Betfair trading

[Finbar]

Nice, good luck

Oh and i've noticed that if you lay a player off he wins (and you kick yourself) and if you don't lay a player off he doesn't win (and you kick yourself)

[Beckenham Boy]

Well my Betfair trading experiment went quite well. Would have been better if I had not layed off Simpson but I didn't think he had much chance to be honest so I'm happy in the end!

Simpson (winnings £247.50 - Layed off £215.00) profit £32.50

Toms (Bet £2.50 - Layed off £20) profit £17.50

GMac (Bet £5 - Layed off £34) profit £29.00

Kaymer (Bet £5 - Layed off £0) Loss £5.00

Choi (Bet £2 - Layed off £0) Loss £2 (Had a chance to lay off for about £5 profit after Rnd 2 but waited to see if he improved but went backwards so lost the chance)

Els (Bet £5 - Layed off £22) Profit £17

Byrd (Bet £5 - Layed off £0) Loss £5

Scwartzel (Bet £5 - Layed off £0) Loss £5

Z Johnson (Bet £5 - Layed off £0) Loss £5

D Johnson (Bet £5 - Layed off £0) Loss £5

All in all £69 profit less £3 commission

Might not have been so happy if Gmac had won after I layed off potential winnings of £600 after Round 1...

[Finbar]

Originally Posted by Beckenham Boy

Might not have been so happy if Gmac had won after I layed off potential winnings of £600 after Round 1...

Always the tricky part, I think it helps to know when you put your bets on whether they're trading bets (and what kind of odds you're hoping to trade at) and which bets are ones where you hope for a big return (so might only lay off at odds on) so you have an idea of your expectations from the start.

Or put some bets on with fixed odds bookies and just use Betfair for trading.

Good work though

[Finbar]

Right, need to watch my pennies again (not currently working) so think it's a good time to start non in-running trading on Betfair again.

Posting on here as it's a good way to keep a bit of discipline, otherwise I'm likely to just be lazy and use my Betfair account for normal bets which then totally screws with p/l, with the snooker coming up it might not be possible to avoid using my betfair account for those bets but will try to keep them separate.

Starting balance is £300.00, we'll see how I go. Trying to trade the Melbourne Storm vs West Tigers (starts in 3hrs). Aussie Rugby league the favourites don't seem to drift very often and there is almost always someone lumping on at whatever price is available in the 30mins before the off. Am trying to get matched at 1.17 for the whole £300. Currently £9k ahead of me so might be optimistic

A good result would be a £5 green on Melbourne and double that on the Tigers.

This could go terribly wrong but even if it does the losses won't be big (unless the worst happens which is Betfair going down at the wrong time, they seem to be better than they have been in that respect though, last one was just before Cheltenham and they made such a fuss about doing it am hopeful it's something they have under control, it is a concern though, at least am trying to back the odds on shot at the moment which means if I am caught out there is a good change the bet would win anyway)

It is quite possible that things won't work out and I don't have any bets on the game tonight, which would be a pretty boring start

I'll upload screenshots when I can be bothered

Target is 10% profit on bank each week

[Finbar]

I say non-in running, I might move green / red around in running to minimise losses or maximise / lock in profits but it'll mainly be pre event as that is a lot safer

[Finbar]

Arse, matched at 1.17 but now a huge amount at 1.16 to get through, would say I'll be making pennies on this at best, can't win 'em all, as long as I don't lose

[Finbar]

Layed back at 1.17 to trade out for zero profit / loss, couldn't even get matched at 7.0 for a tiny green, price didn't move in the last 3hrs! Oh well will just have to wait for more NRL on Friday though sure I'll find a market or two before then

[EagleinOz]

Finbar, seem to remember you mentioning trying the same in the run up to the start of golf majors. If that was you, did you have much joy; presumably there's a decent movement as people lump on in the run up?

[Finbar]

Originally Posted by EagleinOz

Finbar, seem to remember you mentioning trying the same in the run up to the start of golf majors. If that was you, did you have much joy; presumably there's a decent movement as people lump on in the run up?

Yeah in 2011 I had quite a bit of success trading the US Open and then again on the ladies Wimbledon straight after. I think I made most of my greens from seeing prices which would come in (requires a smaller bank) but I suspect it's a lot easier to get free greens on drifters (bear in mind that once you have, for example, a £300 liability on one player you can then rack up the same liability on other players without needing to have a bigger bank as only one player can win)

Below were my final positions, Rory won but I guess that's not really the important thing.

Originally Posted by Finbar

For my records my final positions last night

Mannasero +£419.20
Z Johnson +£384.40
Fowler +£264.95
Toms +£200
F Molinari +£200
Quiros +£100
Poults +£81.95
Mickelson +£70.70
Watney +£50
McIllroy +£48
MAJ +£2
Everyone else +£0

[Finbar]

Just had a bit of a bonus on the trading front, my main issue has always been that I want to use my Betfair account for non trading bets I can't do (or get the same value) elsewhere.

No longer an issue, my Blue Square account has been closed, and as they were taken over by Betfair but I get a 2nd Betfair account as a result, I can use my main one for trading (as it's connected to my phone mainly) and the 2nd one for those bets I can't do elsewhere

Am assuming I won't be able to get special offers on both accounts, will give it a go though (every week Betfair offer a 4/1 double on AFL and NRL on approx 6/4 shots for up to £13, be nice to do those on both accounts each week)

I could trade the Masters (or try to) but I already have bets made on it (before I decided to do the trading), might still see if I can get a few greens with any ease or not as no NRL till Friday

[Finbar]

Rumours that Melbourne Storm's star man Billy Slater (well one of their star men anyway) won't play on Saturday. Price has come in to 2.0 to back, 2.08 to lay, tempted to put in a back at 2.06 (or more likely lay of Rabbitohs at 1.93 or 1.94), no way they'll be outsiders on Saturday even if Slater is out (which I suspect he won't be)

Does mean tying up some or all of my bank but think it's worth it

[Finbar]

Have taken the £147 that was available at 2.0 (I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have lasted long and sometimes it's best not to stare a gifthorse in the mouth and get greedy) and have put in a £75 lay off the Rabbitohs at 1.95

Confident I won't have to take a loss

Well before I've even posted up this post my £75 was matched, then someone wanted 1.91 on the Storm so I went to trade out but missed it while mulling over what stake to put on and taking the screenshot

Hopefully get matched at 1.90 and make it into a good thing

[Finbar]

I put this in the betting thread but might be better here.

Basically Betfair are giving money away. They are offering odds of 4/1 on AFL and NRL doubles each week for what should be 6/4 shots or shorter.

By covering 3 of the 4 outcomes in the two games (the 4th outcome where Betfair get both the outcomes wrong is immaterial as it only takes 1 leg to lose a multi) you can guarantee £12 ($18) twice a week.

Only catch is that Betfair announce the matches either 8hrs (not a problem) or 3hrs (can be a problem especially if you're in the UK with time difference) before the first match.

I've just reactivated my wife's Betfair account and promised her she'll see her balance go up by £24 a week till the end of August by which time she'll have made around £500 (being out might mean I miss one or two though possibly not)

I think anyone with a Betfair account is mad if they don't do this (especially if in Aus). I've told my wife if she loses even 1p then I'll do a course of personal trainer sessions

This is what her balance will do if I don't miss any rounds by being out or away



This is the offer, it's every round and the AFL one will be up from 10am tomorrow (1am UK time) max stake $20 which is what returns are based on.
Only 'risk' is Betfair withdraw the offer or limit the stakes of those accounts who are locking in a profit each week. I don't think that's likely and even if it does happen you can just take your money out again.



and here is the staking plan you would have used to lock in $18 / £12 on this week's AFL double

Fremantle played Essendon
Geelong played Carlton
Betfair offered 5.0 on the Fre / Gee double (actual odds 2.34)
As above no point covering Ess / Carl double
As it was Essendon beat Fremantle so you would have won $17.91

If anyone is doing it and wants me to put up staking plan for each round then let me know

[Finbar]

The only other risk I can think of (apart from Betfair limiting stakes) is that the odds enhanced to 5.0 are increased from the current 2.4ish to 3.0ish, would clearly dent potential profit, still only dent any profit rather than make any losses

[Finbar]

Well eventually laid off at 2.02 for £8.40 profit, not great but it'll do

Will go up by £12 tomorrow with the 4/1 double thing above, hopefully trade as well

[Finbar]

Ok made £8.40 on the Melbourne game
Made £18.18 on the no lose Betfair double special (it was £7 guaranteed no matter what result, or £18.18 if their selection won and stake back if it didn't, it did)
Made 10p on other trades which didn't come off (had Sharks +£21 against Sea Eagles +10p but the Eagles won unfortunately)

Also had to deposit £34.83 to have enough funds to do the no lose double

Profit for the week of 7.98%, not bad but would have been pretty miserly had the Betfair no lose multi been a push rather than a win. Current balance £361.55 from an opening £334.83

[Finbar]

Ok, trying to get some free greens on the World Snooker, same way I did for the US Open Golf and Wimbledon ladies tennis in 2011, very satisfying and you can get some really meaningful greens if things go well, clearly if someone picks up an injury or something there is the risk you can lose out big time

Draw was done last night, I think it's only cemented Ronnie's good draw, he couldn't have asked for a better 1st round draw and all the players in his 1/4 could have been a lot worse.

I almost took 7.6 before the draw was out but left it, he's now there to back at 7.2 and with not a lot at 6.8 in front of me am happy to make that trade. Decent amount at 7.4 which makes a drift less likely. I would be surprised if his price didn't plunge in the lead up to the game, both outright and match
price, will probably lay Campbell if I have the spare funds to do so

I've put in a lay at 5.6 for the match, pretty sure that will go out and I can nick a few quid, either locking in the profit or getting a nice green on Campbell in case Ronnie's head isn't in it (possible but unlikely, think he'll thrash him so might put all green on Ronnie if I have that option)

[Finbar]

Already had a free green on Allen of £95ish before I started this trading hence his figure is different, also backed Selt at 1000.0 which am trying to lay off for a free green there (laid off £2 of it and will lay off the rest at some point before his game hopefully)

[Finbar]

Not many trades again this week, the outright on the Ronnie looked like it might go the other way so got out of that, still no losers though and with an AFL no lose trade I made another 6.43% to put me to 14.92% increase on bank in after 2 weeks





Should have had a £20 green on Mark Davis in the snooker (currently 6-3 up) but got greedy, market went the other way and now I only have £7 green on him

[Finbar]

Betfair offering enhanced doubles every day on the snooker

Today's games, Higgins vs Davis (with Davis 6-3 up) and Poomjaeng vs Maguire (from the start)

Today they enhanced Higgins (2.6) and Maguire (1.17) to 3.75

With that and some trading of both matches (I had a £30 green on Poomjaeng and £7 green on Davis, zero both other players)

mags / higs return£93.75
poom / higs return £97.65
poom / dav return £186.9
mags / dav return £89.25

Total outlayed £83.93

Davis 7-4 and Poomjaeng 2-0 so a very good chance of securing £50 profit if Poomjaeng can keep his nose in front, he was a 6.8 shot at the start of the match, looks quite good though and Maguire not looking convincing yet but very early days