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  #21  
Old 29-10-2009, 10:25 PM
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Originally Posted by LLCOOLSTEVE
The only horse racing id trust for serious trading profit potential would be group races, and Ive made quite a bit of money just from backing horses
You can make money easily on any UK race if you're happy with 5% before commission. Too much liquidity not to be able to make money.

Also, it's surprisingly easy to make money on donkeys.
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  #22  
Old 29-10-2009, 10:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Brett
You can make money easily on any UK race if you're happy with 5% before commission. Too much liquidity not to be able to make money.

Also, it's surprisingly easy to make money on donkeys.

if you have a large enough starting bank then yes, lay them to high heaven
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  #23  
Old 30-10-2009, 06:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Brett
You're all mental - horse racing is where it's at.
spot on.
all about homework and IR.
sadly in Oz, only IR for now on city races (top class)
once they move to ALL meetings, i'll coin it and some.

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  #24  
Old 01-11-2009, 03:02 PM
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Well, not being into horse-racing, but being into football, I tried the 'back and lay' pre-event trading ("scalping"?) on nine matches that were played yesterday (Saturday 31st Oct 2009).

The original back bets were placed 2-3 days beforehand. The plan was to stake £10 each on a number of favourites, back them first and then leave a 'lay' bet for 2% below the 'backed' stake. EG. Back at 1.5, lay at 1.48. As long as the lay bet was taken (i.e. the price on the favourite team declined by 3% - 4%, allowing for the spread), this would produce a 2% return on all bets that won, and no loss on those that didn't. I hoped to lay off all bets at 2% margin, and if half of them came in I would make a 1% return with a guarantee of no loss. I was determined to lay off all bets before the event started to avoid the risk of losing my stake instead of just the margin. I still faced the risk that the price might move against me and I might lose on some (i.e. I would have to lay off at a price higher than my backed price).

This is what happened ...

£10 staked on the following 9 favourites:


AC Milan (home to Parma)
Backed 1.62
Laid 1.62
Result = Milan win
Profit = NIL


Juventus (home to Napoli)
Backed 1.6
Laid 1.58
Result = Juventus lose
Profit = NIL


Barcelona (away to Osasuna)
Backed 1.48
Laid 1.48
Result = Barcelona win
Profit = NIL


Real Madrid (home to Getafe)
Backed 1.52
Laid 1.5
Result = Real Madrid win
Profit = .19


Middlesborough (home to Plymouth)
Backed 1.5
Laid 1.48
Result = Middlesborough lose
Profit - NIL


Leeds (home to Yeovil)
Backed 1.44
Laid 1.42
Result = Leeds win
Profit = .19


Liverpool (away to Fulham)
Backed 1.94
Laid 1.92
Result = Liverpool lost
Profit = NIL


Chelsea (away to Bolton)
Backed 1.47
Laid 1.45
Result - Chelsea win
Profit after commission = .19


Man United (home to Blackburn)
Backed 1.19
Laid 1.24
Result = Man United win
Loss = .50


Total Stake = £70

Total Return = £70.07

Profit = 7p (0.1%)



Analysis

9 selections

6 won
3 lost

6 were backed and laid at 2% potential profit if they won
2 were laid off at NIL profit
1 was laid off at 5% potential loss if they won

Won 2% on 3 of 9
Lost 5% on 1 of 9
Even on the remaining 5


Conclusion

Instead of making the 1% I hoped for (70p on my £70), I actually made 0.1% (7p). This was largely because I lost on Man United - without this 50p loss, I would have made 0.8% (57p) instead of 0.1% (7p). Man United also offered the worst odds (of around 1.2).

All comments welcome!
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  #25  
Old 02-11-2009, 09:28 AM
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Louis, my first comment would be that those returns are incredibly small and might make you lose interest very quickly, I am now trying to increase my bank by 30 to 40% a month (maybe more once I get the hang of this), would have been successful in October but for the Chelsea disaster that cost me £95, oh well hopefully Nov will be better.

Rather than pick 7 games and just blindly back or lay I would sooner pick one game where either the price looked wrong or the weight of money indicated it might change in your favour.

Had another great X Factor last night boosting my bank by 4% which is a good start to the month.

By the way if you're trading any two outcome event (tennis / snooker etc but not football as that also has the draw as an option) then you have to use Betfair Mobile and here's why.

Decided that Murray was too long at 1.07-1.08 for his match tomorrow and am expecting / hoping for the price to come in to 1.05-1.06, clearly though it's important to get matched at 1.08 as if I can am pretty sure (barring any injury scares) that the worst outcome possible will be to not lose anything.

At 7am this morning there was £7k ahead of me to get matched at 1.08 and with the match tomorrow that would take a long time (unless the market shifted to 1.08-1.09). If you chose to lay Traver at 13.5 (the same as backing Murray at 1.08) then it looks as though there is over £600 ahead of you but this is not the case. Betfair crossmatches so if someone puts in a back at 1.08 in a 2 player market then a lay request at 13.5 automatically pops up though first priority will always go to people who actually ask to lay at 13.5 (similarly they would go to the back of the queue to get matched at a back of 1.08)

However, if you look at the market on the Betfair mobile product then the cross matching bets do not show up. That showed that at the time there was only £3 waiting to lay at 13.5. Laterly somone put up a lay at 14.0 but this got matched very quickly (people would rather lay at 14.0 than back at 1.07 which was the alternative). So that soon dissapeared and now my bet is in the process of being matched. I then need to decide whether to lay Murray at 1.07 or below or back Traver at 14.0 or bigger to guarantee a profit. Having said all that Murray will probably drift!!

Not sure if the above is clear but it's a very handy strategy to get longer prices matched in two horse races whether or not you are doing it to trade at a later date or not
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  #26  
Old 02-11-2009, 09:37 AM
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In a two-horse-race (ie football), I don't think you get the swing in the odds that you can get on the horses, Louis. For example, Oddschecker on Friday had a horse gone from 20/1 down to 5/1 (21.0 to 6.0) before the off.

By the way, Iphone has an application which allows you to place bets on Betfair whilst out and about. Called "Betfeather".
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  #27  
Old 02-11-2009, 09:43 AM
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That's true you don't, jumping on the back of horse gambles (or drifts) could be very good but am trying to steer clear of horses for now as the markets are a lot more volatile and require a lot more monitoring. If I horse has been backed in to 5/1 from 20/1 then there is no reason to think it will go to 4/1.
Numerous times I've taken a price on a gambled horse only to then see it go out again

If I can increase my bank by 1.5% a day with close to zero risk then for now am happy with that. Also when you find the right market you can back and lay continually for a lot more than your bank which is very satisfying indeed!

Markets with good liquidity but lots of gaps in the market (X Factor eviction or bottom two markets on Sundays is a great example) are easy pickings, just need to find more of those, horse racing on the morning of the meeting could be good and will certainly look into that at a later date.
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  #28  
Old 02-11-2009, 10:00 AM
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Live ODI cricket is worth a look.
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  #29  
Old 02-11-2009, 12:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Louis, my first comment would be that those returns are incredibly small and might make you lose interest very quickly, I am now trying to increase my bank by 30 to 40% a month (maybe more once I get the hang of this), would have been successful in October but for the Chelsea disaster that cost me £95, oh well hopefully Nov will be better.

Rather than pick 7 games and just blindly back or lay I would sooner pick one game where either the price looked wrong or the weight of money indicated it might change in your favour.
Cheers for the rely Finbar. The thing is, I follow football anyway, Palace of course , and football in general. The thing I like best about the back-and-lay pre-event thing is, it seems to be relatively hard to lose money. By making money on the margin, it seems that we're sort of doing what bookmakers do, and Betfair's small margins and large number of customers give room for this. So far, I've only gained tiny amounts, but I haven't actually lost. You say you're aiming for 30-40% return per month, but even one tenth of this (3%-4% per month) would quickly mount up over time. One thing I'm wondering is: is it always better to back first, then lay, and if not when should you lay first?

Last edited by Louis; 02-11-2009 at 12:29 PM.
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  #30  
Old 02-11-2009, 12:40 PM
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3-4% a month is too small to keep my interest, am also putting in about £150 a month to boost my bank so it 'should' be a good way to save money, am determined never to let a bet go in play again though. If I can hit some good weeks then doubling my bank over a month should be possible, problem with setting that kind of a target is that you end up making trades which are more based on guesswork rather than with confidence of making a profit.

Backing or laying first? It is certainly a lot more lucrative laying first (if odds on, backing first if odds against) as you can work with much bigger sums.

If your bank is £50 and you see a 1.05 shot which you think will drift then you can lay it for say £1000 to only risk an initial outlay of £50 (to then back it at 1.06 for say £990 for £9 profit), if you think it's going to come in then of course you can only back it for £50 before laying at 1.04 (for £50.50 to make 48p) you're clearly going to make a lot less.

Unfortunately I think it is generally a lot easier to spot a fav that will come in than one which will drift. Even if a 1.05 looks like it might drift you often have big players coming in and moving the price in (as happened when I laid Chelsea at 1.2 when it looked like it would drift), that happens a lot more than them coming in laying the fav and moving the price out.

Mind you I dodged a bullet at the weekend when my United bet at 1.2ish wasn't matched so I cancelled it, later saw that they drifted to 1.24. I think teams like Chelsea / Man City are a lot better to back with a view to laying later as their squads (especially Chelsea) have so much more cover. I imagine the United drift was to do with the uncertainty over Vidic and Ferdinand.

My Murray trade has stalled somewhat, have £300 waiting to be match at 1.07 (which I'm sure it will eventually and there is still £000's wanting to back him at 1.08) but imagine that as the live tennis action has started no one is looking at that market, oh well am sure it'll be matched later on tonight, got some more matched at 14.0 on Traver so should make £4 or £5 (1.25% ish of bank) so even if I don't get any more 14.0 lays matched on Traver which hopefully I can as am confident anything I put up at 1.07 to lay on Murray will be matched.

Think all this is definitely a case of learning which the low risk and profitable ones are, am looking forward to seeing if X Factor is as lucrative as it appears to be next week
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  #31  
Old 02-11-2009, 12:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
I dodged a bullet at the weekend when my United bet at 1.2ish wasn't matched so I cancelled it, later saw that they drifted to 1.24. I think teams like Chelsea / Man City are a lot better to back with a view to laying later as their squads (especially Chelsea) have so much more cover. I imagine the United drift was to do with the uncertainty over Vidic and Ferdinand
Man United is interesting. They cost me last week, because they were the only team where the odds drifted out rather than coming in, thus wiping out nearly all my profit. Yesterday I backed Chelsea, Barcelona and Man United for this week's Champions League games. Chelsea and Barcelona odds have already come down to match my lower 'lay', but once again Man United have drifted out and threaten to wipe out my profit. Maybe you get a lot of people backing Man United early, and then the price corrects itself later? Maybe Man United could be one to lay first?
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  #32  
Old 02-11-2009, 12:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brett
You can make money easily on any UK race if you're happy with 5% before commission. Too much liquidity not to be able to make money.

Also, it's surprisingly easy to make money on donkeys.
Several of you claim it's 'easy' to make money on horse-racing, and you mention:

Having a large bank
Laying 'donkeys'
Monitoring races 'in-running'

Would anyone like to explain their strategy a little, perhaps with an example?
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  #33  
Old 02-11-2009, 12:56 PM
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I would think it only be the case while their squad looks so apparently thin (maybe that's just my opinion). Not sure what happened on Saturday but I would be surprised if they drifted in the hours preceding the game as would expect some big bets to be blindly placed on United more than any other team.

Or maybe it's just that United are a bunch of w*nkers and their odds are equally as annoying
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Old 02-11-2009, 12:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Not sure what happened on Saturday but I would be surprised if they drifted in the hours preceding the game as would expect some big bets to be blindly placed on United more than any other team.
I waited until kick-off and the odds didn't come in.
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Old 02-11-2009, 01:02 PM
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I don't believe that having a large bank is an issue, surely it's much easier to get smaller amounts of money matched than large amounts.

Only issue I can see is the £2 minimum bet but then I know for a fact there are ways round that (not needed to do it myself but if anyone wants to know how I think a mate explained it on email a while ago so I can find it if you like)

I do think that there is a lot to be said for laying 16/1 plus shots as very often they'll go out to 25/1 in the 15mins or so before the race and the ones that come in will surely be outnumbered. Not sure if this could work backing blind though

In running I think is great fun but to make a long term profit very very hard to beat those with a time & bot advantage. Except for in running greyhounds on Sky where I swear if you lay every dog in every race at 1.2 you'll make a profit, some people back at that kind of price just if a dog is leading at the first bend. A pain though as there is no option on those markets to make the bets in play after the off, you have to do it manually.
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Old 02-11-2009, 01:07 PM
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Betting in running is bloody difficult unless you are watching the race live.

Anyone with an SIS account (£6K per year ) has a distinct advantage over those watching on normal TV though. With SIS you could watch a horse fall over and still take lay bets from punters watching on normal TV, I reckon.
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Old 02-11-2009, 01:12 PM
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Well maybe not on terrestrial Ch4 or BBC (not that BBC ever show any racing these days!) but they would have at least 3 or 4 seconds over ATR or any other digital channel, sure there are some figures on line to back that up
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Old 03-11-2009, 11:26 AM
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Man Utd's odds for the match v CSKA Moscow continue to drift, have now gone out from 1.35 to 1.45, threatening to blow any profit for the 'pre-match' speculation fund.
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Old 03-11-2009, 12:06 PM
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Blimey, they do seem to be drifting every game at the moment! Maybe you should trade out once you see drifts like that... Mind you they may well come back in again now and I can't see them going off much bigger than they are now.

Made £5.50 on the Murray game in the end, managed to get about £700 backed and layed in the end

Thought Beck was worth a lay at 13.5 against Djokovic, as soon as I put the request up someone took it and then tried to have £250 more at 13.5 on him

Luckily that also took all the 1.08 available (which I could only tell thanks to betfair mobile not showing the cross matching) so I have tried to lay Djokovic for my stake plus £700. If that gets matched then Beck is currently available to lay at 12.5 which would mean £4.26 profit guaranteed, or £6 if I can match him at 12.0. My £1k is now front of the queue of £21k so if the odds stay where they are I'll be matched quite soon...if

Not big numbers but looking good to get my bank from £380 to £550ish this month at this rate (which I am sure I won't keep up!!)
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Old 03-11-2009, 07:07 PM
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Lay 2 or three of the favourites at golf tournements every week ( apart from Tiger )

The top players odds in play are always too low even at points when winning the tournement is practically impossible -- especially Woods and Micklesen
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