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  #21  
Old 14-04-2011, 05:55 PM
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Steven Lee won't be winning the world championship
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  #22  
Old 14-04-2011, 06:06 PM
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He might already be World Champion

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Old 14-04-2011, 06:48 PM
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After his withdrawal and retraction this week I get the feeling Ronnie will either lose in the first round or win the tournament. Probably the former.
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  #24  
Old 15-04-2011, 06:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
Well I'm off to Australia on the middle Sunday but generally the best bets are normally in the first two rounds anyway, will hopefully still be posting once there though clearly I'll struggle to watch it live
You might catch some on one of the Foxtel sports channels though not sure.
Where are you landing?
I'm backing King, Ding, Hendry and Maguire to win their 1st round matches.
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  #25  
Old 15-04-2011, 07:16 AM
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Landing Sydney Tuesday 26th, breakfast with my Aunt then getting a connecting flight to Ballina, got a wedding (Caroline's sister) in Yamba on Saturday, will then be driving to Brisbane on the Monday.

Should have access to Eurosport player (who have all the matches archived, not sure how long after the match but will monitor that next week) which I'll cancel after the Worlds (only 4 a month though) and BBCiplayer via UKVPN (6 a month) which also means I can bet in running from home on all sport.

Just had a look and nothing on Fox, I think I might try and not haver Fox Sports, I'll have access to Sky Sports via my mate's Sky player (again only possible via the IP address changer) so can put it from my laptop directly onto the tv, most Aus sports don't really interest me yet, though I might like to follow NRL (though I hate Rugby League over here) as I have done fantasy NRL for the last few years.

Just need to avoid hearing the snooker results once I arrive, which in a snooker obsessed country like Aus will be tricky I'm sure
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  #26  
Old 15-04-2011, 08:19 AM
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Right my current outright bets in order

Ding 28 at 10/1 - At his best, along with Higgins and Williams perhaps, he's the best player at the moment, he is in the better of the two halves and it's just a matter of whether he can be consistent over the 17 days, if he recreates his Masters form I am confident he'll at least get to the final.

Dott 20 at 33/1 - For the above reasons, seeded to meet Ding in the semis

Trump 10e/w at 50/1 - Again in the top half, tricky opener against Robertson but if he wins then he has a good chance of meeting Dott in the quarters

Lee - 12 at 114/1 (av odds on Betfair) - Been involved in the best two matches this season (one losing 9-8 to Higgins with 96% pot success), can run Higgins close and if he wins those odds will come crashing in, though he does have a very tough draw

Hawkins - 8 at 300/1 (av odds on Betfair but now 320), I just think he's extremely under rated and in the easiest 1/4 (but bottom half)


My staking for the sake of this thread would be

Ding 3pts at 8/1 (current best price)
Dott 2pts at 29/1
Trump 0.5pts e/w at 33/1
Lee 1pt at 110.0 on Betfair (trade if he makes the final, only 80/1 with the fixed odds bookies)
Hawkins 0.5pts 320.0 with Betfair (definitely trade if he gets to the final, odds are only 150/1 with the fixed odds bookies)

Last edited by Finbar; 15-04-2011 at 10:43 AM.
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  #27  
Old 15-04-2011, 08:58 AM
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Fin - why is Robertson number 1 seed (and in the seemingly easier half) but available at 11/1 to win the tournament?

Or is it just due to a difficult opening match against Trump?
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  #28  
Old 15-04-2011, 10:18 AM
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Am surprised he is the price he is, it's purely down to the fact that he's been a bit inconsistent this season, if my picks weren't so dominated by the top half of the draw then I would certianly be backing him, if he beats Trump and is still 7/1 or bigger then I'll probably back him to win it).

I think people are very focussed on Higgins and Williams as they have been the headline players this year (with good reason) so Robertson is somewhat under the radar.

The two players I haven't named but wouldn't put anyone off backing at what I see is a good price is Robertson and Murphy (16/1) who is also getting back to his best but is in Ronnie's and Higgin's quarter so on that basis have left him alone

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  #29  
Old 15-04-2011, 10:25 AM
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Right, tomorrow's games

Robbo vs Trump
Like I said above, once Trump is in front he's hard to peg back so will probably back him in running if he gets ahead early.

The bet I really like is Total 50's. I can see this going to at least 10-6 either way so would have 13 being a rough par score myself, both players are heavy scorers in the balls so the 11/10 available on there being 12 or more (with Skybet) seems like great value to me. Only fear would be Robertson steamrollering Judd but I think after China that is now very unlikely

Am going to assign points to my bets to indicate how confident I am and also keep a tally of how my tips on this thread are going, will edit the ones above

5pt will be the maximum bet

3pts at over 11.5 50's with Skybet at 11/10

Last edited by Finbar; 15-04-2011 at 10:38 AM.
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  #30  
Old 15-04-2011, 10:33 AM
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Am going to leave Cope vs Paggett alone, I actually think Paggett may cover the handicap but he is also quite capable of getting beaten very heavily so will watch the Robbo match and not worry about that one

Day vs Williams should be a cracker, i think Williams will win this one reasonably comfortably but do worry that Day is finding form after a torrid time of it. As with the Robbo match they are both heavy scorers so would expect there to be a few centuries, will dabble on over 1.5

Over 1.5 centuries, 2pts at 4/6 with Paddy Power
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  #31  
Old 15-04-2011, 10:35 AM
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Murphy vs Campbell

Campbell is finding his form and Murphy has been quite in and out this year. The fact is though that Murphy is a strong fav for a reason. I think Campbell will not make it easy for Sean, rather than take him at 11/10 +3.5 frames I think the 6/4 at Bet365 for over 16 frames is more attractive as there is surely no way he'll beat Murphy easily.

Campbell vs Murphy over 16 frames at 6/4 with Bet365
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  #32  
Old 15-04-2011, 10:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar

The bet I really like is Total 50's. I can see this going to at least 10-6 either way so would have 13 being a rough par score myself, both players are heavy scorers in the balls so the 11/10 available on there being 12 or more (with Skybet) seems like great value to me. Only fear would be Robertson steamrollering Judd but I think after China that is now very unlikely

3pts at over 11.5 50's with Skybet
Not sure if I have read this ^ right but looks like you are saying 50/1? Odds are 11/10

If it was 50s I'd be all over it like Stephen Lee in a cake shop
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  #33  
Old 15-04-2011, 10:37 AM
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Going to leave Carter vs Harold alone, really don't rate Harold at all but I've lost far more than I've won when opposing him over the years, yet whenever I side with him I always lose. Will watch and hope Ali wins, lovely guy
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  #34  
Old 15-04-2011, 10:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beckenham Boy
Not sure if I have read this ^ right but looks like you are saying 50/1? Odds are 11/10

If it was 50s I'd be all over it like Stephen Lee in a cake shop
LOL, sorry yes it's 11/10 will edit
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Old 15-04-2011, 10:44 AM
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That's it decided then, I'm getting on Robbo to win.

Ronnie will be ducking out early so I think the bottom half might not be quite as bad as you think.
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Old 15-04-2011, 10:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gjohnk
That's it decided then, I'm getting on Robbo to win.

Ronnie will be ducking out early so I think the bottom half might not be quite as bad as you think.
True but was more thinking you should be avoiding Williams and Higgins, guess anything can happen and suddenly bottom half may look far more appealing

I hope you're right about Ronnie
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Old 15-04-2011, 10:53 AM
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I would wait till after the trump match though and sacrifice a bit of the price (or have a saver on Trump to win the match)
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Old 15-04-2011, 11:09 AM
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Looking at the top of the bottom half, I like the look of Maguire / Williams to reach the final odds

Maguire to reach the final is best odds 14s on skybet and VC
Williams is 9/2 to reach the final on VC and Extrabet

They will face either Ronnie or Higgins in the semi. I think Williams has the beating of both at the moment with Ronnie's mind and Higgins getting done by Murphy so emphatically in China

Both of these seem good odds to me with the 9/2 on Williams stand out in my eyes
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Old 15-04-2011, 11:19 AM
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Tricky one, Higgins has been almost invincible since coming back from his ban, agree on form that they should meet in the semis though. Guess you also can't rule out Ronnie coming out all guns blazing, so hard to know what state his mind is in but you have to imagine it's not good
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Old 16-04-2011, 12:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
3pts at over 11.5 50's with Skybet at 11/10
6 after the first session, could have been a couple more but will take that I think, should be a close match
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