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  #44641  
Old 18-09-2020, 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted by se1eagle View Post
Unbelievably it looks like they're going to be sending patients with COVID back to care homes yet again

To view the link you have to Register or Login
I know in the care home where my wife worked they refused a few months ago.
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  #44642  
Old 18-09-2020, 08:30 AM
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The media noise on Covid numbers, potential lockdown etc has really ramped yesterday and today.

Really interested to listen to Hancock this morning on Radio 4, he actually clearly answered the question what is the strategy:

1) suppress the virus and keep numbers low enough to keep education and the economy open

2) suppress while waiting for the 'cavalry' to arrive. The Cavalry being mass immediate testing, effective treatment and a vaccine 'the only way the human race will defeat this virus'

It wouldn't be my strategy but that's immaterial, I am reassured and glad that they have a strategy and have communicated it. As a country we need to understand the strategy and do our best to help it succeed - whether we agree with it or not
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  #44643  
Old 18-09-2020, 08:37 AM
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Having a strategy is good, having policies and implementing them is the real test, it is here I have reservations. The track record of this government of bungling everything they touch does not give confidence.
When I say bungling everything I obviously exclude cronyism and corruption.
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  #44644  
Old 18-09-2020, 08:39 AM
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Youngest has just had a zoom call with his class. 17 in school, 13 at home isolating after coming in contact with someone who has tested positive.

Fun times.
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  #44645  
Old 18-09-2020, 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by SE25 exile View Post
Well some of what you say is true. However, I don't buy the opinion that this government has compelling data on who is, and how many are, requesting a test for spurious reasons. If people are lying and asking for tests frivolously, how is it possible to know this? I suspect it is a totally fabricated reason to excuse incompetence and a lack of planning, and to deflect blame. I notice that no statistical evidence to support the government's, and your view now I see, that this is the case. If you or they, do have evidence, why not share it, and then we can have a more meaningful discussion.
I don’t imagine they have - because they are not checking - so how can they.

However consider looking at it another way. we have a self assessment regime for tax - if you stopped checking whether people were self assessing correctly, tax revenues plummeted compared to our European equivalents who had similar circumstances which we can test in other ways, would you assume that there was an issue, or would you decide actually the economy is ****ed (even though there was no evidence at all that it and spunk a fortune on economic recovery measures.

We have a self assessment system with no checks, people are for whatever reason incentivised to abuse the system. That’s basically as open as it gets to a system being abused.

If testing is important, then addressing that issue has to be the focus, because otherwise it will become even greater an issue when the Winter season really kicks in
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  #44646  
Old 18-09-2020, 09:01 AM
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The opacity of testing statistics should be a bigger scandal.

80,000 people tested per day at the moment. A far cry from the 250k, 375k or whatever they try to spin - related to total tests rather than people. Everybody knows this isn't easy but stop boasting about artificially inflated numbers.
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  #44647  
Old 18-09-2020, 09:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Poosence View Post
The opacity of testing statistics should be a bigger scandal.

80,000 people tested per day at the moment. A far cry from the 250k, 375k or whatever they try to spin - related to total tests rather than people. Everybody knows this isn't easy but stop boasting about artificially inflated numbers.
Yes, and I think this answers AH's last response nicely too.
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Old 18-09-2020, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Adlerhorst View Post
I think you mean the tracing system, not the testing system. We have more than enough capacity, far more than is needed for the policy position. We have c250k tier 1 and tier 2 capacity. Weíve had 200k+ tier 1 and 2 capacity since May. The testing usage has been increasing steadily since the start of May, thereís not been a huge surge since schools went back in September. The usage was increasing when schools were shut and during the holidays.

Again we have more capacity than our equivalents in the EU. We have a lower level of incidence than some (FR/ES). We have an issue on capacity and other equivalent countries do not. Something is very very off.

Itís not a case of blaming people. Thereís a self assessment system that is open for abuse and people are scared and will abuse it as a consequence, or their employer might say get a test before they are allowed back, and they have to lie to get that test so they can go back to work. Either way the system is abused. The point is to fix the abuse of the system, not to simply build unnecessary capacity to allow for the abuse. Weíre going to need additional capacity for real. need as it is. Building capacity for a problem that isnít real is akin to TrumpĎs Mexican wall fiasco, a vast amount of money wasted to fix a perceived problem rather than using that money to address the real issue.

Telling people to stop abusing the system will not work. Because it never ever does. Every self assessment system needs checks to ensure it is not abused - and ours doesnít have any, and so it is being abused. That needs to be addressed or we will fail to address the capacity issue. Itís only going to get worse over winter (incidence of symptoms, so consequently the impact of the system abuse)
Even if you charge this abuse will still happen. SSP is so shit many will have to abuse the system to get back to work.
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Old 18-09-2020, 09:51 AM
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Do a lot of schools have a 2 week half term in Oct ? Ours do but was under the impression we were one of very few areas that did. An indication of that is we booked some flights to Portugal for the first week of our 2 week half term and the flights were £80. The following week, the main Oct half term week, they were £500.

It looks like something akin to Marchís lockdown is coming though thatís for sure.
Canít find the stats so Iím going to stick with Ďa lotí. More than Ďsomeí, less than Ďmostí.
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  #44650  
Old 18-09-2020, 09:54 AM
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We have a self assessment system with no checks, people are for whatever reason incentivised to abuse the system. That’s basically as open as it gets to a system being abused.
Out of interest, what are the scenarios where people are abusing the system? If it's in order to get a negative result due to symptoms so they can work and pay their rent, is that unreasonable? Shouldn't we have the capacity by now to cope with that?

It'd be interesting to see the numbers broken down, particularly age. Anecdotally to me, it feels logical that testing of kids with colds who have been sent home from school is contributing more to demand than spurious testing requests.
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  #44651  
Old 18-09-2020, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by sheepy View Post
Can you really see a "couple of weeks" making a difference?

Fundamentally the nature of social interactions is changing as we head into winter with these being far more likely to take place indoors.

The second we lockdown that'll be the end of social interactions until well into the new year. Personally that's not a price I'm willing to pay but I guess that's not a choice I get to have a say in (said as someone with a decent immunity).
I can see it making some difference. If you have by that point say 75000 infected and the R number is 1.8 then that will give 135000 infections, then 243000 followed by 437,400.

Lock up the 75000 for a fortnight and you might get 90000 or 60,000 and a slowly increasing R number over the following weeks. It will definitely slow the spread which is the point isn't it? We aren't and never have been trying to eradicate the thing; just slow it down.
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  #44652  
Old 18-09-2020, 10:13 AM
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Getting a Covid test without good reason is hardly comparable to avoiding tax. I just don't think that many people are abusing the system. The system itself is clearly flawed. It's so easy to let the Government off the hook and blame it on selfish bastards, but I'm sure almost everyone who is booking a test is doing so for what they deem to be good reasons.
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  #44653  
Old 18-09-2020, 10:14 AM
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The fortnight half term like they have in the private schools may help but not if large numbers take the opportunity for travel long distances to get autumn sunshine.
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  #44654  
Old 18-09-2020, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by SE25 exile View Post
Yes, and I think this answers AH's last response nicely too.
The last daily people tested total That is known was 80k when the tests were registered as 140k. That 140k included tier 4 which is where a lot of the double counting is known to be a problem.

I specifically have not included tier 4 at all in my numbers.

Even if you assume every single test in tier one and two is double counted you’re at 120k tests. So 50% more than the 80k claim.

We know over the summer that demand for tier 2 tests consistently increased. We also know that symptoms to hospitalisation is five to eight days. So what we should have seen over the summer is an increase in hospitalisations. We didn’t.
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Old 18-09-2020, 10:29 AM
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Getting a Covid test without good reason is hardly comparable to avoiding tax. I just don't think that many people are abusing the system. The system itself is clearly flawed. It's so easy to let the Government off the hook and blame it on selfish bastards, but I'm sure almost everyone who is booking a test is doing so for what they deem to be good reasons.
Itís not about whether itís a morally comparable act, itís about whether the a similar system (self assessment) system is effective or fundamentally flawed.

And I am sort of baffled as how pointing out the government has designed a system that is so open to abuse, and then scaring the bejesus out of half your population, and then very publicly created a situation which says ignoring the rules is fine, is somehow letting the government off.

All I am interested in is addressing the right problem effectively. Simply saying ďoh itís just we donít have enough capacity build moreĒ without addressing the cause of that capacity issue going to make the problem worse when the winter virus symptoms kick in and lots more people demand tests.
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  #44656  
Old 18-09-2020, 10:33 AM
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Anecdotally to me, it feels logical that testing of kids with colds who have been sent home from school is contributing more to demand than spurious testing requests.
Remember also, that for every test you book for someone with symptoms, you are invited to get tests for everyone else in the household. This is not selfishness, this is not fraud, this is what the algorithm invites you to do. Or at least it is when I booked tests for my parents a few weeks back.

So for every kid with a cold, that could be easily turning into 3, 4, 5 tests for the whole family
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Old 18-09-2020, 10:35 AM
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Itís not about whether itís a morally comparable act, itís about whether the a similar system (self assessment) system is effective or fundamentally flawed.
I wasn't talking about morality. I meant there is clearly a far greater incentive to pay less tax than there is to stick a swab down your throat for fun.
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  #44658  
Old 18-09-2020, 10:38 AM
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Remember also, that for every test you book for someone with symptoms, you are invited to get tests for everyone else in the household. This is not selfishness, this is not fraud, this is what the algorithm invites you to do. Or at least it is when I booked tests for my parents a few weeks back.

So for every kid with a cold, that could be easily turning into 3, 4, 5 tests for the whole family
Iíve just checked this on the online application. I wasnít.
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Old 18-09-2020, 10:39 AM
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And I am sort of baffled as how pointing out the government has designed a system that is so open to abuse, and then scaring the bejesus out of half your population, and then very publicly created a situation which says ignoring the rules is fine, is somehow letting the government off.
I think it's your language (and the language of others) that is the problem here. Talking about abusing the system and calling people selfish is equating people who are worried about their health / livelihoods and maybe ordering tests when they have symptoms that don't quite align with the big 3 on the algorithm, with benefits cheats and tax evaders.
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Old 18-09-2020, 10:41 AM
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Iíve just checked this on the online application. I wasnít.
From memory, it asks you a good way into the process, once you've booked your initial test. It's also highly possible that they've changed the algorithm in recent days for obvious reasons.
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