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  #981  
Old 14-07-2016, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by JDawg View Post
Here's one for the Brexiters. Bloomberg run a series of scenarios on European banks. We're aware of going on at Monte Paschi, the Italian banking system, and Germany' intransigence. Well BBG pointed out that Deutsche Bank is trading at 25% of book value (fallen out of love or a mis-marked balance sheet?) and is odds on to be the next bank swallowed up - possibly by Barclays. Speculation of course, but how would Germany react to DB getting into difficulty and how does this foot with its attitude to the financial system elsewhere?
Barclays share price has been so poor in recent years that I doubt they will taking over Deutsche Bank.
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  #982  
Old 14-07-2016, 10:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
Barclays share price has been so poor in recent years that I doubt they will taking over Deutsche Bank.
No one is going to buy it, it's going to collapse unless the German Government takes it over.

Last edited by palacea; 14-07-2016 at 10:10 AM.
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  #983  
Old 14-07-2016, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Mat ov CPFC View Post
The EU dances to Germanys tune, especially when it comes to economics and especially now.
So what was the ******* point in Brexit when we could sort everything out with a nice cosy chat in Berlin?
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  #984  
Old 14-07-2016, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by palacea View Post
No one is going to buy it, it's going to collapse unless the German Government takes it over.
The article also suggested Santander or JP Morgan end up taking it over. German domestic banking went ex-growth years ago which is part of the reason that Commerzbank and Dresdner Bank were amalgamated. Deutsche has an investment banking presence which the others don't really, but you know how volatile the risks and returns from that can be. So it's on the block.
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  #985  
Old 14-07-2016, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted by JDawg View Post
The article also suggested Santander or JP Morgan end up taking it over. German domestic banking went ex-growth years ago which is part of the reason that Commerzbank and Dresdner Bank were amalgamated. Deutsche has an investment banking presence which the others don't really, but you know how volatile the risks and returns from that can be. So it's on the block.
30 Trillion derivative debt, is a big block.
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  #986  
Old 14-07-2016, 11:22 AM
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Interest rates held:

Bank: Brexit vote is now hurting the economy


The Bank of England’s agents, who work across the UK, are seeing signs that the economy is weakening.

It says:



Official data on economic activity covering the period since the referendum are not yet available. However, there are preliminary signs that the result has affected sentiment among households and companies, with sharp falls in some measures of business and consumer confidence.

And the BoE singles out the housing market as a significant concern:



Early indications from surveys and from contacts of the Bank’s Agents suggest that some businesses are beginning to delay investment projects and postpone recruitment decisions. Regarding the housing market, survey data point to a significant weakening in expected activity. Taken together, these indicators suggest economic activity is likely to weaken in the near term.
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  #987  
Old 14-07-2016, 12:39 PM
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Brexit recession 'could increase unemployment rate to equivalent of 500,000 lost jobs'
Britain’s vote to leave the EU will plunge the country into a shallow recession in the second half 2016, which could see the unemployment rate rise to 6.5 per cent, the equivalent of around 500,000 jobs.

In a gloomy analyst note titled “Mayday! Mayday!”, Credit Suisse cut its GDP forecast to 1 per cent down from 1.8 in 2016. It also said the unemployment rate could rise from 5 per cent to 6.5 per cent.
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  #988  
Old 14-07-2016, 12:49 PM
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social media is just a seething mass of gloomy articles posted by indignant Remoaners desperate to be proven correct compared to those thicky Brexiters who were so desperately lied to and are all praying that the Establishment will have a second vote so they can be absolved of their terrible stupidness


(ps - CS will be massively short on the UK so will be desperate for bad news when it happens whenever it happens )
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  #989  
Old 14-07-2016, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by N Herts Eagle View Post
My daughter works of the local council one of her roles regards care homes, around here 75% of staff are from the EU. As an industry there could be some very serious issues involving staffing.
.
I manage approximately 105 care staff working within the county council, 65% are not from the UK. We are going to have serious issues in a few years time. Add to this the increase in costs form the living wage (a good thing of course) and the cuts in social care funding which dwarfs the 2% precept in council tax for adult social care & things don't look good.
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  #990  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by catty View Post
I manage approximately 105 care staff working within the county council, 65% are not from the UK. We are going to have serious issues in a few years time. Add to this the increase in costs form the living wage (a good thing of course) and the cuts in social care funding which dwarfs the 2% precept in council tax for adult social care & things don't look good.
Shouldn't be hard to replace them with leave voters who blame everything on 'the immigrants' should it.
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  #991  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:04 PM
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Shouldn't be hard to replace them with leave voters who blame everything on 'the immigrants' should it.
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  #992  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by elgin eagle View Post
Shouldn't be hard to replace them with leave voters who blame everything on 'the immigrants' should it.
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  #993  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by elgin eagle View Post
Shouldn't be hard to replace them with leave voters who blame everything on 'the immigrants' should it.
Change the record. The premise that all 17M brexiteers are racists is BS. It now seems that a high percentage labour voters voted out.

My wife has a degree, her company moved, she trained the replacements in the new lab and the overflow 3rd party lab (total of 20 -25 people). 33% east European. She was on the dole for 5 months. The jobs on offer were at entry level money. She has now taken a local job on a 40% lower salary in the same field. 33% of her new company are east European. The supervisor is polish as it makes communication easier!!!

How's that beneficial to the country? We lost my wifes tax, paid her dole money, and now in her new job she pays half as much tax/NI.

There are university leavers not even getting interviews.

How is that sensible?

Employer policy seems to be: Lets get someone that knows the job on half the money instead of someone we have to train!

Its the economics of the insane.

Since brexit my own company has tripled the apprentice intake (I was told last week as I'm to be mentor for my modality). That is what we should be doing training the young.

Yes we need immigration but not to replace those already in jobs because they are cheaper which has been happening.

QED.
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  #994  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by delboy01 View Post
Change the record. The premise that all 17M brexiteers are racists is BS. It now seems that a high percentage labour voters voted out.
.
About 35% of usual Labour voters, in an average of most surveys. For what that is worth. But there is a fair point in what you write I should say.
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  #995  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDawg View Post
Here's one for the Brexiters. Bloomberg run a series of scenarios on European banks. We're aware of going on at Monte Paschi, the Italian banking system, and Germany' intransigence. Well BBG pointed out that Deutsche Bank is trading at 25% of book value (fallen out of love or a mis-marked balance sheet?) and is odds on to be the next bank swallowed up - possibly by Barclays. Speculation of course, but how would Germany react to DB getting into difficulty and how does this foot with its attitude to the financial system elsewhere?
Not even noticed how low the DB share price had fallen. Just glad I decided to cash in my employee shares when I left in 2012!
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  #996  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by elgin eagle View Post
Shouldn't be hard to replace them with leave voters who blame everything on 'the immigrants' should it.
I forgot about them, I'm sure we'll be swamped with applications! Its not like we are constantly hiring anyway...
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  #997  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:33 PM
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  #998  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by cdm61 View Post
Brexit recession 'could increase unemployment rate to equivalent of 500,000 lost jobs'
Britain’s vote to leave the EU will plunge the country into a shallow recession in the second half 2016, which could see the unemployment rate rise to 6.5 per cent, the equivalent of around 500,000 jobs.

In a gloomy analyst note titled “Mayday! Mayday!”, Credit Suisse cut its GDP forecast to 1 per cent down from 1.8 in 2016. It also said the unemployment rate could rise from 5 per cent to 6.5 per cent.
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Unemployment in the EU

Greece 24%
Spain 20%
Croatia 13.5%
Cyprus 12%
Portugal 12%
Italy 11.5%
France 10%


Only 3 EU countries have lower unemployment than us.

We have never had higher employment.

Predictions are just that. They predicted a hung parliament they predicted remain. Today they predicted a rate cut. (I said not this month) 'Experts' 0 me 1.

There are things that we can do to boast the economy that the EU can't.
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  #999  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by delboy01 View Post
Change the record. The premise that all 17M brexiteers are racists is BS. It now seems that a high percentage labour voters voted out.

My wife has a degree, her company moved, she trained the replacements in the new lab and the overflow 3rd party lab (total of 20 -25 people). 33% east European. She was on the dole for 5 months. The jobs on offer were at entry level money. She has now taken a local job on a 40% lower salary in the same field. 33% of her new company are east European. The supervisor is polish as it makes communication easier!!!

How's that beneficial to the country? We lost my wifes tax, paid her dole money, and now in her new job she pays half as much tax/NI.

There are university leavers not even getting interviews.

How is that sensible?

Employer policy seems to be: Lets get someone that knows the job on half the money instead of someone we have to train!

Its the economics of the insane.

Since brexit my own company has tripled the apprentice intake (I was told last week as I'm to be mentor for my modality). That is what we should be doing training the young.

Yes we need immigration but not to replace those already in jobs because they are cheaper which has been happening.

QED.
My wife is a carer of old folk. Where we live, care work and hotel housekeeping work are the only major work that is always available. Locals 'won't get out of bed' for it. The old people like her because she is 'gentler'. When the fruit starts dying on the trees again will you admit that the major social problems in this country are ignorance, xenophobia, racism and laziness?
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  #1000  
Old 14-07-2016, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by catty View Post
I forgot about them, I'm sure we'll be swamped with applications! Its not like we are constantly hiring anyway...
I wouldn't wait by the phone catty!
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