Betting Thread ?

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

What were the pre season bets out of interest??

[saul1664]

Don't understand why anyone would bet away from the exchanges.

[Bigtoe82]

Originally Posted by saul1664

Don't understand why anyone would bet away from the exchanges.

Beneficial sometimes in golf betting, with regards to ew betting and specials.
Sometimes (rarely) better odds.
People understand it and find it more comfortable.
Marketing.
People generally understand odds as 'fractions'.
Wider range of bets.

[saul1664]

I meant as a general day to day thing, the only other account I have is bet 365, which I keep for the live streaming occasionally and the odd bet I can't have on the exchanges but 95% definetely on the exchanges. How much did you win to get Ladbrokes to close down your account.

[LLCOOLSTEVE]

Originally Posted by saul1664

Don't understand why anyone would bet away from the exchanges.

I closed my Betfair account ages ago, I found i was losing far too much profit by laying off bets and minimizing potential losses, overall i found it far better to let bets run in the long term. The temptation to lay off was too great, so i closed it.

I also found that by looking at Betfair id regularly get put off my selections by the market fluctuations

[Louis]

Originally Posted by LLCOOLSTEVE

I closed my Betfair account ages ago, I found i was losing far too much profit by laying off bets and minimizing potential losses, overall i found it far better to let bets run in the long term. The temptation to lay off was too great, so i closed it.

I also found that by looking at Betfair id regularly get put off my selections by the market fluctuations

Similar experience here. I use Betfair regularly, but when I actually check, either manually or using an odds comparison site like oddschecker, the better priced bookies are nearly always better priced than Betfair, particularly when you take the average 4% commission on profits that Betfair charges. In reality, I am beginning to think Betfair is only useful when:

a) When they occasionally offer better odds
b) As a way of laying off existing bets

Apart from that, I reckon you're much better off sticking to competitively priced bookies, e.g. ->

Bet365
Ladbrokes
William Hill
BetVictor
Stan James
Coral
188Bet
sbobet
Pinnacle

Like LLCoolSteve, the proof for me is in the profit and loss. I've made a decent profit with a few bookies, and I've made a big loss with Betfair.

[saul1664]

Mine is exactly the opposite way around. Though I do bet/trade a lot.

[BringBackSasa]

Originally Posted by Louis

I've also heard Ladbrokes is one of the bookies who will charge an 'inactive account fee' if you leave money in your account for too long.

Yep, they did that on my poker account a few years ago.

Originally Posted by LLCOOLSTEVE

What were the pre season bets out of interest??

Prem top scorers. I won £600, although I had staked a similar amount on the market. But I won a fair few £50 freebets every time one of my selections scored a hattrick. They must automaticallly **** you once a certain amount of freebets kick in. It can't be down to the amount of money you win otherwise they'd have closed my account when AJ helped me take them to the cleaners back in the day.

[Louis]

Originally Posted by saul1664

Mine is exactly the opposite way around. Though I do bet/trade a lot.

Do you compare odds though Saul? Betfair odds v other bookies? I sometimes do write-ups/tips on Punters Lounge and I always look for the best odds. It's usually not Betfair - although some of my tips are Asian Handicap bets, where I've hardly ever seen Betfair be better priced than 188Bet/sbo/Pinnacle.

[saul1664]

Originally Posted by Louis

Do you compare odds though Saul? Betfair odds v other bookies? I sometimes do write-ups/tips on Punters Lounge and I always look for the best odds. It's usually not Betfair - although some of my tips are Asian Handicap bets, where I've hardly ever seen Betfair be better priced than 188Bet/sbo/Pinnacle.

I check oddschecker, but do put down a lot of ante-post bets that 90% of do dramatically reduce in price, don't always get the best value in betfair but find that is countered by the ability to trade out, whereas you can't do that (as easily) with other bookmakers. Something to think about to maximise value.

[saul1664]

Just found some random bets in bet 365

£10 e/w double

O'Sullivan @ 15/2
Alonso @ 11/4

and £5 treble

O'Sullivan @ 6
Tiger Woods (Open) @ 6
MVG (PDC) @ 5/2

First one looking tasty, might be having my account shut down lol

[mart63]

BET365 doing their free in running matched bet again for the Champions league final.

[Louis]

From this BBC report, Stoke look a more likely destination for him than Everton if he leaves Wigan -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/22628235

But he's 12.0 for Stoke and 3.14 for Everton. I know from past experience how easy it is to lose money on next manager bets, but the Stoke odds look good to me …

Next Stoke Manager
Roberto Martinez
12.0
Paddy Power

[Louis]

UEFA Womens Champions League Final
Wolfsburg Women v Lyon Women
Tonight Thursday 23rd May 19.30

I think there could be fewer goals here than the markets currently anticipate. Cup finals often have fewer goals than people think. The last three finals (all involving Lyon) have been:

0-0
2-0
2-0

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Wo...ampions_League

Unders looks good value I think -

Under 2.5
2.5
Bet365/Skybet

[JamTheEagle]

Originally Posted by Louis

From this BBC report, Stoke look a more likely destination for him than Everton if he leaves Wigan -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/22628235

But he's 12.0 for Stoke and 3.14 for Everton. I know from past experience how easy it is to lose money on next manager bets, but the Stoke odds look good to me …

Next Stoke Manager
Roberto Martinez
12.0
Paddy Power

Hope so buddy - I'm on Vítor Pereira at 12/1 for Everton, seems the more popular choice among Everton fans so fingers crossed!

[saul1664]

Pakistan to win the ICC Champions Trophy @ 7.6 (starts 6 Jun)
Djokovic to win the French open @ 3.45 (starts 26th May)
Stenson to win the British Open @ 75 (1/2 point)

The French Open is a bit of a washout, did get Serena Williams @ 4, now 2.2, this was considered one of her weaker events but currently 16 out of 16 this season on clay, if she is injury free she will win, no questions, will be having a small cover bet on Errani @ 25, she'll be suited to this surface and is pretty dogged.

Cannot work out the Nadal price, Djokovic and Nadal are head and shoulders above anyone else on clay, but Nadal hasn't played a major yet, and Djokovic beat him on this surface in the Madrid final, the way he moves on court really helps him on this surface. It's one thing to dominate 3 set matches, it's far harder to dominate 5 sets and I think that will find Nadal out, so I can't be going anywhere near him at 1.7, Djokovic is the value, Murray coming out hasn't even devalued the odds.

[saul1664]

I really can't be asked doing this, you need a betfair account, a bet 365 account and enough to cover lay liabilities (though you can't lose), which guarantees £30 profit for no risk.

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund

Back Bayern Munich to beat Dortmund on Bet365 with £50 (current odds 1.75).

Lay Munich to beat Dortmund on Betfair (or any other exchange) with £50 (current odds 1.79). Whatever the result we will now be approximately £2.50 down but you then qualify for a free bet…

Wait until the match starts then back any market around the 4.0 (3/1) mark on Bet365 with £50 (the draw should suffice).

Now lay the same selection with Betfair for a stake of £37.50. Regardless of what happens in the match, you should now be guaranteed an overall profit of over £30!

Here’s an example using the current odds…

You back the draw with £50 at odds of 31/10 (4.1) – that’s a potential profit of £155…

You lay the draw on Betfair at odds of 4.2 with a £37.50 stake – that’s a liability of £120.

If the match is a draw you make £155 less £120 from the lay bet, less the £2.50 you lost on the qualifying bet – that’s a total profit of £32.50.

If the match is not a draw you make £37.50 from your lay bet and your £50 in play stake is refunded as per the Bet365 free bet – that’s a total profit of £33.12 (£37.50 minus £1.88 Betfair commission, minus £2.50 from the qualifying bet)…

[mart63]

Change of tack for me this time on the 365 bet, 50 on over 0.5 goals,back 0-0 at 12 for £4 on Betfair,leaves me with a potential loss of £5 or £6 but a £50 free bet.
As it is probably my last proper football bet of this season I will put the free bet on either the correct score or last goal scorer hoping for a big payout.