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  #1  
Old 29-10-2009, 08:09 AM
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Betfair trading
Right, new thread on this for those who like trading, either in running or not, on Betfair. Purpose of this thread is to

1. Discuss strategies
2. Alert for good trading opportunities
3. Discuss recent successes failures

That's all I can think of right now...
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  #2  
Old 29-10-2009, 08:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Louis
I tried this strategy with small stakes on three of last night's (Wednesday 28th Oct) games with strong home favourites - Chelsea, Man City and Celtic. Backed all three at 12pm. Managed to lay them off at 1% below the 'backed' price. Laid Chelsea manually at 6.30pm. Had to log off Betfair at 6.40pm, at that time Man City and Celtic prices were above the price I had bet at, so I left a 'lay' bet to run. The Celtic 'lay' was matched at 7.25pm (before kick off) and the Man City one at 7.50pm (after the game had started and Man City had taken a 1-0 lead).

In the event, Chelsea and Man City won, Celtic lost, and the result was that I actually made 1% on Chelsea, 1% on Man City, and came out even on Celtic. But if Man City hadn't won the game, I might have lost my stake on the City bet. I suppose to be safe, I would have stayed on Betfar, watched the price, and closed the Man City bet before the match. I might have had to lay off at higher than my bet price though, which would have lost me a few percent on that one.

I think it's definitely worth trading out before kick off, one early goal the wrong way and you can ruin everything, the idea is that this is low risk so you have to accept that some trades you will have to take a small hit. Having Betfair on your mobile makes it a lot easier to wait till the last minute to do that though.

In the end I did have a trade on the Man City game, having failed to get the price I wanted (1.26) I eventually backed them at 1.23 at got out at 1.22 for £370 for £3 profit, not great and I probably shouldn't have got involved in the first place but was convinced that once City announced their side their odds were going to come in, I could probably have got 1.21 but wanted 1.19 or better

I backed Murphy in the snooker tonight last night at 1.78, 1.79 and 1.8, looks like I should have waited as he's since been matched at 1.84 but am hoping he comes in to 1.75. Can see a lot of people wanting to oppose Hendry
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  #3  
Old 29-10-2009, 08:32 AM
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Great idea for a thread, Finbar.

As I mentioned, I have been using Betfair for horseracing. The system you used on the City game is known as "scalping" and it means that you can back and lay the same selection for the same stake, as long as the odds on the "lay" side are lower than on the "back" side. You will make money if the selection wins, but will not lose anything if it loses. It's a free bet.

Still studying the system and doing small scalps until I get used to it.
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  #4  
Old 29-10-2009, 09:01 AM
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I can't see the point in scalping as you're still dependant on the outcome of the event.
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Old 29-10-2009, 09:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brett
I can't see the point in scalping as you're still dependant on the outcome of the event.

Free betting innit. Why risk money?
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  #6  
Old 29-10-2009, 11:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
I think it's definitely worth trading out before kick off, one early goal the wrong way and you can ruin everything.
I can see that if you a small number of bets and aim to make 1-2% on each one, you only need to come a cropper on one and you would take a big overall hit. Perhaps it would be best to spread the risk over a number of bets and monitor them carefully to make sure that everything is laid off ('traded out') before the event.
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Old 29-10-2009, 11:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brett
I can't see the point in scalping as you're still dependant on the outcome of the event.
I thought you used this system Brett?
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  #8  
Old 29-10-2009, 11:31 AM
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Am guessing Brett trades out to have even greens so doesn't care what the outcome is. It's just limiting variation and shouldn't make much, if any, difference over time really.

Guess the free bet method at least gives you something to cheer on but I'll be greening out I think
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Old 29-10-2009, 11:56 AM
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As long as you can engineer a 'no-lose- position in the vast majority of bets, and minimise your losses where you have them, then I don't think it makes a difference whether you stand to gain, say 2% one side and zero the other, or 1% on either. As you say, over time it shouldn't matter.
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  #10  
Old 29-10-2009, 01:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
I backed Murphy in the snooker tonight last night at 1.78, 1.79 and 1.8, looks like I should have waited as he's since been matched at 1.84 but am hoping he comes in to 1.75. Can see a lot of people wanting to oppose Hendry

Lowered my sights to 1.77 and had that matched for a 1% profit, now trying to back Murphy again at 1.78 as I think he'll come down still further, looks very much the kind of market with enough liquidity to keep recycling back / lay bets for a good proft, he'll probably drift and stay there now I've said that
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  #11  
Old 29-10-2009, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Am guessing Brett trades out to have even greens so doesn't care what the outcome is. It's just limiting variation and shouldn't make much, if any, difference over time really.

Guess the free bet method at least gives you something to cheer on but I'll be greening out I think

Yep. I have started greening out.

Still get a return albeit small, but there is no risk of losing or even breaking even. How it works - I don't know. But it does.
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  #12  
Old 29-10-2009, 02:17 PM
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I've done this stuff a few times.

I do have to ask though, how do you guys look for stuff that you think will come in? Is it just simply by back the favourite and hoping the odds come down?
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  #13  
Old 29-10-2009, 02:37 PM
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You need to be able to spot steamers and drifters but you're more than helped by the graphs Betfair provide. A good starting point would be to look at the projected SP and gauge whether the bet is overpriced or underpriced (for example, SP is 2.00 but current best offering is 2.50 or above).
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Old 29-10-2009, 02:38 PM
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And don't forget that if you have enough money behind you to begin with, just distort the market in your favour.
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Old 29-10-2009, 04:01 PM
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Yeah distorting the market on smaller ones is possible, does carry the risk that if it correct itself quickly you might have taken too short odds

Just put in a request to back United at 1.2, if matched am sure I can lay it at 1.19 or better for a 0.8%ish quick win (probably won't get it matched till Saturday now and have my money tied up till then!)
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Old 29-10-2009, 08:26 PM
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The best market for trading in my experience is the correct score market on strong home team favs.... for example Man Utd at home to Pompey

Bet on 2-0, 3-0, 4-0... then when first goal is scored lay off so all green.... it works most of the time anyways
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Old 29-10-2009, 08:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LLCOOLSTEVE
The best market for trading in my experience is the correct score market on strong home team favs.... for example Man Utd at home to Pompey

Bet on 2-0, 3-0, 4-0... then when first goal is scored lay off so all green.... it works most of the time anyways

Sightly screwed if Pompey were to score though
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Old 29-10-2009, 09:11 PM
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but unlikely

As with any trading you have to take a stand at one point
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Old 29-10-2009, 09:19 PM
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You're all mental - horse racing is where it's at.

If you're doing football, play the first goal markets and use statistics to help with the rest.
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Old 29-10-2009, 09:22 PM
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The only horse racing id trust for serious trading profit potential would be group races, and Ive made quite a bit of money just from backing horses
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