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  #1  
Old 05-11-2017, 10:34 PM
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Relegation Avoidance Calculator 17/18

Earlier and better than ever. I just have a feeling that this thread is going to be ever present all the time we are in the Prem. As usual I am not making predictions just showing the type of position we should be in during the season if we are to avoid relegation. I have taken 39 points again as the safe total - it may be less and I was considering reducing it but this season clubs do seem to be doing a little better than last so I'm keeping it the same. So that means 35 points from 27 games - easy?

As has been said elsewhere these next games do look fairly vital to do well in as we have a tough run after that.

Team______________Projected_______Actual____Target +/-____Overall
Everton (h)........................D.................D.... ...........0...................0
Stoke (h)...........................W................W.. .............0...................0
Brighton(a)........................L.............. ..D..............+1.................+1
West Brom (a)....................D................D......... ......0.................+1
Bournemouth(h).................W................D. .............-2..................-1
Watford(h).........................W.............. .W................0..................-1
Leicester(a)........................L............. ...W.............+3.................+2
Swansea (a).......................W................D...... ........-2...................0
Arsenal(h)..........................L............. ...L................0...................0
Man City(h).........................L................D .............+1.................+1
Southampton(a)..................L................W .............+3.................+4
Burnley(h)..........................W............. .W................0.................+4
Arsenal(a)...........................L............ ...L................0..................+4
West Ham(a).......................D...............D.... ...........0..................+4
Newcastle(h).......................W.............. D...............-2..................+2
Everton(a)..........................L............. ...L................0..................+2
Spurs(h).............................D............ ...L...............-1..................+1
Reset so now overall level to target again
Man U(h)............................L................L ...............0..................+1
Chelsea(a)..........................L............. ..L................0..................+1
Huddersfield(a)...................D............... W.............+2..................+3
Liverpool(h)........................D............. ..L...............-1..................+2
Bournemouth(a)..................D...............D. ..............0..................+2
Brighton(h).........................W............. .W...............0..................+2
Watford(a)..........................L............. ..D..............+1.................+3
Leicester(h)........................W............. .W................0.................+3
Stoke(a).............................L............ ..W..............+3.................+6
West Brom(h).....................W

By the Way does anyone know why we play Swansea twice before we play Arsenal once? I do not recall that happening before but maybe it does sometimes - means that our first 19 games are easier on paper than our second 19 as the team we play twice in the first 19 is Swansea.
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Last edited by sw16girl; 21-04-2018 at 09:42 PM.
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:04 PM
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Nice one

Just a little bump to get it above the old thread

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Old 06-11-2017, 12:11 PM
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This isn't anywhere near as daunting as I had expected it to look.

Quietly confident.
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:14 PM
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Cheers for that, given our recent performances that looks very doable.
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:18 PM
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There is an implicit assumption in the OP that we will score a minimum of 10 more goals between now and the end of the season.
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Stockport_Eagle View Post
There is an implicit assumption in the OP that we will score a minimum of 10 more goals between now and the end of the season.
That is entirely possible with our current joint-leading top scorer,. . . o.g.

Everton (h)........................D
Stoke (h)...........................L
Brighton(a)........................L
West Brom (a)...................L
Bournemouth(h).................W
Watford(h).........................W
Leicester(a)........................L
Swansea (a).......................L
Arsenal(h)..........................L
Man City(h).........................L
Southampton(a)..................L
Burnley(h)..........................L
Arsenal(a)...........................L
West Ham(a).......................D
Newcastle(h).......................W
Everton(a)..........................L
Spurs(h).............................L
Man U(h)............................L
Chelsea(a)..........................L
Huddersfield(a)...................L
Liverpool(h)........................L
Bournemouth(a)..................W
Brighton(h).........................W
Watford(a)..........................L
Leicester(h)........................W
Stoke(a).............................L
West Brom(h).....................W


or maybe not

Last edited by foresthillbilly; 06-11-2017 at 12:28 PM.
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:28 PM
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Next 4-6 games look very winneable, Benteke back, starting to play well, defence tighter. Surely our luck has to change. Things will be so much clearer in early December.
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:29 PM
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Disappointed that we're so low on confidence we are projecting a loss at the Amex. Probably right though.
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:29 PM
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I just did a quick calculaish and have us finishing on 35pts...
Not enough!
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:29 PM
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That is entirely possible with our current joint-leading top scorer,. . . o.g.
you do realise Zaha is out top scorer with 2
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:32 PM
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Iíll have a go...


Everton (h)........................W
Stoke (h)...........................W
Brighton(a)........................W
West Brom (a)...................L
Bournemouth(h).................W
Watford(h).........................D
Leicester(a)........................L
Swansea (a).......................W
Arsenal(h)..........................L
Man City(h).........................L
Southampton(a)..................D
Burnley(h)..........................W
Arsenal(a)...........................L
West Ham(a).......................D
Newcastle(h).......................W
Everton(a)..........................L
Spurs(h).............................L
Man U(h)............................L
Chelsea(a)..........................L
Huddersfield(a)...................W
Liverpool(h)........................L
Bournemouth(a)..................W
Brighton(h).........................W
Watford(a)..........................D
Leicester(h)........................W
Stoke(a).............................D
West Brom(h).....................W


Think that would see us safe and isnít unrealistic
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:33 PM
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you do realise Zaha is out top scorer with 2
yeah zaha is an og
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:36 PM
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I was deliberately pessimistic with a few of our upcoming matches because I think people are investing far too much in them - too many people saying Everton is a must win game, that we cannot allow ourselves to lose to Brighton etc. The above shows that isn't true and there is more than enough time to get out of the mess we are in

TFM - I am not sure you have understood the principle - you have got us getting lots of points more than we need - we may well do but this is not a prediction thread simply an indication of what we might need to do to get to the magic 39 points. We can ignore what others do (no need to hope that Man U or Brighton win eg) as long as we get enough points on the board we will be safe.
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:38 PM
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I was deliberately pessimistic with a few of our upcoming matches because I think people are investing far too much in them - too many people saying Everton is a must win game, that we cannot allow ourselves to lose to Brighton etc. The above shows that isn't true and there is more than enough time to get out of the mess we are in

TFM - I am not sure you have understood the principle - you have got us getting lots of points more than we need - we may well do but this is not a prediction thread simply an indication of what we might need to do to get to the magic 39 points. We can ignore what others do (no need to hope that Man U or Brighton win eg) as long as we get enough points on the board we will be safe.
I know I get that. More a post to show we are still in it.
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Old 06-11-2017, 12:52 PM
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I know I get that. More a post to show we are still in it.
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Old 06-11-2017, 01:01 PM
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Does anyone have website links to updated Gx charts people sometimes mention?

I know we took 1 point from Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs but our performances perhaps warranted more
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Old 06-11-2017, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Seanee Pawnee View Post
I just did a quick calculaish and have us finishing on 35pts...
Not enough!
would have been 3 out of the last 5 years
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Old 06-11-2017, 01:12 PM
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Does anyone have website links to updated Gx charts people sometimes mention?

I know we took 1 point from Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs but our performances perhaps warranted more
Here's one of many examples. This lot have us in 10th based on xG.

We "won" again on the weekend - as we have for the last 3.
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Old 06-11-2017, 10:59 PM
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Good to see this thread back another year, keeps a more realistic view of our chances of staying up
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Old 06-11-2017, 11:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thefunkymonk View Post
I’ll have a go...


Everton (h)........................W
Stoke (h)...........................W
Brighton(a)........................W
West Brom (a)...................L
Bournemouth(h).................W
Watford(h).........................D
Leicester(a)........................L
Swansea (a).......................W
Arsenal(h)..........................L
Man City(h).........................L
Southampton(a)..................D
Burnley(h)..........................W
Arsenal(a)...........................L
West Ham(a).......................D
Newcastle(h).......................W
Everton(a)..........................L
Spurs(h).............................L
Man U(h)............................L
Chelsea(a)..........................L
Huddersfield(a)...................W
Liverpool(h)........................L
Bournemouth(a)..................W
Brighton(h).........................W
Watford(a)..........................D
Leicester(h)........................W
Stoke(a).............................D
West Brom(h).....................W


Think that would see us safe and isn’t unrealistic
We have never won more than 13 games in a season since we've been up. Asking a lot to match that record after such a stinking start. Hope we can string a run together that gets us back in abunch. Being cut adrift feels awful.
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