment of the season for me, expected them to win the league, but apart from some early season form, have been disappointing, especially away from home, where they are 1 in 6, mauled by Sevilla 4-1 away in the EL and no chance of doing anything to Benfica's lead in the league, Benfica at 1.91 isn't bad value on its own, but if you take Benfica's last 5 domestic games (drew with Spuds in the EL), results of 2-0, 2-0, 3-0, 3-0 and 4-0 make the asian -1 more of a value call at the odds.
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122011  
Old 16-04-2014, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by saul1664 View Post
I guess you didn't notice Skirtel clearly punch the ball away shortly after, should have been a stonewall pen!
I'd turned the tv off by then but I heard about it after. It didn't help my mood!
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  #122012  
Old 16-04-2014, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by saul1664 View Post
Played the unders in the Juventus game and Reading game on Monday, and somehow both games finished under, Udinese hitting the post and somehow not scoring in the 92nd minute against Juve was painful to watch, always a nightmare when you go under and there is two relatively early goals, have to wait until the 75th minute plus, before you can even think about drawing level, let alone going in front. If I'd played the overs in those games, I'd be cursing my luck right now, but that's the nature of sports betting.
I saw some of that game too, I think had a small bet on Udinese, only to see Juve wipe the floor with them. I thought Udinese looked possible value at long odds with a good home record. The online commentator said something which I've heard before - that in Italy when a team gets a lead, it's not the 'done thing' to humiliate an opponent, so they don't really go looking for more goals (I think he contrasted this with England, where one side would be happy to win 5-0). I think he said this when Juve were 2-0 up. They were basically focussing on skilful defensive possession, having the occasional half-chance, but it didn't really look as though they were trying to hit Udinese on the counter. Udinese looked hopeless until the last 10 minutes when somehow they missed some good chances. I've noticed how often Italian teams seem to win say 1-0 or 2-0. I think I've seen the same pattern in Portugal. They seem to take pleasure in the skill of defending a lead.

So whereas in England, an early goal would often kill an unders bet, in Italy it seems it often won't. If you wanted to exploit this, I suppose you could back 'under 2.5' AFTER an early goal to get the most value. I'm not recommending this, but it's something I've noticed and thought about
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  #122013  
Old 16-04-2014, 01:55 PM
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Interesting. Juventus did look dangerous second half but weren't overstretching themselves, was a little surprised with Udinese, based the unders on the fact that they'd been strong at home, several wins to 0, but seemed a little devoid of ideas throughout the whole game. I've not statistically looked at what you say about the Italian league, but worth looking at.
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
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  #122014  
Old 16-04-2014, 05:24 PM
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Great. Have accidentally done the unders in the Dinamo game and there's an early goal ...
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122015  
Old 16-04-2014, 05:55 PM
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**** it. 2 now. Both prices were 1.98, which is where I've messed up without realising, need to be more careful. Meh.

Just have a quick look at the Darts, able to watch tomorrow, first time for a while and picked a good night.

MVG plays Taylor and Lewis and is 2.24 and 1.81 respectively, which seems more on the generous side.
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122016  
Old 16-04-2014, 06:56 PM
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Always knew this was an unders game lol.
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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  #122017  
Old 17-04-2014, 03:36 PM
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Good stuff last night, the big bets (and prices) landed on the Copa Del Ray, Barcelona were extremely lucky to equalise, Real had their measure from the off playing on the counter and should have been further ahead, but instead of pressing second half, sat deeper and allowed Barca to dominate and didn't mark from a corner, looked set for extra time before Bale's wonder goal (if you haven't seen it, you need to, the speed was phenomenal), still time for Neymar to hit the post in the 91st minute, luck is a tad on my side the past week or so, but Barca didn't deserve anything.

Benfica were too good and landed the handicap despite playing 75% of the match a player down, looked tasty, Porto are in disarray.

Happy to lose on the Palace unders obviously last night, from a betting perspective, lets Arsenal in for 4th, but boosts the top 10 and match bet over hull/cardiff. Plenty of action over the weekend with the snooker starting and everything else, shame at work for all of it, but at least I make the darts tonight.

Backed Lopez against Berdych on the 4.5 games handicap, he's currently smashing him off the park and is going to win outright, so a decent start to the day. Low grade football about, I'd rather not guess but the darts seems to offer reasonable value.

MVG (vs Taylor) @ 2.3
Wright (vs Chisnall) @ 2.16
RVB (vs Thornton) @ 1.99
MVG (vs Lewis) @ 1.82

trebles and 4 folds (4 fold pays about 13/1, the 4 combined about 8 to a 2 point stake)

Think these are overpriced, obviously Taylor has improved a bit since I've been watching, but has had a combination of poor opponents and improved form, his victory over Lewis last time was the best of those, but he's not played anyone near the quality of MVG or RVB who I think are well ahead of the field. Should be a cracking night in any case.
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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Old 18-04-2014, 11:30 AM
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Drew a blank yesterday, MVG beat Lewis, Barney won easily, but Wright was poor (another change of darts) and Taylor outplayed MVG - to be fair his best performance, seems to have slowed down significantly, which is helping his accuracy. I expected his form to tail off towards the end of the PL, but the opposite seems to be happening.

Not interested in the football today.

Wakefield +12 @ 10/11 (betfred)
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There may be something in what you say, Rabbit," he said at last.
"I have been neglecting you. I must move about more. I must come and go."
"That's right, Eeyore. Drop in on any of us at any time, when you feel like it."
"Thank you, Rabbit. And if anyone says in a Loud Voice 'Bother, it's Eeyore,' I can drop out again."

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Old 18-04-2014, 07:05 PM
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Anybody know the Cardiff team for tomorrow?
Not sure whether to back them or not.
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Old 18-04-2014, 07:12 PM
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Originally Posted by mart63 View Post
Anybody know the Cardiff team for tomorrow?
Not sure whether to back them or not.
Dougie knows.

Got a treble on Burnley, Derby, and Athletico today to give me some added interest in watching the games. Come on Derby!
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