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  #1781  
Old 22-07-2016, 08:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Neckinger Eagle View Post
Not only has he used Gove's figure, he has forgotten that Gove (or indeed any of the Leave obfuscators) had very little political muscle to actually make promises on anything. Was he leading the country? No. Was there any plan? No.

Post-referendum when the knifes stopped stabbing, we find Gove has no political clout at all.

Tories putting money into the NHS? Don't be so foolhardy.
so of the 350m there will lliterally be no saving ?
Wow - wish I'd voted Remain now or spoken to some experts (that worked on all the other large country withdrawals from the EU)
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  #1782  
Old 22-07-2016, 08:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Neckinger Eagle View Post
Have to say, it's good to see somebody who voted leave actually putting up a reasonable debate, rather than those posters who provide no reasoned argument other than 'na na we won'.
I thought I would to see what happened but it reminded me not to bother
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  #1783  
Old 22-07-2016, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Golf Boy View Post
Jesus ******* Christ. Does this really need explaining ( to the same people i might add ) on every ******* page of this thread?
With the pound dropping off the prices of German made goods will inevitably rise. They'll be worried in boardrooms across Germany now.

There'll be no problem with trade deals. We can't get a worse deal than we have now.
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  #1784  
Old 22-07-2016, 08:41 AM
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  #1785  
Old 22-07-2016, 08:42 AM
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  #1786  
Old 22-07-2016, 08:48 AM
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Originally Posted by eaglejez View Post
oh ok - its all sounds too difficult. Lets not bother
Jesus H. What is it with you? You assume someone pointing out fact automatically means some nihilistic, zero game game?

Yes it's difficult. These are the issues we face and why the Government will take their time scoping, consulting, gathering the resources etc etc.
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  #1787  
Old 22-07-2016, 08:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Skintagain View Post
There'll be no problem with trade deals. We can't get a worse deal than we have now.
Oh my!!

You think zero tariffs and single product standards etc instead of 28, not to mention the only market in the world with free establishment of services, is the worse deal you can get???
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  #1788  
Old 22-07-2016, 08:59 AM
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  #1789  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:00 AM
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Originally Posted by eaglejez View Post
so of the 350m there will lliterally be no saving ?
Wow - wish I'd voted Remain now or spoken to some experts (that worked on all the other large country withdrawals from the EU)
You may be being sarcastic but that is what it looks like and always looked like - it is just that people who voted Leave want to believe otherwise - while a lot of people did not fall for £350k they thought that there would be some savings. As you know the amount actually going to Brussels was about £150m (after you took off the rebate and the money coming back to the UK). The chances are that that is what will be charged for access to the market in a similar situation to Norway. The actual cost of the negotiations and additional expenses for things that we will have to pay for direct - such as carrying out our own trade negotiations and performing our own safety checks on imports, laboratory testing, approval of products etc will probably be on top of that of course.
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  #1790  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:03 AM
Skintagain Skintagain is offline
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Originally Posted by mik59 View Post
Oh my!!

You think zero tariffs and single product standards etc instead of 28, not to mention the only market in the world with free establishment of services, is the worse deal you can get???
Whereas I appreciate your depth of knowledge and understanding of detail sometimes you have to look at the woods and not the trees.

With the pound having dropped our goods will be cheaper and their's more expensive, that'll help services too. Merkel and May are already cosying up, Hollande may be playing up a bit but he's history next year.
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  #1791  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:05 AM
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  #1792  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:08 AM
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Whereas I appreciate your depth of knowledge and understanding of detail sometimes you have to hope for the best
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  #1793  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:17 AM
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So the EU leaders are all sticking to the "free trade must require free movement" line.
Most of our leaders are sticking to the "Brexit means Brexit and free movement is not good" line.
Who knew?

Isn't the whole point of negotiation that you start from one position and then negotiate terms. Regardless of all the hyperbole on both sides the truth is both the EU and the UK will lose out without making some concesions and when Article 50 is triggered nothing will be 'off the table'.

It's just such a shame that so many people including some of our leaders are trying to undermine our position before we even trigger Article 50... It's more than likely going to happen so lets get the best deal we can.

Chances are it won't be as good as some Brexiteers hoped for and it won't be as bad as the doomsayers are suggesting. We're a massive economy, we have a massive financial centre and we buy a lot of Audis. It will be in the EU's interest to give us some concessions over and above the Norway model even if they say they won't budge on free movement.

For whatever it's worth... my own feeling is it's best to get out now even if it means things aren't as good as they were. The EU has managed to go through the 'back door' in order to get it's claws and tentacles in so many bits of our soceity, law and culture that it's almost impossible to leave. If we'd have allowed it fester and grow then we would have been stuck forever and it really was a now or never thing... The EU is like some dangerous parasite that creates the illusion of happieness but sucks the life out of all of it's hosts.
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  #1794  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:30 AM
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  #1795  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:31 AM
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Looks like we have a much stronger hand than originally thought, we can reverse article 50 at any point

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  #1796  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:31 AM
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Not a surprise - except to those voting for exit of course.
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  #1797  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:31 AM
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With the pound dropping off the prices of German made goods will inevitably rise. They'll be worried in boardrooms across Germany now.

There'll be no problem with trade deals. We can't get a worse deal than we have now.
**** me. And the Brexiters get upset when they are called stupid.
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  #1798  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:36 AM
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Looks like we have a much stronger hand than originally thought, we can reverse article 50 at any point

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So brexit has gone from leaving and closing borders to leaving with free movement to now ok we don't have to leave.

You couldn't make it up.
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  #1799  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:52 AM
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So the EU leaders are all sticking to the "free trade must require free movement" line.
Most of our leaders are sticking to the "Brexit means Brexit and free movement is not good" line.
Who knew?

Isn't the whole point of negotiation that you start from one position and then negotiate terms. Regardless of all the hyperbole on both sides the truth is both the EU and the UK will lose out without making some concesions and when Article 50 is triggered nothing will be 'off the table'.
On the EU side, it is less about the price of free trade as the price of access to the single market. There is a difference. For example, the Canada free trade deal covers just 8% of the EU's imports and only selected products. Importantly for us, it excludes services which are some 40% of our exports.

We won't want the Swiss model either: Switzerland is more closely integrated into the EU’s goods market, subject to EU rules and standards in return for tariff-free trade in manufactured products. Its access to EU financial markets is limited, with only agreement on non-life insurance. In return, it must allow free movement (and we'll have to see next year what comes of the stand-off over its referendum).

Norway and Liechtenstein are full members of the single market, with all the rules and standards in goods, services and capital that brings. They are members of the European Economic Area (EEA) as we are but you have to be either in the EU or EFTA so that is something else for the UK to decide on.

These countries can restrict free movement of people if "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectoral or regional nature arise". Norway has never used this clause because the EU may retaliate by restricting imports of goods or services. Liechtenstein has been allowed quotas but it is tiny so has very little impact on the wider EU economy.

It's also important to remember that Norway, Switzerland etc negotiated their agreements when they were expected to join the EU one day. We are leaving so it is a very different dynamic.

But mostly we are different because we buy 17% of the EU’s exports (excluding trade within the club), while the EU receives 44% of our exports. That level of economic integration is why analysts suggest that it will be hard for us to negotiate access to the Single Market without accepting at least the level of EU rules that are applied to Norway and Switzerland.

Above all this though is the issue of time. Article 50 is on a withdrawal agreement that does not include trade. We would hope to negotiate that in parallel, and the Government may well be delaying A50 in order to get some informal support for that approach. (FT is reporting that there are already some talks in Brussels on what is being called a 'code of conduct' which may well be aiming at setting a framework that avoids clashes that derail the process.) If we reach the end of the statutory 2 year period without an extension, which the 27 must agree unanimously, we risk exiting without a long term deal which would be damaging to us (but much less to the EU as a whole).

So timing is a problem but also the terms: A50 says that the 27 agree on the exit deal without us in the room. So your idea of a negotiation does not wholly apply to the withdrawal agreement itself.
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  #1800  
Old 22-07-2016, 09:54 AM
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Looks like we have a much stronger hand than originally thought, we can reverse article 50 at any point

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While that is interesting please remind me didn't we have a vote saying we are going to leave and isn't Matov going to march to Parliament at the head of a mob with burning brands and pitchforks if we don't actually leave?

It is becoming very clear that while remainers all voted for the same thing (albeit some reluctantly and some for the wrong reasons) there is a vast different range of what Brexiters want or expect from their vote.
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