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  #181  
Old 29-05-2010, 11:59 PM
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Paul Parker?! am i in a time warp?
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  #182  
Old 30-05-2010, 12:38 AM
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Originally Posted by herts_palace
Doesn't matter I have laid off nearly 80 so make 60 even if he doesn't.
I still don't think you're catching my drift

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  #183  
Old 30-05-2010, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by GodstoneEagle
I don't think Paul Parker will make the squad mate
Oops - Can I plead tiredness my Lord?

Actually Paul Parker was a decent right back who could defend. We could do with one of those.

Better check the bet just to make sure it was 20/1 for Scott Parker and not Paul Parker.Might explain why it was 20/1 though.
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Last edited by herts_palace; 30-05-2010 at 11:04 AM.
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  #184  
Old 31-05-2010, 07:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
Romania at 70.0, Denmark at 16/1 and Germany at 5.3, can't fail surely
Made a nice profit in the end, got back all my losses overall but made a 10 loss on BF. Azerbaijan started the night at 3.7 so had a big lay on that as even with a good performance I couldn't see it coming in much with their draw, also had Germany for a big green, backed Az back at 4.7 (they peaked at about 4.9 I think) and layed Germany back at 3.4. After that just backed and layed to good effect, had 50 on Denmark at 19.5 before they came on which I layed back at 17.0. Could have layed some of that profit at 2.0 after they got top marks in the first two but didn't, oh welll

In the end I lost 10 on BF and that was only as I layed Germany at 1.22 for a ton having backed them to win with fixed odds, good fun and but for that poor bet on Az on Thursday would have won a lot more.

Main lessons to take away

With 39 votes the effexct of tactical voting is less significant than I thought, though still a factor if close of course

Draw is vital, don't make any big bets before it's done (like I did!!)

Had not realised the Youtube / downloads fact that Herts put up, definitely worth watching oujt for next time, I get the feeling manyv voters were not hearing the German song for the first time

Solo short odds songs may well tend to drift shortly after, singers nerves and the fact they're not pros might be the reason
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  #185  
Old 31-05-2010, 09:28 AM
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Thanks for the post match thoughts Fin. These back up Herts Palace's earlier analysis. I backed Azerbaijan on the night at 2/1, having heard excerpts of the main contenders, believing that Azerbaijan had the best song, and the best song would win. I didn't take sufficient account of politics or the draw, which seemingly helped Germany and hindered Azerbaijan (presumably the draw is the order they sing in, later being a big help). And of course the fact that the German song was already a hit in some countries.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Made a nice profit in the end, got back all my losses overall
Interested in this statement - were you trying to 'get back your losses'? Because I've found when I chase my losses, I usually lose more than I win. The dislike of losing takes over and I forget about having value bets.
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  #186  
Old 31-05-2010, 09:33 AM
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No, wasn't chasing losses, would have bet in the same way even without the Azerbaijan bet. Was often very easy to see which of the two favourites were coming in and going out at any time, got caught once (big bet on Az pushed the price in from 4.0 to 3.8 just after I had laid at 4.0 so backed back for a loss) but overall made money backing high when the weight of money was pushing the price in or laying low when prices were on the drift.

X Factor should offer more of the same opportunities I think
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  #187  
Old 31-05-2010, 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
No, wasn't chasing losses, would have bet in the same way even without the Azerbaijan bet
So getting back your losses was a result of rational betting, not 'chasing'.

Congratulations ("and jubilations")
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  #188  
Old 31-05-2010, 11:22 AM
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Well I might have been a bit more committed and determined leading to more trades than I normally would but the majority were well executed so don't think you can call it chasing
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  #189  
Old 31-05-2010, 12:15 PM
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Well done Fin, glad to hear you made a few bob. I'm now convinced that there is money to be made from this market although this year may have been better as there were several good songs which created market fluctuations. I will try to watch both semis next year so that I can get some early bets in.I also realise that I will need to be quicker off the mark in play next year.If I had been quick when the votes came in my profits would have been a lot greater as I could have laid Denmark for under evens[at one stage my profits on them were over 900]. Perhaps I should invest in Bet Angel or similar.

However, I think the reason I won was not beacause of my trading expertise but because I identified songs that were underrated on the exchanges. 3 of the 4 I selected came in on price and the other[Georgia] finished in the top 10. It always seems easier to back then lay, a lot harder to do the reverse[probably because the losses are greater], although I forced myself to do that with Germany and it paid off. I think a good approach is if you set your own prices so that if a price drops significantly below that you lay them and vice versa. I also got my wife's opinions and I think the more opinion[the more varied the audience the better] you can tap into the better.

I'm not sure that the sequence of songs was as significant as I thought it would be, as voting started straight away. For me what let Azer down [apart from any culural and political voting aspects] was that the song was just not catchy as some of the others so after a while you had forgotten it.

I was also pleased with myself that I reded up on one bet - even though the call was wrong in the end. I do believe that you either don't hedge at all or if you do then you "red up" as well as "green up".

As for X Factor it does offer possibilities but my record is patchy at best. I have had a few losses recently as I have got tied up in the "they can't sing to save their lives" thing[although I didn't make that mistake with Jedward as I knew what Cowell was doing]. With this it is even more important to tap in to the teenage/youth thinking before making any decisions.

Fin do you think anyone puts up trades just to inluence the market without intending the bet to be taken - just a thought? Obviously this would need to be behind the current price otherwise they would risk the bet getting taken.
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  #190  
Old 31-05-2010, 12:46 PM
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Am not sure anyone ever puts up a bet thinking that it's too big to be taken, there is just too much money out there. Am sure that if you are smart enough you can manipulate certain markets by taking, for example, all of the 4.4 to 4.9 available to back, then when the market adjusts the new price might settle at 4.6 at which time you can lay off for a profit, a lot easier said than done.

Actually I think some people may seed markets to give an impression of liquidity that may tempt people into the wrong prices if that's what you were getting at?
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  #191  
Old 31-05-2010, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Am not sure anyone ever puts up a bet thinking that it's too big to be taken, there is just too much money out there. Am sure that if you are smart enough you can manipulate certain markets by taking, for example, all of the 4.4 to 4.9 available to back, then when the market adjusts the new price might settle at 4.6 at which time you can lay off for a profit, a lot easier said than done.

Actually I think some people may seed markets to give an impression of liquidity that may tempt people into the wrong prices if that's what you were getting at?
Yep that is exactly what I was getting at.
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  #192  
Old 02-06-2010, 11:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herts_palace
Anyone done any trading on the England World Cup Squad market?

I have done a mixture of trades and Arbs and I am looking at a reasonable profit. Greened up on quite a few. Star bet was 20 on Paul Parker @20/1 prior to the squad of 30 being announced. I have been able to lay about 70 off at about 3/1 since.
Made more from this than Eurovision in the end. There was some fantastic odds available on BF prior to squad being announced. Theo Walcott could have been laid for 1.11 [ I couldn't see it myself] and Warnock could have been backed for at least 5.0. Looking at the Gossip on BBC there was an article in the Daily Mail yesterday suggesting that Baines was homesick. If I had seen that yesterday morning then that coupled with Baines's poor performance against Mexico would have tempted me in. Could have got SWP for 8.0 also. Initially I did have some bets[i.e. Upson not to go] but when 3 experts all included him, I realised I might have this one wrong so I "greened up". In the end had virtually no potential losses at all.

In my opinion a ***** market for trading.
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  #193  
Old 02-06-2010, 12:46 PM
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Nicely done, assumed there wasn't the liquidity for my kind of trading but will keep a more open mind about other markets in future
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  #194  
Old 02-06-2010, 12:52 PM
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I don't do it much myself, but what I like about this trading is the way it seems to detach you from the players in the market. It seems you don't really care who wins or loses, you're just looking for profit opportunities.
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  #195  
Old 02-06-2010, 01:04 PM
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Trading to win 300

Right, plan is to (by the end of the World Cup)

1. Only trade over/under 1.5 goals on my Betfair account, no other markets
2. Trade on 26+ matches
3. Average approx 2% profit on bank for each trade in a WC match
4. Average approx 1% profit on any pre WC matches
5. Make at least 300 profit on top of 454 starting bank
6. Must trade out for level loss if bet goes badly (always tempting to leave the +1.5 goals at level or a small profit and the other side as a bad loss)

Will regularly send an updated spreadsheet to the betting masters email address.

Started on June 1st (was too worried about other things to post this up yesterday!)

Let's see how I go!

Access spreadsheet at To view the link you have to Register or Login

username = bbsbettingmasters
password = palacebbs

Holland match last night gave a 1.26% profit, need a bet to be matched at 1.08 on the Brazil game otherwise I may have to get out for pretty much even (or a loss if I leave it too late and end up taking 1.1 as a last resort)

Disclaimer

I may get bored and quit especially if I start badly, hopefully not
Rule 6 likely to get broken if one team is far stronger than the oppo
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  #196  
Old 02-06-2010, 01:13 PM
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How will you trade +/- 1.5 goals Fin? Will you bet on over 1.5 or under 1.5?
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  #197  
Old 02-06-2010, 01:34 PM
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Well in the end I got out for a 9p win! If I had waited another minute I would have been matched but wasn't prepared to let it go that close to kick off.

Was not a game I had planned on betting on and am hopefull that WC games will be a lot easier.

The way I trade o/u 1.5 goals is almost always to find games where the price is 1.3 or lower and back the overs (though rarely taking what is available), then laying at lower odds, when the off gets close you get some big bets which take almost any price, not always but often.

I say 1.3 or lower but the best match was the champs league where the price stayed static at 1.5-1.51, from my 400 bank I had 3600 matched at those two prices and made 24, very satisfying and from a bigger bank would have been even better. Hoping WC will be like that but 2-3% of bank should be quite doable. Will have the odd losing game I expect especially if I go for the higher prices (i.e. 1.4 or bigger)

Safe games are the least profitable, Barca / Madrid at home you can gurantee big late money for the overs no matter what the price

Still miffed I didn't wait that little bit longer in the Brazil match, 8k traded right before the off.

Next one will be the Spain game tomorrow, think I'll leave the Poland match tonight unless there looks to be a definite opportunity (famous last words)
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  #198  
Old 02-06-2010, 03:08 PM
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Nicely done, assumed there wasn't the liquidity for my kind of trading but will keep a more open mind about other markets in future
I'm not sure about that Fin. There was often a big difference between bet and lay prices [ Upson, Adam Johnson and Joe Cole] but a fair bit of activity. In the last 2-3 days I had both lay and back bets accepted within a short time period. What also helped was that Bookies showed a big variance in prices as well.

Just counted - a total of 84 bets or lays on Betfair for this market!
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Old 02-06-2010, 03:20 PM
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Nice

Just taken the 1.19 there on Spain o1.5 goals tomorrow, am certain 1.18 will be matched by the morning, bookies best odds (often a good indication but you can't rely on it) are 1.15. Hopefully make 2 or 3 trades on that market
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Old 02-06-2010, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
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Right, plan is to (by the end of the World Cup)

1. Only trade over/under 1.5 goals on my Betfair account, no other markets


I may get bored and quit especially if I start badly, hopefully not
Rule 6 likely to get broken if one team is far stronger than the oppo
Is the fact that you will only trade on o/u 1.5 to test the viability of the market for trading? Or are there other reasons you are not including other markets?

Also why is 6 likely to be broken if 1 team is much stronger than the other?[Edit - now understand this] As I see it there are 2 major factors in this market.

1. How quickly the 1st goal is scored [if any]
2. The likelihood of there being another goal once a goal is scored.Obvioulsly if 1 team is much stronger than the other and the weaker team get the first goal then the market will be a lot differerent than if the reverse happens.

I would have thought that the o/u 2.5 is more interesting as it is more balanced. Why are you not trading on this market where the potential for trades would apparently be greater?
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