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  #4781  
Old 16-04-2018, 03:35 PM
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I’ve got a £20 bet with a bloke at work that Palace will finish above West Ham so I am in two minds.
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  #4782  
Old 16-04-2018, 03:41 PM
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Originally Posted by EdMan View Post
I just read somewhere that we need one more win for safety. Is that right ?
Max points currently available to be won by the main contenders :-

West Ham 52
Brighton 50
Swansea 48
Huddersfield 47
Palace 46
Southampton 43
Stoke 42
West Brom 36

The position will become a little clearer after the midweek fixtures but mathematic certainty is still some way off yet.
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  #4783  
Old 16-04-2018, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by RAB View Post
Max points currently available to be won by the main contenders :-

West Ham 52
Brighton 50
Swansea 48
Huddersfield 47
Palace 46
Southampton 43
Stoke 42
West Brom 36

The position will become a little clearer after the midweek fixtures but mathematic certainty is still some way off yet.
And people want stoke to win tonight.. seriously odd. They lose tonight that becomes 39
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  #4784  
Old 16-04-2018, 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted by RAB View Post
Max points currently available to be won by the main contenders :-

West Ham 52
Brighton 50
Swansea 48
Huddersfield 47
Palace 46
Southampton 43
Stoke 42
West Brom 36

The position will become a little clearer after the midweek fixtures but mathematic certainty is still some way off yet.
That doesn't factor in the fact that teams are playing each other?
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  #4785  
Old 16-04-2018, 03:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAB View Post
Max points currently available to be won by the main contenders :-

West Ham 52
Brighton 50
Swansea 48
Huddersfield 47
Palace 46
Southampton 43
Stoke 42
West Brom 36

The position will become a little clearer after the midweek fixtures but mathematic certainty is still some way off yet.
Swansea play Stoke and Southampton, so their maximum points if Stoke and Southampton win out is 42. Of course, they could also beat Stoke which would put them at 45.
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  #4786  
Old 16-04-2018, 03:51 PM
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If you want to know what can happen, when then To view the link you have to Register or Login website is basically a giant multi-path analysis of all possible permutations for the mathematical certainties.

It shows that the earliest we can be guaranteed as safe is after the Leicester game, and that we could be relegated after the Stoke match - and if you drill down you can see what results would be needed for each to happen by that point.
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  #4787  
Old 16-04-2018, 03:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAB View Post
Max points currently available to be won by the main contenders :-

West Ham 52
Brighton 50
Swansea 48
Huddersfield 47
Palace 46
Southampton 43
Stoke 42
West Brom 36

The position will become a little clearer after the midweek fixtures but mathematic certainty is still some way off yet.
We need to gain 10 points as it stands by either us gaining points or the others dropping points

The three teams in the relegation zone if they lose their next games and we win things look so much better with the following the result

West Brom : cant finish above us
Stoke: we would need to pick up 6 more points (not taking GD into account)
Southampton We would need to pick up 7 more points

If we beat Watford Stoke would have to beat Burnley on Sunday to have any chance be able to finish above us and Southampton would need to basically win every game they have left

On they above alone anyone wanting Stoke to win tonight are mental
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  #4788  
Old 16-04-2018, 03:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thefunkymonk View Post
And people want stoke to win tonight.. seriously odd. They lose tonight that becomes 39
Exactly.

A draw putting them to 40 wouldn't be terrible, but to suggest a win for Stoke is a favourable outcome for us is rather bizarre!

Although, if we end up completely safe and finish behind West Ham by a point, then this post will disappear
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  #4789  
Old 16-04-2018, 04:09 PM
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The risk in what we gain from 'possibly' finishing a place or two higher is no way worth risking and the stress of relegation hanging over our heads. Any 3 teams, I don't give a f--k, go down......and pronto!
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  #4790  
Old 16-04-2018, 04:13 PM
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  #4791  
Old 16-04-2018, 04:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WLYWLYAWYPWF View Post
That doesn't factor in the fact that teams are playing each other?
It doesn't factor in anything.

This thread is bursting with mind blowing permutations and statistics. Some forecasts, including the latest betting odds are very encouraging for Palace. It is though worth remembering that Palace rarely do things the easy way. We will probably need the help of others.

Regarding the betting odds, it just goes to show how one match for us changed things so much. Instead of being currently on offer, if you can still get it, at 25/1 to drop we'd probably now be 4/1. Brighton, had they won would have 38 points and realistically be safe. Instead they are now faced with the most daunting set of final fixtures amongst all the other relegation battlers.

Considering the number of games left for so many teams involved (even West Brom in a sort of final death thrash) in this crazy season, those 25/1 odds will either not be seen again or should results all go Palace's way, including Palace winning at Watford, that current 200/1 on offer for Watford will switch to Palace. Maybe even wider as by then the finish line will be that much closer and 37 points will make the action of betting on a Palace relegation virtually the same as chucking money away.

At the moment, I'd see a bet at 25/1 as a sacrifice to the football gods for deliverance.
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  #4792  
Old 16-04-2018, 04:22 PM
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Not sure how relevant this is to anything but thought I'd have a quick look what the table would look like if only the bottom 11 teams were in it... so basically it's excluding any results against teams above Newcastle. Guess it does show our form against the teams around us hasn't been very good. I didn't look at goal difference so it's just based on points/games.

1. Newcastle - Played 18, 30 points
2. Brighton - Played 20, 30 points
3. Huddersfield - Played 20, 29 points
4. West Ham - Played 19, 28 points
5. Bournemouth - Played 18, 27 points
6. Watford - Played 18, 23 points
7. Palace - Played 17, 22 points
8= Stoke - Played 17, 21 points
8= Swansea - Played 17, 21 points
10. Southampton - Played 18, 21 points
11. West Brom - Played 18, 12 points
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  #4793  
Old 16-04-2018, 04:24 PM
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If WHU lose tonight and its a big if will Arsenal get away with playing a weak team v them as it becomes a key game in a relegation battle.
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  #4794  
Old 16-04-2018, 04:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bodger View Post
If WHU lose tonight and its a big if will Arsenal get away with playing a weak team v them as it becomes a key game in a relegation battle.
Depends what you mean by ‘get away with’?

If you mean will the league sanction them in any way, the answer seems to be no. They’ve played a second string before.....as long as they are players from the Arsenal squad, they can pick who they like.
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  #4795  
Old 16-04-2018, 04:41 PM
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Going through stoke and saints fixtures giving them better than expected results, including us losing to stoke I had them both on 35 points. We should be able to get the 2 points needed for safety without too much hassle
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  #4796  
Old 16-04-2018, 04:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bodger View Post
If WHU lose tonight and its a big if will Arsenal get away with playing a weak team v them as it becomes a key game in a relegation battle.
Arsenal's strong team play like tossers anyway.
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  #4797  
Old 16-04-2018, 04:52 PM
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That would assume we lose 4 in a row which is in most peoples books incredibly unlikely.
I take it losing 7 in a row without scoring is an impossibility.

Last 2 seasons we won one and lost three of our last four games.
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Old 16-04-2018, 04:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Olympian2 View Post
Buy a prolific striker. Aim for Europe. Jeeeez, it ain't rocket science, is it?
One step at a time. Buy a prolific striker. Aim for a comfortable mid-table position. Don't even have a 'Relegation Avoidance Calculator 18/19' thread.
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Old 16-04-2018, 04:58 PM
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If you want to know what can happen, when then To view the link you have to Register or Login website is basically a giant multi-path analysis of all possible permutations for the mathematical certainties.

It shows that the earliest we can be guaranteed as safe is after the Leicester game, and that we could be relegated after the Stoke match - and if you drill down you can see what results would be needed for each to happen by that point.
Great... beating Brighton means they can not qualify for Europe
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Old 16-04-2018, 05:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAB View Post
Max points currently available to be won by the main contenders :-

West Ham 52
Brighton 50
Swansea 48
Huddersfield 47
Palace 46
Southampton 43
Stoke 42
West Brom 36

The position will become a little clearer after the midweek fixtures but mathematic certainty is still some way off yet.
With some of the fixtures to come, those points totals, can't be achieved.

Butyour post made good reading. Thanks.
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