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Beckenham Boy 21-03-2011 10:05 AM

GOLF betting
 
For fear of being the only one posting on this thread, I thought I would open a new thread to focus solely on golf betting.

It seems a few people bet regularly on the US and European tour events and a lot more get involved for the big events.

Hope OK with everyone

Beckenham Boy 21-03-2011 10:28 AM

The Masters are quickly approaching us, kicking off on Thursday 7th April, so started looking a bit more seriously at the markets

US threats

Watney was 50/1 just 3 weeks ago but due to his incredible form so far this year including a win 2 weeks ago he has dropped down to 18s. Watney finished 7th last year at The Masters although that was 8 shots off the leader. Just wish I got on him a few weeks back...

Tiger is erratic at the moment - he can still play the low rounds but seems impossible for him to put 4 together (even 2 together) in a row at the moment so best odds at 15/2 (Fav) seem way too low at moment - maybe worth watching in play for him

Phil - got to be there or there abouts on the Sunday - form has not been good this season so far but you think of The Masters you think of Phil - best odds of 9/1 are very attractive

Dustin Johnson - cannot see he has the game for Augusta but he has the ability to prove me wrong. 28/1 currently.

European threats

The 29/1 you can get on both Luke Donald and Graeme McDowell look intersting right now as well. You can also pick up 30/1 on Casey and 40/1 on Poulter

The only one I really fancy to do well at Augusta out of those 4 is Donald although he missed the cut last year he is playing better this season though.

Lee Westwood - finished 2nd to Phil last year after leading going into the final round. Likes the course and has the ability to win but his current form is not great and I don't think he will make it into the mix at the end.

Martin Kaymer - missed the cut last year but looks a different player now. I think he will be in the mix towards the end

Rory McIlroy - Did not enjoy his time at Augusta last year missing the cut with +7 after 2 rounds - as short as 20/1 and as long as 25/1 can be taken but I cannot see any reason to do so.

Other players to consider


A few other players I think could be in the mix come Sunday:-

Anthony Kim - although he has had wrist surgery this season I think he could be in the frame. Likes the course and has the game that suits it, finishing 3rd last year. He is a 50/1 shot at the mo which is packed with value imo

Couples - Clearly still has the ability to mix it up with the world's top players and you would not be surprised to hear his name at the top of the board at the Masters. Winning is probably a step too far, currently 100/1, but a great e/w shout

Ricky Barnes - currently 199/1 on Unibet. He finished T10 last year with 4 steady strong rounds including a 68 on day 1 when most were shooting mid 70s. He has just finished 6th and T28 in the last 2 PGA events. Great odds for someone playing well with a good Augusta record.

On reflection, I see th American's dominating the leaderboard on Sunday with maybe 1 or 2 Europeans prominant.

My likely bets:

Phil, Watney, Barnes & Couples all e/w, maybe small on Donald too

Finbar 21-03-2011 10:32 AM

Whenever there is a major am sure there will be plenty of interest in this thread

Hoping for a period of European domination in the majors now

Ricky Barnes is actually a good shout, HATE his cap though :veryangry

Finbar 21-03-2011 10:32 AM

I wouldn't touch Kim at 200/1 though

richj363 21-03-2011 01:29 PM

I think Westwood will be the one to be on,

Good record at Augusta and will win a major this year !

Swanny32 21-03-2011 08:45 PM

I'm not Westwood's biggest fan if I'm honest and with the way he is playing right now I can't see him winning the Masters or winning a Major this year full stop, obviously he has the skill to do it but I think he's going to be one of those "almost made it" players, think Monty.

Martin Kaymer has so far been in the mix most tournaments this season, he's got to be in with a shout of the green jacket, playing some superb golf, completely different player to last year, oozing confidence and never seems to get pissed off with anything which can have a huge affect on your game. 17.0 on various sites and definitely worth a quid or two.

One of my personal favourites is Luke Donald, so chuffed that he won the Accenture match play (made better that I had some money on him), dubbed as a "plucky loser" and someone that just plods along collecting the pay checks and happy not winning, all that has changed and the guy seems to be on a mission at the moment. 30.0 on UniBet.......Yes please!

Agree with BB on Nick Watney, he has been playing some superb golf recently and if I'm honest I'd expect him to be at slightly shorter odds than 20.0 on BetFair. Place price is 4.5 on UniBet as well which seems pretty good to me, you won't get a huge return but it's a sensible bet at the moment.

One bet I'm really liking is Matt Kuchar each way, like Watney, he has been on fire over the last couple of months, current price on BetFair to be the outright winner is 46.0, to place is 9.0 at UniBet. He doesn't have a great record in the major tournaments, his highest placed finish in the Masters is 21st back in 98 but if you are looking at the form of players then he has to be listed as a contender.

The prices for a top 20 finish aren't up yet so I can't quote any prices but with his return to form and his apparent love for the game once more you have to like Sergio Garcia for a top 20 finish, possibly even a top 10 if the price is worth it, although if you ask me given his poor form only last season, top 10 might be asking too much, I can however definitely see him finishing top 20.

Each tournament that comes along at the moment, as soon as I see Tiger Woods listed in the field I'm really tempted to bet on him missing the cut. Ok, so he's slowly finding his feet again, hits a few spectacular shots here and there but at the end of the day he's a broken man and in my opinion will never get back to where he was a decade ago. He's got the ability to blow the rest of the field out of the water but Augusta National is one of the toughest, if not THE toughest golf course on the face of the planet, especially over The Masters weekend, he can just about get away with playing below par at regular courses throughout the season but if you play badly at Augusta you are punished, and punished heavily. I'm by no means saying he is going to miss the cut and this is absolutely no where near a safe bet, but I'm just saying that it's possible and the odds available might well be worth a quid.

Swanny32 21-03-2011 08:50 PM

Oh and great shout on creating the thread BB, if there is one sport I love having a punt on it's the Golf.

Beckenham Boy 22-03-2011 09:32 AM

This weeks golf bets:

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Bay Hill Golf Course = birdies!

Pick 1 - DUSTIN JOHNSON

Dustin hit only 4 bogies at Doral which was 1st in the field. He is currently 1st in Birdie averages on the Tour, he is 21st in putting and 13th in GIR

Taken 18/1 e/w on B365

Pick 2 - JUSTIN ROSE

Last year JR failed at Travellers leading after round 3 - he learnt his lesson and went on to win the AT&T the week after. Rose led last weeks Transitions after round 3 and posted an over par final round to drop down the leaderboard. He will have learnt again and sits 6th in GIR on Tour.

On him at 34/1 e/w at Unibet

Pick 3 - ZACH JOHNSON

In the 2 Florida events so far this year he has finished in the Top 25 both times hitting only 7 bogies over all 4 rounds at Copperhead. His record at Bay Hill is good with 3 Top 10's in 7 appearances including 3rd in 2009. Currently 5th on Tour in putting

On him at 50/1 e/w at Coral

Beckenham Boy 22-03-2011 09:37 AM

ANDALUCIA OPEN

If F Molinari was playing I would have been all over him like a rash. Instead there are 2 clear favourites in the Spaniards of Alvaro and Miguel and I cannot split them

Pick 1 - ALVARO QUIROS

Not the best record at this particular course but has played well this season including a win and a few top end finishes. Expect him to feature right till the end.

On him at 13/1 e/w with Skybet

Pick 2 - MAJ

Jiminez is solid, he will love this event and he will def also be there at the end

On him at 14/1 e/w with B365

Pick 3 - SOREN KJELDSEN

Loves this course - won it in 2009 and was 3rd in 2010.

On him at 40/1 e/w at B365

Pick 4 - ANTHONY WALL

Lost on a Monday finish to Jacquelin in Sicily this week - I almost picked him last week. Playing solid and looking the part at the minute and dont think a victory is far away

On him at 50/1 e/w at PP

cantspell 22-03-2011 07:40 PM

Quick Question for the Golf bet guys

Do you find this type of betting profitable?

Beckenham Boy 23-03-2011 09:58 AM

Depends if the Tours go through a silly spell where the unknowns start picking up trophy's which happens at times. Last week's Transitions PGA event finished with 4 out of the top 5 I had never ever heard of before - let alone ever consider betting on! However in the European Tour Jacquelin just beat Wall on the final day, both of which I considered and left out at the last minute. I did not win on either at the end of the day.

Put it this way, you will not pick up cash every week but when you pick up winners the odds are usually good so your pick ups are nice.

I have had 30/1 pick ups on Tiger before where he was clearly going to win - I saw it as free money but then I have gone months where I have no pick ups at all.

I do it because I enjoy it - most of the time I will end a season about level so it is not something for the betting goldmine thread

Joeymaz 23-03-2011 10:16 AM

Definitely gonna be on D Johnson at Bay Hill and MAJ in Spain.
Gonna have a look at some of the bigger prices for some smaller bets

Swanny32 25-03-2011 07:38 AM

Dustin needs to play very well today to make the cut.

Beckenham Boy 25-03-2011 08:44 AM

Not as well as GMac :eek:

Finbar 25-03-2011 04:25 PM

Was going to post the exact same comment BB :p

Annoying, meant to back Poulter this morning, just remembered now so assumed I could as he probably hadn't started, he's only played 14 holes!! :grrr:

Backed him at 28.0 rather than the 60.0 or so he would have probably been overnight. Interesting that before the tournament he was tweeting about how well he was swinging, from the looks of it it was more than him just talking himself up (as usual). Still not sure if I like him (says what he thinks even if a lot of it is bollocks) or hate him (a lot of what he says is bollocks!)

Swanny32 28-03-2011 01:41 PM

So who'd have thunk it, two Brits win on the PGA and European tours this weekend, it's times like this when I like to refer to them as Brits. Well done lads, as soon as you start playing crap you'll be Scots again.

Finbar 28-03-2011 01:46 PM

Funny how I bet on golf, watch it a fair bit, buy the odd golf magazine, yet I still don't know what Martin Laird or Brian Davis look like

Great stuff though, good be a great year for Europe hopefully

Fat Andy 28-03-2011 02:29 PM

Brian Davis is Dougie's brother in law.

Beckenham Boy 28-03-2011 02:32 PM

Picked up on Rose - looked like he was in with a shout for the win when all around were losing their heads but no quite. Well done Martin and Paul

Finbar 28-03-2011 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Andy
Brian Davis is Dougie's brother in law.

Blimey, good fact :p


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