Betfair trading

[ANDY FROM BR1]

Yeah I guess it helps that my commission is 2%. If anyone does do this and hasn't yet got a Paddy account can you please ensure you open it through the link in my signature....that way the Academy will also see a benefit.

[Shamone]

Is 0-0 close in the back/lays and a lower price?

[herts_palace]

I'm on - apart from the Rooney lay.

[ANDY FROM BR1]

Actually if anyone does want to do this and opened a new account via the banners we could probably come to an arrangement where I could do all the laying.

Let me know if you're interested......

[herts_palace]

Originally Posted by Shamone

Is 0-0 close in the back/lays and a lower price?

Marginal but Andy's suggestion allows you to lay more. However this option may be preferable for those with a smaller BF balance.

[ANDY FROM BR1]

Originally Posted by Shamone

Is 0-0 close in the back/lays and a lower price?

No there is more profit in 1-0 than 0-0

[ANDY FROM BR1]

By my calcs you'd be about £7 better off. But as h_p says if funds are an issue then 0-0 is acceptable

[N Herts Eagle]

Ok been playing tonight on backing and laying a few teams now have Mexico green for a small win 40p. Slovina in Englands group the odds changed tonite so thats sitting at £1, Though I may well back again and let it ride as I have taken the view in the other groups to back the third favourite where they are not playing the top 2 in the first game with the view if they win the odds wil fall enough to lay off for small profit on each team...possibly enough to green up with a profit on any team...will see. I have backed Ivory Coast in the group but bet on Portugal as the overall winner will see how that one works out

[Finbar]

Originally Posted by Finbar

Just moved all my 1.54 to 1.55 as am convinced it's on the drift, can see the logic in people thinking it could be low scoring, if I get matched then that's the target pretty much hit, hopefully will happen overnight

Now -490 / +920 waiting for £910 to be matched at 1.55

Got out for a small loss at 1.53, not the start I was hoping for! Almost too much liquidity in these markets, anyhow will stick at it, may move to o3.5 or 4.5 markets, see how it goes

[Finbar]

If I had waited an hour I would now have my profit, oh well I have my rules but it's annoying as I'm off today and would have been fine if I had slept in!

[herts_palace]

Originally Posted by Finbar

If I had waited an hour I would now have my profit, oh well I have my rules but it's annoying as I'm off today and would have been fine if I had slept in!

Which rule would you have broken Fin?

By the way just had a look at your spreadsheet. The total matched figure is that an average of the back and lay matches? I also noticed that all of the amounts match exceed your bank. Does this mean you have had to do many trades or have you done a lay of the odds on first?

[Finbar]

Basically the rule is that if I think the market may be going the other way then to cut my losses and run, I probably was a bit early though

Yeah basically the way I make more of my bank is by once I am matched at, say, 1.5 then if there is still a good chance of doing the same trade again then I put the money straight back to do it over again, managed to get £3600 matched in the Champs league final from a bank of £400

My other rule of thumb (which I broke in both the SA and France games today!) is to not overstrech the bank, so if it's laying then at the moment at 1.5 I can bet £490 to win £980 and thus pretty much double my level of profit / loss, not a problem if your backing at 1.5 and expecting the price to drop of course.

Looks like I might be ok on the France game, again am being a bit greedy having been matched for a lay at 1.48 for £1k am now waiting for it to hit 1.5, am sure I can make £6 or so at 1.49 but am (again!) sure it'll drift, also as soon as am matched at 1.5 I can try to lay again at 1.49, this creating an appearance of liquidy (1.48 now has £4k on it so no chance there but means it's unlikely to come in any time soon) and also the chance to maybe get £1.5k matched

Keeps me off the streets

[Finbar]

Nice, panic over, money should be recovered and target hit thanks to the France game (I sense the bbs as a whole was concerned )

I think trading under / over 1.5 might be a whole lot easier than I thought, just wait for the massive backs or lays and then use those as protection and back and lay accordingly

I had £14 (after commission) guaranteed, hopefully that will be more by kick off

^^^still greedy

[Finbar]

£22 profit on that match which is about 4% profit on the day, lost £2.50ish on the first game, would have been level but for the 2nd goal

Summary of bets on the France game (think this should be legible)

Back
Under 1.5 Goals 2.88 £780.00 profit / liability £1,466.40
Over 1.5 Goals 1.52 £2,017.00 profit / liability £1,045.63

Lay
Under 1.5 Goals 2.9 £984.00 profit / liability £1,866.67
Over 1.5 Goals 1.5 £2,440.28 profit / liability £1,226.18

[ANDY FROM BR1]

Originally Posted by ANDY FROM BR1

Here's one for you guys, to make an easy £25-£30. Have £100 on USA to beat England 1-0 with Paddy, lay that on BF and lay Rooney in the 'to score' market on Betfair (it's not priced up yet, but will be around 2.1-2.2, and more than likely shorter) as they are offering upto £100 cashback on losing CS bets if Rooney scores.

After opening up at silly prices for pennies Rooney's price is now coming into the expected 2.1-2.2 range. As well as getting just under £2k on the 0-1 I also backed Rooney to score £4k at prices between 2.3 and 2.4 to lay-off.

I expect the price to contract further in the 15 mins before ko, though there could be a bump before hand whilst the inevitable mass of arbers panic to get their bets off. With quite a lot to lay I'm in the q at prices between 2.0 and 2.2. If you only have a small amount to lay I would suggest waiting as near to ko as possible.

[ANDY FROM BR1]

For phone bets you can actually now have £200 so a further £100 on 0-1, or 0-0, depending on your bank, is possible.

[herts_palace]

Originally Posted by ANDY FROM BR1

After opening up at silly prices for pennies Rooney's price is now coming into the expected 2.1-2.2 range. As well as getting just under £2k on the 0-1 I also backed Rooney to score £4k at prices between 2.3 and 2.4 to lay-off.

I expect the price to contract further in the 15 mins before ko, though there could be a bump before hand whilst the inevitable mass of arbers panic to get their bets off. With quite a lot to lay I'm in the q at prices between 2.0 and 2.2. If you only have a small amount to lay I would suggest waiting as near to ko as possible.

Nice one

I was not able to watch the England game yesterday and didn't have internet access after lunchtime so I had to get my Rooney bets off in advance.Fortunately I correctly predicted that the Rooney would fall and was able to get some money matched at 2.55 early on Friday. The key then was to predict how far it would fall or accept the lay at 2.3 or thereabouts yesterday morning. Fortunately my lay at 2.14 was accepted so I was able to make £24.58 on the whole bet.

Thanks once again.

[Finbar]

Disaster! Monumental error made yesterday in the England game, backed at about 1.43, laying all of my bank, wanted to back back at 1.44 but the price kept falling, evenutally a got out at 1.36. Thought it would be low scoring so rather than level out my reds I kept a green of about £60 and a red of £80 hoping for 0-0 at half time or something like that so I could get out for a small loss. An early England goal followed by a massive error by Green (ironic name considering what his error did to my betfair balance!) put paid to that.

Then this morning tried to get some back in the Slovenia game but ended up losing another £22, so bank is now down to £410 from £510

Think I got a bit over confident and am now trying to work out how to avoid that in future. I think essentially I'm just trying to make one or two ticks but risking losing 7 or 8 as happened above.

The reason why 1.5 market has worked for me so well in the past has been it's lack of movement, with the lower goal expectation with world cup games it is a much more volatile market than when I do it in the premiership. That said 1.38 wouldn't normally be an unusual market, the 1.62 lay I made in the Slovenia game was not trading but gambling.

Going to see how I go with the o3.5 market and only to 1.5 when there is a heavy favourite like in the Brazil / Spain / Holland games coming up.

Maybe it's not the certain winner I thought it was.

Trying the o3.5 market on the Aus game tonight, back on the horse and all that

[N Herts Eagle]

Been away most of the weekend but had some bets in the games I have watched and had Internet access......
South Africa v Mexico up 2.85 a lovely game at the max risk £4 during the game had bets riding on both SA and Mexico which in the second half.. converted to the draw...this was helped massivly by SA scoring first as the screen was green for any result in the second half
Germany v Australia...thanks Finbar during the game had bets on 1.5 +and 2,5+ with a small laid off bet on under 4,5 so at the risk of £2 made 90p
Have to offset this by a £2 loss sometime on Serbia had the £2 bet on to win group the idea being if they won the first game then would lay off the theroy would have worked if they had won.
So for the £25 bank after the weekend up £1,70 or plus 6.8%
THe key games for me now are Paraquay a win would set up the first of a guarenteed £1 on any World Cup winner watching the odds fall for unexpected first game winners or lay off if they lose but they qualify. A win for Cameroon to lay of £2 in the group ...the next is the Ivory Coast (should be able to lay off the group) or Portugal should add another £1 win for any World Cup winner so any result but a draw....then a Holland win as World Cup winners

[JamTheEagle]

I really am tempted to switch my funds to my betfair account and get on this back and lay malarkey. Truth be told I've never really done it so am a bit hesitant, is it worth it?