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  #57321  
Old 17-12-2017, 10:30 PM
Hpalace Hpalace is offline
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Originally Posted by Les Butler View Post


All this crap is why you got Brexit.
Sorry Les but this is a load of crap.

We ‘got’ brexit because people want to reduce immigration and have less foreigners. Furious Barnsley with 1.5% of the population (in 2011) from the EU.

The average school year cluttered with 2 Eu immigrants. It must be awful for those other 138 parents to have to bump into 2 Eu parents at pick up ruining our ‘culture’.

That shitty polish section in Sainsburys with hardly anyone ever there or the 1 polish shop in Bromley ruining the high street. Simply awful.
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  #57322  
Old 17-12-2017, 10:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Les Butler View Post
I would say one is working class and the other is middle class which you are as such, a boss in your middle-class home in the suburbs giving it large to the great unwashed about sweeping up....Dunno mate I thought you were a bit more than that.
But Biggin isn’t working class Les. He got a lump sum and a pension three times that of his nemesis Mik, who you would no doubt describe as middle class.

And Coney Hall is about as middle class as you could get. I think you’re confusing yourself.

You’ve got a chip on your shoulder about class. Sad to see.

I only ever give it to Biggles about sweeping up when he gives it out first. Take a look.
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  #57323  
Old 17-12-2017, 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
Sorry Les but this is a load of crap.

We ‘got’ brexit because people want to reduce immigration and have less foreigners. Furious Barnsley with 1.5% of the population (in 2011) from the EU.

The average school year cluttered with 2 Eu immigrants. It must be awful for those other 138 parents to have to bump into 2 Eu parents at pick up ruining our ‘culture’.

That shitty polish section in Sainsburys with hardly anyone ever there or the 1 polish shop in Bromley ruining the high street. Simply awful.
So so predictable .
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  #57324  
Old 17-12-2017, 10:39 PM
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Hows your bro ??
You asked me that the other day, and i answered you dumb f🤘ck
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  #57325  
Old 17-12-2017, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by racehorse-80s View Post
So so predictable .
Yes it is.
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  #57326  
Old 17-12-2017, 10:46 PM
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I think Cockney should read this .

The former President of YouGov and leading political commentator, Peter Kellner, has written a comprehensive note about the BMG poll for the Indy which has Remain 10% ahead to a question of how those sampled would vote in a future referendum. In his look at the BMG numbers Kellner notes:

“First, they are mainly driven by a seemingly huge shift in people who did not vote in last year’s referendum. Sure, the Remain camp is being swelled by young adults who abstained last time or were not old enough to vote. But previous BMG polls included this phenomenon. During the summer, when previous non-voters were asked how they would vote in a fresh referendum, they divided fairly steadily: around 45% Remain, 25% Leave. Now, suddenly, BMG say the divide is 67%- 16%. As this group comprises more than a fifth of BMG’s total weighted sample (299 out of 1,363), this 51-point Remain lead within this group accounts for the whole of the reported overall Remain lead.

However, BMG did not actually interview 299 previous non-voters. Its unweighted subsample was barely half that: 156. The margin of error on such a subsample is large – and the very fact that BMG could not track down as many non-voters as it wanted, provides a clear warning (as I know from my experience at YouGov) that the sub-sample may not be as representative as one would like.

Secondly, if it were true that, despite these sampling issues, there had been a sharp shift among non-voters to Remain, there would be some echo of this among other groups. In particular, one would expect to see clear signs of growing buyers’ remorse among Leave voters. That wouldn’t apply to hardline anti-EU voters – something like two thirds of those who voted Leave 18 months ago. But it would be likely to have some effect on the one-third who were “instrumental” voters: people who are not viscerally anti-EU, but believed that Brexit held the best hope of more jobs, higher pay, less crime, a better-funded NHS and improved access to public services such as local schools and social housing.

The point is that any weakening of these pro-Brexit arguments that is liable to shift large numbers of non-voters into the Remain camp, should also produce some shift among the “instrumental” Leave voters. But BMG’s figures produce no evidence of this. There is no statistically significant rise in buyers’ remorse among Leave voters in this poll compared with previous BMG polls.

The third reason to doubt that BMG’s figures reflect a public reaction to last weeks’ Government defeat in the House of Commons is that the poll was conducted before the vote. Its fieldwork dates were December 5-8 – that is the week before last.

Fourthly, other polls within the past fortnight show no indication of a lurch to Remain. Two YouGov surveys and one ICM poll indicate that nothing much has changed in recent weeks, despite the turbulence surrounding the events leading to the EU’s decision to allow Brexit negotiations to move to stage two. They are consistent with a narrow Remain lead, compared with a narrow Leave lead before this year’s general election. Over the past six months, as I discussed in a recent blog, there has been a small shift to Remain, but only a small shift.

To say this is not in any way to denigrate the quality of BMG’s work. Small subsamples of hard-to-reach groups must always be examined with care, for they are liable to trip up even the best research companies. BMG seem to have been unlucky, not culpable.

The larger point is one that applies to enthusiasts on any side of any issue. It is important to resist the temptation to cherry-pick those polls and findings that support one’s case, and ignore those that don’t. Remember the warning of those great 20th century philosophers, Simon and Garfunkel, in The Boxer: “All lies and jest: a man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest”.
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Last edited by racehorse-80s; 17-12-2017 at 10:49 PM.
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  #57327  
Old 17-12-2017, 10:46 PM
Hpalace Hpalace is offline
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Originally Posted by racehorse-80s View Post
So so predictable .
Oh. Sorry was les right and people voted for brexit because middle class people took the piss out of cleaners?

Every single person to a man and woman I have met before and after voted to reduce immigration. Every single one.

Not one voted against neo liberalism in the Eu or to reduce house prices so that they don’t have to help their kids out. Ironically every single one of them are from a middle class bubble where their jobs are unaffected by Eu immigration and their areas are largely unaffected by Eu immigration. They simply felt we needed less.

Why? Religious indoctrination by the press, personal beliefs and fear of change. The same people who hark back to how the uk ‘used’ to be a better place before globalisation.

It isn’t/wasn’t racism imop but it certainly was wanting the uk to go back in time. The brexit god must deliver this time paradox or 17 million people will remain moving forwards when they just want to shift to reverse.
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  #57328  
Old 17-12-2017, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by racehorse-80s View Post
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I think Cockney should read this .

The former President of YouGov and leading political commentator, Peter Kellner, has written a comprehensive note about the BMG poll for the Indy which has Remain 10% ahead to a question of how those sampled would vote in a future referendum. In his look at the BMG numbers Kellner notes:

“First, they are mainly driven by a seemingly huge shift in people who did not vote in last year’s referendum. Sure, the Remain camp is being swelled by young adults who abstained last time or were not old enough to vote. But previous BMG polls included this phenomenon. During the summer, when previous non-voters were asked how they would vote in a fresh referendum, they divided fairly steadily: around 45% Remain, 25% Leave. Now, suddenly, BMG say the divide is 67%- 16%. As this group comprises more than a fifth of BMG’s total weighted sample (299 out of 1,363), this 51-point Remain lead within this group accounts for the whole of the reported overall Remain lead.

However, BMG did not actually interview 299 previous non-voters. Its unweighted subsample was barely half that: 156. The margin of error on such a subsample is large – and the very fact that BMG could not track down as many non-voters as it wanted, provides a clear warning (as I know from my experience at YouGov) that the sub-sample may not be as representative as one would like.

Secondly, if it were true that, despite these sampling issues, there had been a sharp shift among non-voters to Remain, there would be some echo of this among other groups. In particular, one would expect to see clear signs of growing buyers’ remorse among Leave voters. That wouldn’t apply to hardline anti-EU voters – something like two thirds of those who voted Leave 18 months ago. But it would be likely to have some effect on the one-third who were “instrumental” voters: people who are not viscerally anti-EU, but believed that Brexit held the best hope of more jobs, higher pay, less crime, a better-funded NHS and improved access to public services such as local schools and social housing.

The point is that any weakening of these pro-Brexit arguments that is liable to shift large numbers of non-voters into the Remain camp, should also produce some shift among the “instrumental” Leave voters. But BMG’s figures produce no evidence of this. There is no statistically significant rise in buyers’ remorse among Leave voters in this poll compared with previous BMG polls.

The third reason to doubt that BMG’s figures reflect a public reaction to last weeks’ Government defeat in the House of Commons is that the poll was conducted before the vote. Its fieldwork dates were December 5-8 – that is the week before last.

Fourthly, other polls within the past fortnight show no indication of a lurch to Remain. Two YouGov surveys and one ICM poll indicate that nothing much has changed in recent weeks, despite the turbulence surrounding the events leading to the EU’s decision to allow Brexit negotiations to move to stage two. They are consistent with a narrow Remain lead, compared with a narrow Leave lead before this year’s general election. Over the past six months, as I discussed in a recent blog, there has been a small shift to Remain, but only a small shift.

To say this is not in any way to denigrate the quality of BMG’s work. Small subsamples of hard-to-reach groups must always be examined with care, for they are liable to trip up even the best research companies. BMG seem to have been unlucky, not culpable.

The larger point is one that applies to enthusiasts on any side of any issue. It is important to resist the temptation to cherry-pick those polls and findings that support one’s case, and ignore those that don’t. Remember the warning of those great 20th century philosophers, Simon and Garfunkel, in The Boxer: “All lies and jest: a man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest”.
that's really nasty of you to post that, you've ruined SE25 Exile's Christmas
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  #57329  
Old 17-12-2017, 10:54 PM
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Originally Posted by boxthorncutter View Post
that's really nasty of you to post that, you've ruined SE25 Exile's Christmas
The poll is obviously pro-EU and fake news .
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  #57330  
Old 17-12-2017, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
A slim majority want to be part of the uk
A slim minority want to be part of a United Ireland
A significant majority are happy to be in the UK within the framework of the GFA.
No majority want the Uk to leave the EU in NI

Now if it were that simple it could be left there. If this was about whether or not we have a conservative or a labour government, or about the uk declaring war against an independent nation, trident, tax, the nhs etc etc then I quite agree.

Unfortunately it’s not that simple. In the event that a border goes up a significant minority will be very very unhappy. Within that minority, if history is used as a framework to foresee what will happen, there will be people willing to restart the troubles.

It only needs a catalyst to relight the flames. A border would be such a catalyst.

When you cut people off from their national identity, their families, their sick granny, their civil rights; telling them to suck it up for ‘democracy’ or ‘get over it you lost’ will simply not wash.

So yes. Potentially, in the event of no deal, you have voted to land a very wet shit, a steaming wet shit on your fellow citizens. I appreciate this may have been done in ignorance but a steaming wet shit of a vote it was.
I understand what you are saying and I would hate a rekindle if the troubles for all the people’s lives that are affected, the lovely people who liv both sides of the border as well as the troops that have to police them.

However I do believe in democracy and I do believe that what the British government does or does not get decided because of how terrorists will act if they disagree with what they do based on what their majority of voters (however small)ask them to do.

I am no expert on this but I see that there has to be a hard border either between NI and mainland UK or between NI and IRE purely from my ill informed opinion this should be between mainland and NI as this would have the smallest impact to the people who live in NI. I also fail to see how this would be a massive problem but as I said I am not an expert in this.

I voted leave if I voted tomorrow I would probably vote remain, the leave I voted for was a total exit not this bullshit half hearted exit where nothing changes apart from it being harder to trade and we get no say in anything and France get to royally fist us anyway.
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  #57331  
Old 17-12-2017, 11:14 PM
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You have just voted along with 17 million others to potentially change those current arrangements forcibly and against the democratic will of the citizens of NI.

At present it would appear the withdrawal agreement will protect those arrangements, if we don’t get a deal however 17 million have just released an almighty wet poo upon their fellow citizens so that they could get freedom from freedom of movement.

So I’m not whinging, at the moment.

The vote was UK wide, there was no special vote for NI or anyone else. Your point is irrelevant.
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  #57332  
Old 17-12-2017, 11:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
.................................................. ..............................It only needs a catalyst to relight the flames. A border would be such a catalyst.

When you cut people off from their national identity, their families, their sick granny, their civil rights; telling them to suck it up for ‘democracy’ or ‘get over it you lost’ will simply not wash.

...............................
Calm down dear no one is looking to reintroduce the border.
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  #57333  
Old 17-12-2017, 11:24 PM
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Sorry Les but this is a load of crap.

We ‘got’ brexit because people want to reduce immigration and have less foreigners. Furious Barnsley with 1.5% of the population (in 2011) from the EU.
What horsehit this is crap that remainers sprout there is no evidence to back it up.

The only true fact as to why we are leaving the EU is because more people voted for us to leave than did for us to stay anything else is subjective.

This is the one point that nearly made me vote remain a large percentage of my staff are non UK EU citizens in fact my best staff and it makes me angry when ignorant fools tell me the reason I voted to leave.
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  #57334  
Old 17-12-2017, 11:27 PM
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I understand what you are saying and I would hate a rekindle if the troubles for all the people’s lives that are affected, the lovely people who liv both sides of the border as well as the troops that have to police them.

However I do believe in democracy and I do believe that what the British government does or does not get decided because of how terrorists will act if they disagree with what they do based on what their majority of voters (however small)ask them to do.

I am no expert on this but I see that there has to be a hard border either between NI and mainland UK or between NI and IRE purely from my ill informed opinion this should be between mainland and NI as this would have the smallest impact to the people who live in NI. I also fail to see how this would be a massive problem but as I said I am not an expert in this.

I voted leave if I voted tomorrow I would probably vote remain, the leave I voted for was a total exit not this bullshit half hearted exit where nothing changes apart from it being harder to trade and we get no say in anything and France get to royally fist us anyway.
I believe in a representative democracy. While I am more knowledgable than most on NI due to being northern Irish and specialising my degree in it I wouldn’t expect a banker, an Uber driver or a plasterer to have specialised knowledge in specific areas. Why would they? Therefore rule by plebiscite is stupid.

As you rightly pointed out the (slim) majority in NI want NI to remain a member of the UK. That majority will not agree with a hard border in the sea. You simply reverse the angst from PIRA to the UVF and the UDA. This is not about giving into terrorists. This is about re-in forcing scenarios on civillians that are unacceptable to civillians. Some of these civillians take up arms but forcing scenarios on any of your fellow citizens that oppress their agreed rights is really a shitty thing to do.

I appreciate what you say re voting remain given the chance again but I should point out that the brexit you describe is the hard brexit that would certainly start the troubles again.

I don’t know where you live but can you imagine everyone south of the river being told they could no longer go north of the river without going through security and customs check points. Hours and hours to go and see you sick mum? On top of that all of a sudden people start blowing shit up in protest?

I would imagine you would think the will of the plebiscite was a massive wet shit.
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  #57335  
Old 17-12-2017, 11:27 PM
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The BMG poll with Remain now 10 points ahead is fascinating, all the more so because BMG got the referendum result right.

Their write up here

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  #57336  
Old 17-12-2017, 11:28 PM
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The vote was UK wide, there was no special vote for NI or anyone else. Your point is irrelevant.
It’s not. You want it to be but it’s not.
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  #57337  
Old 17-12-2017, 11:29 PM
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Calm down dear no one is looking to reintroduce the border.
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Anyone that wants to leave the customs union wants to reintroduce the border.

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Old 17-12-2017, 11:31 PM
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What horsehit this is crap that remainers sprout there is no evidence to back it up.

The only true fact as to why we are leaving the EU is because more people voted for us to leave than did for us to stay anything else is subjective.

This is the one point that nearly made me vote remain a large percentage of my staff are non UK EU citizens in fact my best staff and it makes me angry when ignorant fools tell me the reason I voted to leave.
There are exceptions to every rule. Racey voted to make house prices come down.

It’s widely accepted and acknowledged by the government that freedom from FOM was the main cause of the vote.
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Old 17-12-2017, 11:32 PM
Skintagain Skintagain is offline
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
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Really, you mentioned this before, its July 2000. What he's saying now is what's relevant.
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Old 17-12-2017, 11:37 PM
Hpalace Hpalace is offline
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Originally Posted by Skintagain View Post
Really, you mentioned this before, its July 2000. What he's saying now is what's relevant.
Any evidence he has changed his opinion?

“"There are people who naturally felt as I did, discomfort, there is a moral question about someone who had been engaged in terrorism should be in office and I found that very difficult to take.

“"I have clear principles and one of my principles is I believe in the integrity of our United Kingdom, I don't like the idea that we should be allowing our country to be influenced by a terrorist campaign and I believe that in standing up for the unity of our kingdom and standing up against violence and intimidation, I'm standing up for the values of the majority of people share."“
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He hasn’t.

Leaving a customs union - as you wish - means borders. That is unless you want to leave the WTO as well?
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