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  #21  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:13 PM
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It's been largely ignored by climate change deniers for four years now.

Edited to smaller version.
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  #22  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ifill Over View Post
I have decided to create this thread to put up an alternative view of the climate to that which the UN/IPCC have with the demonising of CO2, in particular, the role humans play.

No doubt there will be ridicule, unlike the UN/IPCC I will have the Science Papers to back up my claims, which can be replicated by those who wish to do so. So I see this thread as a journey.

More importantly, the climate over the coming years starting now will prove or disprove this thread and the science.

My view is that the sun has the greatest impact on our climate and our neighbouring planets. The cycles of the sun are influenced by the sun’s internal dynamo and the gravity of the planets/bodies circling it. Hence why the temperature has varied over time.


The number of sunspots tells us how active the sun is through various cycles. The polarity of the sunspots changing indicates we have moved to a new 22 year Solar Cycle, this happened last week we are now in solar cycle 25. Which is predicted to be less active than the last. Leaving cycle 24 is saying goodbye to the Modern Maximum and Hallo Modern Grand Minimum.

So how do we know what cycle 25 and beyond will bring? Professor Valentina Zharkova she discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicates that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one.

But there is some good news too, Solar Irradiance will increase for the next 500 years as the earth moves closer to the sun the northern hemisphere will be warmer in summer and colder in winter. Unfortunately, we are not going to get the full benefit of this for some time.

To view the link you have to Register or Login This is her paper in nature providing you with more detail.



Above shows, the number of Sunspots observed over the past 400 years with Nasa prediction for Cycle 25.

Yes, it is going to get cooler. The immediate concern is 2028-2032 severe cold weather will impact on farming with food shortages. Intergovernmental action is needed to address the disaster. Stocks of food for people and animals need to be stored in advance of these years. Putting it into perspective, the population was a 10th in size in then the demand for food will be greater. Heres an article of what life was like.

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So taking a look at other planets is it a coincidence that the southern ice cap on mars is shrinking similar to the Arctic. No man-made CO2 there? Or the red spot on Jupiter is diminishing.

IPCC Climate models use Irradiance only for the effect of the sun on the temperature, they miss the impact of the magnetic fields. During a minimum, the cosmetic rays will breakdown the cloud cover resulting in reduced temperatures in the atmosphere. Like opening a window in a greenhouse, whilst during a maximum period cloud cover traps the heat the greenhouse effect. Statistically, during the Minimum, there is also an uptick in earthquakes and volcanos.

No, burning CO2 is not going to save us.

Below is a video of Valentina presenting to the Global Warming Policy Foundation.
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My notes from the video follow:-
o She previously presented to the Royal Astronomical Society some climate scientists were unhappy with her work and wanted her funding stopped. Why?
o When predicting Cycle 24 out of 150 models only 2 predicted it to be less active than Cycle 23. It was less active.
o 32 minutes in, Proved past and predicted future solar cycles, where we are leaving a solar maximum and entering a minimum.
o Solar Inertion motion, this means that the Sun moves pulled around by the Planets that circle it. Consequently, the planet will be warmer or colder depending on where a planet is in relation to the sun. During the Roman period, the earth was closer, hence grapes were once grown in Scotland close to Shetlands Islands.
o 1:16:00, CO2 impact on temperature is too small to measure, they can’t. Then who says CO2 is warming the planet they do not give you the instrument to measure it. It is a religion. If it is correct science I can do it you can do it she says.
o People From IPCC do not listen, they are blinkered.
o The chairman stated Science makes predictions and test them and learn from them. We no longer have a culture that allows you to present your findings. Which makes it difficult to present your findings any more.

So what evidence do we have to date that things are cooling?

The Solar Minimum changes the behaviour of the jet streams, it becomes very wavey, in the Northern Hemisphere pulling cool air from the artic and warmer air from the south. We can see this happening, the cool air in the past week in North America, while MSM report on California fires, many of the states have set record cold temperatures for October. ‘ The coldest is the weather station located at the bottom of the sink took the -35F (-37.2C) reading at approximately 6:15 AM on Monday morning, Oct 28 — beating-out the previous October record low of -33F (-36.1C) set way back in 1917 (just after weak solar cycle 14, which was similar to the cycle we’ve just experienced, 24).’

Norway is experiencing record levels of snow this early in November with a snow depth of 70 cm on flat ground. You have to go back 1922 to find more (83 cm) at the same date.

Ski resorts in Colorado opened the earliest ever this year, last weekend. Ski resorts in Australia are still getting snow.


Snow is not too far away, it is the only beginning of November. It will make its way south, Artic Ice recovering nicely. To view the link you have to Register or Login
Very interesting content. Literally high information.
Will give it the time it deserves over the weekend, but at first look it covers some things I read a lot about 20 or 25 years ago.
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  #23  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:17 PM
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Originally Posted by rhino_mik View Post
It's been largely ignored by climate change deniers for four years now.

Edited to smaller version.
Good edit.
Lot's of interesting points are being ignored, also by climate change pushers.
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  #24  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:19 PM
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This thread is about the grand solar minimum and not the effect CO2 has on the planet. I see no point going around the same arguments again and again, with the same links repeatedly posted. The same Left v Right Politics. Cult worshippers v Deniers. There are other threads this gets done in, talk about the CO2 death cult elsewhere. Which why I created a new thread away from that noise. But the noise has followed.

This is happening now and this thread is around observations that will either prove or disprove Valentina work and my shared view that the Sun predominantly controls our climate. By all means, critique her paper. I am prepared to fall on my sword, figuratively speaking.

I appreciate that if CO2 continues to rise and temperatures fall, the artic freezes over then the CO2 debate becomes meaningless. To be honest any satisfaction I might have gained will be tempered by the consequences we will be facing.

I will try not to mention CO2 going forward in this thread as it should be a CO2 free thread.
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  #25  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:21 PM
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nitrogen/oxygen mix then
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  #26  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ifill Over View Post
This thread is about the grand solar minimum and not the effect CO2 has on the planet.
It's everything to do with the effect CO2 is having on the planet when you choose to use a source of information that claims the sun is causing global warming to make your point, that has been dismissed within the scientific community as being "filled with very basic errors" and hasn't been cited once in any further scientific journals since. You can't use one scientific journal as evidence of anything without further peer reviewed studies to back it up, whether past/present or future.

You can't make a thread mentioning sources of information that claim something to the contrary and try to stifle any mention of the opposing view.
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  #27  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted by TennesseeKing View Post
It's everything to do with the effect CO2 is having on the planet when you choose to use a source of information that claims the sun is causing global warming to make your point, that has been dismissed within the scientific community as being "filled with very basic errors" and hasn't been cited once in any further scientific journals since. You can't use one scientific journal as evidence of anything without further peer reviewed studies to back it up, whether past/present or future.

You can't make a thread mentioning sources of information that claim something to the contrary and try to stifle any mention of the opposing view.
Do you think the Sun does NOT warm the planet?
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  #28  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:32 PM
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Originally Posted by cockles View Post
Do you think the Sun does NOT warm the planet?
I'm not going to give such a stupid question a proper response.
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  #29  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:36 PM
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Originally Posted by TennesseeKing View Post
I'm not going to give such a stupid question a proper response.
My question is fully reasonable on the basis of what you posted.
How do you expect people to respond when you post what you did?

Plus you have the cheek to accuse the OP not balancing his data, when you won't even begin to defend your own ludicrous asserts.
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  #30  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:42 PM
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Originally Posted by cockles View Post
My question is fully reasonable on the basis of what you posted.
How do you expect people to respond when you post what you did?

Plus you have the cheek to accuse the OP not balancing his data, when you won't even begin to defend your own ludicrous asserts.
The fact that you choose to twist my words is on you, not me. I'm making reference to what the journal is focusing on as opposed to basic rudimentary knowledge of what the sun does or does not do.

The journal he's used as the backbone of his argument is suggesting that global warming we're experiencing is predominantly driven by natural solar cycles, when it's widely acknowledged as being driven mainly by CO2 emissions. That's the point. Not once cited by any scientific journal since and been widely criticised, basically not a good source at all.

I never once suggested the sun doesn't play a part. I even posted a link at the beginning of the thread that explains something so basic. Go and have a read if you wish.
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  #31  
Old 08-11-2019, 12:12 AM
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Ken Rice of the University of Edinburgh, UK, criticised the paper for an “elementary” mistake about celestial mechanics. “It’s well known that the sun moves around the barycentre of the solar system due to the influence of the other solar system bodies, mainly Jupiter,” he says. “This does not mean, as the paper is claiming, that this then leads to changes in the distance between the sun and the Earth.”

“The claim that we will see warming in the coming centuries because the sun will move closer to the Earth as it moves around the solar system barycentre is very simply wrong,” adds Rice. He is urging the journal to withdraw the paper, and says it is embarrassing it was published.

Gavin Schmidt of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies says the paper contains egregious errors. “The sun-Earth distance does not vary with the motion of the sun-Earth system around the barycentre of the sun-Jupiter system, nor the sun-galactic centre system or any other purely mathematical reference point,” he says. He says the journal must retract the paper if it wants to retain any credibility.

For anyone who wants to know what the scientific community thinks of the scientific paper being used . ^


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Also for the actual topic the OP wishes to be discussed.

Quote:
A grand solar minimum probably isn't imminent
Although it would have a relatively small impact on the climate, it’s still an interesting question to ask whether we’re headed for another quiet solar period. Valentina Zharkova thinks so. Her team created a model that tries to predict solar activity, and suggests another solar minimum will occur from 2020 to 2055. However, other solar scientists have criticized the model as being too simple, created based on just 35 years of data, and failing to accurately reproduce past solar activity.

Ilya Usoskin, head of the Oulu Cosmic Ray Station and Vice-Director of the ReSoLVE Center of Excellence in Research, published a critique of Zharkova’s solar model making those points. Most importantly, the model fails in reproducing past known solar activity because Zharkova’s team treats the sun as a simple, predictable system like a pendulum. In reality, the sun has more random and unpredictable (in scientific terms, “stochastic”) behavior:

For example, a perfect pendulum – if you saw a few cycles of the pendulum, you can predict its behavior. However, solar activity is known to be non-stationary process, which principally cannot be predicted (the prediction horizon for solar activity is known to be 10-15 years). Deterministic prediction cannot be made because of the essential stochastic component.

Just imagine a very turbulent flow of water in a river rapid, and you throw a small wooden stick into water and trace it. Then you do it second time and third time ... each time the stick will end up in very different positions after the same time period. Its movement is unpredictable because of the turbulent stochastic component. This is exactly the situation with solar activity.

Solar expert Mike Lockwood agrees that we don’t yet have a proven predictive theory of solar behavior. He has published research examining the range of possible solar evolutions based on past periods when the Sun was in a similar state to today, but as he puts it, “that is the best that I think we can do at the present time!”

Solar physicist Paul Charbonneau at the University of Montreal also concurred with Usoskin. He told me that while scientists are working to simulate solar activity, including using simplified models like Zharkova’s,

on the standards of contemporary dynamo models theirs is extremely simple —in fact borderlining simplistic ... To extrapolate such a model outside its calibration window, you need an extra, very strong hypothesis: that the physical systems underlying the magnetic field generation retain their coherence (Phase, amplitude, etc.). As my colleague Ilya Usoskin has already explained, this is very unlikely to be the case in the case of the solar activity cycle.
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  #32  
Old 08-11-2019, 12:17 AM
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Old 08-11-2019, 06:32 AM
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Do you think the Sun does NOT warm the planet?

Is it increasing the acidity of the oceans too?
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  #34  
Old 08-11-2019, 06:40 AM
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Is it increasing the acidity of the oceans too?
Sungle use plastics?
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Old 08-11-2019, 06:50 AM
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Sungle use plastics?
Nope.
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Old 08-11-2019, 07:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ifill Over View Post
This thread is about the grand solar minimum and not the effect CO2 has on the planet. I see no point going around the same arguments again and again, with the same links repeatedly posted. The same Left v Right Politics. Cult worshippers v Deniers. There are other threads this gets done in, talk about the CO2 death cult elsewhere. Which why I created a new thread away from that noise. But the noise has followed.

This is happening now and this thread is around observations that will either prove or disprove Valentina work and my shared view that the Sun predominantly controls our climate. By all means, critique her paper. I am prepared to fall on my sword, figuratively speaking.

I appreciate that if CO2 continues to rise and temperatures fall, the artic freezes over then the CO2 debate becomes meaningless. To be honest any satisfaction I might have gained will be tempered by the consequences we will be facing.

I will try not to mention CO2 going forward in this thread as it should be a CO2 free thread.
I'm not entirely sure what point you are making?

Do you think we should stop our attempts to cut emmissions, pollution and move to greener energy?

Or are you saying that we should do those things because they're still good for the environment but that they wont stop the largest impact on climate change (the sun)?
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Old 08-11-2019, 07:30 AM
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Originally Posted by cockles View Post
My question is fully reasonable on the basis of what you posted.
How do you expect people to respond when you post what you did?

Plus you have the cheek to accuse the OP not balancing his data, when you won't even begin to defend your own ludicrous asserts.
Bollocks it was a misrepresentation and fully worthy of the response it received.
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Old 08-11-2019, 07:39 AM
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For anyone who wants to know what the scientific community thinks of the scientific paper being used . ^


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Thank you TennesseeKing, it is good for the science community to highlight their concerns. It is also easy for us all to dismiss findings that do not fit with our own bias.

With regard to her input data which has been observed and recorded for the past 400 years, it is significant a larger and a better quality set of data available than for human observed global temperatures.

Good science is learning from errors and adjusting your findings and improving your work.

We know the earth is a Goldilocks planet, to say that being closer to the sun does not warm the planet does not make logical sense to me. With regard to the Tim Rice comment, distance sun moves around the barycentre does not mean the distance change. The only way this constant could exist is if all the planetary bodies moved with the sun. Tim is careful with his words, he does not categorically say the distance is always constant with the movement of the barycentre.
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Old 08-11-2019, 07:52 AM
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Ifill Over Ifill Over is offline
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Ifill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietIfill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietIfill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietIfill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietIfill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietIfill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietIfill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietIfill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietIfill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietIfill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietIfill Over came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
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I'm not entirely sure what point you are making?

Do you think we should stop our attempts to cut emmissions, pollution and move to greener energy?

Or are you saying that we should do those things because they're still good for the environment but that they wont stop the largest impact on climate change (the sun)?
What I am saying is that I am happy to discuss pollution and mans impact on the environment elsewhere on other threads. The sun and Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) is not pollution so why discuss it here.

However, we might want to discuss the impact GSM will have or is having on our lives, keeping warm and feeding ourselves. Climbing on to the roof of your house to clear off the snow from your solar panels every couple of hours is not practical.

Last edited by Ifill Over; 08-11-2019 at 07:54 AM.
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Old 08-11-2019, 08:30 AM
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Climbing on to the roof of your house to clear off the snow from your solar panels every couple of hours is not practical.
The trains won't be running so what else is there to do?
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