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Old 31-08-2018, 11:45 AM
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What should the odds be on this?

What should the odds be on this football handicap bet?

I've been going through this in mind and am struggling to get it straight. Perhaps someone can help?

Imagine a football match between Chelsea and Wolves. I have worked out that Chelsea will win by about 2 goals. I think this is the average margin I can expect. If they repeat this fixture many times, sometimes Chelsea will win by more than 2 and sometimes by fewer than 2 (or lose or draw), but on average the margin will be 2.

I look for 2-way Asian Handicap odds, and see there is a market for Chelsea -1.5. What would be the fair odds I should expect, to represent an average win by 2 goals?

It's not a trick question, it's something I have been puzzling over in an effort to improve my handicap betting. Any help welcome
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