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  #10401  
Old 09-05-2021, 08:41 PM
Philipw Philipw is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by El Aguila View Post
The Tories should put up the bloke that murdered Jo Cox, just to see if he can win it.
you normally post sensible stuff but that is out of order - even for this forum
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  #10402  
Old 09-05-2021, 08:52 PM
Johnybegood Johnybegood is offline
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Originally Posted by Philipw View Post
you normally post sensible stuff but that is out of order - even for this forum
Frankly, its the thing that bugs me most about the 2016 referendum, some dismiss it as a nutter but would have v.different view if the same nutters chose to invade Afghanistan on the back of 9/11.
I will never forgive my own brother for voting alongside or inspired by the leave posters that advocated racism, xenophobia which in its worst extreme resulted in the death of Jo Cox.....and I never will
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  #10403  
Old 09-05-2021, 08:58 PM
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Originally Posted by DANGERMOUSE View Post
The trouble is that while that article might explain why working class people don't vote Labour, it doesn't explain why they do vote Tory. The contention would be more convincing if Labour voters simply didn't turn up, but that's not what's happening.
In fairness that's exactly what happened in Hartlepool,
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  #10404  
Old 09-05-2021, 08:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Philipw View Post
you normally post sensible stuff but that is out of order - even for this forum
And some might say he is pointing out the start of a discernible direction of travel.
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  #10405  
Old 09-05-2021, 09:19 PM
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Significant Tory losses here in Oxfordshire, mainly to the Lib Dems. Tory leader had lost his seat and the Tories have just one seat more than the Lib Dems, but there's a legal challenge by Labour in one seat.
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  #10406  
Old 09-05-2021, 09:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philipw View Post
you normally post sensible stuff but that is out of order - even for this forum
You're right, I probably shouldn't be giving them ideas. Let them do their own polling.
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  #10407  
Old 09-05-2021, 09:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Selhurst300 View Post
Significant Tory losses here in Oxfordshire, mainly to the Lib Dems. Tory leader had lost his seat and the Tories have just one seat more than the Lib Dems, but there's a legal challenge by Labour in one seat.
Is that the one where the returning officer announced the wrong result?
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  #10408  
Old 09-05-2021, 10:57 PM
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Quote:
Meanwhile, Starmer's estimated share of the vote (as calculated by Rallings and Thrasher) is the lowest achieved by a new opposition leader on record.

We only have data going back to 1979, and his performance (30%) is the worst of anyone on record.
...
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  #10409  
Old 09-05-2021, 10:58 PM
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Quote:
Starmer has lost 326 seats (-7%), the worst local election results for a new opposition leader in over 40 years.

CON: 2,345 (+235)
LAB: 1,345 (-326)
LD: 586 (+7)
GRN: 151 (+88)
...
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  #10410  
Old 09-05-2021, 11:12 PM
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Reeves and Streeting the new people brought in it goes from bad to worse.
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  #10411  
Old 09-05-2021, 11:41 PM
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Lots of principal Skinner in front of a broken window from both wings of the party (and a few on here) at the moment.
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  #10412  
Old 10-05-2021, 05:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cockneyrebel View Post
...
Nice to see the Greens increasing though.
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  #10413  
Old 10-05-2021, 06:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cockneyrebel View Post
...
"Starmer has lost 326 seats (-7%), the worst local election results for a new opposition leader in over 40 years.

CON: 2,345 (+235)
LAB: 1,345 (-326)
LD: 586 (+7)
GRN: 151 (+88)"

...and yet on all the results taken together, the BBC reported a 3% swing to Labour. Welsh Labour, who had the benefit of daily Covid briefings, like Sturgeon's SNP, and both gained seats. Labour also returned 11 out of the 13 mayoral constituencies on offer.

The outcome in our FPTP system is not all that it seems.
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  #10414  
Old 10-05-2021, 06:09 AM
Skintagain Skintagain is offline
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  #10415  
Old 10-05-2021, 06:16 AM
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  #10416  
Old 10-05-2021, 06:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adrenalin john View Post
In fairness that's exactly what happened in Hartlepool,
The Labour vote stayed at home?
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  #10417  
Old 10-05-2021, 06:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DANGERMOUSE View Post
The Labour vote stayed at home?
Let me double check the historical figures but yes, I think so
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  #10418  
Old 10-05-2021, 06:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Skintagain View Post
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  #10419  
Old 10-05-2021, 06:32 AM
N Herts Eagle N Herts Eagle is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SE25 exile View Post
"Starmer has lost 326 seats (-7%), the worst local election results for a new opposition leader in over 40 years.

CON: 2,345 (+235)
LAB: 1,345 (-326)
LD: 586 (+7)
GRN: 151 (+88)"

...and yet on all the results taken together, the BBC reported a 3% swing to Labour. Welsh Labour, who had the benefit of daily Covid briefings, like Sturgeon's SNP, and both gained seats. Labour also returned 11 out of the 13 mayoral constituencies on offer.

The outcome in our FPTP system is not all that it seems.
Looking at it the 3% swing is if these votes were then applied to a General Election. That being the 2019 one then Labour was starting from a low base.
Sky project a Labour seat total of 206 up what 3.
I think it has a few issues low turnout a far higher Green vote. Which appears to have picked up some unhappy Labour support. Take a look at Bristol council for example. If that happens in an election Starmer has real trouble squeezed between a Tory on one side and Green on the other.
Batley and Spen is really an election at the worst time for him. If he wins it means little it was expected if he loses then the pressure will mount further.
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  #10420  
Old 10-05-2021, 06:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by N Herts Eagle View Post
Looking at it the 3% swing is if these votes were then applied to a General Election. That being the 2019 one then Labour was starting from a low base.
Sky project a Labour seat total of 206 up what 3.
I think it has a few issues low turnout a far higher Green vote. Which appears to have picked up some unhappy Labour support. Take a look at Bristol council for example. If that happens in an election Starmer has real trouble squeezed between a Tory on one side and Green on the other.
Batley and Spen is really an election at the worst time for him. If he wins it means little it was expected if he loses then the pressure will mount further.
Yep, agreed.

Another result here reflecting both a Labour gain and a Green surge.

David Cameron's old seat, and where he still lives

Witney North and East (Oxfordshire) council result:
Lab: 40.1% (+14.3)
Con: 30.4% (-22.6)
Grn: 23.5% (+15.9)
RefUK: 6.0% (+6.0)
Lab GAIN from Conservative
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