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  #141  
Old 28-05-2010, 04:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
will try to claw some of that back over the next day and a half
Well have gone from everything being -£50 to everything being -£50 except for Azerbaijan (favourites) who are now green for a fiver and Germany who are -£35 so it's an improvement at least

Hopefully might not be too bad by the time it all starts, some nice big backs and lays being placed stopping the prices from going in / out which makes chipping away at the current red fairly simple
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  #142  
Old 28-05-2010, 07:20 PM
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Just seen tips from oddchecker and the last 5 winners have sung in positions 20, 24,17,17 and 19. If this holds it would rule out Azerbaijan[1] and possibly Turkey[14]. I have read the first of GE's papers,
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I didn't understand all[or more accurately most] of it but it does seem to prove the existance of voting blocks. Also highlights the large populations of Turkish expats that exist in some countries that may also affect voting. Although I understand the impact of this may be reduced this year as a voting panel will contibute 50% of the vote.

If I ignore that I have heard some of the songs I would be inclined to go for Denmark as all the Baltic states will get a vote[39 countries to vote in final] and Denmark sing in last position. However a few other factors come into play. For example I understand that the German song [or is it the singer] is already well known in Europe. Also what effect will Greece's money problems have? Finally the songs from the semi will have an advantage as they have already been heard once. Additionally according to one poll site it is a 3 way battle with Germany, Azer and Armenia battling it out with others including Israel, Romania , Turkey and Denamark also in contention.

I have heard and remember the Turkish song and think it has a chance. I also have heard the German and Danish songs and whilst I wouldn't dismiss them they didn't impress me. However the fact that the German and Azer sing early and that Germany is a "big" country that is not part of a voting bloc suggests to me that they will not win.

So to sum up at this stage I think it will be between Armenia, Denmark, Israel, Turkey and Romania[just noticed that all of these are in the top 6 in the betting except Romania!!].What I haven't worked out yet is whether there prices will come in or drift. I will now listen to the songs and see if this list cannot be shortened. Then work out what my bets will be.

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One final thought the Georgia song seemed to be sung with a bit of gusto, sort of dismissed it as it is sung in 13th position. No data on voting blocs, so far, as it is a new entrant. Might be a good outsider.
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Last edited by herts_palace; 28-05-2010 at 07:31 PM.
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  #143  
Old 28-05-2010, 07:31 PM
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I think I'd go on Germany for the fact he's well known. Denmark for the scandi vote and then one of the baltic chaps.
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  #144  
Old 28-05-2010, 07:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GodstoneEagle
I think I'd go on Germany for the fact he's well known. Denmark for the scandi vote and then one of the baltic chaps.
I think Denmark may pick up both the Scandi vote and the Balkan vote. Don't forget that there are no entries from Finland, Sweden, Latvia and Lithuania in the final but that they all have a vote.

Also if you do elect to go for trading Denmark in play then I suggest you hold off betting on them before Finland vote in position 10 as there is not one Scandi or Baltic state in the first 9 voters.

By the way the German is a she.
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  #145  
Old 28-05-2010, 07:48 PM
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That's what you think
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  #146  
Old 28-05-2010, 09:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GodstoneEagle
I think I'd go on Germany for the fact he's well known. Denmark for the scandi vote and then one of the baltic chaps.
Ok I may have got this wrong. Satellite [the German entry] has been released already and has topped the German download charts. The Youtube video has more than 5 million hits. One other thought will the Europeans be slightly more pro German now that that they have bailed out the Euro?

I may not yet be in a position where I am backing the German entry but I will certainly make sure I don't lose if it wins.
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  #147  
Old 28-05-2010, 10:51 PM
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Well my gay friend said France or Romania and has no idea of the betting so must be good info...might be good info...
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  #148  
Old 28-05-2010, 10:53 PM
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5 quid on denmark at 20s already. may venture on germany.
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  #149  
Old 29-05-2010, 02:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Well my gay friend said France or Romania and has no idea of the betting so must be good info...might be good info...
If that's the choice I would stick it on Romania no question. Good voting block, people have already heard the song, France hasn't done well for ages. Then listen to the songs!
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  #150  
Old 29-05-2010, 03:00 AM
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No interest in betting on Eurovision myself, but they did a feature on Radio Five Live just before 1am tonight (Friday night) during which they played short excerpts from a few of the favourites, and the Azerbaijan number stood out to me - Five Live said it's the favourite.
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  #151  
Old 29-05-2010, 09:00 AM
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Well have had a dabble on Denmark and Romania
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  #152  
Old 29-05-2010, 11:40 AM
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Azerb. and Germany are the current favs with Bet365
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  #153  
Old 29-05-2010, 12:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Well have had a dabble on Denmark and Romania
Still completing my investigations but those 2 look good to me at the moment, especially at the prices offered.
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  #154  
Old 29-05-2010, 02:44 PM
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Having listened to more videos than I care to admit I have decided on the following.

Betting on Denmark, Turkey, Romania and Georgia.

Azerbaijan has a good song but I just think the price is too short and 1st up will work against her. My intentions are to lay Azer and then possibly back when she starts to drift up. Germany has a reasonable song but again too short in a strong field. Also her English accent sounds wierd to me. No voting block will work against her. Have already backed at 5.0 with the intention of laying at 4.5[currently 4.8].

If you seriously think that Azer can win it then they are on BF at 3.75. But perhaps a better bet is to bet on the winner coming from a draw of 1-10 at 3.5 with Bwin so you will get 9 other countries thrown in for a small reduction in price. May even to be able to make some small dosh by doing the Bwin bet & laying the others songs drawn 1-10 for small amounts on BF?

Denmark is my strong tip. Good song. go last, strong voting block, with [in my opinion] no serious contention from other baltic, scandi states[although iceland song is reasonable]. One other aspect that may help is that the final is in Norway. I have noted that the winners are often not that distant from the final location. Perhaps this is because a lot more Norwegians than normal will watch, wherever they are based to increase the Scandi vote. GE did well to get 20 I tried to get 19.5 without any joy and price is now 17. I think price may drift once comp is under way, as stated previously so will try to back prior to Finland voting. Other tips include Turkey and Romania.I have already traded Turkey by backing at 16.0 and laying at 13.5. But I am hoping that price goes out again.


Some other bets I will be making:

Lay Greece to be in the top 4 - 5.4 on Betfair. Poor song[imo], 11th on, no big voting block and econnomic problems won't help. Or if you prefer not to lay you can back them at evens at 365 to finish 8th or worse. I know they have a strong diaspora[expats] but that might help them to get top 10, but the juries will prevent them becoming top 4

Back Georgia to be in the top 10. I like this song but they may not have enough to win it. However it is a catchy tune and she comes on after the UK entry and may appear to be better than she really is. Current price is 2.36 on BF, although I got 2.5.

Back Denmark to beat Israel head to Head 2.5 BF

Turkey to beat Greece 1.42 on BF. Turkey on later and a strong song will swing it.

Lay Spain to be top 10 at 4.5 on BF. Poor song[imo], no voting block, on 2nd. One of the "big 4".

My other Big bet is Denmark to finish top 10 at 1.68 on BF. Incidentally just looking at this market and Turkey are shortist price at 1.07 showing that some people are aware of the diaspora vote[although someone got evens!]


Hope that helps and if you disagree[or have spotted something else] don't be afraid to post. I might have got it wrong!
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  #155  
Old 29-05-2010, 06:24 PM
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Romania at 70.0, Denmark at 16/1 and Germany at 5.3, can't fail surely
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  #156  
Old 29-05-2010, 09:11 PM
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dribs and drabs on germany, romania, georgia and the danes
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  #157  
Old 29-05-2010, 09:15 PM
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Sorry didn't realise that voting starts after the first song, may help the early ones a bit more.

There are loads of trading opportunities on the winners market on BF. Currently have Denmark backed for £41 at 16.63 and laid £31 at 15.5
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  #158  
Old 29-05-2010, 09:32 PM
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Sounds like an experienced traders dream hp
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Old 29-05-2010, 09:39 PM
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herts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
Yes it is Louis [not that I would call myself an experienced trader mind] providing you know which way the prices are likely to move.I am happy to be stuck with bets on Denmark or Turkey so I am trading mainly on them. Additionally once you have made a few trades you have a target back and lay price which makes things a lot easier.
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Old 29-05-2010, 09:43 PM
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herts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
Germany now favourites at 3.65
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