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  #21  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:13 PM
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Originally posted by Dave
How much more explanation do you need?

Wanting a crash means that one is hoping to take some type of advantage from other peoples misery.

Not nice.
Wanting to see house prices drop so that one's children can afford to buy a house could be an alternative way of looking at things. JAT
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  #22  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:14 PM
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Lots of good points on here.

Here's my thoughts.

Assuming you already own a place (i.e. have a mortgage), it would cancel out, because the loss would apply to both the house you are buying as well as to the one you are selling.

Just supposing every property halved in price, that would take a large number below the 250,000 mark, hence we'd pay 1% instead of 3%.

That to my mind would be good.

But, if you owe 200,000 on a 300,000 house and the value halved, you would be in sh1t creek, of course, and the bank/bs would probably foreclose on you !

To me, the real market setter will be once the interest rise causes the buy-to-let's mortgages to cost more per month than the rent they can sensibly charge.

That's when the crash will begin.

But I do not know at what figure the rates have to reach to cause this. Probably a few more percent yet, I would think, does anybody have any figures?
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  #23  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:18 PM
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So long as there are more people needing houses than they are building there will never be a crash. They can't build them quick enough in the South east so demand will always outstrip supply. Very soon the idea of renting ones own flat will be considered a luxory few can afford and even room sharing will come back in for the young and those wanting to buy for the first time will have to spend vaste proportions of their income to achieve it. There just arn't enough houses and an ever increasing amount of people settling in the south east so the market can only go one way.
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  #24  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by KennyB
Lots of good points on here.

Here's my thoughts.

Assuming you already own a place (i.e. have a mortgage), it would cancel out, because the loss would apply to both the house you are buying as well as to the one you are selling.

Just supposing every property halved in price, that would take a large number below the 250,000 mark, hence we'd pay 1% instead of 3%.

That to my mind would be good.

But, if you owe 200,000 on a 300,000 house and the value halved, you would be in sh1t creek, of course, and the bank/bs would probably foreclose on you !

To me, the real market setter will be once the interest rise causes the buy-to-let's mortgages to cost more per month than the rent they can sensibly charge.

That's when the crash will begin.

But I do not know at what figure the rates have to reach to cause this. Probably a few more percent yet, I would think, does anybody have any figures?
Inflation may be a good pointer for a possible crash. If it increases then the bank of England will have to increase rates to keep it under control.
This may in consequence lead to a correction.

Also if their is a recession the demand for immigrant labour will decrease and this willl have an effect on the demand for housing.
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  #25  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by richdeniro
I don't want the market to crash - just make it a bit easier for people earning an average wage to get on the ladder. I mean 200k for a 1 bedroom flat is absolutely ridiculous.
I suggest you extend your property search outside of Chelsea.
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  #26  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:25 PM
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There comes a time though when people will say sod it, I am not going to spend 70% of my earnings to live in a tiny sh1thole, putting up with high crime rates, crap NHS and poor schooling.

With the present rate of income tax, congestion charging and general transport costs, some people would be better off (financially) living in South Wales and working in the local Tesco.
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  #27  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by DANGERMOUSE
I suggest you extend your property search outside of Chelsea.
Ok maybe I was a bit OTT but I'm not far off judging from the prices of the Queens Gate development near Thornton Heath...

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  #28  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Selhurst300
Wanting to see house prices drop so that one's children can afford to buy a house could be an alternative way of looking at things. JAT
That is the way I look at it.

Wel more like wanting to see house prices drop so my fathers children can afford to buy a house
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  #29  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:28 PM
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I suggest you extend your property search outside of Chelsea.
What he said
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Old 02-04-2007, 12:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by richdeniro
Ok maybe I was a bit OTT but I'm not far off judging from the prices of the Queens Gate development near Thornton Heath...

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  #31  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by richdeniro
Ok maybe I was a bit OTT but I'm not far off judging from the prices of the Queens Gate development near Thornton Heath...

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I can't believe they are quoting dimensions in millimetres.
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  #32  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by KennyB


But, if you owe 200,000 on a 300,000 house and the value halved, you would be in sh1t creek, of course, and the bank/bs would probably foreclose on you !
Only if you cant make the payments.

A speculator led crash has never happened in the UK property market or (or anyo other market) as far as I am aware). Unemployment is the major driver as a cause. Rising rates tend to cause people to do no more than re-finance.

Capital Economics have been claiming a crash is due every year since 1999 (I note the Daily Mail no longer gives them a page 1 headline). Even if prices went into a 20% reverse tomorrow that puts them back to where?, 18 months/2 years back?.
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  #33  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:36 PM
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I just cannot see a crash happening in the South East or London. Way too much demand. Pointless worrying about it.
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  #34  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by richdeniro
Ok maybe I was a bit OTT but I'm not far off judging from the prices of the Queens Gate development near Thornton Heath...

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New build flats are generally overpriced imho.
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  #35  
Old 02-04-2007, 12:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by PalaceSi
So long as there are more people needing houses than they are building there will never be a crash. They can't build them quick enough in the South east so demand will always outstrip supply. Very soon the idea of renting ones own flat will be considered a luxory few can afford and even room sharing will come back in for the young and those wanting to buy for the first time will have to spend vaste proportions of their income to achieve it. There just arn't enough houses and an ever increasing amount of people settling in the south east so the market can only go one way.
Not so sure about this, has London's population really increased so dramtically? Or are there just a lot of empty properties?

I would certainly like to see legislation brought in, in which council tax was doubled or trebled for any property left empty.

The ridiculous cost of property is a long term hindrance to the economy and to the magority of us as individuals. The only people to benefit from it are large scale property owners and those who bought personally big a long time ago who are now downsizing (if their children that is have been able to afford to leave the family home)

The ideal scenario of course is the soft landing rather than a crash, one where property prices fall by 1 per cent per year for 10 years so no one gets burnt but after 10 years, taking into account inflation, property once a again becomes more affordable.
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Old 02-04-2007, 12:43 PM
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Still way out of my price range. Can only get a 105k mortgage.
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Old 02-04-2007, 12:44 PM
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Part of the problem is down to not only insufficient supply, but also insufficient quality of supply. In my experience new dwellings are over-priced, cheaply-finished, badly-designed, pokey excuses for houses or flats. If you want to live somewhere that doesn't have hollow walls, doesn't have warped floors and does have rooms you can actually fit furniture into, you have to exclude anything less than 25 years old.
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Old 02-04-2007, 12:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by richdeniro
Still way out of my price range. Can only get a 105k mortgage.
Am I right in saying you started a thread a little while ago bemoaning your lack of ability to get on the housing ladder? Have you been taking steps to build up savings to use as a deposit?
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Old 02-04-2007, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
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Am I right in saying you started a thread a little while ago bemoaning your lack of ability to get on the housing ladder? Have you been taking steps to build up savings to use as a deposit?
Yup saving big time.
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Old 02-04-2007, 12:48 PM
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Originally posted by Justin
Why does it matter - you are buying to live in I assume.

The value is only on paper and is irrelevant - unless you are forced to sell and rent.

Say prices fell 20% and you wanted to move to a bigger place. The saving on the bigger place would be greater than the fall in the current one.
True - will be there for at least five years anyway, just seems wrong to be in pretty much negative equity from the off
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