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  #81  
Old 19-12-2016, 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted by anti-addick View Post
They have been losing a few of late but they will want to change that v us at home.
I was thinking that a change in form means I would probably have put this down as a draw if doing the list now.

I still can't work out how we are not in the bottom three - and our really good goal difference means that we are effectively a point better off as well.
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  #82  
Old 19-12-2016, 12:44 PM
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How many times would X number of points that would have been enough to stay up in the past 21 years (not actual points won by team in 17th and excluding goal difference)

43 - 21/21
42 - 20/21
41 - 19/21
40 - 18/21
39 - 17/21
38 - 15/21
37 - 14/21
36 - 9/21
35 - 8/21
34 - 5/21
33 - 0/21

So, the lesson from history is that 43 points guarantees survival while anything less than 34 points guarantees relegation. The sweet point in chances of staying up occurs at 37 points (a 66.6% chance of survival compared with 43% chance of survival with 36 points).

We are currently on course for 34 points.

It's gong to be tight!
  #83  
Old 19-12-2016, 12:54 PM
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You only have to look at Hull and Swansea's fixtures to see that they are already pretty much down. I reckon Sunderland will finish with around 35 points and Palace 37-40.
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  #84  
Old 19-12-2016, 01:04 PM
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sw16girl - thanks so much for this thread - I can't remember who produced it for the last couple of years but those threads really helped me focus on what we needed to do, when to properly panic & when to sit back with a massive cigar.
  #85  
Old 19-12-2016, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Olympian2 View Post
sw16girl - thanks so much for this thread - I can't remember who produced it for the last couple of years but those threads really helped me focus on what we needed to do, when to properly panic & when to sit back with a massive cigar.
It was Ian Hart who was diagnosed with cancer a few months ago. He is still posting the odd message although at the time he said he might not produce a relegation countdown thread this year.
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  #86  
Old 19-12-2016, 01:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave_who_ru View Post
It was Ian Hart who was diagnosed with cancer a few months ago. He is still posting the odd message although at the time he said he might not produce a relegation countdown thread this year.
puts all this into perspective.
Get well soon Ian
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  #87  
Old 19-12-2016, 01:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave_who_ru View Post
It was Ian Hart who was diagnosed with cancer a few months ago. He is still posting the odd message although at the time he said he might not produce a relegation countdown thread this year.
I posted the first one some a few seasons ago and then the following year Ian took up the reins. As he had not done one well after his usual start date I suspected he may well not have been feeling up to it.
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Last edited by sw16girl; 19-12-2016 at 02:14 PM.
  #88  
Old 19-12-2016, 01:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave_who_ru View Post
It was Ian Hart who was diagnosed with cancer a few months ago. He is still posting the odd message although at the time he said he might not produce a relegation countdown thread this year.
I hadn't realised - get well Ian
  #89  
Old 19-12-2016, 02:10 PM
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I hadn't realised - get well Ian
Absolutely, get well Ian. All the very best to you.
  #90  
Old 19-12-2016, 02:13 PM
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I missed this too.
Best wishes Ian - the real countdown guru
  #91  
Old 19-12-2016, 02:14 PM
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I hadn't realised - get well Ian
Me too, all the best Ian if you follow this thread.
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  #92  
Old 19-12-2016, 02:20 PM
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This is such a worthwhile thread and one many of us hoped we could look back on whimsically. Last season, Ian's thread was not so sought after but no less appreciated.

Thank you 'sw16' for taking the baton from Ian.
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  #93  
Old 19-12-2016, 02:32 PM
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Get well soon Ian. Top poster and I've no doubt a top chap to boot.
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  #94  
Old 19-12-2016, 03:43 PM
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Real shame to hear IanH is ill, a good contributor to this forum. Get well soon mate
  #95  
Old 19-12-2016, 04:00 PM
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Ian, all the best, Sir.
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Old 19-12-2016, 04:36 PM
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Best wishes to Ian.

I think 37 points will not be enough this season. It feels like most of the teams can gather a few wins.

And don't forget we lost to Swansea and very nearly lost to Hull.
  #97  
Old 19-12-2016, 04:39 PM
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All the best to Ian.
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Old 19-12-2016, 04:47 PM
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All the best to Ian
I think we are on course right now for 34 points
I was hoping we would have at least one premier league season where there was no threat of relegation it should have been this year even though we all know it will come sooner or later
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Old 19-12-2016, 04:50 PM
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I think a new manager would gain us an extra few points over pardew over the course of the rest of the season that would make a massive difference to the final table
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Old 19-12-2016, 08:34 PM
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The Super computer predictor is predicting that Palace will finish 13th on 45 points and that 33 points will be enough to stay up.

This prediction was made in December

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