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  #941  
Old 12-07-2016, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by maestro View Post
The FTSE 100 is flying and the FTSE 250 has now recovered to pre referendum levels

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  #942  
Old 12-07-2016, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Biggineagle View Post
Carney gets a grilling from MPs today. Hope he doesnt talk the country and the markets down again. Maybe they will ask him what happened to his pre referendum predicted interest rate increases post Brexit ?
Aren't we still pre Brexit though?
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  #943  
Old 12-07-2016, 10:52 AM
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Aren't we still pre Brexit though?
I spose so
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  #944  
Old 12-07-2016, 10:53 AM
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Aren't we still pre Brexit though?
Yes we are. The damage that has been done by the vote was never going to hit in one initial and single shock. As time goes by, and events happen to determine the actual and ongoing damage, we shall see more clearly. This is going to be a long haul, and it is going to get much worse before it gets any better again.
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  #945  
Old 12-07-2016, 10:57 AM
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Aren't we still pre Brexit though?
exactly.
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  #946  
Old 12-07-2016, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by SE25 exile View Post
Yes we are. The damage that has been done by the vote was never going to hit in one initial and single shock. As time goes by, and events happen to determine the actual and ongoing damage, we shall see more clearly. This is going to be a long haul, and it is going to get much worse before it gets any better again.
I thought it wasn't going to get better? So you agree that overall in the long term it's for the best? Welcome aboard
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  #947  
Old 12-07-2016, 11:46 AM
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Things gone up past two days due to the PM uncertainty being resolved. That will last another day or so into Theresa’s PM’ture then uncertainty will reign again. GBP/USD will slip to 1.25 and possibly 1.20. As they try and unravel this mess.

Markets hate uncertainty. And Brexit negatively effects the security in certain markets and will do for the next few years. And nobody will know where the bottom will be - we are in totally new territory.

The FTSE isn’t the key to macro-blips like this. It’s the safest banker to trend up for eternity, in general.
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  #948  
Old 12-07-2016, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by eagle mart View Post
Things gone up past two days due to the PM uncertainty being resolved. That will last another day or so into Theresa’s PM’ture then uncertainty will reign again. GBP/USD will slip to 1.25 and possibly 1.20. As they try and unravel this mess.


Surely though, given our balance of payments, sterling has been over-valued for a while now and that the Bank of England has been trying to devalue it for a period of months?
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  #949  
Old 12-07-2016, 12:42 PM
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Siemens seem to have changed their mind
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  #950  
Old 12-07-2016, 12:47 PM
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Siemens seem to have changed their mind
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not really
"The company has insisted this investment will continue and will be used to meet local demand, but Mr Kaeser said new trade barriers could make it uneconomical to export the blades to Denmark and Germany. "
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  #951  
Old 12-07-2016, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted by weltklasse View Post
not really
"The company has insisted this investment will continue and will be used to meet local demand, but Mr Kaeser said new trade barriers could make it uneconomical to export the blades to Denmark and Germany. "
I see. So German companies are set against trade barriers then. Excellent. Should make sitting down at a table to come up with a deal a nice and easy affair then given that British companies also do not want any trade barriers.

I suspect that Brexit is going to be a whole lot more amicable than you might like.
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  #952  
Old 12-07-2016, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Mat ov CPFC View Post
I see. So German companies are set against trade barriers then. Excellent. Should make sitting down at a table to come up with a deal a nice and easy affair then given that British companies also do not want any trade barriers.

I suspect that Brexit is going to be a whole lot more amicable than you might like.
Mat -despite your best efforts over many years you have no idea what i like. Also Siemens are producing wind turbines in Germany anyway.

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  #953  
Old 12-07-2016, 01:47 PM
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Mat -despite your best efforts over many years you have no idea what i like. Also Siemens are producing wind turbines in Germany anyway.

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And best of British to them. A German company investing in Germany makes perfectly logical sense.

But it strikes me that the message coming from German industry is that they have zero appetite for any sort of trade barriers/tarriffs to be put in place following our departure from the EU, mirroring the attitude of many over here.

So that seems a key issue that can be dealt with very simply. Probably done and dusted inside the time it takes to exchange a metaphorical handshake.

Next item please.
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  #954  
Old 12-07-2016, 04:27 PM
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Next item please.

....a debate on a second referendum to be held in September.
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  #955  
Old 12-07-2016, 05:10 PM
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I attended a presentation by our chief economist last week. The revised 2017 forecasts post-Brexit are - pre-Brexit in ( ):

- GDP 1.5% (2.6)
- Base Rate 0% (0.5 / 1.00)
- unemployment 6.2% (5.5)
- corporate investment -3.5 (0.5)

His view of GBP:USD is that it will fluctuate before settling somewhere between 1.30 and 1.40.

So, there are dangers of us talking or worrying ourselves into recession when in fact these figures show continued growth albeit at a slower place.

Like most things with the markets, something happens and its shock horror. Dust settles and some clarity and confidence returns.

We are where we are. We remain a strong global economy (let's not forget the proportionate scale of our banking crisis relative to the size of the country) who came out of the recession quicker and stronger than most.

We are an important trading partner for many parts of the world.

I think the EU has more to worry about than we have about leaving. They've just lost their 2nd biggest economy / contributor so will have to go cap in hand to the rest who a) won't want to pay it and b) probably can't afford it.
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  #956  
Old 12-07-2016, 05:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Crozzy71 View Post
I attended a presentation by our chief economist last week. The revised 2017 forecasts post-Brexit are - pre-Brexit in ( ):

- GDP 1.5% (2.6)
- Base Rate 0% (0.5 / 1.00)
- unemployment 6.2% (5.5)
- corporate investment -3.5 (0.5)

His view of GBP:USD is that it will fluctuate before settling somewhere between 1.30 and 1.40.

So, there are dangers of us talking or worrying ourselves into recession when in fact these figures show continued growth albeit at a slower place.

Like most things with the markets, something happens and its shock horror. Dust settles and some clarity and confidence returns.

We are where we are. We remain a strong global economy (let's not forget the proportionate scale of our banking crisis relative to the size of the country) who came out of the recession quicker and stronger than most.

We are an important trading partner for many parts of the world.

I think the EU has more to worry about than we have about leaving. They've just lost their 2nd biggest economy / contributor so will have to go cap in hand to the rest who a) won't want to pay it and b) probably can't afford it.
Yes but it is the experts again, and they are not to be trusted, are they?
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  #957  
Old 12-07-2016, 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Mat ov CPFC View Post
And best of British to them. A German company investing in Germany makes perfectly logical sense.

But it strikes me that the message coming from German industry is that they have zero appetite for any sort of trade barriers/tarriffs to be put in place following our departure from the EU, mirroring the attitude of many over here.

So that seems a key issue that can be dealt with very simply. Probably done and dusted inside the time it takes to exchange a metaphorical handshake.

Next item please.
I see the flaw in your thinking. Germany has industry. We, on the other hand, are f*cked.
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  #958  
Old 12-07-2016, 06:25 PM
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I see the flaw in your thinking. Germany has industry. We, on the other hand, are f*cked.
We have not had industry for decades.

And what we do have is owned by companies from abroad.
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  #959  
Old 12-07-2016, 06:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crozzy71 View Post
I attended a presentation by our chief economist last week. The revised 2017 forecasts post-Brexit are - pre-Brexit in ( ):

- GDP 1.5% (2.6)
- Base Rate 0% (0.5 / 1.00)
- unemployment 6.2% (5.5)
- corporate investment -3.5 (0.5)

His view of GBP:USD is that it will fluctuate before settling somewhere between 1.30 and 1.40.

So, there are dangers of us talking or worrying ourselves into recession when in fact these figures show continued growth albeit at a slower place.

Like most things with the markets, something happens and its shock horror. Dust settles and some clarity and confidence returns.

We are where we are. We remain a strong global economy (let's not forget the proportionate scale of our banking crisis relative to the size of the country) who came out of the recession quicker and stronger than most.

We are an important trading partner for many parts of the world.

I think the EU has more to worry about than we have about leaving. They've just lost their 2nd biggest economy / contributor so will have to go cap in hand to the rest who a) won't want to pay it and b) probably can't afford it.
A good summery. However, I suspect that investment will be dealt with in the next budget with tax breaks offered for investment.
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  #960  
Old 12-07-2016, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Mat ov CPFC View Post
And best of British to them. A German company investing in Germany makes perfectly logical sense.

But it strikes me that the message coming from German industry is that they have zero appetite for any sort of trade barriers/tarriffs to be put in place following our departure from the EU, mirroring the attitude of many over here.

So that seems a key issue that can be dealt with very simply. Probably done and dusted inside the time it takes to exchange a metaphorical handshake.

Next item please.
It will be a lot of bluster from the EU but this sums it up. Siemens has massive clout in Germany and has a £5 billion turn over in the UK. This is just one German company. Add BMW, Volkswagon, Mercedes and Heidelberg to name just a few, into the mix and you can immediately see why they have to get this sorted asap. The German government knows that if they play hard ball they will be shooting themselves in the foot.
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