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General Palace Discussion General Palace talk - please keep transfer talk in the transfer forum.

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  #1  
Old 08-05-2005, 07:16 PM
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Proof we can stay up
OK, I know the whole point of football is that you can’t predict anything, but doing this calms me down. Anyway, El Jimbo wanted to know our chances. Sorry if someone else has already done this or done it better.

It makes 2 assumptions:
1. The probability of an individual win or draw or loss is 1/3 or 33.3% if form, opposition & home/away do not affect (which is all crap, I know);
2. I estimate the odds of gaining the vital extra +2 gd (if we win & Southampton also win) as 1/5 or 20%.

(a) CP win = 1/3
(b) S not win (2/3) + win+1gd, but CP win +3gd (1/3x1/5=1/15) = 11/15
(c) N not win = 2/3

a x b x c = 22/135 = 29.7% chance of staying up.

(a) CP draw = 1/3 = 1/3
(b) S lose = 1/3
(c) N lose = 1/3
(d) W lose or draw = 2/3

a x b x c x d = 2/81 = 1.62% chance of staying up.

29.7 + 1.62 = 31.32% overall chance of CPFC staying up.

It’s all crap because I KNOW we will stay up!

(Odds of Le Saux losing in the fight if it had kicked off between him and Dowie yesterday = 100%)
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  #2  
Old 08-05-2005, 07:23 PM
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Simple as that eh?!
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  #3  
Old 08-05-2005, 07:29 PM
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seems simple to me
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  #4  
Old 08-05-2005, 07:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by AJ'sLoveMonkey
Simple as that eh?!


Nope!
the simple version is
A. Southampton won't beat Mu = 100%;
B. Norwich luck cannot hold out = 100%;
C. We will win = 100%.

Looks like we are staying up!
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  #5  
Old 08-05-2005, 07:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Angry Eagle
Nope!
the simple version is
A. Southampton won't beat Mu = 100%;
B. Norwich luck cannot hold out = 100%;
C. We will win = 100%.

Looks like we are staying up!


I'll drink to that!
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  #6  
Old 08-05-2005, 07:33 PM
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  #7  
Old 08-05-2005, 07:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Angry Eagle
Nope!
the simple version is
A. Southampton won't beat Mu = 100%;
B. Norwich luck cannot hold out = 100%;
C. We will win = 100%.

Looks like we are staying up!


when you put it like that everything seems much more promising!
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  #8  
Old 08-05-2005, 07:45 PM
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  #9  
Old 08-05-2005, 08:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Angry Eagle
Nope!
the simple version is
A. Southampton won't beat Mu = 100%;
B. Norwich luck cannot hold out = 100%;
C. We will win = 100%.

Looks like we are staying up!

Please tell me you are an actuary by profession
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  #10  
Old 08-05-2005, 08:01 PM
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unfortunately 22/135 is only 16.3% + 1.62 = 17.92%

And using those maths Norwich chances would be 38.22%

1/3 winning as they stay up

plus them drawing or losing 2/3 and us plus saints losing 1/9 and westbrom not winning 2/3
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  #11  
Old 08-05-2005, 08:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by maestro
unfortunately 22/135 is only 16.3% + 1.62 = 17.92%

And using those maths Norwich chances would be 38.22%

1/3 winning as they stay up

plus them drawing or losing 2/3 and us plus saints losing 1/9 and westbrom not winning 2/3


I stand corrected. How did I make 22/135 more than 22%! Doh! I was fine until I used a calcaltor to transfer fration to % (too busy watching TV at the same time).
17.92% is correct (but still not too bad). SORRY if I gave anybody false hope, but I stand by my last comment (It’s all crap because I KNOW we will stay up!).
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  #12  
Old 08-05-2005, 08:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by old git
Please tell me you are an actuary by profession


No, I'm an Goverment health and safety Inspector, who now I've had my mathes corrected will never have the confidence to use probability evidence in court again! And to think I tell my son to concentrate when he is doing his homework!
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  #13  
Old 09-05-2005, 07:47 AM
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It's very simple.

Norwich will go down on the basis they can't win away from home and being fourth from bottom makes them the most vunerable.

West Brom will go down because they were bottom at Christmas and need far too many results to go their way.

Southampton will go down because only once before have all three promoted sides been relegated the following season (yes I know Palace were one of them!), plus law of averages suggests they will be relegated.

Thus Palace will stay up!!!!
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  #14  
Old 09-05-2005, 07:58 AM
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Re: Proof we can stay up
Quote:
Originally posted by Angry Eagle
OK, I know the whole point of football is that you can’t predict anything, but doing this calms me down. Anyway, El Jimbo wanted to know our chances. Sorry if someone else has already done this or done it better.

It makes 2 assumptions:
1. The probability of an individual win or draw or loss is 1/3 or 33.3% if form, opposition & home/away do not affect (which is all crap, I know);
2. I estimate the odds of gaining the vital extra +2 gd (if we win & Southampton also win) as 1/5 or 20%.

(a) CP win = 1/3
(b) S not win (2/3) + win+1gd, but CP win +3gd (1/3x1/5=1/15) = 11/15
(c) N not win = 2/3

a x b x c = 22/135 = 29.7% chance of staying up.

(a) CP draw = 1/3 = 1/3
(b) S lose = 1/3
(c) N lose = 1/3
(d) W lose or draw = 2/3

a x b x c x d = 2/81 = 1.62% chance of staying up.

29.7 + 1.62 = 31.32% overall chance of CPFC staying up.


Bookies would support your odds. Their odds of 5-2 equate to a 28% chance (2 divided by 7), and allowing for their profit margin, this comes to about 30%.

http://sports.bestbetting.com/footba.../not-relegated
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  #15  
Old 09-05-2005, 08:11 AM
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After last years finale, expect the unexpected.

After we lost the final game of the season, who'd have thought a goal in another game would put us in the play-offs?

It can happen again!!
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