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  #61  
Old 04-04-2013, 03:58 AM
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Even with its juche policy the dprk wouldn't attack without the support of china.
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  #62  
Old 04-04-2013, 05:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kiteagle
Well spotted, Sir. Why we still pay any heed to this sort of clap-trap is beyond me.

Let's examine the actual facts:

1. whatever the size of and efficacy of the arsenal of the DPRK (or, as people are calling it on this thread, "NK") might be, and however operational and whatever its range - to Japan (?), to Guam (?), to Hawaii (?), the combined arsenals of the ROK (which you may know better as South Korea), Japan and their ally, the USA, are incomprehensibly larger and higher quality, thus guaranteeing - if ever employed against the DPRK - its immediate, complete and utter devastation with the loss of all human life, all habitable land on the Korean peninsula, and massive atmospheric spread into the PRC (People's Republic of China).

2. Therefore the only reason why any DPRK leaders would actually cause a direct military attack on the scale of a nuclear missile strike against ROK, Japan or the USA, would be to bring upon themselves a form of corporate self-destruction, and moral and physical suicide, not seen since the Berlin Bunker 'Untergang' of the Third Reich in 1945.

So the DPRK's increasingly shrill bluster does seem reminiscent of the downfall of the Third Reich and Hitler's last days and weeks of his life, as depicted in the famous German movie.

Perhaps it has become no longer sustainable for the DPRK to rule itself and its people with its iron fist, Juche, and ultimate fascistic self-destruction.

It already depends wholly for its survival on handouts from the PRC and the USA (via DPRK-approved aid programmes), whilst affording its leadership gilt-edged luxury through international crime - currency forgery, nuclear sales, military sales, and other sanctions-busting smuggling, including synthetic narcotics.

Its fragile economic existence probably only requires a very slight tightening of the strings from the PRC, and some counter-subversions from the ROK and the US, and Kim Jong-Il would be on the train to, and begging Beijing for asylum within minutes.

What would be a massive shame would be the wholesale destruction of 100 million people and an entire chunk of the world, through the vanity and pig-headedness of a handful of disgusting tyrants in the DPRK, but human life is like that, and I would not bet on it.

I hope that Beijing calculates that the disastrous overspill, the iniquitous shame it would have to suffer internationally from such a catastrophe within one of its client States, and the image projected to the world of it as a feeble power unable even to influence a few madmen in a neighbouring tin-pot dictatorship, would bring it out of its professed neutrality towards the DPRK, and rein in this nonsense fairly soon, however subtly.

There is a very slight theory running that Kim Jong-Il is trying to call the bluff of the US and/or the ROK, and make one or both of them pre-emptively strike at the DPRK, and then - so the theory goes - the PR of China will feel impelled to react with a counter-strike against the USA, with some of its own nukes, thus dragging the PRC into an exchange of mutually-assured destruction with the USA - all to protect Kim Jong-Il.

I suspect Mr Il is rather over-playing the importance amongst 2 billion Chinese of his own paltry tally of some 40 million starving compatriots. And anyway, in an all-out exchange between the USA and China, at the moment, China would lose.
I'd suggest another option, Kim the even younger may well be fearful of a coup via hardline elements of his own army thus feels the need to rattle the sabre much harder than his father.

Hitler was facing a certain invasion of enemies he knew would certainly convict and excute him. North Korea without a military confrontation is probabley facing a slow move towards democracey with alot of the old guard able to hang onto power for many years and then retire into a life of privillage.
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  #63  
Old 04-04-2013, 06:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ExiledStirling
I basically read that as in attempting to hit the US the nuclear weapon will end up somewhere in Australia.
Had better go on EBay and see if anyone has got an old fall out shelter at a good price
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  #64  
Old 04-04-2013, 06:53 AM
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I'm more worried by the fact that there are two North Korea threads.
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  #65  
Old 04-04-2013, 07:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chav_hater
Complete non-issue. The US has more threat from all the nukes which were lost in the break-up of the Soviet Union than those coming from North Korea. All posturing for internal political gain, much the same as Argentina and the Falklands.
Nothing like a bit of political posturing to cheer me up on the way to work, I say bravo to that man.
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  #66  
Old 04-04-2013, 07:21 AM
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It's all fairly academic right now as while they have a missile that could theoretically reach Hawaii, or the tip of Alaksa, they've no navigation or re-entry system for their missiles.

So they could launch one into space, but have no way of bringing it back down. Or they could launch an in-atmosphere missile (that wouldn't have the range), but would essentially just be pointing it in a general direction and letting it go.

They've got a reasonable chance of hitting China, and certainly their neighbours, both of which would be insane.

It's more sabre rattling, designed for internal political gain.
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  #67  
Old 04-04-2013, 07:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HurstpierPalace
Even with its juche policy the dprk wouldn't attack without the support of china.
But my friend you forget one thing, as T'Pau once sang, he does indeed have " China in my hand".
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  #68  
Old 04-04-2013, 07:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceBhoy
Their nukes are about as worrying for US defence as Calvin Andrew.
I'm not sure that I should be laughing about a subject so serious !
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  #69  
Old 04-04-2013, 07:51 AM
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Well I'm glad the BBS political and warfare experts are not worried
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  #70  
Old 04-04-2013, 07:55 AM
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North Korea have 6 nukes, each equivalent to the one dropped on Nagasaki. The commonly held view is that they probably don't have the technical systems required to deliver them effectively. Seoul is about the only place in any real danger of a direct hit, although of course any nuclear strike will have MASSIVE implications on that region.
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  #71  
Old 04-04-2013, 08:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Random*
It's all fairly academic right now as while they have a missile that could theoretically reach Hawaii, or the tip of Alaksa, they've no navigation or re-entry system for their missiles.

So they could launch one into space, but have no way of bringing it back down. Or they could launch an in-atmosphere missile (that wouldn't have the range), but would essentially just be pointing it in a general direction and letting it go.

They've got a reasonable chance of hitting China, and certainly their neighbours, both of which would be insane.

It's more sabre rattling, designed for internal political gain.
Not sure if I'm reassured or more worried after reading that!
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  #72  
Old 04-04-2013, 08:17 AM
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Isn't the US defence budget being or about to be slashed?
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  #73  
Old 04-04-2013, 08:35 AM
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You can say what you like about the North Koreans but no one can say they ain't got rhythmn
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  #74  
Old 04-04-2013, 08:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ExiledStirling
China will not join them
China see them as that Cousin who turns up at your stag do, and then gets hammered and p*ssses off all of your mates
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Old 04-04-2013, 08:47 AM
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We need a Korean Spring. Someone give the people access to Twitter.
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  #76  
Old 04-04-2013, 08:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CommercialStone
China see them as that Cousin who turns up at your stag do, and then gets hammered and p*ssses off all of your mates
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Old 04-04-2013, 09:01 AM
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I Love the Cluseau style voice over on this video

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Old 04-04-2013, 09:06 AM
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So unless I am mistaken only two Atomic Bombs have ever been dropped/sent/fired etc and that was 60+ years ago.

Thats not a lot to go on in terms of damage to the worlds polution/enviroment. I would imagine that any nuclear bombs from 2013 would be far more devasting and possible affects afterwards could be extreme not only for Korea/North and South but China and the rest of the world. If you think of the issues caused but Chernobyll on Russia and the rest of Europe then you can envisage what several bombs might do. Scary stuff for all of us.
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Old 04-04-2013, 09:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weltklasse
I Love the Cluseau style voice over on this video

This isn't going to cut musch ice against America's APKWS Laser guided missiles though is it?
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Old 04-04-2013, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pub Idol
So unless I am mistaken only two Atomic Bombs have ever been dropped/sent/fired etc and that was 60+ years ago.

Thats not a lot to go on in terms of damage to the worlds polution/enviroment. I would imagine that any nuclear bombs from 2013 would be far more devasting and possible affects afterwards could be extreme not only for Korea/North and South but China and the rest of the world. If you think of the issues caused but Chernobyll on Russia and the rest of Europe then you can envisage what several bombs might do. Scary stuff for all of us.
Only two have been used in anger.. lots have been detonated in tests, usually underground or under the sea.

Yeah, today’s nukes are many many times more powerful but there lots of different types. Modern nukes that are similar to the ones in ww2 are now called tactical nukes, because they are so small!!! Ie... they only completely devastate a few miles of a city in the initial blast and so can be used ‘tactically’ to pick a target area. The big boys wipe out whole cities... not little cities... big ones and most of the area around. Just a few would wipe out Britain no problem. Scary stuff indeed
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