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  #1  
Old 21-03-2011, 01:03 PM
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Snooker betting

2011 World Championships starts next month, draw done today.

Robertson vs Trump is a great match to get us started, that one will start 10am on the first day as Robbo is defending champ.

Ronnie will have to play every day from middle Saturday onwards to win, some might think that suits him but personally I think it would mean he is bound to throw in a bad session at some point, normally what ends up costing him the title.

Ding looks to be the stand out bet to me, in the best 1/4 and 1/2 bearing in mind Selby is not playing at his best and Robbo is beatable. Betfred still 10/1 about him which I've taken but I don't see that lasting too long.

I think Higgins will be the one to beat, he's been rock solid since coming back, but drawing Lee in round 1 (along with Day the worst draw possible) and being in the same half as Ronnie and Williams has certainly made life tough for him.

The odds
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The draw

Neil Robertson (1) v Judd Trump
Marco Fu (16) v Martin Gould
Graeme Dott (9) v Mark King
Ali Carter (8) v Dave Harold

Ding Junhui (5) v Jamie Burnett
Peter Ebdon (12) v Stuart Bingham
Stephen Hendry (13) v Joe Perry
Mark Selby (4) v Jimmy Robertson

Mark Williams (3) v Ryan Day
Jamie Cope (14) v Andrew Pagett
Mark Allen (11) v Matthew Stevens
Stephen Maguire (6) v Barry Hawkins

Shaun Murphy (7) v Marcus Campbell
Ronnie O’Sullivan (10) v Dom Dale
Ricky Walden (15) v Rory McLeod
John Higgins (2) v Stephen Lee

I literally cannot wait
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Old 12-04-2011, 03:22 PM
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Will post up my tips later this week, don't actually agree with any of those bets. Much better blog is here, great analysis of each first round game, far better advice than the one on Betfair, well I think so anyway.

Particularly good (appears in the comments I think) for odds on bettors is the 1/3 on the final finishing before midnight. It starts an hour earlier and they're playing an extra frame this year before the final session, is as close to a certainty as you can get, I don't touch 1/3 shots though.

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There is also a free to enter prediction competition, I won the one before last and got £50 worth of free bets put in my Betfred account. This being the worlds the first prize is £100, then £50 then £25 I think

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Originally Posted by GodstoneEagle
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thoughts fin?

Also, you should check out Ed Hawkins' blogs on betfair. Cricket betting and trading, the guy is genuinely a genius. His stats for the Ashes and WC were brilliant and he's now doing the IPL. Virtually daily column.

I discovered him amongst other experts through twitter who are really excellent to follow.
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Old 12-04-2011, 03:26 PM
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Sorry this is the 1st round preview the bloke has done, excellent analysis
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His outright pick is Williams, prefer Ding myself though I also got Trump at 50/1 during the Welsh Open final where he won, he was awesome and the match vs Robertson could be a classic, 1st match on at 10am on Saturday
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Old 13-04-2011, 11:55 AM
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Right first bets of the first round are taking on Ronnie, word is that he withdrew last week before making a U turn after the weekend. He is not playing well, his mind is all over the shop and the chances of him putting in a decent peformance are minimal.

He plays Dominic Dale in the first round, solid player who has lost all 7 matches against Ronnie, though a totally different beast to the one he'll face on Monday.

Dale to beat Ronnie, 1pt at 4/1 with B365 (and others)
Dale +4.5 to beat Ronnie, 2pts at 10/11 wiith Corals

First to win 10 frames

It still wouldn't suprise me if Ronnie withdrew, which would void the bets

Last edited by Finbar; 15-04-2011 at 10:44 AM.
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Old 13-04-2011, 12:05 PM
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Centrebet offering market on this! Will be watching your posts closely
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Old 13-04-2011, 01:22 PM
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Hopefully turn a nice profit, normally do ok, I picked Robbo last year.

I think the main thing is that the difference between the best players and the journeymen pros is smaller than ever, when taking on short priced favourites or short priced doubles you need to be very careful and i think there will be a lot of value in backing outsiders (even doing it blindly on every match will probably show a profit)
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Old 13-04-2011, 01:50 PM
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Have picked Dott and Edbon as winners in times past, at great odds. Finbar, good tip for Ding. Can't wait!
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Old 13-04-2011, 01:54 PM
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How's Carter been playing? Always like him for a World's bet
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Old 13-04-2011, 02:00 PM
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I think you could do a lot worse than back Dott this year, loves the venue, loves the longer length frames and was runner up last year.

Is in the other half to Williams and Higgins and has a reasonably decent first round (about all you can ask really!)

Only downside is that last year he ran out of steam in the final, it really wouldn't have taken much to have beating Robertson as they both were very flat in the final.

28/1 and I'm pretty sure I'll be having something on him by the time Saturday comes

Ali Carter has been pretty inconsistent this year, just had his first son, signs in China that he was getting better before he got a right booting from Selby. Should win his 1st round but at that kind of price (25/1) I would sooner be on Dott

You can read his pre WC thoughts here (and it is 100% definitely him)
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Old 13-04-2011, 02:23 PM
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I like Ryan Day over Williams if he's odds-against.

Edit: 2/1 on bet265.. that's not bad imo.
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Old 13-04-2011, 02:31 PM
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9/4 in several places and just the kind of match you'll see Williams shorten significantly in pre match so you might get 5/2 or bigger on the day on Betfair.

Certainly think that's a big price given Day seems to be finding form and consistency, however Williams is arguably playing the best snooker at the moment and definitely the most consistent this season. Might be wise to look at the handicap

In his last first to 5 match Williams hit 4 centuries and a half century when losing 5-4, incredible

Another form player (at a big price) is Steven Lee (the player who beat Williams in that match), he has a horrific 1st round draw against Higgins but I've had a few quid at 120.0 on Betfair as he really is playing well

Probable shot of the season though I do think he may have been trying to move the red, it's still a thing of great beauty (unlike Lee!!)

It's the shot from the blue to his last red

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Old 13-04-2011, 02:39 PM
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Gone for a Lucky 15 on handicap market

1 Judd Trump +2.5 @ 4/5
2 Ryan Day +2.5 @ 10/11
3 Dominic Dale +4.5 @ 4/5
4 Dave Harold +3.5 @ 5/6
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Old 13-04-2011, 02:40 PM
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I don't think I can back such a disgusting creature!
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Old 13-04-2011, 02:43 PM
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Old 13-04-2011, 02:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beckenham Boy
Gone for a Lucky 15 on handicap market

1 Judd Trump +2.5 @ 4/5
2 Ryan Day +2.5 @ 10/11
3 Dominic Dale +4.5 @ 4/5
4 Dave Harold +3.5 @ 5/6
Harold is someone I love to oppose but normally come unstuck, will be opposing him on the handicap again I expect!

Trump is a good bet, was on fire in China, fearless and scored very very heavily, Robbo will need to play well from the off and Trump is very hard to peg back when in front. I might wait and see how he starts and get involved at shorter prices if he does take the lead
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Old 13-04-2011, 02:58 PM
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Some very interesting stuff here, Finbar. I'll be watching the tournament and this thread very closely.
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Old 13-04-2011, 03:01 PM
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Finbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mine
Well I'm off to Australia on the middle Sunday but generally the best bets are normally in the first two rounds anyway, will hopefully still be posting once there though clearly I'll struggle to watch it live
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Old 13-04-2011, 09:23 PM
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daz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of minedaz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of minedaz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of minedaz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of minedaz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of minedaz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of minedaz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of minedaz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of minedaz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of minedaz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of minedaz_eagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mine
Good advice Finbar. Great shot from Lee. I thought he might lose some weight one year... seems like he's just getting bigger!!
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  #19  
Old 13-04-2011, 11:55 PM
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GodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineGodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineGodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineGodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineGodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineGodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineGodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineGodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineGodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineGodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineGodstoneEagle : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mine
This seems like a very lazy preview
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Old 14-04-2011, 05:45 PM
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Finbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mine
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Originally Posted by GodstoneEagle
This seems like a very lazy preview
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Extraordinarily uninsightful
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