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  #201  
Old 02-06-2010, 03:39 PM
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I only do 1.5 goals as that seems to have the least volatility and be the most predictable. 3.5 can have the same characteristics but doesn't have the same big lump bets at almost any price which are always nice to have.

All the trading is pre event by the way.

6 is easy to break as rather than take, for example, a 5 loss irrespective of who wins it's often very tempting to have one small green or zero on the overs and the under 1.5 (always the least likely outcome) at -20 for example, if it goes wrong takes a good trade to recover it.

Requires patience but if I can get ball rolling it is very satisfying as the losses are quite rare.

In short the unders / overs markets (pretty much all of them) are fairly predictable and have a lot of money going through them (actually that's their main attraction) so if you can make 450 make you money then you can pretty much do the same for 2500 at not far off the same profitability, not normally the case in markets outside of Win Lose Draw. My plan is to get my bank into 4 figures sooner rather than later. I just need to only use my Betfair account for this and not get involved in in running snooker betting, tricky as it's such fun!
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  #202  
Old 02-06-2010, 03:40 PM
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As always fin, I will watch intently and make inane comments
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  #203  
Old 02-06-2010, 03:46 PM
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Well it's something to keep us entertained even if it doesn't lead to my retirement quite yet...
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  #204  
Old 02-06-2010, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar

All the trading is pre event by the way.

Apologies I was forgetting that key point.
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  #205  
Old 03-06-2010, 02:37 PM
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Spain match is 1.22 Over 1.5 goals on BF at the moment.
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  #206  
Old 03-06-2010, 02:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord_Muffin
Spain match is 1.22 Over 1.5 goals on BF at the moment.
Not much value in that bet - could conceivably be 0-0 or 1-0
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  #207  
Old 03-06-2010, 02:44 PM
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I agree. Was thinking of Finbars trading.
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  #208  
Old 03-06-2010, 02:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord_Muffin
Spain match is 1.22 Over 1.5 goals on BF at the moment.
Yep my 1.18 was matched overnight, it's been steadily climbing (in line with the o2.5 goals which has drifted like a barge) all day. Managed to back at 6.2 (unders) and then at 1.2 (overs) quite a bit. Waiting for the last 50 of my money to be matched at 1.21 (am at the front of the queue) to secure a 13 (shade under 3%) win no matter what

Main tool today has been betting on the side that the bulk of the money isn't, most noticably no one was laying at 6.0 when trying to back at 1.2

Had my 1.18 not been matched overnight (1.5k was) then I would like to think I would have got out at 1.19 for zero profit and then made the same profit on the drift, not so sure I would though... Still more profit from this match than I expected (even if I need to get out at higher than 1.21 for the final 50)

Just backed the unders at 5.3 to get out at 12 profit, 2.6%ish which am happy with (could have been better but o2.5 has drifted a lot)

+11.34 for u1.5 goals
+12.15 for o1.5 goals

List of my bets so far if anyone is interested (not sure if these will be leggible or not, have done average odds as the other way would not have been)


Under 1.5 Goals 6.07 225.34 1,143.60
Ref: Bet matched:

Over 1.5 Goals 1.2 1,911.16 387.89
Ref: Bet matched:

2,136.50
Lay Backer's
Odds Backer's
Stake Payout
Liability
Lay Backer's
Odds Backer's
Stake Payout Liability
Under 1.5 Goals 6 66.00 396.00 330.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Over 1.5 Goals 1.19 1,109.50 1,325.26 215.76
Ref: Bet matched:
1,175.50
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  #209  
Old 03-06-2010, 03:04 PM
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Is that you done for the day then Finbar or do you expect it come back down to 1.18 or even lower?
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  #210  
Old 03-06-2010, 03:06 PM
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quite surprised (and reassuring) how little the 1.5 has drifted compared to the 2.5

1.5 gone from 1.19 this morning to 1.23 to back now
2.5 gone from 1.60 this morning to 1.77 to back now

10% increase vs a 3.5%ish increase, pretty much why I prefer 1.5 as the variance is much less (and I still wouldn't be surprised to see some late backers at any price forcing the price down to 1.2 or 1.21 near kick off)
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  #211  
Old 03-06-2010, 03:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord_Muffin
Is that you done for the day then Finbar or do you expect it come back down to 1.18 or even lower?
Done for the day, prefer not to get involved in the last hour if poss as funny things happen and this is meant to be almost zero risk. Looking at the o2.5 price I think it might not come in, might be some o1.5 / o2.5 backers trying to trade out forcing the price up as well

Quite chuffed that the thing I fear most (a drift) still didn't stop me from making a profit, quite the opposite, in the Holland game there was more money traded, the price fell as hoped and I made less
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  #212  
Old 03-06-2010, 03:28 PM
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1.25 now and still drifting...
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  #213  
Old 03-06-2010, 03:35 PM
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People might be realising that the game might not be as one-sided as they thought. I think 1.25 is too low
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  #214  
Old 03-06-2010, 03:37 PM
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Tricky one, can't see Spain not scoring at least two, even if stars are rested the non stars will want to impress...mind you didn't quite work that way for England!
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  #215  
Old 03-06-2010, 03:43 PM
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I think Spain will probably score 2, but the odds on 'over 2.5 goals' are poor (South Korea play a defensive game).
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  #216  
Old 04-06-2010, 07:52 AM
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The market knew!
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  #217  
Old 04-06-2010, 10:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
The market knew!
You mean the odds on +1.5 goals lengthened before the game, and as the match finished 1-0 they were moving in what proved to be the right direction. You could also argue that the market didn't know, because 1.25 was much too low
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  #218  
Old 04-06-2010, 10:15 AM
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Which is why I like that market to trade so much, diverse opinions! 1.28 (the SP) looked big to me, still luckyily I didn't care if it was over or under
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  #219  
Old 04-06-2010, 10:24 AM
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Just tried some arbing on England.

England were 1.34 to beat Bangladesh (a good price I thought anyway) and England could be laid at 1.3 to win the series 2-0, i.e not win this final test.

I thought this was a definite arb, but i've probably just cocked up my figures as I did it in a rush.

Took the 40 lay on england 2-0 to put me +38 and -12.
Then put 40 back on england to win to put me on -40 and +12.54.

So i make it that if England win I win 54p and if they don't i lose 2. Which is about 1.27 or something, less than the price to back.

Is this me buggering it up or just the margins too small and my 5% commission taking out any potential profit?
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  #220  
Old 05-06-2010, 01:21 PM
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herts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Which is why I like that market to trade so much, diverse opinions! 1.28 (the SP) looked big to me, still luckyily I didn't care if it was over or under
That's why I like both trading and Arbing. You don't have to be able to know what the result will be [or probably be] you just need to know the market[or bookies in the case of Arbs] and the factors affecting them. An appreciation of Value is useful. Then wait for the event to start and put your feet up.

One thing I would be interested in studying. Where there is a marked difference between the Bookies and Betfair - who usualy gets it right or is it 50 - 50? I am particularly interested in the infrequent cases [not rare fortuntely!] where Betfair's price is shorter than 1 or more of the bookies.

Rhetorical question by the way!
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Last edited by herts_palace; 05-06-2010 at 01:46 PM.
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