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  #116541  
Old 18-10-2019, 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted by evvo111 View Post
If it's a tie does the Speaker have the casting vote? That could be interesting

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  #116542  
Old 18-10-2019, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Wolfnipplechips View Post
Not up to date atm....


What does the Letwin amendment say?
its complicated. It forces Johnson to ask for an extension and he could then withdraw the extension if all the appropriate legislation is passed by 31 Oct along with a commons vote on the deal itself being passed. It avoids there being a succesful vote tomorrow but then we still crash out because the appropriate legislation can't be done in time (or is deliberately stalled to faciltate a no deal Brexit). It therefore removes the need for a meaningful vote tomorrow which is a bit of an anticlaimax. Post extension Johnson then has to decide whether to try and pass the legislation by 31st Oct or to call a general election. I don't really get that bit though. Surely he'd try to get the legislation passed?
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  #116543  
Old 18-10-2019, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Wolfnipplechips View Post
Thanks Skate... just read that in the Guardian and was about to post it.
It also means that Boris can keep his 31 October deadline to leave, even if the EU have agreed to an extension. He just needs to get the legislation through by then which he would have needed to do anyway.

My guess is the government will oppose the amendment but all opposition parties, and all of the no-deal Tory rebels will back it and it will succeed.

It would not though be surprising if the deal then passes (amended by the Letwin amendment) if the EU rejected the January extension and offered one until the end of November. That would be enough time for both the UK and EU to pass the necessary legislation.
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  #116544  
Old 18-10-2019, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Shoreditch CPFC View Post
its complicated. It forces Johnson to ask for an extension and he could then withdraw the extension if all the appropriate legislation is passed by 31 Oct along with a commons vote on the deal itself being passed. It avoids there being a succesful vote tomorrow but then we still crash out because the appropriate legislation can't be done in time (or is deliberately stalled to faciltate a no deal Brexit). It therefore removes the need for a meaningful vote tomorrow which is a bit of an anticlaimax. Post extension Johnson then has to decide whether to try and pass the legislation by 31st Oct or to call a general election. I don't really get that bit though. Surely he'd try to get the legislation passed?
The meaningful vote still happens though does it not?

It amends the motion but if the motion then passes the deal is agreed?
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  #116545  
Old 18-10-2019, 03:38 PM
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Originally Posted by GreatGonzo View Post
The meaningful vote still happens though does it not?

It amends the motion but if the motion then passes the deal is agreed?
No, the amended motion would not count as an agreed deal. Johnson would have to ask for extension which would still be null and void if he managed to agree a deal before EUCO approve.
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  #116546  
Old 18-10-2019, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by SKATE View Post
Latest on the Letwin amendment...

"Understand Labour will support the Letwin amendment - which makes it likely to pass.
Would force Johnson to request an extension tomorrow; and mean we won't get a clean, up-and-down vote on his deal."
For me, this is the key vote tomorrow. If it passes it will enable scrutiny (amongst other things) on the financial impact of the deal which the chancellor said he wouldn't have available before Saturday.

Cummins/bojo's strategy all along has been to run down the clock, scare everyone with no deal then bounce the EU and Hoc into agreeing his policy without debate and due diligence.

The fact that he had run down the clock meant he had to capitulate to the EU and has come back waving a worthless piece of claiming 'peace in our time!"

From Letwins proposal it is clear that he is not trying to stop the bill just to give it the appropriate oversight.....which considering it's the most important piece of legislation (excl world wars) since Home Rule, is surely appropriate.
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  #116547  
Old 18-10-2019, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Poosence View Post
No, the amended motion would not count as an agreed deal. Johnson would have to ask for extension which would still be null and void if he managed to agree a deal before EUCO approve.
My understanding was that once the legislation is passed the vote tomorrow to approve the amended motion would mean the deal is approved.

Otherwise MPs could spend weeks passing irrelevant legislation if they then don't vote for a deal in a future vote. Tomorrow is the day to say if the deal is going through. The Letwin amendment i thought just changes that from agreed tomorrow to it is agreed once all legislation is passed.
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  #116548  
Old 18-10-2019, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Johnybegood View Post
... it will enable scrutiny (amongst other things) on the financial impact of the deal which the chancellor said he wouldn't have available before Saturday...
Unlike in-exile, I have not had the time to do a line by line analysis of the impact of Boris's deal but I think I can help the chancellor out with this.

The financial impact of the deal will be sh*t. It will be way less sh*ttier than no deal, but it will still be sh*t.
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  #116549  
Old 18-10-2019, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by GreatGonzo View Post
My understanding was that once the legislation is passed the vote tomorrow to approve the amended motion would mean the deal is approved.

Otherwise MPs could spend weeks passing irrelevant legislation if they then don't vote for a deal in a future vote. Tomorrow is the day to say if the deal is going through. The Letwin amendment i thought just changes that from agreed tomorrow to it is agreed once all legislation is passed.
My understanding: They are not voting on the withdrawal act. It's a meaningful vote. This one could pass, the act itself could still fail
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  #116550  
Old 18-10-2019, 04:03 PM
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An amendment to motion 2 has been proposed pushing a second referendum.

If motion 1 passes then motion 2 will never be debated so the referendum only gets debated if the deal is rejected.
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  #116551  
Old 18-10-2019, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by SKATE View Post
My understanding: They are not voting on the withdrawal act. It's a meaningful vote. This one could pass, the act itself could still fail

I have just managed to find the wording of the motion and the wording of the amendment and i have changed my view.

It withholds approval of the deal until all legislation has been passed. So if that effectively says no, pass the legislation and then put this to a vote it could just create a massive waste of time. All that parliamentary time spent passing legislation only for MPs to say no at the end of it.

Would have been happy if that amendment passed the deal subject the the legislation being completed.
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  #116552  
Old 18-10-2019, 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by GreatGonzo View Post
I have just managed to find the wording of the motion and the wording of the amendment and i have changed my view.

It withholds approval of the deal until all legislation has been passed. So if that effectively says no, pass the legislation and then put this to a vote it could just create a massive waste of time. All that parliamentary time spent passing legislation only for MPs to say no at the end of it.

Would have been happy if that amendment passed the deal subject the the legislation being completed.
You don't think a bit of parliamentary scrutiny on legislation (I guess it's an international treaty), which will change the direction of this nation forever, is a good idea?
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  #116553  
Old 18-10-2019, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by SKATE View Post
You don't think a bit of parliamentary scrutiny on legislation (I guess it's an international treaty), which will change the direction of this nation forever, is a good idea?
Where do you get that from?

I said I would be happy if the agreement was passed subject to all necessary legislation passing, that would give plenty of opportunity for scrutiny.

What i don't think is a good idea ifs spending all that time scrutinising and agreeing legislation and then still needing another vote to pass the thing.

I don;t think a few of the EU will be impressed with that either, especially France.
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  #116554  
Old 18-10-2019, 04:53 PM
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There is a special place in hell for those Labour MPs coming out in favour of Johnson's monstrosity.
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  #116555  
Old 18-10-2019, 05:15 PM
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Guys .... Give it up ..... The EU have.
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  #116556  
Old 18-10-2019, 05:22 PM
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Guys .... Give it up ..... The EU have.
Oh. Have we won?
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  #116557  
Old 18-10-2019, 05:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Poosence View Post
No, the amended motion would not count as an agreed deal. Johnson would have to ask for extension which would still be null and void if he managed to agree a deal before EUCO approve.
In truth that would play well. A deal and showing willingness to compromise with parliament.
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  #116558  
Old 18-10-2019, 06:05 PM
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Originally Posted by SKATE View Post
There is a special place in hell for those Labour MPs coming out in favour of Johnson's monstrosity.
I agree. Feeling very depressed this evening.

Is Letwin's amendment definitely going to be selected?
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  #116559  
Old 18-10-2019, 06:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Shoreditch CPFC View Post
its complicated. It forces Johnson to ask for an extension and he could then withdraw the extension if all the appropriate legislation is passed by 31 Oct along with a commons vote on the deal itself being passed. It avoids there being a succesful vote tomorrow but then we still crash out because the appropriate legislation can't be done in time (or is deliberately stalled to faciltate a no deal Brexit). It therefore removes the need for a meaningful vote tomorrow which is a bit of an anticlaimax. Post extension Johnson then has to decide whether to try and pass the legislation by 31st Oct or to call a general election. I don't really get that bit though. Surely he'd try to get the legislation passed?
An extension takes away the time pressure (running down the clock has been both May & Johnson tactic throughout) - plenty of time for a whole raft of other amendments and shenanigans from the anti-Johnsons.
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  #116560  
Old 18-10-2019, 06:14 PM
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Guys .... Give it up ..... The EU have.
Yes the EU have stopped because Johnson rolled over
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