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  #81  
Old 12-07-2019, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by GorBlimey View Post
Explain his first season with us then.


This is utter f*cking bollocks.
Actually, his first season wasn't all that impressive - he still converted the chances he did have at a rate lower than the league average (expected goals was 20, actual goals 17). If he'd converted chances at the rate he did at Villa (i.e. what we thought we were paying for), he'd have got 25 for us.

Surely we pay him all that money to be better than average, to put away more difficult chances than an average striker. Although, admittedly part of having a chance in the first place is the movement/anticipation/pace/strength required to get on the end of it.

I'll make the point again that if I was hired to be a top-paid senior developer and did well the first year, then in the second year I wiped all the servers and in the third year slept with the MD's wife, I don't think I'd still be able to point to that first year to justify my salary and continued employment.

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  #82  
Old 12-07-2019, 10:18 AM
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It will be like Marco Reich all over again this season, I have no doubt he will have a great season and **** off for free.
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  #83  
Old 12-07-2019, 10:42 AM
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"17 Premeier League goals in a season isn't all that"

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  #84  
Old 12-07-2019, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by eagle mart View Post
"17 Premeier League goals in a season isn't all that"

"He's going to leave us on free - just to spite us."

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I did put the caveat that obviously part of goalscoring is getting on the end of the chance in the first place. I don't think he's doing that as well as he was anymore, often hiding behind defenders or just not in danger zone at all when a cross comes in.

However the point remains that given the same chances he had, the average finisher would score 20 and a great one would score 25. As a team, we finished chances better than average in 2016/17 (excluding Benteke), way below average in 2017/18 (mainly due to Benteke) and bang on average last season (despite Benteke).

So maybe we just created an unusually high number of chances for him in that season and he converted an acceptable percentage.
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  #85  
Old 12-07-2019, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by eagle mart View Post
"17 Premeier League goals in a season isn't all that"

"He's going to leave us on free - just to spite us."

This place.
Yep. Itís a joke and keeps getting worse.


I know for fact Benteke played with knee injury for over 12 months before getting surgery. He wasnít fit. He wasnít confident and a lot of time isolated. Did he miss some easy chances.. yes. The reason he played with that injury was because our lack of options.

I genuinely believe if he comes back fit and sharp this season he will score 10-15 for us. He does look fitter and sharper already.. so fingers crossed.
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  #86  
Old 12-07-2019, 12:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Thefunkymonk View Post
Yep. Itís a joke and keeps getting worse.


I know for fact Benteke played with knee injury for over 12 months before getting surgery. He wasnít fit. He wasnít confident and a lot of time isolated. Did he miss some easy chances.. yes. The reason he played with that injury was because our lack of options.

I genuinely believe if he comes back fit and sharp this season he will score 10-15 for us. He does look fitter and sharper already.. so fingers crossed.
Any half decent striker that plays upfront every week for us should get at least 10 goals in a season. The likes of Chris wood or Jay Rodriguez would get 10 goals playing upfront for palace.
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  #87  
Old 12-07-2019, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by BillyTKid View Post
Any half decent striker that plays upfront every week for us should get at least 10 goals in a season. The likes of Chris wood or Jay Rodriguez would get 10 goals playing upfront for palace.

So will a fit Benteke. As proved I his first seasons
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  #88  
Old 12-07-2019, 01:21 PM
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Whether he can recover mentally from all those missed chances, while injured or not, is another matter. Good strikers don't doubt themselves, he seems to second and third-guess every chance, even after scoring it doesn't make the next one any more likely to go in.
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  #89  
Old 12-07-2019, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thefunkymonk View Post
So will a fit Benteke. As proved I his first seasons
He hasnít been injured for two seasons. He featured in 49 games! If he does start scoring again this season, a lot of it will be down to him trying to secure himself one last big contract.
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  #90  
Old 12-07-2019, 02:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyTKid View Post
He hasnít been injured for two seasons. He featured in 49 games! If he does start scoring again this season, a lot of it will be down to him trying to secure himself one last big contract.
He played through a knee injury for over 12 months. It was only finally sorted this season just gone when he had the operation.
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  #91  
Old 12-07-2019, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Thefunkymonk View Post
He played through a knee injury for over 12 months. It was only finally sorted this season just gone when he had the operation.
Why won't we offer him a new contract then, after such terrific service to our great club from the big man?
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  #92  
Old 12-07-2019, 02:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stumpy feelers View Post
He'll score 18 goals this season. You read it here first.
Course he will all the signs are there .
Exzibit A : 0 goals from open play with either foot in the past 2 YEARS and 3 months
Exzibit B : 3 headers and 1 pen in the past 2 years

You don't have to be LT Colombo to work out this once very very good player is mentally shot , he doesn't do things instinctively any more , he canít control the ball at his feet and looks like he is second guessing / doubting himself when he gets in good positions ,
I hope he turns things around but just can't see it happening ,fully behind him every time he pulls on a red&blue shirt but there's no getting away from the fact he has been truly awful for the past 2 years .
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  #93  
Old 12-07-2019, 02:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thefunkymonk View Post
He played through a knee injury for over 12 months. It was only finally sorted this season just gone when he had the operation.
When exactly did he get his knee injury ? His form has been bad since May 2017 so was it then ?
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  #94  
Old 12-07-2019, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Thefunkymonk View Post
He played through a knee injury for over 12 months. It was only finally sorted this season just gone when he had the operation.
Great.

A guy with a knackered Achilles has chronic knee issues.

And people want to re-sign him for 6 figures a week?
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  #95  
Old 12-07-2019, 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted by AddoWolz View Post
Course he will all the signs are there .
Exzibit A : 0 goals from open play with either foot in the past 2 YEARS and 3 months
Exzibit B : 3 headers and 1 pen in the past 2 years

You don't have to be LT Colombo to work out this once very very good player is mentally shot , he doesn't do things instinctively any more , he canít control the ball at his feet and looks like he is second guessing / doubting himself when he gets in good positions ,
I hope he turns things around but just can't see it happening ,fully behind him every time he pulls on a red&blue shirt but there's no getting away from the fact he has been truly awful for the past 2 years .
yep he is shot. Absolutely know anticipation of where the ball is gonna go etc., its embarrasing to watch him chase a ball/chance thats already gone! Best we can hopeful is better service to his head
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  #96  
Old 12-07-2019, 03:38 PM
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yep he is shot. Absolutely know anticipation of where the ball is gonna go etc., its embarrasing to watch him chase a ball/chance thats already gone! Best we can hopeful is better service to his head
Thought he misses loads of sitters though?
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  #97  
Old 12-07-2019, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by WorthingEagle View Post
Actually, his first season wasn't all that impressive - he still converted the chances he did have at a rate lower than the league average (expected goals was 20, actual goals 17). If he'd converted chances at the rate he did at Villa (i.e. what we thought we were paying for), he'd have got 25 for us.

Surely we pay him all that money to be better than average, to put away more difficult chances than an average striker. Although, admittedly part of having a chance in the first place is the movement/anticipation/pace/strength required to get on the end of it.

I'll make the point again that if I was hired to be a top-paid senior developer and did well the first year, then in the second year I wiped all the servers and in the third year slept with the MD's wife, I don't think I'd still be able to point to that first year to justify my salary and continued employment.
Using your expected goals logic, Ronaldo was a failure at Real Madrid (his expected goals were generally higher than his actual goals). Very few players outperform expected goals on a consistent basis. As you do mention, the most important part of a top striker is their ability to find space and chances with movement, anticipation etc.

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  #98  
Old 12-07-2019, 03:54 PM
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Using your expected goals logic, Ronaldo was a failure at Real Madrid (his expected goals were generally higher than his actual goals). Very few players outperform expected goals on a consistent basis. As you do mention, the most important part of a top striker is their ability to find space and chances with movement, anticipation etc.

So you're saying we shouldn't expect any player to score the number of goals they would be expected to score?
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Old 12-07-2019, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Eddie McGoldrick's tash View Post
So you're saying we shouldn't expect any player to score the number of goals they would be expected to score?
Pretty much, yes! Ronaldo would generally underperform his expected goals by one or two afaik. So I don’t think Benteke underperforming his by 3 is too outrageous, especially when you take into account the penalty misses.

I don’t even wanna know his expected goals vs actual goals in the past two seasons though.

Last edited by CP-RJW; 12-07-2019 at 04:05 PM.
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  #100  
Old 12-07-2019, 04:03 PM
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Originally Posted by CP-RJW View Post
Using your expected goals logic, Ronaldo was a failure at Real Madrid (his expected goals were generally higher than his actual goals). Very few players outperform expected goals on a consistent basis. As you do mention, the most important part of a top striker is their ability to find space and chances with movement, anticipation etc.

Perhaps. Unfortunately he's not finding the space to get as many chances as he should, and when he does, he's missing them.

However you read the stats, it's 4 goals in 49. Stick a traffic cone in the six-yard-box for two seasons and it would get more through random chance.
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