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  #1261  
Old 28-06-2015, 11:55 AM
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So here is the p&l summary, 2015 already surpassed 2014, as I said it looks like I'll be losing GBP 150 in the Sri Lanka test match unless Pakistan can somehow win, or I do some good trading between day 4 and 5. The June figure will be adjusted but given my activity on this thread recently I should probably update while I have the motivation

Hopefully I can stick to mainly cricket but find some good Wimbledon trades in the next couple of weeks to keep me ticking over

Still not sure how what I do is showing long term profitability, happy it is though

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  #1262  
Old 29-06-2015, 03:58 PM
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Still not sure how what I do is showing long term profitability, happy it is though
I think you mean you don't know why you are winning ... Have you ever tried to teach someone else to trade? Teaching is often a good way of learning, I think. Ultimately I'm not sure it's important to know why are winning - as long as you keep your discipline, and can recognise when you are losing.

I think some of it is probably finding what works and sticking to it, even if you don't quite understand it. If you are better at some sports than others, then stick to those ...
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  #1263  
Old 30-06-2015, 12:11 AM
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Yep you're right, be nice to know why though as most logic says that not knowing sports inside out (which is certainly the case with cricket, by far my most profitable sport) isn't a way to win long term, I guess I'm betting mainly on the numbers though

Not taught anyone, doesn't appeal as I'd worry about them losing and what I do is often more hunch / instinct based, I think judging market sentiment is what I do best

Turned the cricket -150 into a 200 profit, had Pakistan won, or the rain had come it would have been 500+, still good, there was a huge Sri Lanka drift (presume during a rain storm) which I tailed, laying SL at 1.25 to 1.35 and laying the draw at 3.4 down to 2.8, hence the big Pakistan green (3000 at the start, though I took some when they got 2 wickets in 2 balls)

Then lost 245 on Wimbledon, traded the Kokkanakis match, he has been ill and I thought he'd drift, his odds came right in. I decided to chance it, follow the money and leave a small green on him, big red on Mayer and hopefully move it around in running, Mayer won in straight sets so I never got the chance. Should never have got involved for the stakes I did, or at all, lesson learned. Not giving up on Wimbledon but might pick games with a 1.3 or shorter fav, less risk and more liquidity generally

Might also put some stats of how each sport has done over the last couple of years, suspect only cricket will show any significant profit, will be interesting
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  #1264  
Old 12-06-2016, 09:40 PM
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Blimey, almost a year since I posted on this thread. Not had a great year (outside of betting) so really not focussed on this so much, results have been very up and down, mainly down, still turned a profit for 2015 somehow, as I have done every year since I started in 2012 (I think it was, stats are at work).

I'll post up my very ugly p&l later, lots of red. I honestly think that posting on this thread massively helps keep my discipline.

Made some great money trading the draw in the test yesterday, backed at 3.4+ for GBP 1500 and layed back at 2.6-2.8ish. Price remained very steady until shortly before 11am when it came crashing in

Just gone in again at 2.48, if it's raining at 11am (as is forecast) then can see that going odds on very quickly, if no rain then it will drift but as rain is forecast, Eng require 10 wickets and SL require 330 odd runs

Also hoping to trade under/over 2.5 goals in the Euros, or at least the early kick offs as am worried about oversleeping for the 5am starts, not ruling those out though.

Really surprised I still have a GBP bank, especially after the last year, not had any income in GBP for over 5yrs so if it does run out I'll need to convert it to AUD I think, which I'd rather not do
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  #1265  
Old 13-06-2016, 05:38 AM
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Well today is proving quite fruitful, having backed at 2.48 the price came in to 2.3ish pretty soon after, was hoping to hold out for the draw to go odds on, in the end the draw came in to 2.14 then drifted out again (I had 400 more matched at 2.36), then when it came back in again I managed to lay the draw at 2.12 and back England at 2.18 and 2.26. No real regrets as both times there wasn't really much liquidity so when matched they may have been bigger than I kind of deserved.

About 10mins later the draw was indeed matched at a shade of odds on which was a shame. The main reason I bailed out was that rain wasn't forecast till 11am (start time), had that come slightly later the draw could have drifted right out, as I don't trust SL not to collapse I would have certainly traded out before then.

My current position is Eng +370, SL +1700 and the draw +660 (all after commish). I could trade out for 575 profit (after commish) but will keep it as it is for now,

I actually think that if there is play SL will be all out for the win (run rate shouldn't be a problem at 3 an over were the rain to hold off), they could also knock that off in 50-60 or so overs if required so I might bump up that green to well over a grand, if they come close can have a lay in there at 2.0 or something. Mind you they might also just want to avoid the whitewash

It really is a shame there isn't test cricket every week, I seem to win on pretty much every match. Rain always helps

Screenshots etc tonight when I get back from work
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  #1266  
Old 13-06-2016, 05:42 AM
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Ok I've gone in again, 7k trying to back the draw at 1.9 so layed Eng at 2.24 for 800
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  #1267  
Old 13-06-2016, 07:17 AM
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It really is a shame there isn't test cricket every week, I seem to win on pretty much every match.
What about 50 over, 20 over or domestic 3 or 5 day games?
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  #1268  
Old 13-06-2016, 08:14 AM
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Nope, nothing comes close to test cricket, partly to do with the fact I have time to recover losses but for some reason the market just seems to want to the way I think it will (more often than not, or often enough to be profitable).

This was my best ever though, will post up all my traded tests since I began. Forgot to send my spreadsheet home so will have to do that tomorrow, will give me something to do at work
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  #1269  
Old 13-06-2016, 09:11 AM
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Ok here is how this test progressed

Traded it Friday before the 2nd day, with all the rain forecast I thought the draw might come in, it didn't so was 62 red all the way



Didn't think too much of it, not the worst trade (especially by recent standards) until on Sunday morning (Saturday was far too big a drinking day to contemplate trading) when I thought I'd see what I could to recoup my losses.

The draw had a few pennies at 3.55 and with Google weather and my iPhone both showing rain all morning I thought that certainly worth a gamble. As there was no real money to back the draw I instead layed England at 1.56ish and had some on the draw a bit later at 3.4. You can see the times from the screenshots, 8pm was the expected start time and I had no intention of going in play (though if play started late then happy days)

Here is mid afternoon, nothing really happened though my GBP 62 red now a potential 37 red which was better than nothing



By 7.30pm much better, could trade out for green



Start delayed so draw odds come in further



10 mins later I start to lay the draw at 2.64 to 2.76ish



Then final position for the night as follows



Will post up todays shots a bit later, hoping they don't come out too big...
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  #1270  
Old 13-06-2016, 09:12 AM
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hmm pretty big, the upright pics not so bad so will choose those where possible
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  #1271  
Old 13-06-2016, 09:47 AM
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OK, onto today, mostly documented above so I'll just post the pics, looking like a GBP 700 profit assuming it finishes a draw, shame SL are highly unlikely to have a chance to win me the big money (basically was laying either the draw or England so SL green just going up and up)

Still it's my best ever trade so very happy

Again you can follow the times at the top of the phone, 9hrs ahead of the UK and now 20mins till the start, though with the covers still on it will certainly not start on time, if at all

First trade before work


Accidently hit the trade button, luckily just a back of SL matched


Lunchtime and a very nice drift on England


Started to chip away and back England


I go back in when the GBP 6k tries to back the draw at 1.9, by laying Eng at 2.22 and 2.24 for GBP 1k



Laying draw (1.55-1.7ish) and backing England (2.7ish)


and where we are now (the reason my balance is almost zero is because I transferred the money to my Aus wallet to trade the NRL, though in the end didn't but wish I had as the Sharks drift I though might happen, did)
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