#201
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I only do 1.5 goals as that seems to have the least volatility and be the most predictable. 3.5 can have the same characteristics but doesn't have the same big lump bets at almost any price which are always nice to have.
All the trading is pre event by the way. 6 is easy to break as rather than take, for example, a £5 loss irrespective of who wins it's often very tempting to have one small green or zero on the overs and the under 1.5 (always the least likely outcome) at £-20 for example, if it goes wrong takes a good trade to recover it. Requires patience but if I can get ball rolling it is very satisfying as the losses are quite rare. In short the unders / overs markets (pretty much all of them) are fairly predictable and have a lot of money going through them (actually that's their main attraction) so if you can make £450 make you money then you can pretty much do the same for £2500 at not far off the same profitability, not normally the case in markets outside of Win Lose Draw. My plan is to get my bank into 4 figures sooner rather than later. I just need to only use my Betfair account for this and not get involved in in running snooker betting, tricky as it's such fun! |
#202
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As always fin, I will watch intently and make inane comments
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Ibid. |
#203
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Well it's something to keep us entertained even if it doesn't lead to my retirement quite yet...
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#204
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Quote:
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Oh My God they're jumping up and down. |
#205
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Spain match is 1.22 Over 1.5 goals on BF at the moment.
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#206
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Quote:
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#207
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I agree. Was thinking of Finbars trading.
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#208
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Quote:
Main tool today has been betting on the side that the bulk of the money isn't, most noticably no one was laying at 6.0 when trying to back at 1.2 Had my 1.18 not been matched overnight (£1.5k was) then I would like to think I would have got out at 1.19 for zero profit and then made the same profit on the drift, not so sure I would though... Still more profit from this match than I expected (even if I need to get out at higher than 1.21 for the final £50) Just backed the unders at 5.3 to get out at £12 profit, 2.6%ish which am happy with (could have been better but o2.5 has drifted a lot) +11.34 for u1.5 goals +12.15 for o1.5 goals List of my bets so far if anyone is interested (not sure if these will be leggible or not, have done average odds as the other way would not have been) Under 1.5 Goals 6.07 £225.34 £1,143.60 Ref: Bet matched: Over 1.5 Goals 1.2 £1,911.16 £387.89 Ref: Bet matched: £2,136.50 Lay Backer's Odds Backer's Stake Payout Liability Lay Backer's Odds Backer's Stake Payout Liability Under 1.5 Goals 6 £66.00 £396.00 £330.00 Ref: Bet matched: Over 1.5 Goals 1.19 £1,109.50 £1,325.26 £215.76 Ref: Bet matched: £1,175.50 |
#209
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Is that you done for the day then Finbar or do you expect it come back down to 1.18 or even lower?
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#210
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quite surprised (and reassuring) how little the 1.5 has drifted compared to the 2.5
1.5 gone from 1.19 this morning to 1.23 to back now 2.5 gone from 1.60 this morning to 1.77 to back now 10% increase vs a 3.5%ish increase, pretty much why I prefer 1.5 as the variance is much less (and I still wouldn't be surprised to see some late backers at any price forcing the price down to 1.2 or 1.21 near kick off) |
#211
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Quote:
Quite chuffed that the thing I fear most (a drift) still didn't stop me from making a profit, quite the opposite, in the Holland game there was more money traded, the price fell as hoped and I made less |
#212
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1.25 now and still drifting...
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#213
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People might be realising that the game might not be as one-sided as they thought. I think 1.25 is too low
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#214
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Tricky one, can't see Spain not scoring at least two, even if stars are rested the non stars will want to impress...mind you didn't quite work that way for England!
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#215
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I think Spain will probably score 2, but the odds on 'over 2.5 goals' are poor (South Korea play a defensive game).
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#216
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The market knew!
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#217
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Quote:
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#218
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Which is why I like that market to trade so much, diverse opinions! 1.28 (the SP) looked big to me, still luckyily I didn't care if it was over or under
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#219
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Just tried some arbing on England.
England were 1.34 to beat Bangladesh (a good price I thought anyway) and England could be laid at 1.3 to win the series 2-0, i.e not win this final test. I thought this was a definite arb, but i've probably just cocked up my figures as I did it in a rush. Took the £40 lay on england 2-0 to put me +38 and -12. Then put £40 back on england to win to put me on -40 and +12.54. So i make it that if England win I win 54p and if they don't i lose £2. Which is about 1.27 or something, less than the price to back. Is this me buggering it up or just the margins too small and my 5% commission taking out any potential profit?
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More or less retired BBSer |
#220
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Quote:
One thing I would be interested in studying. Where there is a marked difference between the Bookies and Betfair - who usualy gets it right or is it 50 - 50? I am particularly interested in the infrequent cases [not rare fortuntely!] where Betfair's price is shorter than 1 or more of the bookies. Rhetorical question by the way!
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Oh My God they're jumping up and down. Last edited by herts_palace; 05-06-2010 at 03:46 PM. |
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