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  #61  
Old 23-04-2010, 08:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Louis
I suppose the only point laying a 16-1 bet would be if you thought it was LESS likely than 16-1.

Example:

Stoke City to win the Premier League in season 2010-2011: 16/1

That would be a stupid bet to take, but a good one to lay, because the real chance of Stoke City winning the Premier League is less than 16/1, more like 1000/1. So you could risk £160 on this bet safe in the knowledge that you would get your £10 for minimal risk.
Bit annoying to wave goodbye to £160 though for about a year, just to make £10. Still, if £160 to you is not much money then yeh, that is a good bet.

Are those really the odds?!
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  #62  
Old 23-04-2010, 08:40 AM
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If those were really the odds I would currently be remortgaging my house to lay as much as possible
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  #63  
Old 23-04-2010, 08:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cpfc4evandeva
Bit annoying to wave goodbye to £160 though for about a year, just to make £10. Still, if £160 to you is not much money then yeh, that is a good bet.

Are those really the odds?!
Unfortunately not

To take an example from Chelsea v Stoke this Sunday, Stoke are 500/1 with Paddy Power to beat Chelsea 5-0, although only 100/1 with Coral and Stan James.

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If you think the odds of Stoke beating Chelsea 5-0 are around 500/1, and someone was prepared to back this bet at 100/1 or less, it would make sense to accept their bet.
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  #64  
Old 23-04-2010, 09:06 AM
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yes but Paddy Power are only offering 100/1 for you to back it with them, not to lay it, hence you need to find an exchange that will offer a better price where you can't lay it and as they don't quote 5-0 that can't happen

People who lay correct scores on Betfair will be laying almost all the scores to engineer themselves a small profit margin
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  #65  
Old 23-04-2010, 03:06 PM
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Andy Topham mentioned this in his column in The Sun today. William Hill are offerering 25-1 on Bristol City to win the Championship next season following Steve Coppell's appointment as manager. Couldn't find it anywhere on their site, but here's an article quoting Graham Sharp from Hills -

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Andy Topham says 'it's a poor league and that price will be cut for sure', and if you take into account City reaching the play-off final 2 years ago, and Steve Coppell's record with 'lesser' unfashionable clubs, the price does look good.

This makes this bet attractive as a trading possibility over next season. You could take the 25-1 now, and lay it off if City are doing well at some point, for, say, 10-1, thereby guaranteeing a profit.
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  #66  
Old 23-04-2010, 03:17 PM
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Can equally see them totally underperforming from the word go, not one I would be interested in

Sad that Steve looks like going there
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  #67  
Old 23-04-2010, 03:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Can equally see them totally underperforming from the word go, not one I would be interested in

Sad that Steve looks like going there
He's already there - it was announced at a press conference yesterday -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/b/bristol_city/8629045.stm
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  #68  
Old 23-04-2010, 03:24 PM
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Boo, been too caught up in the snooker to see that
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  #69  
Old 23-04-2010, 03:25 PM
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Finbar Finbar Finbar, should I be backing Steve Davis at evens as he is 8-4 up, then maybe laying off when he gets to 10 frames?
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  #70  
Old 23-04-2010, 07:58 PM
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tryed my 'system' today
backed around ten races a tenner on each punt
laid on the fav only if it was 3-1 or less
and then laid off anything at between 12 and 16-1
so if the fav came in my bet was covered and id just be even
only 4 favorites came in so im up over a ton today (covers my mistake yesterday) obviously im very exposed to the long shot winning but i might try this for awhile, i guess i could handle one long shot coming in every now and again once ive built up a pot, seems a hard way to make money but if i make a ton aday thats 35odd grand a year, i could live on that!
not sure how that chap made 20mill thou...........
am i on to something here? guess ill need alot of luck
if 2 or more longshots come in on the same day it would hurt
but i guess making a consistant £20 on each race i lay aint bad if i stick to ten a day even if 1 in 3 favs come in still a ton aday even if i allow for the odd blip........any thoughts here? not very exciting i know but im not used to much luck when i bet, i guess i could lose my float and walk away if the worse happens early doors. if i get a float ill stick to my system and not increase the bets to much, last time i turned 50quid into 300 twice following my mates tips line but lost the lot when i went from betting fivers to twentys
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Old 23-04-2010, 08:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by disco mixx kidd
any thoughts here?
I don't bet on horses. But why not scale your stakes right down to, say £1 instead of £10, while you test your system? If you lose, you lose a lot less. If you win consistently, and are confident you can do it profitably, then gradually increase your stakes. Also, try to resist the temptation to put more money in and chase your losses. Good luck
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  #72  
Old 23-04-2010, 09:50 PM
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£2 is the minimum bet but yeah maybe i should
i was exposed to loses of around a grand today and made a ton luckily
but alot of risk

does anyone think im missing something obvious here?
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  #73  
Old 23-04-2010, 10:06 PM
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how much did u deposit?!
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Old 23-04-2010, 10:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by disco mixx kidd
£2 is the minimum bet but yeah maybe i should
i was exposed to loses of around a grand today and made a ton luckily
but alot of risk

does anyone think im missing something obvious here?
That the person who said he won 20 mil with that system was lying, betfair have said that noone has ever won anywhere near the kind of money he claims to have won on betfair.

Any system like this is based on complete luck, especially if you aren't doing research on your horses like "the 20m winner" was.

In general you will have more winning days than losing days, but when you have a bad losing day you will lose massively.

In general systems don't really work, if you insist on trying this made up one, try it with lower stakes as Louis suggests.

Anyway - good luck
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  #75  
Old 24-04-2010, 09:16 AM
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thnx lads, yeah i realise the NoTW sorry was fake but i like the idea
and it is true only 1 in 3 favs come in
not sure how many 16-1 shots come in thou, sure i will find out soon.......
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Old 24-04-2010, 10:55 AM
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Quote:
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i was exposed to losses of around a grand today and made a ton
Ideally, start as small as you can. And - only bet (or expose yourself to) what you are prepared to lose
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Old 24-04-2010, 11:13 AM
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Get on Easyodds lays of the day see the stats and winnings in the last year for yourself

Andy Newton’s Daily Lays 2010

Today's Selection(s)

1.40 Market Rasen: GILBARRY

3.25 Ripon: HALLA SAN

4:15 Sandown: CROWDED HOUSE

6:35 Haydock: DANDEREK

7:05 Haydock: KIDLAT



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**PLEASE NOTE** - Although every effort is made to select horses at a respectable laying price the odd selection can drift markedly in the betting. I know a lot of followers have different staking plans and rules, but if a pick drifts out of your comfort-zone (For me - 13.0+ on Betfair 1-2 mins before the off - NO BET) it's certainly not worth risking it, and remember there's always another day!


Don't forget - you can contact me on andrewn@easyodds.com if you want to ask me anything or have any feedback on the site in general

Key Steps
# 1 - Get selection
# 2 - Place bet 1-2 minutes before the off time
# 3 - If the price drifts out too high - NO BET, for me 13.0+ (12/1) NO BET

Monthly Totals 2010 - Win Only

Jan 10 +275 Feb 10 -£762.50
Mar 10 +637.50

Monthly Totals 2009 - Win Only

Jan 09 +£350 Feb 09 +£1,237.50
Mar 09 +£375 Apr 09 +£2,362.50
May 09 +£2,036.50 June 09 +£3,265.00
July 09 -£400.00 Aug 09 +£1,375.00
Sept 09 +£787.50 Oct 09 -£464.00
Nov 09 -£1,333.00 Dec 09 -£1,708.00
2009 YEAR END TOTAL = £7,884
Monthly Totals 2008 - Win Only

Jan 08 +£2,950 Feb 08 +£3,500
Mar 08 +£1,000 Apr 08 +£217
May 08 +£2,217 June 08 +£3,125
July 08 +£750 Aug 08 +£967
Sept 08 -£983 Oct 08 -£2,353
Nov 08 +£2,750 Dec 08 -£1,999

2008 YEAR END TOTAL = £12,141

Click here to view 2009 results in more detail
Click here to view 2008 results in more detail

#

If you want to find out more or ask Andy anything please mail him at andrewn@easyodds.com

Results are show to £100 level stake - both win and place

*Note* - Commission (Norm between 2-5%) is not taken out of winnings



Date Time/Course Horse Result SP Return Profit/Loss
PAST RESULTS 2010
1 Jan 10 2.00 South STORMY SUMMER 1ST 3/1 -300 £-300
9 Jan 10 1.55 Kemp MR DEAL UP 5/1 100 £-200
10 Jan 10 3.05 Ling ART MARKET 1ST 4/1 -400 £-600
13 Jan 10 7.15 Kemp BAWAARDI UP 4/1 100 £-500
15 Jan 10 4.50 Wolver MISS FIREFLY UP 13/2 100 £-400
15 Jan 10 7.20 Wolver AAMAN 2ND 15/2 100 £-300
16 Jan 10 12.45 Hunt KILSHANNING UP 9/1 100 £-200
19 Jan 10 4.50 Wolves LYRICAL INTENT 1ST 7/2 -350 £-550
20 Jan 10 1.50 Wolves SILKEN PROMISE UP 4/1 100 £-450
21 Jan 10 12.30 Ling PARTY IN THE PARK UP 7/2 100 £-350
24 Jan 10 2.00 Kemp RESTFUL ANGEL UP 7/2 100 £-250
24 Jan 10 3.45 Mk Rasen AMIR PASHA UP 4/1 100 £-150
24 Jan 10 4.15 Mk Rasen YOUNG BUDDY UP 7/2 100 £-50
24 Jan 10 4.25 Tow YOUNG BUDDY 2ND 3/1 100 £50
25 Jan 10 5.40 Wolves JOIN UP UP 11/4 100 £150
26 Jan 10 2.10 Leic RINCE DONN UP 15/2 100 £250
27 Jan 10 3.40 Hunt BALLABROOK UP 3/1 100 £350
27 Jan 10 4.20 Hunt VICTORY SNURGE UP 7/2 100 £450
28 Jan 10 3.30 Wolver TARALEENO 1ST 11/4 -275 £175
29 Jan 10 2.55 Chep RAISE YOU FIVE 2ND 5/2 100 £275
1 Feb 10 2.05 Wolver MISS FIREFLY 1ST 5/1 -500 -£225
1 Feb 10 3.15 Wolver SAKILE 2ND 7/2 100 -£125
2 Feb 10 1.10 Ling ESPY 2ND 4/1 100 -£25
3 Feb 10 1.55 Exet JACKERS UP 4/1 100 £75
3 Feb 10 3.40 Exet ANAY TURGE UP 7/2 100 £175
3 Feb 10 4.00 Ling COOL ZERO 1ST 9/4 -225 -£50
4 Feb 10 3.20 Win LINDY LOU UP 7/2 100 £50
5 Feb 10 2.20 Ling BUBBLY BRAVEHEART 1ST 5/2 -250 -£200
5 Feb 10 3.30 Ling ANJOMARBA UP 11/4 100 -£100
6 Feb 10 2.20 Weth SA SUFFIT 1ST 4/1 -400 -£500
10 Feb 10 6.10 Kemp MIDNIGHT BAY UP 5/1 100 -£400
11 Feb 10 2.10 Hunt CESIUM UP 7/2 100 -£300
11 Feb 10 6.30 Kemp MUSASHI UP 5/1 100 -£200
12 Feb 10 6.15 Wolves FLAXEN LAKE 2ND 11/8 100 -£100
12 Feb 10 7.45 Wolves RIDE A WHITE SWAN 3RD 5/1 100 £0
13 Feb 10 4.30 War GALOSHES 3RD 9/4 100 £100
13 Feb 10 7.50 Wolver TOOLENTIDHAAR UP 12/1 100 £200
15 Feb 10 2.10 Wolver STRABOE 1ST 7/1 -700 -£500
15 Feb 10 2.40 Wolver ESPY 1ST 3/1 -300 -£800
16 Feb 10 4.10 Newc SAMMY SIDERMAN UP 7/2 100 -£700
17 Feb 10 2.30 Ling VALKYRIE UP 7/2 100 -£600
17 Feb 10 3.20 Muss ORSIPPUS 1ST 4/1 -400 -£1,000
17 Feb 10 4.40 Leic KILLFINNAN CASTLE UP 9/1 100 -£900
17 Feb 10 7.40 Kemp EXCEED POWER 2nd 7/2 100 -£800
19 Feb 10 6.45 Wolver DUBRAVANY UP 4/1 100 -£700
23 Feb 10 2.20 Taunt ROMNEY MARSH UP 5/1 100 -£600
23 Feb 10 2.30 South OVERLAW UP 6/4 100 -£500
23 Feb 10 4.10 Ling LADY KENT 1ST 11/8 -137.50 -£637.50
24 Feb 10 4.55 Ling CANDYFLOSS GIRL 1ST 4/1 -400 -£1,037.50
1 Mar 10 2.30 Here PLENTY OF CHAT UP 7/2 100 -£937.50
1 Mar 10 3.00 Here OVERLAW 1ST 5/1 -500 -£1,437.50
2 Mar 10 2.00 Catt NIGHTBOAT TO CARIO UP 4/1 100 -£1,337.50
3 Mar 10 2.30 Wolves SPOOF MASTER UP 8/1 100 -£1,237.50
3 Mar 10 3.10 Folk WIESENFURST 2ND 11/4 100 -£1,137.50
5 Mar 10 4.45 Ling SAPPHIRE PRINCE 1ST 4/1 -400 -£1,537.50
5 Mar 10 5.15 Ling KNIGHTFIRE UP 11/2 100 -£1,437.50
8 Mar 10 3.40 Strat PLAYERS PLEASE UP 7/2 100 -£1,337.50
9 Mar 10 3.00 Exet SALONTYRE 3RD 13/2 100 -£1,237.50
10 Mar 10 3.40 Font SEAN THORNTON UP 7/1 100 -£1,137.50
10 Mar 10 4.40 Font KEEPHOLDIN UP 5/2 100 -£1,037.50
12 Mar 10 5.40 Ayr DAUNTSEY BAY UP 5/2 100 -£937.50
14 Mar 10 3.30 War WAR FOOTING 2ND 7/1 100 -£837.50
14 Mar 10 4.30 War SUPREME KEANO UP 5/1 100 -£737.50
15 Mar 10 3.50 Taunt VICS WORLD 2ND 7/1 100 -£637.50
15 Mar 10 4.30 Plump HONOUR’S DREAM 2ND 13/2 100 -£537.50
15 Mar 10 5.20 Taunt LEPIDO UP 10/3 100 -£437.50
16 Mar 10 1.55 South SIR GEORGE 2ND 7/2 100 -£337.50
17 Mar 10 4.55 Hunt PALOS CONTI 1ST 7/2 -350 -£687.50
17 Mar 10 5.40 South NABEEDA UP 7/2 100 -£587.50
22 Mar 10 3.30 Plump RINCE DONN UP 3/1 100 -£487.50
22 Mar 10 3.40 Kelso STORMIN EXIT 2ND 6/4 100 -£387.50
23 Mar 10 3.40 Kemp WOOLFALL TREASURE UP 4/1 100 -£287.50
23 Mar 10 3.50 War WAR FOOTING UP 10/3 100 -£187.50
25 Mar 10 8.20 Kemp SUNNY SPELLS UP 6/1 100 -£87.50
26 Mar 10 2.20 Newb BLUEGUN UP 11/2 100 £12.50
26 Mar 10 5.40 Wolves KNIGHTFIRE 1ST 13/8 -162.50 -£150
26 Mar 10 6.40 Wolves PRINCESS MANDY UP 3/1 100 -£50
27 Mar 10 4.40 Strat CAPTAIN SMOOTHY UP 2/1 100 £50
29 Mar 10 2.20 Wolves SEASIDER UP 6/1 100 £150
29 Mar 10 3.50 Wolves BREATHLESS KISS UP 3/1 100 £250
30 Mar 10 3.00 Font MISS SAFFRON 1ST 7/2 -350 -£100
31 Mar 10 5.20 Here ABBEY DORE 1ST 3/1 -300 -£400
1 Apr 10 4.00 Lud HERONS WELL UP 3/1 100 -£300
3 Apr 10 4.05 Hay BLAZING DIVA UP 6/1 100 -£200
5 Apr 10 3.25 Yar BIG BOOM UP 3/1 100 -£100
5 Apr 10 4.30 Hunt LADY FLORENCE UP 7/1 100 £0
5 Apr 10 4.50 Plump BEAU LAKE UP 2/1 100 £100
5 Apr 10 5.10 Yar CAPEABILITY UP 3/1 100 £200
6 Apr 10 2.10 South MACKINTOSH UP 5/2 100 £300
6 Apr 10 3.20 Weth YOUNG BUDDY UP 11/4 100 £400
7 Apr 10 5.00 Ling RIDE A WHITE SWAN UP 14/1 100 £500
7 Apr 10 5.10 Catt NABRINA UP 5/2 100 £600
7 Apr 10 8.30 Kemp MOTTY'S GIFT 1ST 11/1 -1,100 -£500
8 Apr 10 2.50 Leic TOM FOLAN UP 15/8 100 -£400
8 Apr 10 6.20 Wolver COLONEL SHERMAN 2nd 5/4 100 -£300
9 Apr 10 6.15 Wolver ROY BUOY UP 8/1 100 -£200
10 Apr 10 3.00 Chep HEART SPRINGS 3rd 14/1 100 -£100
13 Apr 10 5.00 Yar CALZAGHE UP 7/2 100 £0
14 Apr 10 7.05 Kemp COLONEL SHERMAN 1ST 3/1 -300 £-300
15 Apr 10 9.10 Kemp MARKEHSA UP 2/1 100 £-200
16 Apr 10 2.50 Ayr FEDERSTAR 1st 3/1 -300 £-500
16 Apr 10 3.25 Ayr CHANINBAR UP 7/2 100 £-400
16 Apr 10 7.20 Chelt GO WEST UP 12/1 100 £-300
17 Apr 10 3.45 Bangor SILVER SPINNER UP 3/1 100 £-200
17 Apr 10 5.05 Ayr MONT PRESENT 3rd 3/1 100 £-100
17 Apr 10 6.35 Nott TILSWORTH GLENBAY UP 7/2 100 £0
17 Apr 10 7.40 Nott BUZZ BIRD UP 10/1 100 £100
19 Apr 10 5.15 Pont DAREDEVIL DAN 3rd 3/1 100 £200
19 Apr 10 5.25 Pont STAR GALAXY UP 17/2 100 £300
20 Apr 10 2.10 Wolver CHESHIRE LADY 3rd 8/1 100 £400
20 Apr 10 2.40 Wolver CORDELL UP 11/2 100 £500
21 Apr 10 3.10 Catt FIRETRAP UP 6/1 100 £600
21 Apr 10 4.45 South OVERLAW UP 7/2 100 £700
21 Apr 10 6.50 Kemp CAVITIE 2nd 4/1 100 £800
21 Apr 10 6.25 South ETHIOPIA UP 6/1 100 £900
21 Apr 10 7.20 Kemp ON TERMS 1ST 7/2 -350 £550
22 Apr 10 4.30 Font COUNT BORIS UP 9/4 100 £650
23 Apr 10 3.35 Wolver BAJAN PRIDE 1ST 8/1 -800 -£150
23 Apr 10 4.05 Wolver LAND HAWK UP 4/1 100 -£50
23 Apr 10 5.45 Chep QUO VIDEO 1st 7/2 -350 -£400
23 Apr 10 6.15 Chep COSACK DANCER 2nd 3/1 100 -£300
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  #78  
Old 24-04-2010, 11:24 AM
Finbar's Avatar
Finbar Finbar is offline
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Location: Brisvegas
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Finbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mine
There is no faster way to the poor house than following a tipping service.

Step 1 Set up 10 or more tipping services
Step 2 Wait till one or two of them show a decent long term profit
Step 3 Set up subscription service / phone tipping service to those which make a profit advertising auditted proof that each horse was tipped up

Simple
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  #79  
Old 24-04-2010, 11:29 AM
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rainbow_child rainbow_child is offline
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rainbow_child Sam the man is hererainbow_child Sam the man is hererainbow_child Sam the man is hererainbow_child Sam the man is hererainbow_child Sam the man is hererainbow_child Sam the man is hererainbow_child Sam the man is hererainbow_child Sam the man is hererainbow_child Sam the man is hererainbow_child Sam the man is hererainbow_child Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
There is no faster way to the poor house than following a tipping service.

Step 1 Set up 10 or more tipping services
Step 2 Wait till one or two of them show a decent long term profit
Step 3 Set up subscription service / phone tipping service to those which make a profit advertising auditted proof that each horse was tipped up

Simple
The difference being this is a free service and not one you are paying for!

The winning stats are updated daily on the site if you don't believe how good they are follow them without betting for a bit.

I'm well in profit I have been following them for the last 2years easy £££
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  #80  
Old 24-04-2010, 11:42 AM
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Finbar Finbar is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Brisvegas
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Finbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mine
In which case good work
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