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  #41  
Old 19-07-2011, 02:51 PM
tbooker tbooker is online now
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tbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-final
I find betting on the ryman league is worthwhile.
anyone else try their luck on this market?
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  #42  
Old 19-07-2011, 02:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tbooker
I find betting on the ryman league is worthwhile.
anyone else try their luck on this market?

matches
champions
relegation

??

not really had a go on non league other than when i had a friend who played in the zamaretto and he seemed to get wind of stuff,
i.e opposition were playing a 16 yr old keeper once for one reason or another. things like that. can be some decent opportunities
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  #43  
Old 19-07-2011, 03:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herts_palace
If you can price the goalscorer market better than a bookmaker then you are much more knowledgeable than me. I know you have ignored a lot of players but I thought[perhaps mistakenly] that their margins on this sort of market were so much greater. Especially when you see each new entrant gets a price and the others do not get adjusted.

One more aspect though. If you are going to cover your bets then you could be laying out a lot of money that will be tied up with the bookies until May. In the meantime this money won't be working for you. I presume your returns are good enough to make that viable?

Yes, the bookmaker overround is HUGE on these markets but it's mainly because of the long-shots (players being 66/1 when they should be 1000/1 for example). There's less of an issue at shorter odds where there's likely to be more value.

Quote:
but it thought it had more unpredictability than I thought. So you may be right. Although don't forget Kevin Phillips or even AJ [Yes I know he came 2nd so doesn't really count but he may have been one you would have excluded that year]

Predictability or not is a non-issue. I'm not trying to 'predict' anything, I'm just trying to assign probabilities to each player. So I can't foresee a SKP/AJ but I can say that they have X% of winning next year.

Quote:
One more aspect though. If you are going to cover your bets then you could be laying out a lot of money that will be tied up with the bookies until May. In the meantime this money won't be working for you. I presume your returns are good enough to make that viable?

All my long-term staking is with money which would otherwise just be sitting in a savings account collecting 3%/yr. The other option is of course investing in the stock market or something where I'd expect 7%/yr or so (via indices) - if I feel I have a greater edge than that in these long-terms, adjusted for risk, it's still worthwhile. fwiw, I think for 'average punter', who may not have a large betting bankroll, antepost bets are terrible from a money-winning perspective - simply because, as you say, you tie up money. So your opportunity cost is not only from savings/investments but from potentially profitable bets they can now not make throughout the season (assuming that they find these!)
Last edited by BW_Palace : 19-07-2011 at 03:17 PM.
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  #44  
Old 19-07-2011, 03:20 PM
tbooker tbooker is online now
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tbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-finaltbooker is haring down the right flank like Pemberton in the 1990 semi-final
matches in general - there have been some ridiculous odds displayed from skybet in the past but believe they are tightening this up and may not even take bets on this this season.

if you can find a bookie - Lowestoft must be favs along with Lewes also believe Carshalton have a massive budget this season but they have some off the field probs.
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  #45  
Old 19-07-2011, 03:30 PM
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see there is no mention of fleetwood in the conference. Looking to do them in doubles upwards with man u leicester and crawley.
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  #46  
Old 19-07-2011, 03:36 PM
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Crawley are going up again. Free money for anyone who takes a punt.
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They're a bigger and better club than us, as much as I hate to say it. We might have 20,000 plastic supporters to fill our stadium at the moment, but when their enthusiasm fizzles out we will have nothing over Palace. I actually hope they go up now just so we don't have to go through two more humiliations next season.
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  #47  
Old 19-07-2011, 03:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CrawleyEagle
Crawley are going up again. Free money for anyone who takes a punt.

really?
with Steve Evans in charge? A few bungs uncovered and a points deduction will see them drop!

I fully expect them to do the business but its an awfully short price.

Notts County are the only favourites in the last 11 seaosns to win the league. though 6 of the last 11 favourites have been promoted, all automatically
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  #48  
Old 19-07-2011, 05:05 PM
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My buddy and I like making crazy bets on promotion and relegation based solely on the first letter of the team name. Last season, I had 3 "W" teams to go down and he had 3 "B" teams to go down. In the second half of the last weekend, I looked in good shape, but got done in by that Wolves goal and had to pay his bar tab cause 2 "B"s hit. This season I still have 3 "W" teams going down from the PL and have 3 "B" teams coming up from LC.

Premier League Relegated:
Scott (Stoke @ 11.0, Sunderland @ 13.0, Swansea @ 1.57) - Best treble @ 224.51
CDWH (West Brom @ 5.0, Wigan @ 3.0, Wolves @ 3.75) - Best treble is a short 52.5

LC Relegated:
Scott (Brighton @ 15.0, Bristol City @ 21.0, Barnsley @ 7.0) - Best treble @ 1764.0

LC Promoted:
CDWH (Burnley @ 7.0, Birmingham @ 5.0, Blackpool @ 7.5) - Best treble @ 220.5
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  #49  
Old 19-07-2011, 11:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BW_Palace
Predictability or not is a non-issue. I'm not trying to 'predict' anything, I'm just trying to assign probabilities to each player. So I can't foresee a SKP/AJ but I can say that they have X% of winning next year.

Ok so you're not trying to predict but you also said you would ignore 75% of the field. From that I would suggest you're ignoring any GS who is likely to be 100/1 true odds or greater - perhaps even 66/1. Wouldn't these have been AJ's odds?- even from you?
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  #50  
Old 20-07-2011, 08:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herts_palace
Just seen what I think is a very good bet. Coral offer Group bets over the season and have priced up the bottom ranked teams in Group D as follows. All we need to do is to finish ahead of this lot.


Peterborough 7/2
Barnsley 4/1
Coventry 4/1
Crystal Palace 9/2
Watford 9/2
Doncaster 5/1

Don't you think we are good at 9/2 and why are P'Boro favourites?

My prices

Palace 3/1, Doncaster 4/1, Barnsley 9/2, Watford 9/2, Peterborough 5/1 and Coventry 7/1. Just noticed my margins are smaller but you get the drift.
One thing I have noticed is the prices for this group of winning the Championshion on betfair and betdaq. From this group, we are priced at 120; the closest then is Peterborough/Coventry best price 180. On that basis, you would expect us to be the favourites
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  #51  
Old 20-07-2011, 12:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cantspell
One thing I have noticed is the prices for this group of winning the Championshion on betfair and betdaq. From this group, we are priced at 120; the closest then is Peterborough/Coventry best price 180. On that basis, you would expect us to be the favourites


You make a good point even though they are not the same they are clearly linked. What I would say is that it doesn't take much money to alter those odds on there so don't read too much into it, especially as I've set some of the odds!
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  #52  
Old 20-07-2011, 01:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herts_palace
Ok so you're not trying to predict but you also said you would ignore 75% of the field. From that I would suggest you're ignoring any GS who is likely to be 100/1 true odds or greater - perhaps even 66/1. Wouldn't these have been AJ's odds?- even from you?

I imagine AJ's true price back then would have been about 150/1. I am pricing up basically any striker and some midfielders (at the big clubs) up to about 1000/1. My book adds up to 100% and adding players like Damien Duff etc makes negligible difference.
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  #53  
Old 20-07-2011, 01:56 PM
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You're laying at 1000.0? Blimey impressive bank! And that's not being cynical or not believing you are by the way, just impressed!

The 1000.0 layers must make a fortune, every event almost every runner is matched at 1000.0 and you only hear of one winning once or twice a year, well I do anyway
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  #54  
Old 20-07-2011, 01:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BW_Palace
I imagine AJ's true price back then would have been about 150/1. I am pricing up basically any striker and some midfielders (at the big clubs) up to about 1000/1. My book adds up to 100% and adding players like Damien Duff etc makes negligible difference.

Sorry I don't mean to be thick but you are pricing all strikers and high scoring midfielders and then looking for value against your book. Are the 75% you exclude a result of the poor value [i.e you have found 25% that are value which seems astonishingly high] or are they excluded before that? If the latter then you would have excluded AJ back in 2004-2005.
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  #55  
Old 20-07-2011, 04:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herts_palace
Sorry I don't mean to be thick but you are pricing all strikers and high scoring midfielders and then looking for value against your book. Are the 75% you exclude a result of the poor value [i.e you have found 25% that are value which seems astonishingly high] or are they excluded before that? If the latter then you would have excluded AJ back in 2004-2005.

75% are excluded because their chances of winning are negligible so me pricing them or not is immaterial - if I know the price of Shaun Derry winning is 9999999999999999999999999/1 then I don't need to price him up properly and include him in the book. AJ would have been included (e.g. I've included Grant Holt, Scott Sinclair, Adel Taarabt this year).
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  #56  
Old 20-07-2011, 05:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BW_Palace
75% are excluded because their chances of winning are negligible so me pricing them or not is immaterial - if I know the price of Shaun Derry winning is 9999999999999999999999999/1 then I don't need to price him up properly and include him in the book. AJ would have been included (e.g. I've included Grant Holt, Scott Sinclair, Adel Taarabt this year).

Ok - originally I thought you meant 75% of those that were priced up by bookmakers.
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  #57  
Old 24-07-2011, 11:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herts_palace
Just seen what I think is a very good bet. Coral offer Group bets over the season and have priced up the bottom ranked teams in Group D as follows. All we need to do is to finish ahead of this lot.


Peterborough 7/2
Barnsley 4/1
Coventry 4/1
Crystal Palace 9/2
Watford 9/2
Doncaster 5/1

Don't you think we are good at 9/2 and why are P'Boro favourites?

My prices

Palace 3/1, Doncaster 4/1, Barnsley 9/2, Watford 9/2, Peterborough 5/1 and Coventry 7/1. Just noticed my margins are smaller but you get the drift.

Had a look at this, Palace does look good...make it 7/2ish.
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  #58  
Old 24-07-2011, 11:55 PM
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But it's not a big price for tieing your money down for so long (tying?)
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  #59  
Old 25-07-2011, 02:53 AM
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It's ~22% EV. Not about to get that in a savings account!
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  #60  
Old 25-07-2011, 04:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BW_Palace
It's ~22% EV. Not about to get that in a savings account!
Not about to get that when Watford score 3 on the last day to win the group by goal difference. At least, that's what would happen if I backed Palace
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